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Author Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)  (Read 907160 times)
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SlipperySlope
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November 12, 2014, 04:23:18 PM
 #5801

Here is the one-week resolution Bitcoin Price chart with support and resistance trendlines that I drew. The recent rally from $318 should encounter resistance at $460.

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November 12, 2014, 04:37:57 PM
 #5802

Here is the one-week resolution Bitcoin Price chart with support and resistance trendlines that I drew. The recent rally from $318 should encounter resistance at $460.

>image snip<

or not, if it is a breakout. We were so oversold on your trendline and any other trendline that I saw that we might bounce like in 2011.
SlipperySlope
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November 12, 2014, 05:16:59 PM
 #5803

Here is the one-week resolution Bitcoin Price chart with support and resistance trendlines that I drew. The recent rally from $318 should encounter resistance at $460.

>image snip<

or not, if it is a breakout. We were so oversold on your trendline and any other trendline that I saw that we might bounce like in 2011.

Additionally, the number of transactions excluding popular addresses, as reported by Blockchain.info, is at a relatively high level. I am hoping for a breakout above the trend, which would indicate a powerful rally.
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November 12, 2014, 05:24:23 PM
 #5804

Additionally, the number of transactions excluding popular addresses, as reported by Blockchain.info, is at all time high.
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November 13, 2014, 04:11:23 AM
 #5805

Huobi reports $467 currently while Bitstamp is below at $442. Here is the one-day resolution chart of Bitstamp prices showing the rally approaching the $470 level where I drew the resistance trend line down from the November 2013 peak. We are looking for a breakthrough to the upside past $470, which would indicate a strong rally.

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November 13, 2014, 06:52:17 PM
 #5806

Huobi reports $467 currently while Bitstamp is below at $442. Here is the one-day resolution chart of Bitstamp prices showing the rally approaching the $470 level where I drew the resistance trend line down from the November 2013 peak. We are looking for a breakthrough to the upside past $470, which would indicate a strong rally.


...or not.
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November 14, 2014, 03:26:28 PM
 #5807

Weekly Parabolic SAR just flipped the side! - Hyena


I've been expecting this since June/July 2014 but it took a bit longer than I thought. Perhaps the ongoing parabolic rise also lasts a bit longer than everyone expects? Cheesy Anyway, this is massively bullish indicator but first we need a couple of more dots on the chart confirming it. As always, the next few weeks are critical.

I have drawn some imaginary pSar indicator dots to the below chart to visualize the future prices.

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November 17, 2014, 09:19:53 PM
 #5808

50 000 bitcoin auction... i expected bitcoin to drop hard, but it seems it didn't..
Wondering if the drop because of this news-item is still coming.
(How many bitcoins were in the last auction - was it 30 000?)

The Case for Bitcoin:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4882599.msg43979219#msg43979219


[am a noob]
update 2018: not total newb anymore i guess- now turned megalomaniac
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November 17, 2014, 10:08:02 PM
 #5809

50 000 bitcoin auction... i expected bitcoin to drop hard, but it seems it didn't..
Wondering if the drop because of this news-item is still coming.
(How many bitcoins were in the last auction - was it 30 000?)

Why are you assuming this? Do you think every bidder has time to prepare? What if they wish to remain anonymous? They cant bid...

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November 18, 2014, 01:49:11 AM
 #5810

50 000 bitcoin auction... i expected bitcoin to drop hard, but it seems it didn't..
Wondering if the drop because of this news-item is still coming.
(How many bitcoins were in the last auction - was it 30 000?)

The orderbook is too deep right now on BFX to support a fast movement downward -- somebody would more or less need to go nuts with the sell off or, more likely, the floors will move down gradually.

Why we go down:
1. The price will be suppressed in this auction because nobody wants to overbid like Draper did and turn into a punch line;
2. If the coins are bought at below market, there might be a move to secure some of the gains.

Why we go up:
1. Anybody buying that many coins would see slippage if they went into the market;
2. Anybody buying that many coins likely believes in the value of Bitcoins; and
3. And anybody who believes that much and wants to avoid slippage may assume the same of other bidders so you get an auction up effect.

In the end, nobody knows. Generally, 50,000 coins that weren't available for use suddenly being available for use is intrinsically bearish -- but then again, it is less than a quarter percent of 21 million -- so not too wildly bearish.
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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November 18, 2014, 01:56:50 AM
 #5811

50 000 bitcoin auction... i expected bitcoin to drop hard, but it seems it didn't..
Wondering if the drop because of this news-item is still coming.
(How many bitcoins were in the last auction - was it 30 000?)

The orderbook is too deep right now on BFX to support a fast movement downward -- somebody would more or less need to go nuts with the sell off or, more likely, the floors will move down gradually.

Why we go down:
1. The price will be suppressed in this auction because nobody wants to overbid like Draper did and turn into a punch line;
2. If the coins are bought at below market, there might be a move to secure some of the gains.

Why we go up:
1. Anybody buying that many coins would see slippage if they went into the market;
2. Anybody buying that many coins likely believes in the value of Bitcoins; and
3. And anybody who believes that much and wants to avoid slippage may assume the same of other bidders so you get an auction up effect.

In the end, nobody knows. Generally, 50,000 coins that weren't available for use suddenly being available for use is intrinsically bearish -- but then again, it is less than a quarter percent of 21 million -- so not too wildly bearish.


I thought that the feds had seized about 144k BTC from Ross Ulbricht's alleged personal stash?  Well, anyhow, this auction is for only about 1/3 of that quantity.

 Anybody know the reason or a better description of the facts?




1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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November 18, 2014, 06:53:29 AM
 #5812

50 000 bitcoin auction... i expected bitcoin to drop hard, but it seems it didn't..
Wondering if the drop because of this news-item is still coming.
(How many bitcoins were in the last auction - was it 30 000?)

The orderbook is too deep right now on BFX to support a fast movement downward -- somebody would more or less need to go nuts with the sell off or, more likely, the floors will move down gradually.

Why we go down:
1. The price will be suppressed in this auction because nobody wants to overbid like Draper did and turn into a punch line;
2. If the coins are bought at below market, there might be a move to secure some of the gains.

Why we go up:
1. Anybody buying that many coins would see slippage if they went into the market;
2. Anybody buying that many coins likely believes in the value of Bitcoins; and
3. And anybody who believes that much and wants to avoid slippage may assume the same of other bidders so you get an auction up effect.

In the end, nobody knows. Generally, 50,000 coins that weren't available for use suddenly being available for use is intrinsically bearish -- but then again, it is less than a quarter percent of 21 million -- so not too wildly bearish.


I thought that the feds had seized about 144k BTC from Ross Ulbricht's alleged personal stash?  Well, anyhow, this auction is for only about 1/3 of that quantity.

 Anybody know the reason or a better description of the facts?





This is the reason, according to coindesk:

USMS spokesperson Lynzey Donahue told CoinDesk that the USMS intends to hold additional auctions for the remainder of Ulbricht's bitcoin holdings in the months ahead, but that it has yet to set dates for any subsequent sales. When asked, Donahue acknowledged that the auctions were being held over an undisclosed period of time to avoid potential market problems.

http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-latest-bitcoin-auction-timed-avoid-market-disruptions/

Bitmixer sucks

Bit-X sucks
sidhujag
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November 18, 2014, 08:08:39 PM
 #5813

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k
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November 18, 2014, 08:12:07 PM
Last edit: November 18, 2014, 08:50:22 PM by Biodom
 #5814

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

They have only 144k coins, so it is not that they can repeat it many times over.
I believe historically it would be looked at just as selling gold by the Bank of England at $250 is currently being looked at (with gold above $1000).
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November 18, 2014, 08:40:27 PM
 #5815

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
bassclef
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November 18, 2014, 09:39:07 PM
 #5816

I don't think the auctions will have a huge effect on the price. Why would you go to the trouble to buy all the coins at auction if only to dump them at market with slippage?

No, these buyers are strong hands. If anything some of these coins will get distributed to weak hands during the next exponential run up and you won't even notice.
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November 18, 2014, 09:41:26 PM
 #5817

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/bitcoin-auction-winner-draper-to-bid-again-in-december.html
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November 18, 2014, 10:00:02 PM
 #5818

I don't think the auctions will have a huge effect on the price. Why would you go to the trouble to buy all the coins at auction if only to dump them at market with slippage?

Buy low.  Sell higher.  Profit.

Quote
No, these buyers are strong hands. If anything some of these coins will get distributed to weak hands during the next exponential run up and you won't even notice.

"Next exponential run up" Cheesy  Good one, bro.
OK, OK, now that I'm done laughing, how will these coins "get distributed to weak hands"?
solex
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November 18, 2014, 11:16:10 PM
 #5819


Barry Silbert keen not to be outdone a 2nd time:

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/534759438906040320

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November 19, 2014, 12:43:25 AM
 #5820


I don't know where you get that Barry is keen not to be outdone.  He is not buying but setting up a "syndicate" like last time. 

It seems most everybody in his syndicate last time wanted to low ball and make a quick profit.  If this auction goes like the last one bidding market price will not win.  They may have learned from last time but being that the syndicate is made up of many buy orders it's not like any individual of the syndicate would have incentive to  buy over market because of slippage.

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