rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[NotLambchop]

...We play a moment and then we die. And bad guys go to hell, yet, 'fore that blessed day, they fart through silk, and fattened thus, they fin'ly shuffle off this mortal coil.

Whoa, that's Shakespeare, ain't it?

[1714251638]

1714251638

[1714251638]

1714251638

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...We play a moment and then we die. And bad guys go to hell, yet, til that blessed day, they fart through silk before they shuffle off this mortal coil.

Whoa, that's Shakespeare, ain't it?

This is the quality thread

[chopstick]

Want to give us any price predictions, rpietila?

[windpath]

Tim Draper hangin' w/ Estonian Prime Minister

hmmmmmm....

[rpietila]

Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?

Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.

It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.

Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.

[SmoothCurves]

Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?

Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.

It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.

Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.

Amen to that. I'm still shocked that Monero is so cheap right now given the technological breakthrough it represents.

[NotLambchop]

...
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. ...

That capital "T" in "quality TA," what's it stand for again?

[0x3d]

...
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. ...

That capital "T" in "quality TA," what's it stand for again?

Seems to mean "traumatized" in this case We were supposed to be at 300.000$/BTC in about 3 weeks after all. Well at least it almost fits if we're talking price per kBTC, hehe.

Other than that I can only agree with both of you. Yes, it's gonna be shaky until around christmas (big triangle ending around that time) and yes, I was expecting something more tangible, numeric but still better than nada. Thx Risto.

[Odalv]

Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?

Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.

It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.

Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.

Do you really think Monero is future ?
 - there is less than 1% than bitcoin will fail in next 5 years
 - there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years

Edit:
Aircraft carrier(bitcoin) vs sailboat(monero ... few orders of magnitude less secure, order of magnitude bigger blockchain, tiny market cap.)

[JayJuanGee]

...
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. ...

That capital "T" in "quality TA," what's it stand for again?

Seems to mean "traumatized" in this case We were supposed to be at 300.000$/BTC in about 3 weeks after all. Well at least it almost fits if we're talking price per kBTC, hehe.

Other than that I can only agree with both of you. Yes, it's gonna be shaky until around christmas (big triangle ending around that time) and yes, I was expecting something more tangible, numeric but still better than nada. Thx Risto.

At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no? 

$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase.  He did NOT say that.

Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.

Personally, I think that Risto is much more bullish than me regarding his view of the BTC price trendline.... that influences his vision of future price and the timeline for such.

Based on recent downward manipulation of BTC prices and attempts at removal of confidence from BTC and some recent hesitancies in BTC adoption, including the seeming reluctancies of some big players to jump in, I think that the BTC price trendline going forward is less steep  and lower than what Risto is suggesting (also I do NOT believe that math and logic works to predict future human behavior when dealing with economics and politics etc). 

In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range.  And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now.  Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC.  and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..

[nioc]

Monero is junk.

Just another scamcoin that tried to ride the anon coins fad like CLOAK, CRYPT, RZR and similar fails/outright scams.

If you think that with putting money in Monero you made a great investment be ready to watch all your funds go out the window (as it probably, partially, already happened).

Behind the gimmicky anon features, it's basically a clone of BTC. it has the same fundamental issues.

So:
If BTC survives, a real functioning anon feature will be implemented in BTC (DarkWallet is being developed...) --> Monero will be obsolete
If BTC dies because the world doesn't want what it has to offer for whatever reason  --> Monero will be obsolete


Not trolling. Just saying what I think because money is at stake.

Saying what you think as opposed to saying what you know?

It's not a clone of btc but has a different code.  99% of alt coins are btc clones.  Some "anon" coins are indeed gimmicky, Monero is not.  See what Mr Maxwell has to say.

Privacy features will not be implemented in btc but will be added on top of as per your example.  Monero has more and better privacy features than can be gotten with dark wallet.  Privacy is inherent in Monero now with no need to do anything.  There is more to Monero besides privacy. 

It is much easier to make a privacy coin have a transparent option if you choose to do so than it is to make a transparent coin a private one.

I don't believe privacy is a fad.  How can privacy be a fad?

I guess to some extent in the alt coin world anon is/was a fad.  What I believe differentiates Monero is the intent of the developers.  They are not trying to cash in on a fad but instead are building something that is needed.  The devs are doing so with a goal, a plan and competence.


What will the future bring? 

[0x3d]

At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no?  

$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase.  He did NOT say that.

Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.

[...]

In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range.  And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now.  Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC.  and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..

Oh sorry, I didn't realize I was Risto's personal post summarizer or that his tiny post even needed a summary. And sure I'm too dumb to know that 300 + "00" isn't 300.000. "Delusion of grandeur" much? (I don't remember who said that to Risto around that time but it kept sticking )

The 300k I was referring to was risto's own prediction from ~18 months ago or so. But now that you mention it, I think that prediction was meant to come true at the end of last year, didn't it?

I agree with your broad prediction however, 3-13k within 1-8 months seems very plausible. I'm betting on 6300$ around March-April 2015 then again a year of descent back to around 1500$ until moon 3.0.

[BitChick]

Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?

Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.

It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.

Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.

Do you really think Monero is future ?
 - there is less than 1% than bitcoin will fail in next 5 years
 - there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years

Edit:
Aircraft carrier(bitcoin) vs sailboat(monero ... few orders of magnitude less secure, order of magnitude bigger blockchain, tiny market cap.)

Risto,  you know I am one of your biggest fans on here.  You have been very wise and helpful to me during the past year and half that I have been involved with BTC and I am hugely grateful for that.

I have similar questions with Monero though.  I guess the thing that comes to my mind is that you, being involved with BTC earlier than the vast majority, are truly an innovator at heart.  We could even call you "visionary."  You certainly hit the nail on the head with your insight into what BTC could be and that paid huge rewards for you.  But being a visionary and innovative can also mean that you are a bit more of a risk taker at heart than some of us are.  It seems that you like to dive head first into whatever it is that you see as being a great thing while some of us just put our toe in the water or watch how it works out for you first.   Part of me thinks I should buy some Monero because it could become something (and because you were certainly right about BTC) but in reality I am not quite the visionary you are.  Also, I haven't even dabbled in LTC or any other altcoin for that matter, mostly because there are really no easy ways to purchase them.  The only sites we use to buy and sell BTC are US based and that limits us quite a bit in that.   I figure that if any of the alt coins become valuable the chances are that BTC will too because BTC is the first one to gain traction and we can always purchase some if and when they become more readily available.  Yes the ROI will be less then but that is why the innovators and risk takers are the ones who have earned those rewards by taking those early risks.

All that said, I am happy to read that you still envision 100x growth for BTC down the road at some point.  Patience will be rewarded at some point I hope.

[bitcoin_bagholder]

Hey Risto. I don't mean to steal your time but it seems like forever since you last posted some quality TA in here. Would you mind sharing what you think 2015 will bring?

Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. Once they have completed the current round, the price is let to rise. The exponential trendline will hold. The price rise may be in the order of 100x before the year is over.

It is good to be open for developments, like privacy-centric altcoins. Currently Monero is still my pick, nothing better has come (same with Bitcoin btw. even if price goes to $100, if there is nothing better, why should you worry?). Monero marketcap is 1:1,000 of Bitcoin, so it is very cheap to take a hedge bet.

Crypto Kingdom will conquer the world.

Do you really think Monero is future ?
 - there is less than 1% than bitcoin will fail in next 5 years
 - there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years

Edit:
Aircraft carrier(bitcoin) vs sailboat(monero ... few orders of magnitude less secure, order of magnitude bigger blockchain, tiny market cap.)

Risto,  you know I am one of your biggest fans on here.  You have been very wise and helpful to me during the past year and half that I have been involved with BTC and I am hugely grateful for that.

I have similar questions with Monero though.  I guess the thing that comes to my mind is that you, being involved with BTC earlier than the vast majority, are truly an innovator at heart.  We could even call you "visionary."  You certainly hit the nail on the head with your insight into what BTC could be and that paid huge rewards for you.  But being a visionary and innovative can also mean that you are a bit more of a risk taker at heart than some of us are.  It seems that you like to dive head first into whatever it is that you see as being a great thing while some of us just put our toe in the water or watch how it works out for you first.   Part of me thinks I should buy some Monero because it could become something (and because you were certainly right about BTC) but in reality I am not quite the visionary you are.  Also, I haven't even dabbled in LTC or any other altcoin for that matter, mostly because there are really no easy ways to purchase them.  The only sites we use to buy and sell BTC are US based and that limits us quite a bit in that.   I figure that if any of the alt coins become valuable the chances are that BTC will too because BTC is the first one to gain traction and we can always purchase some if and when they become more readily available.  Yes the ROI will be less then but that is why the innovators and risk takers are the ones who have earned those rewards by taking those early risks.

All that said, I am happy to read that you still envision 100x growth for BTC down the road at some point.  Patience will be rewarded at some point I hope.

I'm not recommending litecoin but there are many, many places where bitcoin can be traded for it (most exchanges). That's how most people obtain litecoin.

[bitcoin_bagholder]

^^^

Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.

[BitChick]

^^^

Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.

Yes of course, but some of us only buy and sell using US based sellers that do not sell or trade in LTC or any other coin yet.

[wpalczynski]

So send your BTC to wherever exchange you want to buy Monero from and buy it.  Not sure which exchanges trading monero are outside of the US but Im sure someone here knows.

^^^

Same goes for most if not all alts. Bitcoin can be traded for them.

Yes of course, but some of us only buy and sell using US based sellers that do not sell or trade in LTC or any other coin yet.

[cbeast]

Since side chains are now an inevitability, a Monero clone is a likely early candidate because it is mined and offers anonymity.

[JayJuanGee]

At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no?  

$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase.  He did NOT say that.

Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.

[...]

In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range.  And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now.  Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC.  and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..

Oh sorry, I didn't realize I was Risto's personal post summarizer or that his tiny post even needed a summary. And sure I'm too dumb to know that 300 + "00" isn't 300.000. "Delusion of grandeur" much? (I don't remember who said that to Risto around that time but it kept sticking )

The 300k I was referring to was risto's own prediction from ~18 months ago or so. But now that you mention it, I think that prediction was meant to come true at the end of last year, didn't it?

I agree with your broad prediction however, 3-13k within 1-8 months seems very plausible. I'm betting on 6300$ around March-April 2015 then again a year of descent back to around 1500$ until moon 3.0.

Look Ox3d, you and I largely agree on the general direction of bitcoin, and I do NOT expect that any of us are really soothe sayers regarding these price prediction matters.  There are bigger whale manipulators who can probably influence the direction of bitcoin prices in the short term; however, they may or may NOT be able to totally control its price direction in the long term... especially if we may once again strike upon upward momentum that causes the flooding in of money that is likely waiting on the sidelines for the next run-up in BTC prices. 


Accordingly, so what if some of us get wrong our predictions.  Some predictions are more bearish and some are more bullish and some are based on more logic and facts than others, and so what if Risto is more bullish than a large majority of us.  There are things about Risto that bother me, including his sometimes cock-sure way of expressing some of his predictions or even his past performance and some arrogance of attempting to distinguish himself from others, which sometimes results in denigrations of others.    Also, sometimes, I think he puts too much certainty in terms of mathematical models - and maybe a few other bragging aspects of his personality.  Nonetheless, Risto frequently provides really decent analysis and fairly decent explanations concerning why and how he is arriving at his prediction(s).  So what if he is wrong and even wrong by magnitudes and wrong in timing and even a little irritating because he seems to be pumping Monero in threads that are largely BTC (even if they happen to be his own threads)!!!!!

[nioc]

Since side chains are now an inevitability, a Monero clone is a likely early candidate because it is mined and offers anonymity.

As I understand it using something like Monero via a side chain compromises your privacy to a certain extent.  Sorry for the lack of detail as I don't have links handy to where it was discussed.  The future will unfold   I never know what or when my next meal is