rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

Risto is and will always be just a speculator. His other delusions are just that.

According to definition, "speculation" is an act of foreseeing that an asset has a greater EV than PV+carry cost.

Being "just" a speculator is a decent income if you are even a little successful.

I agree. It will be very lucrative for you I think.

But if you think you are a builder or even capable organizer of building of high tech, pleeeaaasssseeee...

The recent events have again showed how brilliant a game designer and capable a gamemaster I am (traits I never doubted having) but also how I suck with high tech (which I never was comfortable with).

So yes, replying to anontrolls is still something I do, despite knowing that it is needless and actually that we should grow a culture where negative comments by anons like you are just deleted, positive contribution is treasured. Only the members who have something at stake should be "allowed" to write negatively. Starting today 

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[windpath]

Only the members who have something at stake should be "allowed" to write negatively. Starting today 

Ahhh, uptopia.

I'd argue we all have something at stake (humanity).

I think most of us came to bitcoin with a cautious, or even pessimistic eye.

Here is a trend I'd love to have some data on:

% of all negative sentiment members that have changed their tune.

It's never to late to join the party folks, but if you wait to long all the good appetizers will be gone

[NotLambchop]

...
It's never to late to join the party folks, but if you wait to long all the good appetizers will be gone

Who cares about appetizers when the main course is so tasty?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...
It's never to late to join the party folks, but if you wait to long all the good appetizers will be gone

Who cares about appetizers when the main course is so tasty?

Bulltraps all the way down. I get it now. I know when I'm outmatched

[contagion]

The fact is that sovereign governments cannot tolerate deflation unless they consistently run balanced budgets or make surpluses, and have low debt. Individual states and municipalities are irrelevant. Central banks will continually monetize government deficits.

Mathematically incorrect.

Only the members who have something at stake should be "allowed" to write negatively. Starting today  

Banning, censoring, and denial of facts won't help you. It is also a violation of your Christian ethics.

The above link analogously explains mathematically how whales can strangle an economy.

[smooth]

- there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years

I would like you to give me 99-1 odds on a bet that Monero survives the next two years. According to your estimate this bet should be profitable to you.

How much are you willing to bet?

[lyth0s]

Risto is and will always be just a speculator. His other delusions are just that.

According to definition, "speculation" is an act of foreseeing that an asset has a greater EV than PV+carry cost.

Being "just" a speculator is a decent income if you are even a little successful.

I agree. It will be very lucrative for you I think.

But if you think you are a builder or even capable organizer of building of high tech, pleeeaaasssseeee...

The recent events have again showed how brilliant a game designer and capable a gamemaster I am (traits I never doubted having) but also how I suck with high tech (which I never was comfortable with).

So yes, replying to anontrolls is still something I do, despite knowing that it is needless and actually that we should grow a culture where negative comments by anons like you are just deleted, positive contribution is treasured. Only the members who have something at stake should be "allowed" to write negatively. Starting today 

I always find it entertaining how much people hate on the wealthy. Whether people call it speculating or investing or w/e they wish, you are quite a bit better well off than you were previously and much more than most of us around here. Haters gonna hate!

[smooth]

Risto is and will always be just a speculator. His other delusions are just that.

According to definition, "speculation" is an act of foreseeing that an asset has a greater EV than PV+carry cost.

Being "just" a speculator is a decent income if you are even a little successful.

No, according to definition "speculation" is the act of foreseeing the price of something going up (or down) irrespective of underlying value and profiting from that.

|Foreseeing that an asset has a greater EV than PV+carry cost is called investing.

There is no difference, other than rhetorical ("investing" is good, "speculation" is bad). The expected value of an asset is exactly equal to the expected price minus carry.

[KJO]

...
It's never to late to join the party folks, but if you wait to long all the good appetizers will be gone

Who cares about appetizers when the main course is so tasty?

My ribs hurt from laughing.

[rpietila]

- there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years

I would like you to give me 99-1 odds on a bet that Monero survives the next two years. According to your estimate this bet should be profitable to you.

How much are you willing to bet?

This reminds me why Odalv is on my ignore list. There has to be something seriously wrong in the logic of the guy if he can reconcile the following statements:

- Monero has 1% chance of survival
- smooth and rpietila together can cause its survival
- smooth and rpietila want to cause its survival.

I would understand if the coin's survival was an external event, like whether it rains or not. I don't have a haarpoon so cannot control it. But Monero's survival is just a decision of me, of smooth or of anyone else. No need to ask permission. Anyone can cause Monero to survive!

I give the chance of survival for 2 years to be about 50%. This is composed of a fatal flaw in CN tech and the "fair fork" risk.

And am willing to bet, with a well-defined "survival". It is a virtuous circle to bet for something that you can control.

[smooth]

- there is less than 1% than monero can survive next 2 years

I would like you to give me 99-1 odds on a bet that Monero survives the next two years. According to your estimate this bet should be profitable to you.

How much are you willing to bet?

This reminds me why Odalv is on my ignore list. There has to be something seriously wrong in the logic of the guy if he can reconcile the following statements:

- Monero has 1% chance of survival
- smooth and rpietila together can cause its survival
- smooth and rpietila want to cause its survival.

True, but I would make the bet even if I had no influence over the survival.

1% is just a stupid assessment of the probability of survival.

Posting on a forum is cheap talk. I'm pretty sure if Odalv were actually making a bet with his own money, 1% would not be his estimate.

[Wekkel]

Survival of Monero over a time span of 2 years is about 100%
Even Bytecoin (the real 1:1 clone of Bitcoin) still exists. Barring a catastrophic issue with the software, it just won't die so soon.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Survival of Monero over a time span of 2 years is about 100%

A more interesting bet would be on the survival of the Euro as it is in terms of participant states beyond 2015.

[grappa_barricata]

A more interesting bet would be on the survival of the Euro as it is in terms of participant states beyond 2015.

How much you wanna bet? Lets not bet money however. I was thinking that, if on 12-31-2015 23:59 GMT+0 all nations that are currently using the Euro as national currency still use it you will post a picture of yourself with a shoe on your head. If, instead, at least a nation has relinquished the Euro i'll post a picture of myself with two (2) shoes on my head. Deal?

[conspirosphere.tk]

A more interesting bet would be on the survival of the Euro as it is in terms of participant states beyond 2015.

How much you wanna bet? Lets not bet money however. I was thinking that, if on 12-31-2015 23:59 GMT+0 all nations that are currently using the Euro as national currency still use it you will post a picture of yourself with a shoe on your head. If, instead, at least a nation has relinquished the Euro i'll post a picture of myself with two (2) shoes on my head. Deal?

no, since i'm not an exhibitionist, but I'm open to bet 0.10 btc on bitbet.

[grappa_barricata]

A more interesting bet would be on the survival of the Euro as it is in terms of participant states beyond 2015.

How much you wanna bet? Lets not bet money however. I was thinking that, if on 12-31-2015 23:59 GMT+0 all nations that are currently using the Euro as national currency still use it you will post a picture of yourself with a shoe on your head. If, instead, at least a nation has relinquished the Euro i'll post a picture of myself with two (2) shoes on my head. Deal?

no, since i'm not an exhibitionist, but I'm open to bet 0.10 btc on bitbet.

Bet dirty money? No way! Shoes on head are more fun. But it's okay, I understand.

[contagion]

The discussed bet about Monero is ambiguous. Define the "exist" metric.

A more interesting bet is the probability that Monero will have 1 million users within 2 years, but we have no way to measure it precisely do we?

Going from 0 to 1 million users in 2 years is quite realistic for even a moderately popular niche software. I know because I accomplished that from launching CoolPage in late 1998 (which was just a niche WYSIWYG web page editor for n00bs) and attaining 335,000 confirmed websites (as reported by altavista.com) by roughly 2000 and 600,000+ confirmed downloads from just one of the major download sites. And this was when the internet was 1/10 of its current population.

My estimate would be roughly 5% chance for Monero to achieve that (i.e. I can't even get to the unlikely side of the first order of the Pareto principle, rather my estimate is the second-order Pareto case). But if I bet, I would want sufficiently more favorable odds, because there is no benefit to placing a bet at fair (ly appraised) odds.

What are your estimates?

Edit: my estimate is based on not being aware of any plan to put a feature in Monero that would target a popular enough niche market. If there is such a plan that I am unaware of, my estimate could possibly change.

[BitDreams]

I think oil will be a good investment. I would wait for a bottom of $45 USD and then buy buy buy. The games that the west is playing with Russia is the root cause of this supposed 'glut'. Fact is there is no more of a glut now then when the price was at its high. Some serious money to be made off of crude.

Global economy is collapsing. After Oct. 2015, this will accelerate. There is an excess of supply in everything. Massive deflation on the way.

Yes. However governments will print enormous amounts of fiat to counteract that deflation, whatever it takes. Because they cannot allow their own sovereign debt  to increase in real terms or they will soon find 100% of tax revenue is needed for interest on their debt. They have shown time and again that they will print, stealth-taxing their fiat holding public, to service their own debt first. That is the only choice of default that governments take.

Collapse in fiat means Bitcoin, and gold, UP.

The States of the USA and the municipalities of Germany for example, by law can not print.

Europe is adopting a combination of austerity and monetary easing.

The plan is to confiscate all the pensions and savings to fund the socialism. This is massively deflationary.

Sorry the hyperinflation nonsense is so old. Haven't you guys caught up in your learning process by now? You are where I was at in 2006 in my understanding.

Gold and Bitcoin will go up because of a flight to private assets to escape confiscation, not because of monetary easing. But in the end game none of these will escape taxation. Maybe Gold will if you never sell it again for fiat, you can polish it daily for your ROI. Cash black markets will disappear because the new fiats will be all electronic. Electronic real-estate ownership databases will be created. The socialism will track down every asset.

There is no anonymity. The socialism is in control. Taxes will increase. Confiscation will increase. Down the abyss we go.

When the price of gold goes down but it's relative value has gone up, that is deflationary pain at its greatest.

[wpalczynski]

It sure is.  I think this guy is multi-polar

The discussed bet about Monero is ambiguous. Define the "exist" metric.

A more interesting bet is the probability that Monero will have 1 million users within 2 years, but we have no way to measure it precisely do we?

Going from 0 to 1 million users in 2 years is quite realistic for even a moderately popular niche software. I know because I accomplished that from launching CoolPage in late 1998 (which was just a niche WYSIWYG web page editor for n00bs) and attaining 335,000 confirmed websites (as reported by altavista.com) by roughly 2000 and 600,000+ confirmed downloads from just one of the major download sites. And this was when the internet was 1/10 of its current population.

My estimate would be roughly 5% chance for Monero to achieve that (i.e. I can't even get to the unlikely side of the first order of the Pareto principle, rather my estimate is the second-order Pareto case). But if I bet, I would want sufficiently more favorable odds, because there is no benefit to placing a bet at fair (ly appraised) odds.

What are your estimates?

Edit: my estimate is based on not being aware of any plan to put a feature in Monero that would target a popular enough niche market. If there is such a plan that I am unaware of, my estimate could possibly change.

Anonymint?

[smooth]

The discussed bet about Monero is ambiguous. Define the "exist" metric.

It isn't really ambiguous. It's a English word that has a pretty well defined meaning. Any nodes or any users still using it, or something very close to that.

As far as another bet on a million users or something, i don't have a strong opinion on it, so no reason to bet. I just have an opinion on 1% to exist in two years and that is absurdly low, essentially a trolling statement  (which I guess worked).