rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[macsga]

It's a great moment to read a quality TA post from one of the best in the field. Welcome Back Risto.

[Zarathustra]

On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)

Lol SegNet

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-miners-and-industry-meet-in-beijing/
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821

[r0ach]

On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)

Lol SegNet

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-miners-and-industry-meet-in-beijing/
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821

You can't be serious linking a "prohashing" post.  The guy thinks Ethereum isn't a crapcoin and is amazed the price is cratering and he's usually wrong on most other subjects too.

We have a 40 page thread of why Ethereum is conceptually and technically broken:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

[Zarathustra]

On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)

Lol SegNet

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-miners-and-industry-meet-in-beijing/
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821

You can't be serious linking a "prohashing" post.  The guy thinks Ethereum isn't a crapcoin and is amazed the price is cratering and he's usually wrong on most other subjects too.

We have a 40 page thread of why Ethereum is conceptually and technically broken:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

Nevertheless, he nailed a lot of problems he describes in this essay. And AFAIK Nick Szabo doesn't think that Ethereum is broken. I don't know, and I don't hold any ETHs.
I could also argue that Bitcoin is broken, and it is, if the actual situation (mining majority centralized behind the great firewall / development dominated by 1 company) will continue:

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4fxiz1/segwit_changes_the_block_size_limit_no_consensus/

[NewLiberty]

It's a great moment to read a quality TA post from one of the best in the field. Welcome Back Risto.

Can you feel it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25QyCxVkXwQ

[JayJuanGee]

The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning 

I appreciate a lot of your points, yet we gotta be careful when we attempt to put too much emphasis on TA and math... we are dealing with human behavior, manipulators and politics, too which sometimes falls outside of the predictability of mathematical formulas (until employing analysis after the events have already occurred).

hahahahahaha...

I recall fairly well the end of 2014, when there were all kinds of schoolings on ways to make money shorting bitcoin... it is a bit ridiculous, even though shorting did work pretty well throughout 2014.... but you are correct, by the time early 2015 came, it became more and more difficult to employ those shorting strategies and to make money on such strategies.

[Bios Optimus]

Nice to see you back Risto hope you will keep up this thread the other wall observer has gone neurotic

[MatTheCat]

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign.

I don't ever recall price eking upwards, yet volume continually decreasing as being a 'bullish sign'. I honestly don't and can't think of any pro trader anywhere, who has ever said "rising price and decreasing volume is bullish".

One 'reason' that I could accept, would be that Miners aren't selling BTC into the market. They are hoarding, to dump at a later date, during/after the halving, when Bitcoin is as highly priced as the anticipated public mania can drive it.

[JayJuanGee]

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign.

I don't ever recall price eking upwards, yet volume continually decreasing as being a 'bullish sign'. I honestly don't and can't think of any pro trader anywhere, who has ever said "rising price and decreasing volume is bullish".

One 'reason' that I could accept, would be that Miners aren't selling BTC into the market. They are hoarding, to dump at a later date, during/after the halving, when Bitcoin is as highly priced as the anticipated public mania can drive it.

First, you are ridiculous because you clearly mischaracterize both what was said and what is happening.

No one said volume is decreasing; however, volume is down was said.

Volume is staying somewhat down, but appears to be eking up a little bit... probably, volume could stay down, once bears stop selling coins and give up on their attempts to reverse the upward price trend.

Second, you are ridiculous because you seem to be talking your book and hoping that prices are going to go down.  You are betting against an apparent obvious trend in order to "hopefully" strike it rich if the trend were to reverse.  That is a very risky strategy because it's odds of ending in your favor seems to be in about the single digits... you are hoping for a savior bearwhale.. which is posslble, but not too likely.

[molecular]

It's a great moment to read a quality TA post from one of the best in the field. Welcome Back Risto.

hehe. Risto coming back, masterluc showing up,... let's see how hard we can rally despite the bs stranglehold.

[mightyghz]

Similar to what I said earlier today:

random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving

Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.

I believe that everything is exactly as you describe it, I'll follow the thread.

[MatTheCat]

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign.

I don't ever recall price eking upwards, yet volume continually decreasing as being a 'bullish sign'. I honestly don't and can't think of any pro trader anywhere, who has ever said "rising price and decreasing volume is bullish".

One 'reason' that I could accept, would be that Miners aren't selling BTC into the market. They are hoarding, to dump at a later date, during/after the halving, when Bitcoin is as highly priced as the anticipated public mania can drive it.

First, you are ridiculous because you clearly mischaracterize both what was said and what is happening.

No one said volume is decreasing; however, volume is down was said.

Volume is staying somewhat down, but appears to be eking up a little bit... probably, volume could stay down, once bears stop selling coins and give up on their attempts to reverse the upward price trend.

Second, you are ridiculous because you seem to be talking your book and hoping that prices are going to go down.  You are betting against an apparent obvious trend in order to "hopefully" strike it rich if the trend were to reverse.  That is a very risky strategy because it's odds of ending in your favor seems to be in about the single digits... you are hoping for a savior bearwhale.. which is posslble, but not too likely.

I don't have any trades on at all at the moment, and am actually net long on Bitcoin.

I am looking for retrace and formation of confirmed bottom against either the support trendline that has been in play since Nov 2015, or one of the triangle resistance trendlines which was bust through, and should now prove itself as support.

P.S. Zoom out, look at the volume since the $500 pop, and tell me that it aint been decreasing, continually.

[Wekkel]

It's a great moment to read a quality TA post from one of the best in the field. Welcome Back Risto.

Back just in time to watch 'inevitable' happen

[JayJuanGee]

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign.

I don't ever recall price eking upwards, yet volume continually decreasing as being a 'bullish sign'. I honestly don't and can't think of any pro trader anywhere, who has ever said "rising price and decreasing volume is bullish".

One 'reason' that I could accept, would be that Miners aren't selling BTC into the market. They are hoarding, to dump at a later date, during/after the halving, when Bitcoin is as highly priced as the anticipated public mania can drive it.

First, you are ridiculous because you clearly mischaracterize both what was said and what is happening.

No one said volume is decreasing; however, volume is down was said.

Volume is staying somewhat down, but appears to be eking up a little bit... probably, volume could stay down, once bears stop selling coins and give up on their attempts to reverse the upward price trend.

Second, you are ridiculous because you seem to be talking your book and hoping that prices are going to go down.  You are betting against an apparent obvious trend in order to "hopefully" strike it rich if the trend were to reverse.  That is a very risky strategy because it's odds of ending in your favor seems to be in about the single digits... you are hoping for a savior bearwhale.. which is posslble, but not too likely.

I don't have any trades on at all at the moment, and am actually net long on Bitcoin.

I am looking for retrace and formation of confirmed bottom against either the support trendline that has been in play since Nov 2015, or one of the triangle resistance trendlines which was bust through, and should now prove itself as support.

P.S. Zoom out, look at the volume since the $500 pop, and tell me that it aint been decreasing, continually.

I don't feel like attempting to parse your post history in determining whether you are net long or short, and ultimately that is for you to determine.  I will attempt to take you on your word that you are not overly talking your book (even though we all may do such book talking to some degree).  Within my BTC investment funds, I have about 93.5% in BTC and 6.5% in fiat, and surely a bit of a drop could be o.k. for me, too... .. but I feel a lot better with upwards price movement.

To me, it seems a bit too narrow if you are overly focusing on technicalities... O.k... yeah, it is possible that we could experience various corrections that bring us within a less steep incline - and some of those kind of triangles will depend upon how far into history you are looking in order to figure the current trend or the overall trend and whether up or down is more likely based on trends or trends within trends.  

I kind of feel as if my own personal portfolio is prepared for either direction because I do not leverage nor bet large quantities of it at a time, yet the upward price pressure is beginning to seem more and more palpable.... I mean really, were you around the past several months (don't mean to be too argumentative, here), we had quite extensive attempts to get below $350, then attempts to get below $380 and then attempts to get below $400.. and after a while those attempts have been unsuccessful... with many of those downward attempts, after a while the only direction left (in order for the attempted manipulators to attempt to make a profit) is to go upwards rather than downwards.  Surely we could remain stuck in this sub $460 price arena for a few more months, but really, there seems to be a considerable amount of upwards price pressures, at the moment..


Regarding volume since August 2015, I agree that such volume shrunk after the new year (which was about 2 months after the $502 spike), and volume had been increasingly declining from about January until the past week or so.  

Possibly we are talking about trade volume in different ways, and there are various ways that you can frame it in order to make your points, but it is one thing to talk about volume in terms of the most recent uptick or to talk about it on a broader scale... Risto can speak for himself; however, I have the sense that Risto was referring to volume within the past couple of weeks rather than talking about volume since January (or even since November).. because mixing time frames does not seem to make a lot of sense in order to attempt to get logical coherence regarding looking at the most recent upward price pressures (which are really only a few weeks old, at most).

Regarding volume in the recent upsurge of the past 2-3 weeks, this most recent upsurge has been on low volume, and there may be some signs that it is picking up a little bit of steam in recent days - it's probably too early to determine where it is going, but the price increase of the past 2-3 weeks has been on relatively low steady volume (possibly slightly increasing and not shrinking volume).

[MatTheCat]

Regarding volume in the recent upsurge of the past 2-3 weeks, this most recent upsurge has been on low volume, and there may be some signs that it is picking up a little bit of steam in recent days - it's probably too early to determine where it is going, but the price increase of the past 2-3 weeks has been on relatively low steady volume (possibly slightly increasing and not shrinking volume).

You talk of 'manipulators'.

Prior to the break out at $435, which was also the breaking point of the last viable triangle based trendline, there was 17.5K BTC swaps on Bitfinex. During the rise, that total cratered to around 12K. That right there, is 5K of pure unadulterated buying pressure. I am off the opinion, that BTC has been driven up, because that is where the easy liquidity is to be gotten and now that 'they' have got all of the 'weak' shorts, Bitcoin will now correct....with the odd little cheeky pop up above $455 just to srping any Johnny come lately weak Short Stops (i.e. risking against the recent high), also being likely.

However, I am totally with you on the $350, $360, $390, $403, $412, thing. I have been keeping a close eye on it myself and along with that, and the line in the sand final resistance trendline at $435, which I did not think would be breached on this attempt, I have been looking for a breach of this level, followed by a support of either the trend support trend line, or the final resistance trendline which should now become support....

....thus I am looking to go long, but I aint buying up here. BTC will correct soon enough.

[r0ach]

Nevertheless, he (the prohashing guy) nailed a lot of problems he describes in this essay

This is just not true.  All of his posts (the prohashing guy) concerning Litecoin are pure fantasy.  He talks about how some huge changes will be made to Litecoin and/or how the market is going to be moving all over the place, either up and down, and pretty much every one of his predictions is a failure.  Litecoin just sits there with no changes to protocol or price doing absolutely nothing.  That guy's track record is abysmal.  He conjures up some Twilight Zone fantasy in his mind then thinks he can get the market to react to it.

And AFAIK Nick Szabo doesn't think that Ethereum is broken. I don't know, and I don't hold any ETHs.

Szabo just admitted the other day he wishes Eth would stay on PoW.  Presumably, the only reason he could say this is because he considers PoS implementations to be broken, yet that's what they're changing to.

I am looking for retrace and formation of confirmed bottom against either the support trendline that has been in play since Nov 2015

Classic MatTheCat fail.  Looking at TA from half a year ago is completely useless because the fundamentals have now vastly changed.  Block size cutting in half is a fundamental.

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding volume in the recent upsurge of the past 2-3 weeks, this most recent upsurge has been on low volume, and there may be some signs that it is picking up a little bit of steam in recent days - it's probably too early to determine where it is going, but the price increase of the past 2-3 weeks has been on relatively low steady volume (possibly slightly increasing and not shrinking volume).

You talk of 'manipulators'.

Well, I talk about manipulators because I remain of the belief that we have to continue to account for such a dynamic in part because bitcoin's market cap remains relatively small, and there seems to be a considerable amount of both financial and political incentives to make attempts at manipulation.. .yet manipulation remains only part of the story, and likely harder to achieve the larger bitcoin becomes in several ways, including price pressures by a larger and larger variety of actors.

Prior to the break out at $435, which was also the breaking point of the last viable triangle based trendline, there was 17.5K BTC swaps on Bitfinex. During the rise, that total cratered to around 12K. That right there, is 5K of pure unadulterated buying pressure. I am off the opinion, that BTC has been driven up, because that is where the easy liquidity is to be gotten and now that 'they' have got all of the 'weak' shorts, Bitcoin will now correct....with the odd little cheeky pop up above $455 just to srping any Johnny come lately weak Short Stops (i.e. risking against the recent high), also being likely.

I don't make any meaningful attempts to predict shorter term price moves or even potential's for quick 10% to 15% adjustment of the price based on short term momentum that may be caused by a narrow set of factors.  Some of this is just difficult to know for me and probably for anyone except someone playing with a lot of coins, and I don't want to spend that much time analyzing the various exchanges in order to make such attempts at short-term price predictions...   Accordingly, I attempt to prepare my own buying and selling for at least a quick and unexpected 15% price surge.. and then to readjust along the way in case the price surge continues in the same direction (or the easier outcome when the price momentum nearly immediately reverses directions).  These days I try not to run low of either fiat or bitcoin.. even if there is a price surge. .and anyhow, my trading amounts are not really a vary large percentage of my total holdings... which seems safer than trying to bet on short term green or red, which seems nearly impossible.

However, I am totally with you on the $350, $360, $390, $403, $412, thing. I have been keeping a close eye on it myself and along with that, and the line in the sand final resistance trendline at $435, which I did not think would be breached on this attempt, I have been looking for a breach of this level, followed by a support of either the trend support trend line, or the final resistance trendline which should now become support....

O.k.   We know that previous price points remain relevant... showing either areas where support or resistance builds up - . yeah and breaking through those can cause trends.. or changes in trends, yet we may remain unclear about interpretation while in the middle of it.

....thus I am looking to go long, but I aint buying up here. BTC will correct soon enough.

Personally, I believe that is a risk and a problem when you play too much balls to the walls, and it just is neither my style or my tolerance.  I would rather set up my strategy to for sure win in smaller increments rather than gambling and winning bigger (with more uncertainty)... ... but different strokes for different folks... you surely can win bigger when you gamble, and younger people can still make up for screw ups... the older you are the more you also need to preserve your capital  (but still hopefully able to use the capital before death - because it is not going to do a lot of good to build up a fortune and then never be able to use it because of death).

[Afrikoin]

Regarding volume in the recent upsurge of the past 2-3 weeks, this most recent upsurge has been on low volume, and there may be some signs that it is picking up a little bit of steam in recent days - it's probably too early to determine where it is going, but the price increase of the past 2-3 weeks has been on relatively low steady volume (possibly slightly increasing and not shrinking volume).

You talk of 'manipulators'.

Prior to the break out at $435, which was also the breaking point of the last viable triangle based trendline, there was 17.5K BTC swaps on Bitfinex. During the rise, that total cratered to around 12K. That right there, is 5K of pure unadulterated buying pressure. I am off the opinion, that BTC has been driven up, because that is where the easy liquidity is to be gotten and now that 'they' have got all of the 'weak' shorts, Bitcoin will now correct....with the odd little cheeky pop up above $455 just to srping any Johnny come lately weak Short Stops (i.e. risking against the recent high), also being likely.

However, I am totally with you on the $350, $360, $390, $403, $412, thing. I have been keeping a close eye on it myself and along with that, and the line in the sand final resistance trendline at $435, which I did not think would be breached on this attempt, I have been looking for a breach of this level, followed by a support of either the trend support trend line, or the final resistance trendline which should now become support....

....thus I am looking to go long, but I aint buying up here. BTC will correct soon enough.

It might continue on down, but as long as $431 holds, or even $423, it is good territory.

Like you, i watched the rise up, higher higher lows $350, $360, $390, $403, $412. I was confident we would break above $423 and hold, after a failed attempt a week earlier failed at $427.

So the break of $423 to $433, back down to mid $423, held support and took off was confirmation for me. I got in at $425 at the retracement.

Obviously, i see your hesitation, as you are looking for a close to 100% confirmation.

To me, however, it seems you are too cautious. Evident from when you missed the break above $423 that held as support on retracement from $435 (highlighted). This is natural, because in an uptrend, different traders will set up trades on the rise at different levels (of confidence for example).

My 2 cents

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding volume in the recent upsurge of the past 2-3 weeks, this most recent upsurge has been on low volume, and there may be some signs that it is picking up a little bit of steam in recent days - it's probably too early to determine where it is going, but the price increase of the past 2-3 weeks has been on relatively low steady volume (possibly slightly increasing and not shrinking volume).

You talk of 'manipulators'.

Prior to the break out at $435, which was also the breaking point of the last viable triangle based trendline, there was 17.5K BTC swaps on Bitfinex. During the rise, that total cratered to around 12K. That right there, is 5K of pure unadulterated buying pressure. I am off the opinion, that BTC has been driven up, because that is where the easy liquidity is to be gotten and now that 'they' have got all of the 'weak' shorts, Bitcoin will now correct....with the odd little cheeky pop up above $455 just to srping any Johnny come lately weak Short Stops (i.e. risking against the recent high), also being likely.

However, I am totally with you on the $350, $360, $390, $403, $412, thing. I have been keeping a close eye on it myself and along with that, and the line in the sand final resistance trendline at $435, which I did not think would be breached on this attempt, I have been looking for a breach of this level, followed by a support of either the trend support trend line, or the final resistance trendline which should now become support....

....thus I am looking to go long, but I aint buying up here. BTC will correct soon enough.

It might continue on down, but as long as $431 holds, or even $423, it is good territory.

Like you, i watched the rise up, higher higher lows $350, $360, $390, $403, $412. I was confident we would break above $423 and hold, after a failed attempt a week earlier failed at $427.

So the break of $423 to $433, back down to mid $423, held support and took off was confirmation for me. I got in at $425 at the retracement.

Obviously, i see your hesitation, as you are looking for a close to 100% confirmation.

To me, however, it seems you are too cautious. Evident from when you missed the break above $423 that held as support on retracement from $435 (highlighted). This is natural, because in an uptrend, different traders will set up trades on the rise at different levels (of confidence for example).

My 2 cents

I agree, and sometimes traders, such as Matt are just too extreme in their approach.


Surely, i don't claim to be any BTC trading geneous; however, I just don't play with a lot of my stash....

Even in that regard, when the price is booming, I don't make as much, either.  In recent weeks, I had been attempting to get my allocation in the 95% bitcoin and 5% fiat range.. yet when the price is going up, I am selling and currently my BTC trading holdings are about 93% bitcoin and 7% fiat.. If the price keeps going up, then maybe I will end up in the 75% bitcoin territory... fuck... I prefer not to, but you know I just go with the flow.

On the other hand, if Matt is waiting and waiting and waiting to buy in, that just does not seem to be making much sense... you can buy in a little bit on this dip down from $457.80 to $453 and then sell some of that if it goes up and keep some fiat to buy more if it goes down...

Don't put all of your eggs in the below $440 basket or the below $430 basket,  the below $400 basket or the below $350 basket, even though it makes sense to have some fiat on hand in the event that prices do go down to those lower price levels... The main point seems to be that a lot of the factors seem to be lining up for upwards.. but if we want to protect our portfolio and don't get too greedy, we cannot bet all of our chips on "UP", either....

 just saying... 

[birr]

Hodl.