rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[jubalix]

Why not SHOTR, rpietila, as it has never been clearer that bitcoin is going to be worth much less than it is now.  Using our proven martingale maxleverage SHOTR strategy you could become even more wealthy, as is confirmed by our facts and all the bad and confirmed news.

I am with the Most Eminent Highness Crytpo Majesty Goat, in that I never short. Selling 3% is about the most definite statement of bitcoin's current overvaluation that I can bear to execute.

I fear missing an evaluation event = 10 x when in Fiat far more than a devaluation of BTC, for this reason I find it very hard to sell BTC from an objective view point

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[CoolStoryBro]

Yes it was quite hilarious that my totally unbullish action in Gox sparked the other whale to panic and the herd in Stamp followed and your prediction failed as bitcoin gained 5%, whatisit - 500 million dollars market cap.. <3 Bitcoin 

Btw I had a BTC400 ask wall in Stamp in 750 but pulled it when it crashed towards it. Actually should have kept it in place though...

I'm actually thinking that we could possibly see a crash of 20% starting from 815 in the next 24 hours. Anything smaller than that I would not buy as bitcoin is in a precarious position.

I actually think that crash started on BTC-e (at least according to BTC-e) - about 10-12 minutes before there was several sells up to 1100 BTC and prices passed 800 mark into 785.  Though in the next several minutes price went back to 800 but it was on low volume, and then ?coordinated? (better say bot reaction?) crash started on all stocks. And for my surprise Gox not crashed for too low.

What volume did you sold?

not trying to argue, just asking/wondering

[rpietila]

Yes it was quite hilarious that my totally unbullish action in Gox sparked the other whale to panic and the herd in Stamp followed and your prediction failed as bitcoin gained 5%, whatisit - 500 million dollars market cap.. <3 Bitcoin 

Btw I had a BTC400 ask wall in Stamp in 750 but pulled it when it crashed towards it. Actually should have kept it in place though...

I'm actually thinking that we could possibly see a crash of 20% starting from 815 in the next 24 hours. Anything smaller than that I would not buy as bitcoin is in a precarious position.

I actually think that crash started on BTC-e (at least according to BTC-e) - about 10-12 minutes before there was several sells up to 1100 BTC and prices passed 800 mark into 785.  Though in the next several minutes price went back to 800 but it was on low volume, and then ?coordinated? (better say bot reaction?) crash started on all stocks. And for my surprise Gox not crashed for too low.

What volume did you sold?

not trying to argue, just asking/wondering

I was talking about the buy panic in Gox and later BS. You seem to talk about the start of the crash

[electronistul]

I'm actually thinking that we could possibly see a crash of 20% starting from 815 in the next 24 hours. Anything smaller than that I would not buy as bitcoin is in a precarious position.

It seems the hours passed and we're still there. However, it's interesting to watch everyone on the tip of their toes with the mouse cursors above the "Sell" button, just because there's a prediction of a price decline initiated in China. That lingers in the air and my honest opinion is that China will not initiate this. They might follow if Stamp / BTCe starts the downtrend, but I'm thinking that the odds they actually starting it are diminishing by the hour.
That doesn't mean it won't happen - you can actually feel the tension - it's palpable - and it might happen "just because" everyone's expecting it, without a clear reason; If the news from Russia did this much to destabilize the market, the bears will wake up at the first alarm their smartphones will trigger at the slightest price drop.

However, the question goes backwards: everybody's so eager to sell these days, will they be as eager (if not more) to buy back after the 1st ? 

[rpietila]

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

[Dragonkiller]

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

[hdbuck]

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

or bulls will panic sell when they see nothing happens on the 31st

[rpietila]

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

[Miz4r]

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

You're delusional. The bear camp is way bigger than the bull camp right now. Mainly because of China and the Jan 31st deadline.

[MAbtc]

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

You're delusional. The bear camp is way bigger than the bull camp right now. Mainly because of China and the Jan 31st deadline.

I'm actually not sure about that. It's something bulls keep repeating (followed by the "bears will panic buy after nothing happens on the 31st" prediction), but it's not so obvious to me.

[Miz4r]

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

You're delusional. The bear camp is way bigger than the bull camp right now. Mainly because of China and the Jan 31st deadline.

I'm actually not sure about that. It's something bulls keep repeating (followed by the "bears will panic buy after nothing happens on the 31st" prediction), but it's not so obvious to me.

Well most people I know who are into bitcoin are at least 50% in fiat waiting for the whole China thing to pass. This may or may not be representative for all bitcoin holders and traders but I do feel that this is the general sentiment right now. I'm not claiming that bears will panic buy immediately when nothing happens after the 31st, but I don't think this whole consolidation period will last longer than a couple more weeks at most. We'll see.

[Torque]

It's funny, so many bitcoiners focused on the date of Jan. 31st, but little do they know it's for all the wrong reasons.  Can't see the Chinese forest for the trees.

Do people with no eye on what's happening in the emerging markets really think that the Chinese government would put an arbitrary date of Jan. 31st, 2014, the announcement almost 2 months ahead of schedule, because they were focused on suspending bank withdrawals for.... just bitcoin?  Really?  Really??

China will be suspending bank withdrawals from Jan 31st to about Feb 7th, and it has little do with the bitcoin market.  It's just coincidental that it would effect bitcoin purchasing as well. Just do the research online and you'll find out why.  

[znaky]

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

You're delusional. The bear camp is way bigger than the bull camp right now. Mainly because of China and the Jan 31st deadline.

I also have the impression that the bear camp is bigger right now. If this is true, we will probably see a rise in the price in february when all bears want to buy back in.

[BitChick]

bears will buy back after they see nothing happens on the 31st

What bears? Although price has slid -20% in 3 weeks with no sign to the better, the bear camp is almost empty. Imagine the hooray from bull camp if the price had gone up this much in this time.. This way you know the relative numbers of each.

You're delusional. The bear camp is way bigger than the bull camp right now. Mainly because of China and the Jan 31st deadline.

I'm actually not sure about that. It's something bulls keep repeating (followed by the "bears will panic buy after nothing happens on the 31st" prediction), but it's not so obvious to me.

Well most people I know who are into bitcoin are at least 50% in fiat waiting for the whole China thing to pass. This may or may not be representative for all bitcoin holders and traders but I do feel that this is the general sentiment right now. I'm not claiming that bears will panic buy immediately when nothing happens after the 31st, but I don't think this whole consolidation period will last longer than a couple more weeks at most. We'll see.

Then tomorrow and the 31st should be interesting.  There may be some people that decide to jump in before others and buy because they realize that the price is not dependent on China at this point.  I think that those that wanted to get out of Bitcoin in China already have.  We saw a big drop after the announcement of the 31st deadline so the price has probably already been factored in for that.  Now we are in a state of limbo because of all of the talk about the the price dropping but most people that believe in Bitcoin want coins not fiat in the long run so they will have to buy back at some point.

There are those that are now perfectly content "cashing out" of course.  The earliest adopters here are in a much more comfortable place then us "late comers" but patience is a virtue.   I have come to realize that it is so much easier not to panic the longer one is in Bitcoin.  We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. 

[MAbtc]

We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. 

Maybe. But it's always good to take some profit off the table, especially to recover initial investment. The long term moon scenario is not guaranteed.

[fonzie]

We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. 

Maybe. But it's always good to take some profit off the table, especially to recover initial investment. The long term moon scenario is not guaranteed.

INFIDEL!!!

[FiatKiller]

I'm very bullish thru 2015, a bit less thru 2017. After that I am concerned about the size of the blockchain if Moore's law/equipment cannot keep up. Can't really see new people adopting if they need to download for a week. Ironically, the oldtimers/devs will be so rich by then they may not even care about fixing the issue.

[BitChick]

We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end. 

Maybe. But it's always good to take some profit off the table, especially to recover initial investment. The long term moon scenario is not guaranteed.

Yes.  The question is when to take profit though.  I figure as long as you have only invested what you can afford to lose 100% of, the risk is fairly low keeping it in there, especially with so much potential gains in the future.  We have had to sell some coins during the past couple of months.  We really wanted to keep them in there for at least a year because long-term capital gains are a little less brutal when doing taxes, but things come up.  But it is wise to have a plan for sure.

[MatTheCat]

When "everyone" thinks it will go down, the reverse happens. Right now the number of actual bears is quite small. There is much bear-ridicule though. That is a sign that the bulls are nervous.

Fact is that price has been sliding down for 3+ weeks, making 4-5 lower highs and the recent lower low. Nobody is buying.

A sudden massive influx of new money would make it a CCMF now. Otherwise, next week or the one after, the most nervous of the bulls will pull the trigger and the capitulation will start.

Another thing is that because it's been taking so long, the ones who sold in anticipation of a buyback have started wasting the money For example I have taken more and more out of the exchange. The hopes of the bulls, that bears will capitulate and start buying at these levels are delusional. It has not happened so far and will not happen. My buyback level has not budged from $400.

I'm actually not sure about that. It's something bulls keep repeating (followed by the "bears will panic buy after nothing happens on the 31st" prediction), but it's not so obvious to me.

I am 0% in Bitcoin at the moment, because I am essentially a bear for the near term. However, I pulled my latest short bet as:

A) Fk all is happening for the time being.

B) I could see Bitcoin taking a surge upwards as the Bitcoin Nutters pile in on the back of some 'good news' or whale manipulated bullish signals, inspiring widespread confidence and investment to rush into Bitcoin, at which point some whale(s) looking to actually turn a sizeable chunk of of his digital code into actual spendable wealth will pull the trigger and smash a shit load of coins into rabidly aggressive bid walls on markets all over, maximising yield of USD but turning the tide on Bitcoin horribly.

Bitcoins rapid rise in 'value' is based largely on restricted supply. It is a cornered market and the Bitcoin whales know this and know what they need to do to make sure they maximise their benefit from it.

This is perhaps a bit of a wild theory, but as a bear, I do not trust right now to be a good time to be short Bitcoin, but a bear I have to remain because my gut tells me that I have got to be at this point in time in addition to my Tech Analysis 101 skills adding weight to the bearish case by the day, especially the break down from the 3 week long descending triangle a few days ago.

I am not just bearish, I sense that there is going to be a slaughter. I am musing over the idea of Bitcoin taking a ostensible bullish leap forward before the bloodbath, simply because this would be the absolutely most brutal scenario that could possibly play out, and the Bitcoin world is a ruthless cut-throat shark infested world.

Bitcoin......run and dominated by 'libertarian lovers of freedom'?

Not in the world that I live in it aint.

[seleme]

I'm very bullish thru 2015, a bit less thru 2017. After that I am concerned about the size of the blockchain if Moore's law/equipment cannot keep up. Can't really see new people adopting if they need to download for a week. Ironically, the oldtimers/devs will be so rich by then they may not even care about fixing the issue.

Mobile wallets don't require downloading