Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread

[arallmuus]

A question, how do I get my $ 50 free bet? I would not have believed that I would type best and so I did not get any information about that 

So congratulations on getting the Yellow Cap this week and making it to top 10 !

We used to message Steve's account in Superbru and provide the sportsbet's username but I dont see his account participating this time so I think you could message him directly in bitcointalk regarding that

was that the most embarrassing performance from Man utd of all times? surely top 5 at least...who's gonna replace Ole after he gets sacked in a few hours? Conte?

including all the matches on last season, I'd say this is the worst so far. Imagine getting trashed by Liverpool in your own home and on top of that, it was 4 goals in the first half with Poba getting a red card after playing for 15 minutes lol. Pretty sure it cant get anything worse than this match in the future

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[BitcoinGirl.Club]

It's fantasy but I'm thinking of a minimum of 3-0 Liverpool today. Not that I think we're THAT good. But I think United are capable of being THAT bad. And one hopes OGS will go for damage limitation and thus invite us to score.

I think we should be ashamed of us not to believe in the boys LOL. I was in a fance and having hard time to pick a win but eventually decided to support the boys by a 1 - 2 win but oh boy!!!

0 - 5 against Utd!

Great work from Salah and others. In the last match it was Firmino, this match we had Salah. Who is going to be the next? Mane?

Staying in under the radar was not bad at all. But now I think we are exposing us too much 🤣

[tokeweed]

was that the most embarrassing performance from Man utd of all times? surely top 5 at least...who's gonna replace Ole after he gets sacked in a few hours? Conte?

He’ll be given the sack within 6 matches or so imho.  And those next 6 or so matches are gonna be tooough.  Most of them away.  Lol.

Not Conte, I think Zidane is the more possible guy to get the job.

Edit:  I mean if they can’t get the likes of Poch and Nagelsmann.

[Hhampuz]

was that the most embarrassing performance from Man utd of all times? surely top 5 at least...who's gonna replace Ole after he gets sacked in a few hours? Conte?

He’ll be given the sack within 6 matches or so imho.  And those next 6 or so matches are gonna be tooough.  Most of them away.  Lol.

Not Conte, I think Zidane is the more possible guy to get the job.

Depends on how they do in CL, I'd say. But yeah, wih the depth on United there is no way games like these should happen, they just can't play the first half - ever.. 

[tokeweed]

^  They’ll be playing Atalanta away next at the CL after playing Tottenham away.  That’s going to be a tough one.  And then they’ll be playing City.  Ugh...  I hope Solksjaer’s still around when they play Ranieri’s Watford. 

[swogerino]

I had Liverpool game yesterday 2-3 as a away win.I was drinking something with my family when I just saw on the TV-s at the coffee shop the result of 0-5 already for Liverpool in the 51 minute.I thought it would be a tough game but Liverpool totally deserved the win and the fact that Manchester United fans were leaving the stadium early during the second half says a lot about Manchester United shameful performance.

[buwaytress]

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/16/FM1bW.png

But surprisingly different ... how the hell does this guy manage to make such hardcore predictions and leave at the top in the pool.

i actually think he's being a lot more conservative in his predictions this season than in any other previous PL pools, i remember he used to go for several upsets in every matchweek, but not anymore...correct me if i'm wrong, @buwaytress 

I also just realized that he leading pool. Usually he makes quite a lot hardcore predictions, but in previous years it didn't helped him to achieve good positions in the pool. But probably this year he makes a bit less such bold predictions.

Yeah, I'm going to take full credit for this match heh. But yes, this is my 4th season in this pool and I played the first 3 the way I bet: go big on underdogs, thinking that if I get the right scores on unexpected outcomes more times than others. It's done me well betting wise since 2016, that's when I started keeping tally and betting on this style, when Liverpool were in Europa and our team today were slowly building up.

But after 3 seasons falling short, I thought Superbru is really suited to conservative predictions. Even getting the upset right seldom gets you 3 full points, so the advantage is slim and doesn't encourage outlandish predictions. So this season, I'm being more rational and keeping the majority of predictions with the favourites. Even the 4 upsets (when you pick an outcome less than 5% of SB community picked) I've picked so far weren't actually unexpected (Arsenal losing to Brentford, United losing to Leicester, City losing to Spurs).

And predicting Liverpool 4-0 also isn't as crazy as it seems if you've watched United play the last few games. It ended up 5-0 but Klopp even admitted they just played the last 20 minutes to prevent more injury, keeping the ball... old Klopp would have asked for more goals and with 10 men, United should have conceded plenty more.

Superbru's designed to reward conservative picks... the slam points especially, just grind out results and get slam points and they add up. Last 3 seasons I had high exact scores, high upset picks, but huge deficit of slam points.

That said, we're barely 25% into the season and it's a slippery slope once you have a bad week. I agree. Finding the draws are what's going to make the difference. And this pool's only getting more and more competitive!

[casperBGD]

~snip

Superbru's designed to reward conservative picks... the slam points especially, just grind out results and get slam points and they add up. Last 3 seasons I had high exact scores, high upset picks, but huge deficit of slam points.

That said, we're barely 25% into the season and it's a slippery slope once you have a bad week. I agree. Finding the draws are what's going to make the difference. And this pool's only getting more and more competitive!

agree, Superbru, but also all other predictive pools are suited for conservative picks
you cannot get enough upsets to be in the top, but being constant during the season will keep you in the upper part

nevertheless, congrats on 0:4 prediction, I did not expect that from Manchester, but it happened, they need new coach, we will see if that happen right now, or after few more rounds

[Trofo]

~snip

Superbru's designed to reward conservative picks... the slam points especially, just grind out results and get slam points and they add up. Last 3 seasons I had high exact scores, high upset picks, but huge deficit of slam points.

That said, we're barely 25% into the season and it's a slippery slope once you have a bad week. I agree. Finding the draws are what's going to make the difference. And this pool's only getting more and more competitive!

agree, Superbru, but also all other predictive pools are suited for conservative picks
you cannot get enough upsets to be in the top, but being constant during the season will keep you in the upper part

nevertheless, congrats on 0:4 prediction, I did not expect that from Manchester, but it happened, they need new coach, we will see if that happen right now, or after few more rounds

All season long predictions by default favor conservative/safe picks, it all evens out in the long run and favorites are favorites with reason. Upsets can get you weekly yellow cap but in the long run they will cost you. That being said, correct scores are a lottery and it comes down to having luck to convert a couple of those close scores to correct scores. That is usually the step that kills my rank. I get decent amount of results and more than average close scores but I never get those correct scores.

[buwaytress]

All season long predictions by default favor conservative/safe picks, it all evens out in the long run and favorites are favorites with reason. Upsets can get you weekly yellow cap but in the long run they will cost you. That being said, correct scores are a lottery and it comes down to having luck to convert a couple of those close scores to correct scores. That is usually the step that kills my rank. I get decent amount of results and more than average close scores but I never get those correct scores.

But shouldn't you always reward the aberration? Even in fantasy football, the winners tend to be the ones who saw value and form more than the ones who have the Ronaldos and Messis in the team. Return to the mean is one of the laws of football (one I believe in slightly anyway heh) but I do feel like if Superbru implemented a weighting system for points -- e.g. the more unexpected your prediction, the more points they're worth, then it'd encourage a little bit more risk-taking. With the current 1, 1.5 and 3 points being the multiplier for the points.

Like you said, problem now is correct scores are pure lottery (and anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves). So that's all we're encouraged to do. Pick the favourite outcome so we're not left out of the pack and leave it to chance to see who's got the closest to the mark.

[Trofo]

All season long predictions by default favor conservative/safe picks, it all evens out in the long run and favorites are favorites with reason. Upsets can get you weekly yellow cap but in the long run they will cost you. That being said, correct scores are a lottery and it comes down to having luck to convert a couple of those close scores to correct scores. That is usually the step that kills my rank. I get decent amount of results and more than average close scores but I never get those correct scores.

But shouldn't you always reward the aberration? Even in fantasy football, the winners tend to be the ones who saw value and form more than the ones who have the Ronaldos and Messis in the team. Return to the mean is one of the laws of football (one I believe in slightly anyway heh) but I do feel like if Superbru implemented a weighting system for points -- e.g. the more unexpected your prediction, the more points they're worth, then it'd encourage a little bit more risk-taking. With the current 1, 1.5 and 3 points being the multiplier for the points.

Like you said, problem now is correct scores are pure lottery (and anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves). So that's all we're encouraged to do. Pick the favourite outcome so we're not left out of the pack and leave it to chance to see who's got the closest to the mark.

Yeah you should reward those bigger odds somehow but it is not that simple. If you reward them properly, meaning multiplying with the odds in some way, you end up almost with betting. You could reward it like one extra point if your ML choice has odds over 3, and 2 extra points if it has odds over 6 but it complicates the game even further and i have a feeling Superbru is about ease of use and attracting the masses.

Disregard about Fantasy, there is almost no team in PL Fantasy that is without Salah, you can get few differentials correct and if you did not captain Salah you would still be behind. Fantasy rewards template teams and getting on bandwagons early. That way you are always close to the top and your team value is constantly growing. Time for differentials is in last couple of game weeks when you try to clinch that top spot in your mini league.

[casperBGD]

~snip

Like you said, problem now is correct scores are pure lottery (and anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves). So that's all we're encouraged to do. Pick the favourite outcome so we're not left out of the pack and leave it to chance to see who's got the closest to the mark.

yeah, correct scores are pure lottery, maybe someone thinks different, but you can just look at odds for exact scores and compare it to home/draw/away odds, and it is easy to figure out
but, Superbru has close scores, which should not be underestimated in the end, and they are favoring picks such as 2:0, 2:1, 1:2, 0:2 that have most close scores in most often happened results in all leagues, and some could bring you exact scores by luck as well

3:1, 1:3 have more close scores, but those are really rare exact scores in the end, and four mentioned above are better value by statistics exact/close (depend on the league as well)

[buwaytress]

Yeah you should reward those bigger odds somehow but it is not that simple. If you reward them properly, meaning multiplying with the odds in some way, you end up almost with betting. You could reward it like one extra point if your ML choice has odds over 3, and 2 extra points if it has odds over 6 but it complicates the game even further and i have a feeling Superbru is about ease of use and attracting the masses.

Superbru tracks community picks and that could be a better alternative, similar to something like crowd wisdom parimutuel betting where the farther away from majority you are, the bigger your share of the total points, and the earlier you put your picks in, the bigger your time weight multiplier. So you don't stick to odds but instead, stand out for being bold, and higher reward for being early.

Superbru actually already tracks this, giving different awards and recognition for early picks but yeah, making it standard pool standing does make points more complex. Mind you, I'm not complaining. Just recognising that for the most part, where we are in the table is more luck than anything else.

(And one day, someone crazy will hit that 10 exact score prize and they'll feel it was worth it all the time).

but, Superbru has close scores, which should not be underestimated in the end, and they are favoring picks such as 2:0, 2:1, 1:2, 0:2 that have most close scores in most often happened results in all leagues, and some could bring you exact scores by luck as well

3:1, 1:3 have more close scores, but those are really rare exact scores in the end, and four mentioned above are better value by statistics exact/close (depend on the league as well)

Yeah, actually 3-0 was my default Liverpool pick in the past and this season I'm doing much more 2-1s than I normally do, and it's worked out. Last game week felt risky putting 3:1 for both City and Arsenal, and it still worked out, but it's not something you want to do all the time.

[Betwrong]

I had Liverpool game yesterday 2-3 as a away win.I was drinking something with my family when I just saw on the TV-s at the coffee shop the result of 0-5 already for Liverpool in the 51 minute.I thought it would be a tough game but Liverpool totally deserved the win and the fact that Manchester United fans were leaving the stadium early during the second half says a lot about Manchester United shameful performance.

I'm a Liverpool fan, and yet again I wasn't optimistic enough in my prediction:



Although I knew that Man. United, when playing at home, beat Liverpool 3 - 2 in January this year, I predicted 1 - 3 in favour of Liverpool, but it turned out that I should have been more fanatical about my fav team.

Some away teams performed unexpectedly good this time. No one in our pool was even close to "Everton
2 - 5 Watford", and only one guy, Sojourner, was close to "Man. United 0 - 5 Liverpool".

To be fair, Chelsea, while playing at home, also surprised everyone with that 7-0.

Looking at the Leaderboard I see that Sojourner(buwaytress) is not only a good poker player.

[hilariousetc]

Probably neither Ronaldo nor Manchester have experienced such a humiliation for a long time, ^{[first half 0-4]}



But surprisingly different ... how the hell does this guy manage to make such hardcore predictions and leave at the top in the pool.

p.s. LFC, we are waiting for a photo report from the match!

Man U played like a Sunday league team in the first half. I thought United could bounce back so went with the draw.

was that the most embarrassing performance from Man utd of all times? surely top 5 at least...who's gonna replace Ole after he gets sacked in a few hours? Conte?

It's the players that are at fault. I'm not a fan of sacking managers after a bad run. United have been all over the place under Ollie but they did finish second last season. I'm not sure why clubs think going though managers constantly is somehow magically going to turn their form around. Who else is there left now? Zidane? Giggs? I doubt anyone is going to come in and change stuff up drastically but it's pretty embarrassing for United given the talent they've got on the pitch.

anyway, wth is going with Leeds united? they looked solid last season, showing exciting football and ultimately finishing in the top half of the league table...but this season they look like crap. Oh, and hell of a game at Goodison park, from 2-1 everton to a 4-2 comeback from Watford in just 10 minutes...Only 2 users in our pool predicted a Hornets win   Big upset

I don't think they've been playing bad, just not good and maybe a bit unlucky. Phillips and Bamford have been out for a fair few games as well. Leeds have got some good youngsters coming through so it's going to be interesting seeing how they effect the team if they're given more time.

[tokeweed]

^  I’ve been saying Zidane and it turns out he doesn’t manage any club for the time being.  He’s to have his own sabbatical like what Pep did.  And...  Giggs?  To manage United right after Solksjaer??  YES PLEASE!    The entertainment value is just too hard to pass up.  

[Welsh]

Well, lads I totally forgot about this again. You'd swear I have memory loss or something how I continuously forget about this competition. Anyway, I did say you could probably consider my entry a donation , and that appears so. I also used a temporary email, and I'll be honest I'm probably not going to go into the effort of remembering that considering I'm already several weeks behind .

It's alright, I don't mind picking up the wooden spoons.

He’ll be given the sack within 6 matches or so imho.  And those next 6 or so matches are gonna be tooough.  Most of them away.  Lol.

Not Conte, I think Zidane is the more possible guy to get the job.

Edit:  I mean if they can’t get the likes of Poch and Nagelsmann.

Honestly, if they haven't sacked him after losing to their biggest rivals by the biggest margin in their history, I doubt he's going to get sacked anytime soon. I'd put money on him lasting the season at least, if you take a look at Gary Neville on the post match discussions, he's trying his hardest not to throw Ole under the bus, and I'm wondering if the Glazers are trying to be cautious about sacking a Manchester United icon, after the back lash they've received recently.

Though, to be honest most fans would probably support him getting the sack despite being a icon.

[Trofo]

Honestly, if they haven't sacked him after losing to their biggest rivals by the biggest margin in their history, I doubt he's going to get sacked anytime soon. I'd put money on him lasting the season at least, if you take a look at Gary Neville on the post match discussions, he's trying his hardest not to throw Ole under the bus, and I'm wondering if the Glazers are trying to be cautious about sacking a Manchester United icon, after the back lash they've received recently.

Though, to be honest most fans would probably support him getting the sack despite being a icon.

You have a point here, if they have not sacked him after loosing 5:0 to Liverpool at home, they don't plan to do it anytime soon. This was a perfect opportunity and I don't think any fan would give them problems after performance like that, no matter him being an icon.

It is not just the result, United simply does not have a game to play against top clubs and with the players and budget under Ole disposition that is unforgivable. There is no shame in loosing to LFC, but loosing 5:0 almost without a fight...

[cryptofrka]

I would not go as far as to call Solskjaer a United legend. He is disposable for sure, I just think they are buying some time to find the replacement. They have a horrible schedule (Spurs, Atalanta, City) and sacking him now could derail their season even more and there aren't a lot of great managers available that would jump from their clubs into United seat right now.

Conte is interested and is the best candidate so far but the board apparently is not thrilled - because he is difficult to work with. Zidane maybe? But that would really be fun to see. Other than that, what is there? Rodgers?

[LTU_btc]

Conte is interested and is the best candidate so far but the board apparently is not thrilled - because he is difficult to work with. Zidane maybe? But that would really be fun to see. Other than that, what is there? Rodgers?

Yeah, Conte is tough coach and it's possible that he won't be accepted well by players. Zidane is interesting option and I don't know why there is not much talk about him. Rodgers, how? He is still in Leicester.