Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread

[buwaytress]

Back to back home games for Liverpool now in the PL against Man Utd and Arsenal. Will be tough but at Anfield not many teams get anything. Klopp 2.0 is cooking.

Miss the days when Arsenal games were full of goals and end with 3 points for us. I think Alisson back between the posts is the best news for us, timely too. He made 2 great saves that I don't think any other keeper would have.

Yep, we don't thrill but we still manage to collect the points somehow. With Villa leading, it looks like we'll finish this round on top.
To be honest, Villa is one of the nicest surprises of the season. I feel they'll manage to secure top 4 - they look way better than Spurs, United and Newcastle.

Couldn't agree with you more. I'm still sore from Villa leading 2-0 on the final day of season under Gerrard when old boy Coutinho almost helped us win the title, but I think this team's day in the sun was a long time coming. I actually wouldn't be mad at all if they win the league. Beat the title holders and runner's up back to back with clean sheets, you deserve it all.

[slaman29]

Crazy week of English football, La Liga also had surprises, even Bundesliga but I think nobody expected Liverpool to be top after failing Champions League last season. Enjoy, LFC_Bitcoin, buway, cryptofrka

Unai Emery is Manager of the Month, regardless what happens after this for sure.

Of course he is going to be the best manager of the month as his team beat both Arsenal and Manchester City within the same week.That is something not many teams can be doing or have the possibilities to do so,I personally never thought Aston Villa to be winning both games and with the same result it shows the consistency and now they are contenders of the title without a doubt.We cannot call them as a surprise team while they keep winning against stronger teams in the Premier League as in this league all teams are strong nevertheless.

We can call them surprise team why not? Everybody was raving about Newcastle, and even Spurs when they supposedly got rid of the Spursy tag but I think a lot of people expected Unai to fail. Remember at Arsenal they kept saying about his bad English and Arsenal players said they didn't understand him. No complains from Aston Villa players lol

[KTChampions]

Just in case anyone wants to know how to be 100% accurate:



 
The overall odds were, of course, relatively large, but if you look at the individual outcomes, almost all of them were “reliable.” I had my doubts about Newcastle and took the double chance - how could I have expected them to lose 3-0? Other outcomes are also far from obvious. I think that if I bet on opposite outcomes, the odds would be more than 100 for sure.
I hope with this bet I have exhausted my limit of bad luck and the subsequent ones will finally work (there have already been several bets with large odds like 35 where literally one outcome separated me from victory).

Meanwhile, bookmakers have updated their title odds and City's odds have dropped dramatically:

Manchester City 1.85

Arsenal 3.92

Liverpool 4.41

Aston Villa 16.66

Now everything looks fair, much more adequate than a week earlier when City’s odds were 1.25, and even a little earlier 1.1 (by the way, isn’t this a record-breaking drop in outrights?).

[arallmuus]

Liverpool 4.41

Aston Villa 16.66

Now everything looks fair, much more adequate than a week earlier when City’s odds were 1.25, and even a little earlier 1.1 (by the way, isn’t this a record-breaking drop in outrights?).

Both of these two odds looks like a proper odds to bet on outright bet for the remaining months. Liverpool has a good chance obviously to win the EPL but Aston Villa might be the dark horse this season just like Girona on La Liga. Putting small amount on Aston Villa might not seems like a bad idea after all and 3/4 of their next fixtures seems like games that they could win easily


Golden cap winner with only 9 points this round, a very low scoring round and I got up 2 position even with only getting 5 points this round

[buwaytress]

Luton, poor guys. Losing by a goal to the strongest teams but not enough.

Yes, this is a wonderful experiment, but now the situation has become sharply opposite: a crowd of lagging behind easily makes all-in bets to catch up with the leaders (who seem to be playing reliably), but since there are many lagging behind (and their total chances are high), this provokes the leaders too take more risks. In general, we'll see how it all ends, but I can assume that the volatility here will be too great to talk about a serious competition.
We need to come up with something in between. For example, so that the one who goes against the opinion of 90% of the participants receives more points (we need to come up with some kind of proportion for different ratios). It's too unfair when 15 people get 3 points for an accurate score of 2-1, and someone gets 3 points for a score of 4-0.
I understand that this is all difficult to implement (especially manual counting - this should be avoided), I’m just speculating.

Yeah, that was an unexpected outcome -- but I guess it's even better that now people are forced to risk, while at the same time, leaders are enticed to keep up, but I suspect the "slow and steady" will have a few winners come the end.

It gets even better once game selections dry up too!

I definitely like that concept of rarity bonus, weighted points for unpopular picks. It's all possible with formula but just the amount of work -- and requiring more careful submissions from 50+ people, that extra effort is nice but few estimate how much work it requires. Also, the issue of objectivity, might need organiser to NOT participate.

[Igebotz]

Crazy week of English football, La Liga also had surprises, even Bundesliga but I think nobody expected Liverpool to be top after failing Champions League last season. Enjoy, LFC_Bitcoin, buway, cryptofrka

I can't believe I placed two or three side bets on Chelsea having a better campaign than Liverpool this season, and now they're leading the league and Chelsea isn't even close. Who could have predicted that Liverpool would be doing so well given the major overhaul they underwent last and this season? Klopp isn't getting enough credit for building this amazing project with little resources.

Can't even banter buwatress this season....

[casperBGD]

Yep, we don't thrill but we still manage to collect the points somehow. With Villa leading, it looks like we'll finish this round on top.
To be honest, Villa is one of the nicest surprises of the season. I feel they'll manage to secure top 4 - they look way better than Spurs, United and Newcastle.

Couldn't agree with you more. I'm still sore from Villa leading 2-0 on the final day of season under Gerrard when old boy Coutinho almost helped us win the title, but I think this team's day in the sun was a long time coming. I actually wouldn't be mad at all if they win the league. Beat the title holders and runner's up back to back with clean sheets, you deserve it all.

will quote my pre-season post, where AI software predicted Villa in top3

~snip
actually, some official EPL AI super-computer predicts City to be on top, Newcastle on 2nd, Villa on 3rd and Arsenal to close CL spots, can't find that image at the moment

if I am not wrong, Liverpool is seen on position 7, sure that Everton is on 12th, and for relegation Burnley, Forest and Luton

although they missed Liverpool on 7th, Newcastle being on 2nd, and probably missed Sheffield to stay in the league, but that could still change on expense of Forest that it indicated as third team to relegate

[SATWAT]

Liverpool 4.41

Aston Villa 16.66

Now everything looks fair, much more adequate than a week earlier when City’s odds were 1.25, and even a little earlier 1.1 (by the way, isn’t this a record-breaking drop in outrights?).

Both of these two odds looks like a proper odds to bet on outright bet for the remaining months. Liverpool has a good chance obviously to win the EPL but Aston Villa might be the dark horse this season just like Girona on La Liga. Putting small amount on Aston Villa might not seems like a bad idea after all and 3/4 of their next fixtures seems like games that they could win easily


Golden cap winner with only 9 points this round, a very low scoring round and I got up 2 position even with only getting 5 points this round

Surprises and shocking results are coming frequently and things are looking not easy for the top teams to stay at their current spots Aston Villa and Girona are surely leading the tables from nowhere but can they keep this momentum in second half of the season this is interesting question.

I have good result in this round and now expecting better in coming weeks as well after having the worst time in early rounds of this season which bring me down in pool table from the 15 to now 40 hopefully will be back in top ten in next few weeks Liverpool is going to hold lead for some weeks with City is currently out of the order.

[slaman29]

Crazy week of English football, La Liga also had surprises, even Bundesliga but I think nobody expected Liverpool to be top after failing Champions League last season. Enjoy, LFC_Bitcoin, buway, cryptofrka

I can't believe I placed two or three side bets on Chelsea having a better campaign than Liverpool this season, and now they're leading the league and Chelsea isn't even close. Who could have predicted that Liverpool would be doing so well given the major overhaul they underwent last and this season? Klopp isn't getting enough credit for building this amazing project with little resources.

Can't even banter buwatress this season....

I would have done the same honestly, you got some really exciting new players while Liverpool looked like they got scrappings. Mac Allister is ok I like Argentinians but I didn't think he was that good. Wataru Endo also I thought was a downgrade but he already got more assist + goals than many his teammates in midfield. I guess Klopp really is a great player manager. Everyone was talking about his 7th season curse like at Dortmund but you're right, Klopp does it over and over again. Turns semi good players into very good ones to make a great team.

I respect Pep for sure but he always has polished players already.

[KTChampions]

Liverpool 4.41

Aston Villa 16.66

Now everything looks fair, much more adequate than a week earlier when City’s odds were 1.25, and even a little earlier 1.1 (by the way, isn’t this a record-breaking drop in outrights?).

Both of these two odds looks like a proper odds to bet on outright bet for the remaining months. Liverpool has a good chance obviously to win the EPL but Aston Villa might be the dark horse this season just like Girona on La Liga. Putting small amount on Aston Villa might not seems like a bad idea after all and 3/4 of their next fixtures seems like games that they could win easily
~

Why did you miss Arsenal? Is 3.92 too low or do you consider them historical losers?  In general, yes, they have long been something like Tottenham, zero trophies for many years, but I see the logic in the fact that every season they are getting better and if this season they take the title, then in my opinion it will be mega logical and consistent. If we talk about losers, then Liverpool have good experience in this - they have lost the title “at the finish line” many times. Overall, I trust the bookmakers here and I think Arsenal's title is more likely than Liverpool's.

By the way, it is no longer possible to bet on the Girona title with good odds - after they beat Barcelona, the bookmakers sharply changed their opinion and now the quote is 5.88 (and before the game it was 20+ lol).

Yes, this is a wonderful experiment, but now the situation has become sharply opposite: a crowd of lagging behind easily makes all-in bets to catch up with the leaders (who seem to be playing reliably), but since there are many lagging behind (and their total chances are high), this provokes the leaders too take more risks. In general, we'll see how it all ends, but I can assume that the volatility here will be too great to talk about a serious competition.
We need to come up with something in between. For example, so that the one who goes against the opinion of 90% of the participants receives more points (we need to come up with some kind of proportion for different ratios). It's too unfair when 15 people get 3 points for an accurate score of 2-1, and someone gets 3 points for a score of 4-0.
I understand that this is all difficult to implement (especially manual counting - this should be avoided), I’m just speculating.

Yeah, that was an unexpected outcome -- but I guess it's even better that now people are forced to risk, while at the same time, leaders are enticed to keep up, but I suspect the "slow and steady" will have a few winners come the end.

It gets even better once game selections dry up too!

I definitely like that concept of rarity bonus, weighted points for unpopular picks. It's all possible with formula but just the amount of work -- and requiring more careful submissions from 50+ people, that extra effort is nice but few estimate how much work it requires. Also, the issue of objectivity, might need organiser to NOT participate.

The effort required to conduct an “ideal” (and even ordinary) competition is truly enormous, so I specifically highlighted this point. But technical implementation is one thing (I still believe that everything should be automated in order to avoid subjective issues and be humane towards the organizers), but the format of the competition itself is another. It would be interesting to first come up with an “ideal” format, then you could think about how to implement it technically. I hope other participants will also suggest some ideas for improving the polls.

[Igebotz]

I respect Pep for sure but he always has polished players already.

There were a lot of unrefined players. Pep is also polished; he brings out the best in his players and expects more from them. Pep is without a doubt the greatest manager of our time; he repeatedly shown that investing without vision does not ensure success. Pep has not spent anywhere near what Chelsea and Manchester City have over the years, and yet they are nowhere near the level of Manchester City.

We've spent more than €1bn on transfer and yet our team is on the same level with Fulham and Bournemouth. It took Pep less than £700m to assemble the current Manchester city squad.

[casperBGD]

~snip

By the way, it is no longer possible to bet on the Girona title with good odds - after they beat Barcelona, the bookmakers sharply changed their opinion and now the quote is 5.88 (and before the game it was 20+ lol).

it is a bit off-topic, but now is a good chance to bet on others, not on Girona
at least if you are being realistic, and expect Girona to fail at some point, which I don't say will happen, but it is widely expected

~snip
We've spent more than €1bn on transfer and yet our team is on the same level with Fulham and Bournemouth. It took Pep less than £700m to assemble the current Manchester city squad.

Fulham and Bournemouth are proper teams compared to Chelsea

[buwaytress]

Anyone know where to bet on next manager to be sacked? As soon as United lose tonight, I'm going to look for odds haha.

The effort required to conduct an “ideal” (and even ordinary) competition is truly enormous, so I specifically highlighted this point. But technical implementation is one thing (I still believe that everything should be automated in order to avoid subjective issues and be humane towards the organizers), but the format of the competition itself is another. It would be interesting to first come up with an “ideal” format, then you could think about how to implement it technically. I hope other participants will also suggest some ideas for improving the polls.

I think the way is with small steps for sure. BSFL was a big step in interaction, I hope UCL is a small step in risk reflection, but I remember the "resistance" with all that "extra work" required. I know for sure there is a way to automate, but that required coding, and possibly hosting. Even the spreadsheets BSFL and UCL use needed coding work (that isn't free, by the way). It would require -- more than anything else technically possible -- willingness for someone(s) to volunteer time and effort.

[Igebotz]

Fulham and Bournemouth are proper teams compared to Chelsea

Com'on man we're bad at the moment but we ain't on the same level with those shitty team. The Chelsea team are total strangers playing together for the first time. I'm not surprised and I don't expect much from Someone who made Messi and Neymar look average at PSG. Poch lack man management.

Anyone know where to bet on next manager to be sacked? As soon as United lose tonight, I'm going to look for odds haha.

Russian bookies offer such market. ETH is currently at 2.5 on 22bet to get sacked.

I see ETH leading the team until the end of the season; he isn't that horrible and they are only a few points away from the top four. I'm willing to place a $50 side bet with you that ETH will survive until January 1st of next year

[KTChampions]

Anyone know where to bet on next manager to be sacked? As soon as United lose tonight, I'm going to look for odds haha.

Russian bookies offer such market. ETH is currently at 2.5 on 22bet to get sacked.

I see ETH leading the team until the end of the season; he isn't that horrible and they are only a few points away from the top four. I'm willing to place a $50 side bet with you that ETH will survive until January 1st of next year

Are you sure this is a Russian bookmaker? Their details are in Cyprus and being in Russia I was unable to access this site. Using VPN (through the UK) I couldn’t either. Tomorrow, with a PC and a more flexible VPN, I will try to study what they offer, but I can’t say that they look trustworthy.

After yesterday's defeat to Bayern, Ten Hag's chances of being sacked have certainly increased. And it amazes me that he seems to be deliberately adding fuel to the fire at the post-match press conference: “We played well and did not deserve to lose.” Hmm... I wonder what you can count on with just one shot on target in the entire game? Plus, one way or another, the fact that Copenhagen (!!!) qualified for the 1/8 worsens the impression of United’s failure.

The fact that United is formally not far from the top 4 does not mean that they have a chance to get there. Bookmakers estimate this probability as 1 in 8, and after the defeat to Liverpool (which I am 99% sure of) it will be something like 1 in 10. I’m not sure yet that I want to place any bets (I need to think about the odds), but it seems to me that he could be sacked after the game with Liverpool.

[Igebotz]

Are you sure this is a Russian bookmaker? Their details are in Cyprus and being in Russia I was unable to access this site. Using VPN (through the UK) I couldn’t either. Tomorrow, with a PC and a more flexible VPN, I will try to study what they offer, but I can’t say that they look trustworthy.

We refer to 22bet and 1xbet as Russian bookies, they both have the same market options, if you can't access 22bet you can try 1xbet. These are some of the famous fiat bookies in my region.

The fact that United is formally not far from the top 4 does not mean that they have a chance to get there. Bookmakers estimate this probability as 1 in 8, and after the defeat to Liverpool (which I am 99% sure of) it will be something like 1 in 10. I’m not sure yet that I want to place any bets (I need to think about the odds), but it seems to me that he could be sacked after the game with Liverpool.

Leicester city odd to win the league was 1000. Trust bookmakers estimation at your own risk.

[slaman29]

I respect Pep for sure but he always has polished players already.

There were a lot of unrefined players. Pep is also polished; he brings out the best in his players and expects more from them. Pep is without a doubt the greatest manager of our time; he repeatedly shown that investing without vision does not ensure success. Pep has not spent anywhere near what Chelsea and Manchester City have over the years, and yet they are nowhere near the level of Manchester City.

We've spent more than €1bn on transfer and yet our team is on the same level with Fulham and Bournemouth. It took Pep less than £700m to assemble the current Manchester city squad.

But I think still, he has been able to spend what he wants to get a big squad of what he needs. I still think it's interesting to see if he can do the same level if he had a smaller budget. He admits himself Klopp's teams both at Dortmund and Liverpool are what pushed him to be better. I think, strange, but if he and Klopp switched Bayern/Dortmund City/Liverpool both would do badly. Klopp wouldn't know what to do with big budget and Pep wouldn't know what to do with more limited teams.

The fact that United is formally not far from the top 4 does not mean that they have a chance to get there. Bookmakers estimate this probability as 1 in 8, and after the defeat to Liverpool (which I am 99% sure of) it will be something like 1 in 10. I’m not sure yet that I want to place any bets (I need to think about the odds), but it seems to me that he could be sacked after the game with Liverpool.

Disgraceful to the memory of Ferguson and the amount they pay to lousy players. Losing while trying is fine but the players there ren't even trying their best. Closest example was PSG honestly.

[buwaytress]

Did all of my picks with ease yesterday, gut was good enough and Spurs delivered 3 points so I'm very pleased but I am in two minds about Newcastle. Ragged and broken, Almiron dragging his body across the line most games recently, while Fulham have been finding some great connections across their forwards. Harry our old boy really settling in but even Willian is contributing with limited minutes. The latter won't play today nursing a hamstring but Jimenez is also one of my old favourites keen to relight his fire.

A draw seems likely but Fulham maybe has the edge here?

@Igebotz shitty odds from a book I'll never use but happy to put down a 1mbtc sidebet on ETH sack before 1 Jan. It means nothing but one United manager oversaw their last games as defeats to Klopp's Liverpool.Hate the stat but Klopp has done this to at least 5 managers already in 7 EPL seasons. Tough!

[swogerino]

Did all of my picks with ease yesterday, gut was good enough and Spurs delivered 3 points so I'm very pleased but I am in two minds about Newcastle. Ragged and broken, Almiron dragging his body across the line most games recently, while Fulham have been finding some great connections across their forwards. Harry our old boy really settling in but even Willian is contributing with limited minutes. The latter won't play today nursing a hamstring but Jimenez is also one of my old favourites keen to relight his fire.

A draw seems likely but Fulham maybe has the edge here?

@Igebotz shitty odds from a book I'll never use but happy to put down a 1mbtc sidebet on ETH sack before 1 Jan. It means nothing but one United manager oversaw their last games as defeats to Klopp's Liverpool.Hate the stat but Klopp has done this to at least 5 managers already in 7 EPL seasons. Tough!

That is what explain why bookies give Newcastle 1.84 as odds in today game while they are playing at home against Fulham and honestly based on the two teams overall performance Newcastle should have had a 1.55 odd as a maximum in normal conditions.I assume bookies know more than us and sometimes give the exact odds like they need to compared to other times where they play tricks on us by intentionally increasing the odds of the favorite teams.

Tottenham for me did what they needed to do yesterday night and get the three points home and it was a very much needed relief after them failing so many games to achieve a victory before that game.

[un_rank]

...but I am in two minds about Newcastle. Ragged and broken, Almiron dragging his body across the line most games recently, while Fulham have been finding some great connections across their forwards...

A draw seems likely but Fulham maybe has the edge here?

They have been out of form and out of sorts, I will call them the most hit by the schedule of matches, so in the bright side of things, dropping out of European football all together could be good for them in the long run. They can focus on the league and build momentum to take them into the top four again. But before they can fix up the team, they have to face high flying Fulham first.

Perfectly balanced games sometimes make a draw look attractive, but I just cannot see it in this match, with Newcastle being at home.

- Jay -