Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[buwaytress]

Wrong upset to back last night, just goes to show nothing is guaranteed, not even with Bayern in the Bundesliga. But we return to the Premier League with an exciting round of games tonight.

Gambler in me keeps wanting to bet the underdog, so I will give West Ham a backing in this weekend's opener, and another on Liverpool to win at Chelsea, to avenge their League Cup exit.

Game 1. West Ham vs Man Utd. 100 units on Hammers to win @4.11. BK odds: 4.1. Nitro odds:4.095
Odds advantage: 0.24%
Units advantage: 1 unit

Game 2. Chelsea vs Liverpool. 100 units on Liverpool to win @2.64. BK odds: 2.64. Nitro odds:2.624
Odds advantage: 0.61%
Units advantage: 1.6 units

Running units advantage after 28 bets: +121.87 (+2.6)

Running units after 26 bets (11W|15L): +1,395.96 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Nothing is sweeter than a big underdog win, against your main rival, and we'll bask in West Ham's win over United to make up for recent losses. Liverpool snatched a point at the Bridge, showing you can't always win them all but that's okay.

Only 1 premier league game so I'll take a parlay on the evening Serie A. Today, we see BetKing's slight advantage over BitcoinRush, which means they automatically beat Nitro (as Nitro is always lower than BCR), so a first parlay on BK.

Game 1. Parma vs Empoli. BK Over 2 goals @1.43. BCR odds: 1.43. Nitro odds:1.419
Odds advantage: 0.78%
Units advantage: 1.1 units

Game 2. Sassuolo vs AC Milan. BK Milan WIN @2.18. BCR odds: 2.16. Nitro odds:2.147
Odds advantage: 0.93%
Units advantage: 2 units

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BetKing @3.117. BCR Parlay @3.091. Nitro Parlay 3.047
Parlay Odds advantage: 0.84%
Parlay Units advantage: 2.6 units

Running units advantage after 29 bets: +124.47 (+2.6)

Running units after 28 bets (12W|16L): +1,606.96 (+211 units)

[buwaytress]

Skipped a day yesterday, after losing the parlay by a goal, damn you low-scoring Serie A.

But we wet our lips on tonight's spread of Champions League fare, where last week we saw 2 surprises with City and Spurs losing on the Tuesday. I can't see a repeat of that, and United are sure to want to purge their souls, even if it's a drab win, they'll do it, not for Mou but for their sick fans.

So a big 5-legged parlay is in order! BetKing takes the slight advantage

Game 1. Hoffenheim vs Manchester City. City WIN @1.38. BCR: @1.37. Nitro: 1.338

Game 2. Valencia vs Man Utd. Utd WIN @1.79. BCR odds: 1.78. Nitro odds:1.729

Game 3. Real Madrid vs CSKA Moscow. Real WIN @1.57. BCR odds: 1.56. Nitro odds:1.533

Game 4. Young Boys vs Juventus. Juventus Milan WIN @1.22. BCR odds: 1.22. Nitro odds:1.213

Game 5. Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lyon. Lyon WIN @1.99. BCR odds: 2.0. Nitro odds:1.949

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BetKing @9.4155. BCR Parlay @9.2822. Nitro Parlay 8.36
Parlay Odds advantage: 1.44%
Parlay Units advantage: 13.33 units - advantage over Nitro is a massive 12.6% advantage or 105.55 units! That's more than a 100-unit bet I typically make!

Running units advantage after 30 bets: +137.8 (+13.33)

Running units after 29 bets (12W|17L): +1,506.96 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Poor performance from our heavyweights in Europe. Lyon scrambled back to make a draw, Real Madrid's inexplicable deterioration in quality makes them so incredibly amateur sometimes, United, well, Mourinho.

Anyone betting the underdog in all of last night's matches would have made >10/1 nett!

We seek panacea in Liverpool tonight on a single bet, but I'm not afraid to take another parlay.

Straight bet for 200 units: Napoli vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN with BetKing @2.25. BCR odds: 2.24 Nitro odds:2.217
Odds advantage: 0.45%
Units advantage: 1

And 3-legged parlay:
Game 1. Napoli vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.24. BCR: @2.23. Nitro: 2.217 (odds changed as was choosing parlay)

Game 2. Porto vs Galatasaray. Porto WIN @1.54. BCR odds: 1.54. Nitro odds:1.53

Game 3. Tottenham vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @2.02. BCR odds: 2. Nitro odds:1.988

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BetKing @6.9681. BCR Parlay @6.871. Nitro Parlay 6.743
Odds advantage: 1.41%
Units advantage: 9.71 units

Running units advantage after 32 bets: +148.51 (+10.71)

Running units after 30 bets (12W|18L): +1,406.96 (-100 units)

[DarkStar_alt]

Ouch, that Liverpool upset was not very good for your bets 

[buwaytress]

Ouch, that Liverpool upset was not very good for your bets 

NO it wasn't. I keep getting bitten because I add Liverpool to my bets. I'll just hope it's a blip and nothing more. Win on Saturday would kickstart everything again... dread to think of what a draw or worse would do though.

For tonight, we return to the "lesser" Europe to seek salvation, courtesy of Europa League.

Game 1. Qarabag vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @1.42. BCR odds: @1.41. Nitro odds: 1.4

Game 2. Rosenberg vs RB Leipzig. Leipzig WIN @1.72. BCR odds: 1.69. Nitro odds:1.683

Game 2. AC Milan vs Olympiacos. Milan WIN @1.39. BCR odds: 1.39. Nitro odds:1.378

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BetKing @3.39. BCR Parlay @3.311. Nitro Parlay 3.247
Odds advantage: 2.39%
Units advantage: 7.9 units

Running units advantage after 33 bets: +156.41 (+7.9)

Running units after 32 bets (12W|20L): +1,106.96 (-300 units)

[buwaytress]

Some relief for the "bankroll" from last night's Europa League parlay, narrowly avoided some favourites like Celtic and Bordeaux who were the latest victims of upsets, or have their quality actually deteriorated? We'll see.

Going for two high-scoring parlays on the Friday night solos of Bundesliga and English Premier League, and as typical BitcoinRush offers the best odds on Over/Unders.

Brighton and the Hammers have been abject, but you can't really blame the former having to come up against the current Top 3 in their opening matches, so they'll savour this opportunity at home even without a good replacement for their injured striker. West Ham meanwhile, are remembering how to play good football and will ride high from their United victory. In Germany, Bremen and Wolfsburg have been scoring almost 2 a game as they enter an early struggle for Europa League places, so game on, methinks!


Game 1. Brighton & Hove Albion vs West Ham. Over 2.5 @2.08. BK odds: @2.03. Nitro odds: 2.073

Game 2. Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg. Over 2.5 @1.82. BK odds: 1.77. Nitro odds:1.804

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BCR @3.7849. BK Parlay @3.59. Nitro Parlay 3.74
Odds advantage: 1.2%
Units advantage: 4.49 units

Running units advantage after 34 bets: +160.9 (+4.49)

Running units after 33 bets (13W|20L): +1,345.96 (+239 units)

[buwaytress]

So the teams couldn't score last night, what a bummer, while Serie A and La Liga actually lit up the night. So much for league reputations!

Premier League is back tonight, so we always know plenty of upsets to look forward to, so I'll pick one: Rafa Benitez and Newcastle. So many reasons: United are playing like they're lost, and Newcastle have never won. Mourinho didn't exactly inspire confidence at pre-match saying "it would be a nice if they won". The Newcastle that won at Old Trafford 4 years ago aren't the same as today, but please Benitez, surprise us all by attacking today. You don't even have to be that good, United are brittle at the back.

Single bet for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @9.12. BCR @8.95. Nitro @8.892
Odds advantage: 1.9%
Units advantage: 17 units

Running units advantage after 35 bets: +177.9 (+17)

Running units after 34 bets (13W|21L): +1,245.96 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Well, what a game to have bet on. Who would have thought Newcastle would attack at Old Trafford, who would have thought they would go 2-0 up in 10 minutes, who would have thought they'd get 10 shots on target (!!!). It would have been a legendary x9 bet, but never underestimate United, still got champion's pedigree in their blood. 3-2 win, poor Benitez, but this is how you lose a wager...

Today I go for another simple bet. Don't want to watch any other game.

Liverpool vs Manchester City.

Single bet for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking Liverpool WIN @2.59. BCR @2.55. Nitro @2.535
Odds advantage: 1.57%
Units advantage: 4 units

Running units advantage after 36 bets: +181.9 (+4)

Running units after 35 bets (13W|22L): +1,145.96 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Liverpool's costing me dearly, winless in 4 games, but form is temporary, and we have a 12-day break for internationals to let them get back on track.

Dipping into the lower leagues today for some interesting odds and parlays, I fancy Zaragoza for a tight win in Segunda, while Xanthi in the Greek super league can make the most of their home edge over mid-table rivals Larisa Ael. And to spice things up, Cologne from 2nd Bundesliga to complete the 3 legged parlay.

Game 1. Real Zaragoza vs Osasuna. Zaragoza WIN @2.2. BCR odds: @2.18. Nitro odds: 2.168

Game 2. Xanthi vs Larisa Ael. Xanthi WIN @1.8. BCR odds: 1.78. Nitro odds:1.753

Game 2. FC Cologne vs Duisburg. Cologne WIN @1.32. BCR odds: 1.3. Nitro odds:1.29

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BetKing @5.22. BCR Parlay @5.029. Nitro Parlay 4.903
Odds advantage: 3.8%
Units advantage: 19.1 units

Running units advantage after 37 bets: +201 (+19.1)

Running units after 36 bets (13W|23L): +1,045.96 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

With last night's loss, running profit dips below 1k units, been a string of losses. Zaragoza played better as did Cologne, but football doesn't always reward the better team. Today lots of picks in EFL Cup but I don't have confidence in them, so I'll try my luck with the women's U19, where the goals can flow and have given me good wins on Overs.

BetKing doesn't seem to have those games, so only comparing to Nitro today. BitcoinRush is generally very good odds on these more exotic games anyway.

Game 1. Finland U19 vs Hungary U19. Over 2.5 @1.7. Nitro odds: 1.689

Game 2. Moldova U19 vs Macedonia U19. Over 2.5 @1.78. . Nitro odds:1.76

Game 3. Azerbaijan U19 vs Cyprus U19. Over 2.5 @1.5. Nitro odds:1.484

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BitcoinRush @4.5305. Nitro Parlay 4.411
Odds advantage: 2.71%
Units advantage: 11.95 units

Running units advantage after 38 bets: +212.95 (+11.95)

Running units after 37 bets (13W|24L): +945.96 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Good day for me yesterday, caught out good odds on live games and also caught a nice value spike, when Australia was cruising at the start and booked in Pakistan at 2.6, they'll surely wrap up the game today onwards. Won't post live bets as they're rare for me and impossible to compare.

Our parlays worked out beautifully, with Legs 2 and 3 wrapped up even before half time. Finland made us wait til 69th minute to make it 3-0 after scoring a 1st min goal but went on to record a 7-0 romp. Watched 15 minutes of the Denmark-Netherlands UEFA qualification, they were 1-1 before 10 minutes... with all due respect, it's rare to see a 0-0 in women's especially U21 and below.

We go again for Over/Unders, this time with Africa Cup of Nations, who always give me joy. Might be a low scoring one for Kenya/Ethiopia, so we'll go for less risky Over 2. Lines not available on Betking.

Game 1. Ethiopia vs Kenya. Over 2 @1.88. Nitro odds:1.868

Game 2. Zambia vs Guinea-Bissau. Over 2 @1.76. Nitro odds:1.748

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BitcoinRush @3.3239. Nitro Parlay 3.265
Odds advantage: 1.8%
Units advantage: 5.89 units

Running units advantage after 39 bets: +218.84 (+5.89)

Running units after 38 bets (14W|24L): +1,299.01 (+353.05 units)

[buwaytress]

Turns out I was right (against my betting) for the Kenya/Ethiopia scoreless draw. The East African teams of late haven't been able to score properly, even if the high altitudes didn't bother them before.

Right, then we move on to the friendly-not-friendly UEFA Nations League. I wasn't impressed at all by the openers, but I wonder if we'll get more joy from the outsiders so we'll pick on them to push for full results in tonight's parlay. We'll do a tough pick for Azerbaijan to pip Faroe Islands. The Central Asians (yes I still consider them Asian!) are actually a decent footballing people, if only they'd invest more into their national team, but they should at least score against Faroe Islands, who themselves aren't likely to score.

Game 1. Faroe Islands vs Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan WIN @2.63. Bitcoinrush: 2.66. Nitro: 2.645

Game 2. Kosovo vs Malta. Kosovo WIN @1.26. BCR:1.23. Nitro: 1.241

Game 3. Lithuania vs Romania. Romania WIN @1.69. BCR:1.68. Nitro: 1.67

Even margins as it turns out for BetKing and BCR today, so we use Nitro as comparison.

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BCR @5.6. Nitro Parlay 5.482
Odds advantage: 2.15%
Units advantage: 11.8 units

Running units advantage after 40 bets: +230.64 (+11.

Running units after 39 bets (14W|25L): +1,199.01 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Solid wins for all our picks to complete the parlay. I still think the odds on Azerbaijan were very good value, and maybe we won't find similar value for much long more if the UEFA Nations League matures for those groups.

We'll do the same tonight, picking favourites and throwing in a risk on San Marino letting in at least 3 goals. Odds on that not available for BCR or Nitro, so we'll leave that out of the calculations. Lux actually did pretty well recently but I can't see them beating or drawing Belarus...

Game 1. Austria vs N Ireland. Austria WIN @1.6. Bitcoinrush: 1.61. Nitro: 1.596

Game 2. Moldova vs San Marino. Moldova over 2.5 @1.65. BCR/Nitro: N/A

Game 3. Belgium vs Switzerland. Belgium WIN @1.51. BCR:1.68. Nitro: 1.5

Game 4. Belarus vs Luxembourg. Belarus WIN @1.61. Nitro: 1.598

BCR had a tiny advantage over these selections, but I wanted to put in the Moldova line, so sticking to BK and using Nitro as comparison, assuming even odds for Game 2.

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @6.45. Nitro Parlay 6.3162
Odds advantage: 2.12%
Units advantage: 13.38 units

====

I want another ambitious parlay on friendlies, which BK doesn't have. We'll go for a tasty encounter backing Southeast and East Asian teams:

Game 1. Malaysia vs Sri Lanka. Malaysia WIN @1.27. Nitro: 1.256

Game 2. Mongolia vs Singapore. Singapore WIN @1.32. Nitro: 1.312

Game 3. Uruguay vs S Korea. Over 2 goals @1.82. BCR:1.68. Nitro: 1.804

Game 4. Panama vs Japan. Over 2 goals @1.43. Nitro: 1.422

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Bitcoinrush @4.368. Nitro Parlay 4.227
Odds advantage: 3.34%
Units advantage: 14.1 units

Running units advantage after 42 bets: +258.12 (+27.48)

Running units after 40 bets (15W|25L): +1,659.01 (+460 units)

[JanpriX]

Really really close. That Moldova - San Marino bet  . If they've given another minute, I think they'll be able to score a goal again.

But man, that 2nd parlay really killed it. High five on this one. 

[buwaytress]

Really really close. That Moldova - San Marino bet  . If they've given another minute, I think they'll be able to score a goal again.

But man, that 2nd parlay really killed it. High five on this one. 

I know, right? 17 shots on target, 14 shots off... I will never understand why some teams will defend with their lives when they've already lost. I would just go out and hit a team that's pouring everything on me on the counter. On another day, this would easily have been 10-0.

Thanks for the high-5! I was really hoping to score 3 parlays consecutively, but 2 out of 3, and at x4 and above, I'll take that any day, all day.

Hope you're liking my picks! I know it all looks like risky parlays, but sometimes 1 really good value pick just deserves to get the extra padding.

[buwaytress]

Incredible day yesterday as it was just 1 goal shy of a perfect double parlay win. Singapore and Malaysia tried really hard but eventually broke down their teams, and it turns out Over 2.5 on the remainders would still have won (and actually brought the parlay closer to x7 had we gone for it.

As it stands, however, Nations League continues to frustrate, but we'll have another crack at it today.

Simple go. Netherlands have been poor, poor and poor so should still lose to a Germany that's out of sorts. Bulgaria's not the best team in Europe but Cyprus surely must lose to them.

Game 1. Netherlands vs Germany. Germany WIN @2.25. BCR: 2.26. Nitro: 2.246

Game 2. Bulgaria vs Cyprus. Bulgaria WIN @1.57. BCR: 1.56. Nitro: 1.551

BK and BCR again are even margins, so comparison with Nitro.

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @3.53. Nitro Parlay 3.484
Odds advantage: 1.32%
Units advantage: 4.6 units

==> Edit, made a live bet at 0-0 on Uzbekistan vs DPRK. Only BK had it, so 100 units on Uzbekistan to WIN with 60 mins remaining @1.67

Running units advantage after 44 bets: +262.72 (+4.6)

Running units after 42 bets (16W|26L): +1,895.81 (+236.8 units)

[buwaytress]

What a way for Netherlands to finally show up against the heavyweight of Europe. I knew Low's team had problems but it clearly looks like their confidence is affecting their game. How do you not clear the lines for that van Dijk goal? I know it's "only" Nations League but really, Germany? Silver lining is the Uzbek hedge worked out, so posting a minor loss.

2-game parlay for Sunday, counting on the island teams to take a thrashing.

Game 1. Malta vs Azerbaijan. Over 2.5 @ BCR: 2.12. BK: 1.96

Game 2. Kosovo vs Faroe Islands. Kosovo WIN @ BCR: 1.96. BK: 1.96

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BCR @4.1585. BK Parlay 3.8416
Odds advantage: 8.25%
Units advantage: 31.69 units

Running units advantage after 45 bets: +294.41 (+31.69)

Running units after 44 bets (17W|27L): +1,862.81 (-33 units)

[buwaytress]

More misery from Nations League, and I was mistaken to think both islanders would fall to their continental neighbours last night. I'm still thinking it's one of those anomalies, but better to lose both parlay legs than to miss out by a narrow goal (or is it, really? I'll never make my mind up).

I'm going to make one nice underdog bet tonight on England. Look, I know they haven't had things go right for them ever since Kyle Walker's incredible freekick in the World Cup, but they really have to knock it back against Spain tonight. So, backing the 3 Lions for an upset against Spain. Bitcoinrush as usual has hugely whittled margins for the underdog.

Straight bet for England WIN vs Spain. 100 units Bitcoinrush @6.49. Betking odds: 5.90
Odds advantage: 10%
Units advantage: 59 units

Running units advantage after 46 bets: +353.41 (+59)

Running units after 45 bets (17W|28L): +1,762.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Fantastic night for England and fantastic win to raise our bankroll to above 20%, so from tomorrow, I will adjust the bet to 110 units (a 10% increase in base bet). Nice way to ensure we don't get nothing from UEFA Nations League.

For tonight, we take a risky parlay, banking on struggling teams to at least make home wins, and for Gibraltar to somehow lose on their own turf, as they'll probably want to attack and get this group. BK and BCR have even odds, so using Nitro as comparison.

Game 1 Slovenia vs Cyprus. Slovenia WIN @1.65. Nitro: 1.639

Game 2 Gibraltar vs Lichtenstein. Lichtenstein WIN @2.6. Nitro: 2.476

Game 3 Ukraine vs Czech Republic. Czech WIN @ 1.76. Nitro: 1.741

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) BetKing @7.14. BK Parlay 7.065
Odds advantage: 1.06%
Units advantage: 7.5 units

Running units advantage after 47 bets: +360.91 (+7.5)

Running units after 46 bets (18W|28L): +2,311.81 (+549 units)