Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +98424 units

[buwaytress]

Bayern played like absolute underdogs wanting a draw so they could play at home. Slightly worrying as Liverpool haven't done well on travels at all this campaign, but on the basis of last night's performance, I think the Germans should be the ones concerned. Same goes for Barca. We'll see them next week.

I really like Athletico, but I think the odds on Juventus are too hard to ignore. I'll parlay that with Sevilla to triumph at home against Lazio in Europa, seeing as they just lost 0-3 to Villareal, perhaps they're conserving for this.

We'll keep checking back to see Schalke... if the odds climb, it'll be interesting. Fairlay 100 units @12.38. Edit odds and units later.

Game 1: Athletico Madrid vs Juventus. Juve WIN @2.86. Betcoin: 2.8
Game 2: Sevilla vs Lazio. Sevilla WIN @1.76. Betcoin: 1.76
100 units at Bitcoinrush @5.0432. Betcoin parlay: 4.928

Odds advantage: 2.34%
Units advantage: 11.52

Running advantage after 198 bets: +4,409.59 (+11.52 units)

Running units after 197 bets (48W|147L): +1,808.5 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Took an extra bet last night (12/1 for Schalke and we almost but for 5 minutes!) but was too lazy to update then, so couldn't get the odds advantage so we'll let it slide and let's just assume all bookies were on even odds - and I know they weren't!.

Europa's not been a fertile field for me so far, but I'll take a risk on Dynamo Kiev and Villareal, and back the parlay up with expected Leverkusen and Betis wins.

Game 1: Bayer Leverkusen-FC Krasnodar. Leverkusen WIN@1.46. BCR odds: 1.43
Game 2: Real Betis Balompie-FC Stade Rennes. Betis WIN @1.64. BCR odds: 1.62
Game 3: Dynamo Kiev-Olympiacos Piraeus. Kiev WIN @2.26. BCR odds: 2.28
Game 4: Villarreal-Sporting CP. Villa WIN @1.96. BCR odds: 1.97
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.61. BCR parlay: 10.452

Odds advantage: 1.44%
Units advantage: 15.8

Running advantage after 200 bets: +4,425.39 (+15.8 units)

Running units after 199 bets (48W|149L): +1,608.5 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

One must scratch one's head after some games, the conundrum of teams playing it safe when they must win, it's an age that belongs to yesterday. Never mind, Betis.

Premier League returns, and I wonder if Cardiff City could finally bring some joy back to their home fans. They did get some points in recent games, and Watford will be confident after securing passage in the FA Cup, but let's back a mild upset with a routine Hammers home win.

Game 1: Cardiff City vs Watford. Cardiff WIN @3.15. Betcoin:3.12
Game 2: West Ham vs Fulham. West Ham WIN @1.91. Betcoin: 1.83
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.0136. Betcoin parlay: 5.71

Edit: adding a live bet here because West Ham are too good to go down. Trailing 0-1 to Fulham, 4.14 bet, parlay against Espanyol @1.72, total parlay @7.1208. 100 units, I'll give the full odds and betslip.

Edit: Betslip for above.

Odds advantage: 5.32%
Units advantage: 30.36

Running advantage after 201 bets: +4,455.75 (+30.36 units)

Running units after 200 bets (48W|150L): +1,508.5 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Such bad luck! The live parlay I took last night turned out to be going so well, within 30 minutes, West Ham scored 2 goals and Espanyol got 1 too, but Huesca equalised and broke our hearts. Doesn't matter, 7/1 was still good value the way the games were going.

As usual, we'll keep an eye out for value underdog bets, but for now, we do a simple EPL parlay for resurgent Wolves and plucky Leicester:

Game 1: Leicester City vs Crystal Palace. Foxes WIN @2.26. Betcoin: 2.23
Game 2: Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @2.66. Betcoin: 2.65
100 units at Bitcoinrush @6.0116. Betcoin parlay: 5.91

Odds advantage: 5.32%
Units advantage: 10.16

Edit: 100 units DNB on Burnley vs Spurs at Fairlay @4.0952 is impossible to ignore, when it's Betcoin at best with 3.11.
Odds advantage: 31.69%
Units advantage: 98.52

Total units advantage: 108.68

Running advantage after 204 bets: +4,564.43 (+108.68 units)

Running units after 202 bets (48W|152L): +1,308.5 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Incredible loss for Leicester at home, incredible win for Palace - why doesn't Wilfried Zaha get more plaudits? Wolves could only afford to draw, so both legs of my parlay broke down. Funny though that the unlikelier happened as Burnley overturned a goal deficit to smash and grab 3 points from Spurs. We only did a DNB, which is a shame, cause it was almost 7/1 for an outright win.

Today, I pick Liverpool despite many people, including ESPN roundly predicting a United victory, since it's Old Trafford and their form is irresistible. But hey, what's the point of winning the league if we can't beat our old rivals eh? I'll pair it with Arsenal to condemn the Saints to an extended stay in the relegation zone.

Game 1: Man Utd vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.36. Betcoin: 2.3
Game 2: Arsenal vs Southamption. Arsenal WIN @1.5. Betcoin: 1.48
100 unit parlay at Bitcoinrush @3.5341. Betcoin parlay: 3.404
Odds advantage: 3.82%
Units advantage: 13.01

And here's to a Chelsea backlash to beat City in the league cup final, for 100 units at Fairlay @6.1381. Bitcoinrush odds: 5.61
Odds advantage: 9.41%
Units advantage: 52.81

Total units advantage: 65.82

Running advantage after 206 bets: +4,521.57 (+65.82 units)

Running units after 204 bets (49W|153L): +1,518.02 (+209.52 units)

[buwaytress]

So United couldn't score at home, but they did nullify most of Liverpool's threats, in the end none really deserved to win, one of the more frustrating games I've seen in recent times. Chelsea almost got a goal towards the end too, but it was not to be.

Today, we take the underdog Real Sociedad to win away at Girona, and couple that with a Leipzig home win.

Game 1: Girona vs Real Sociedad. Sociedad WIN @3.14. BCR odds: 3.1
Game 2: RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim. Leipzig WIN @1.83. BCR odds: 1.81
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.7462. BCR parlay: 5.611

Odds advantage: 2.41%
Units advantage: 13.52

Running advantage after 207 bets: +4,535.09 (+13.52 units)

Running units after 206 bets (49W|155L): +1,318.02 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Incredibly disappointing results, both draws. Getting really bad on the parlays now but we have the Premier League back to whet our appetites.

I really like Wolves chances despite them slipping up last game, and the same for Leicester... they shouldn't have lost that badly to Palace and face a team who you just never know, but they should be playing for pride now. Parlay that with a difficult friendly win for Lokomotiv Moscow.

Might do a Hail Mary underdog bet if odds really jump on other European cup games.

Game 1: Huddersfield Town-Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @1.84 BCR odds: 1.82
Game 2: Leicester City-Brighton & Hove Albion. Foxes WIN @1.96. BCR odds: 1.93
Game 3: FC Lokomotiv Moscow-Molde FK. Lokomotiv WIN @2.30. BCR odds: N/A so we take even
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.2947. BCR parlay: 8.0789

Odds advantage: 2.67%
Units advantage: 21.58

Running advantage after 208 bets: +4,556.67 (+21.58 units)

Running units after 207 bets (49W|156L): +1,218.02 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Didn't see the Huddersfield win coming at all, not that a 0-0 result would have helped. Happy to see Leicester grab their win, Vardy definitely deserved the goal.

Crystal Palace hammered four past Foxes only 3 days ago, and with United's threadbare squad, I smell an upset so let's back Palace, and parlay that against Arsenal. Liverpool must win, so we might as well add them into the mix.

Game 1: Crystal Palace vs Manchester United: Palace WIN @3.35. Betcoin: 3.24
Game 2: Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth. Arsenal WIN @1.44. Betcoin: 1.45
Game 3: Liverpool vs Watford. Liverpool WIN @1.28. Betcoin: 1.31
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.1802. Betcoin parlay: 6.15

Odds advantage: 0.49%
Units advantage: 3.02

Running advantage after 209 bets: +4,556.67 (+21.58 units)

Running units after 208 bets (49W|159L): +1,118.02 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Oh Palace. They actually had a lot more attempts on goal than United, and when it was 2-1, I wondered if something special might happen. Lukaku took his chances well though, the giant of a man.

Dull match-ups. I'll have a look at Valencia later on, but let's do a France/Bosnia parlay in the women's international friendly.

Game 1: Montenegro (w) v Bosnia-Herzegovina (w). Bosnia WIN @1.38. BCR: 1.35
Game 2: Germany (w) v France (w). France WIN @2.26. BCR: 2.29
100 units parlay at Betcoin @3.1188. BCR parlay: 3.08

Odds advantage: 1.27%
Units advantage: 3.88

Running advantage after 210 bets: +4,560.55 (+3.88 units)

Running units after 209 bets (49W|160L): +1,118.02 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Women's football got me wrong on both counts, so I'm wondering if I should bet on one or two underdogs tonight, so I probably will but only if I see odds jump, or 10/1 odds drop to 8 or something. Let's see later.

For now, Leeds to march on to Championship (can't wait to have them back in the Premier League), Inter and Dortmund to shake off some lethargy and win.

Game 1: Leeds vs West Brom. Leeds WIN @2.23. Betcoin: 2.21
Game 2: Augsburg vs Dortmund. Dortmund WIN @1.61. Betcoin: 1.60
Game 3: Cagliari vs Inter Milan. Inter WIN @1.72. Betcoin: 1.72
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.2054. Betcoin parlay: 6.08

Odds advantage: 2.07%
Units advantage: 12.54

Edit, odds did indeed drop for Portugal so we'll take 100 units on Fairlay for Portugal to beat Sweden @6.231. Bitcoinrush odds: 5.58.

Odds advantage: 11.67%
Units advantage: 65.1

And odds jumped for Poland vs Spain, despite lack of updates, so it's just bookie movement. Poland to beat Spain @13.945. Bitcoinrush odds: 10.17

Odds advantage: 37.12%
Units advantage: 377.5

The odds are slightly wrong, I forgot to use the minus commission totals, so will edit after game ends.

Total units advantage:

Running advantage after 213 bets: +5,015.69 (+455.14 units)

Running units after 210 bets (49W|161L): +918.02 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

And what about women's football second time around, right? Poland beating Spain was sweet enough, and the odds advantage just a huge reason to choose the bookie with better odds (300 units more, that's like 3 free bets)... but Portugal getting the last minute goal to give us another underdog win? Priceless.

Tempting to go for another underdog victory today, but let's wait again for odds to swing, perhaps against City, meanwhile, our pick of Premier League games plus El Clasico, for Barca to put down a statement of intent against Real Madrid:

Game 1: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @3.76. Betcoin: 3.53
Game 2: Real Madrid vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @2.5. Betcoin: 2.47
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @9.4. Betcoin parlay: 8.72

Odds advantage: 7.80%
Units advantage: 68

=> We'll go for 2 more women underdog matchups today. They're both I feel hugely undervalued so makes sense for us. 100 units each, I'll add in the exact odds advantage later:
Slovenia vs Ukraine. Slovenia WIN @6.62 at Betcoin.
USA vs England. England WIN @5.091 at Fairlay.

Running advantage after 214 bets: +5,083.69 (+68 units)

Running units after 213 bets (51W|162L): +2,635.57 (+1,717.55 units)

[buwaytress]

Too lazy to edit, didn't realise the women's game was on so late last night (I saw wrong time) so we'll be generous and assume other bookies were at even odds for the women's games (they weren't!). But we have a third underdog win in 2 days, fantastic results even if England almost made it 4 wins!

Arsenal dropped 2 points. We would have banked a special parlay had Auba just converted, as Barca won our other leg.

We have a lovely Sunday to look forward to, lots of games. Let's pick the must wins of Blue and Red in EPL, and bank on Atletico to push Barca all the way, while Valencia must win to get a shot at Europe.

Game 1: Everton vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.61. Betcoin: 1.61
Game 2: Fulham vs Chelsea. Chelsea WIN @1.52. Betcoin: 1.52
Game 3: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid. Athleti WIN @2.19. Betcoin: 2.15
Game 4: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao. Valencia WIN @2.13. Betcoin: 2.08
100 units at Bitcoinrush @11.3535. Betcoin parlay: 10.94

Odds advantage: 3.78%
Units advantage: 41.35

Running advantage after 217 bets: +5,125.04 (+41.35 units)

Running units after 216 bets (52W|164L): +2,997.57 (+362 units)

[buwaytress]

1 game too far, and truly sad to see that it was Liverpool who failed to score, breaking our parlay. Atleti and Valencia probably faced tougher games and came out quite solidly on top. Such is the nature of parlays.

Backing Sheffield United tonight to strengthen their bid for play-offs for promotion, it will be a tough away game, but not toughter than Levante who I'll back to pip Leganes in the mid-table clash.

Game 1: Sheffield Wednesday vs Sheffield Utd: United WIN @2.18. Betcoin: 2.16
Game 2: Leganes vs Levante. Levante WIN @4.42. Betcoin: 4.30
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @9.6365. Betcoin parlay: 9.29

Odds advantage: 3.73%
Units advantage: 34.65

Running advantage after 218 bets: +5,159.69 (+34.65 units)

Running units after 217 bets (52W|165L): +2,897.57 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Shame on me for ignoring the underdogs in last night's women's internationals, they are really doing well. My picks both imploded last night, it's been a long stretch of bad parlays saved by incredible underdog picks.

Still, we roll with Dortmund tonight in the Champions League... they've been really struggling in the Bundesliga, have a 3-0 deficit to overturn but must win this to salvage some pride and gain back momentum over Bayern. We'll pair this parlay with a Sunderland win in the EFL cup and a Derby County win in the Championship.

Game 1: Borussia Dortmund vs Tottenham Hotspurs. Dortmund WIN @1.99. Betcoin: 1.98
Game 2: Bristol Rovers vs Sunderland. Sunderland WIN @2.26. Betcoin 2.25
Game 3: Derby County vs Wigan Athletic. Derby WIN @1.99. Betcoin: 1.99
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @8.9507. Betcoin parlay:8.87

Odds advantage: 0.91%
Units advantage: 8.07

Running advantage after 219 bets: +5,167.76 (+8.07 units)

Running units after 218 bets (52W|166L): +2,797.57 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

What a dastardly disappointing performance from the Germans last night. Played well, created enough chances, very positive, very strong, and yet still fell to Harry Kane. So we've got 1 English team and 1 Dutch through to the QFs. I wish Spurs luck, for as long as they don't meet Liverpool, just don't bottle it.

Porto are strong, but I really like Roma and they'll want to win this as well to make certain of progress. I believe they will get as far as they did last season. Tempting to back a United away win but without Pogba, Sanchez and a string of others, I really can't see how Mbappe can't find joy in Paris.

Game 1: PSG vs Man Utd. PSG WIN @1.46. Betcoin: 1.46
Game 2: Porto vs Roma. Roma WIN @4.33. Betcoin: 4.23
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.3346. Betcoin parlay: 6.18

Odds advantage: 2.5%
Units advantage: 15.46

Running advantage after 220 bets: +5,183.22 (+15.46 units)

Running units after 219 bets (52W|167L): +2,697.57 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

United shouldn't have gone through, but fair play to them, not giving up and taking maximum advantage of Parisian jitters. I've never seen Mbappe play as badly, so few of his tricks pulled off.

Europa is fancy, very tasty picks, but I'm going to start off safe and see later this evening if odds have improved for some of the away teams. Meanwhile, We'll pick Arsenal and Sevilla, pad it up with a risky Russian Cup game.

Game 1: Sevilla vs Slavia Prague. Sevilla WIN @1.42. BCR: 1.38
Game 2: Rennes vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @2.08. BCR: 2.07
Game 3: Ural Ekaterinburg vs Spartak Moscow. Moscow WIN @2.12. BCR: 2.12
100 units at Betcoin @6.26. Bitcoinrush parlay: 6.076

Odds advantage: 3.03%
Units advantage: 18.4

Running advantage after 221 bets: +5,201.62 (+18.4 units)

Running units after 220 bets (52W|168L): +2,597.57 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

There weren't many upsets in Europa, but I knew how to pick the wrong ones, didn't I? Spartak Moscow shouldn't have lost that game either, but it could have been a calculated move.

Anyway, I'll do a Italy/Spain parlay today, slim pickings.

Game 1: Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol. Espanyol WIN @5.73. BCR: 5.83
Game 2: Juventus vs Udinese. Juve WIN @1.43. BCR:1.39
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.1939. BCR parlay: 8.1037

Odds advantage: 1.11%
Units advantage: 9.02

Africa Champions League also provides two really good underdog selections, which Betcoin is carrying. Neither BCR nor Fairlay has any lines for them (boo) but it's impossible to resist these picks:
100 units on Club Africain to WIN at CS Constantine @7.16
100 units on FC Platinum to WIN at Orlando Pirates @8.02.

Running advantage after 224 bets: +5,210.64 (+9.02 units)

Running units after 221 bets (52W|169L): +2,497.57 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Last night was what I call almost there. 2 out of 3 underdogs last night led all the way till the 81st minute, Bilbao scored, while in the African Champs League, Orlando Pirates levelled in 87th min. Still, getting 1 7/1 victory isn't bad at all.

We do Cambodia friendly win parlayed with English PremLeague victories over relegation strugglers.

Let's look back later today for underdog picks. I like Watford's chances but want to see the odds bump up a bit first.

Game 1: Crystal Palace-Brighton & Hove Albion. Palace WIN @1.89. BCR: 1.87
Game 2: Leicester City-Fulham FC. Leicester WIN @1.58. BCR: 1.56
Game 3: Cambodia-Bangladesh. Cambodia WIN @1.71. BCR: 1.68
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.1064. BCR parlay: 4.9008

Odds advantage: 4.19%
Units advantage: 20.56

Running advantage after 225 bets: +5,231.2 (+20.56 units)

Running units after 224 bets (53W|171L): +2,913.57 (+416 units)

[buwaytress]

Another loss for backing Crystal Palace. They, along with Wolves, have caused me the most parlay heartaches this season. Parlays for me usually involve picking a team or two or three teams and predicting their form over the season. I backed the wrong guys too often this season!

All the same, we look for Liverpool to inject some momentum before their Bayern meeting, and Chelsea and Arsenal to remind United that 4th spot needs to be fought for.

Game 1: Liverpool vs Burnley @1.19. Betcoin: 1.18
Game 2: Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Chelsea WIN @1.6. Betcoin: 1.58
Game 3: Arsenal vs Man Utd. Arsenal WIN @2.48. Betcoin: 2.47
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.7203. Betcoin parlay: 4.61

Odds advantage: 2.39%
Units advantage: 11.03

Edit: CAF games are full of good deals, we have Al Hilal playing away at Asante Kotoko at 10/1 to win. They've already beaten them 1-0 and are only second placed in the group, so why not 100 units at Betcoin for Al Hilal to WIN, DNB at 5.82? Also, Real are playing some of their worst football of the season and we shouldn't ignore a good old fashioned home win against struggling Madrisistas, so 100 units at Fairlay for Valladolid to WIN @6.346. Betcoin odds: 5.58

Odds advantage: 14.1%
Units advantage: 76.6

Running advantage after 228 bets: +5,378.83 (+87.63 units)

Running units after 225 bets (53W|172L): +2,813.57 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

That'll teach me to bet against Real Madrid when the odds aren't THAT great haha. We almost made it with the CAF game though, but the late equaliser at least returns us 100 units. Chelsea also ruined a good parlay by only drawing with Wolves, and in injury time too. That makes it the nth time Wolves have lost me money, this time by betting against them!

I'll be boring today, do a Bundesliga/Serie A home parlay. Some youth games playing today with interesting odds, so I might fancy a look later.

Game 1: Fortuna Düsseldorf - Eintracht Frankfurt. Dusseldorf WIN @2.82. Betcoin odds: 2.75
Game 2: Roma - Empoli. Roma WIN @1.55. Betcoin odds: 1.55
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.378. Betcoin parlay: 4.26

Odds advantage: 2.77%
Units advantage: 11.8

Running advantage after 229 bets: +5,390.63 (+11.8 units)

Running units after 228 bets (53W|175L): +2,613.57 (-200 units)