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Question: How would you rate Bitcoin Savings & Trust?
5 - Excellent
4 - Very Good
3 - Good
2 - Fair
1 - Poor
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Author Topic: Bitcoin Savings and Trust | Home | Closed  (Read 774105 times)
notme
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June 16, 2012, 01:48:23 AM
 #961

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

Sorry, you are of course correct. But it is an exponential, so let's just change it to 2 years. Running two years from 10k BTC, he would end up with more BTC than currently exist!

The yield is something like 3300% annually. Yes, my earlier number was wrong. But even if it was wrong by two orders of magnitude, this would still be ridiculous.

What I'm trying to say is: the numbers are so far away from reality, it doesn't even matter. One BTC in four years would yield about 1,290,000 BTC. AND NO, I DID NOT MESS UP THE MATH THIS TIME.

Assuming that you don't withdraw the btc at any point.  AFAIK, at some point, everyone does a little profit taking. 

It is totally reasonable to be skeptical about high returns. But the people who are vocal about it are nuts. They do that simple and completely irrelevant calculation as if people or pirate will never scale back no matter how big it gets.

Pirate gets to push people out and afaik he actualy does it. So there is nothing exponential even implied here. It's like a standing loan with a standing payout. And when the loan amount goes up because pirate wants more the interest only goes up in exact proportion, linearly.

I think a fast BTC price rise is going to bring pain though, I'm watching closely.

Or maybe he's all in and sitting this one out until it settles down... he did say he's taking a vacation this weekend.

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miscreanity
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June 16, 2012, 08:47:25 AM
 #962

It is totally reasonable to be skeptical about high returns. But the people who are vocal about it are nuts. They do that simple and completely irrelevant calculation as if people or pirate will never scale back no matter how big it gets.

Pirate gets to push people out and afaik he actualy does it. So there is nothing exponential even implied here. It's like a standing loan with a standing payout. And when the loan amount goes up because pirate wants more the interest only goes up in exact proportion, linearly.

I think a fast BTC price rise is going to bring pain though, I'm watching closely.
Or maybe he's all in and sitting this one out until it settles down... he did say he's taking a vacation this weekend.

Let's try to bring it back on track a little. What bitcoin variables do you think can affect your operation, and in which way? Inflation, growth index? And how do you believe that your operation will be affected by the halving of subsidy in December?
The only thing that would affect my profits would be a huge spike in price over a very short period of time.  At this point I really don't need to know when things will affect my operation because I'm able to hedge my risk with how it operates.  If I saw something coming that I felt would cost me more than I'm willing to lose, I would take the necessarily actions to limit the loss, but like I said... it's just a profit loss.  Like I've said before and my lenders know, if I had to take a large loss to cover coins... One, they wouldn't know about it (I still owe them the coins) and two it wouldn't be enough to put me in a pinch or cause me to run to Antarctica.  So as far as my lenders are concerned the only thing they need to trust is me.

I take this to indicate that repayment in terms of an appreciating medium would be painful, but return of capital is not the issue so much as return on capital, i.e. interest payments may be sacrificed to afford a reasonable shutdown of the operation if it runs into a brick wall. So default isn't likely, just a halt on high rates of return.
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June 16, 2012, 09:08:55 AM
 #963

People who are saying that Pirate could offer a much lower interest rate (like 1% instead of 7%) are forgetting that in the beginning he had to offer high interest rates so that people would take the risk and lend him the bitcoins.

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June 16, 2012, 01:32:55 PM
 #964

As long as people keep selling the 7% interest back to the market there is no reason why they could not go forever.

if people hold the coins, or keep reinvesting it then yeah, cant go forever.

Even still it couldn't go on forever.  Not sure how long he has been offering the high interest rate for now, but even if it could only last a few more months, there's money to be made.
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June 16, 2012, 01:33:52 PM
 #965

I'mma turn off notifications for this thread. Nothing new has been said for the last, what, 40 pages? Undecided

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June 17, 2012, 07:00:54 AM
 #966

I think we need a new survey.

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

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June 17, 2012, 11:06:25 PM
 #967

I think we need a new survey.

Do you have any particular suggestions?

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June 18, 2012, 06:17:43 AM
 #968

I think we need a new survey.

Do you have any particular suggestions?

"B is for:"

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

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piotr_n
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June 18, 2012, 06:32:05 PM
 #969

Can someone please tell me if the today payments are out already?

I'm not a BS&T customer, but I want to buy some more PPT bonds and wonder about the risk of buying them now - overpriced, though yet before the dividends are paid.

Check out gocoin - my original project of a bitcoin client written in Go, with some unique features.
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pirateat40
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June 18, 2012, 06:32:58 PM
 #970

Can someone please tell me if the today payments are out already?

I'm not a BS&T customer, but I want to buy some more PPT bonds and wonder about the risk of buying them now - overpriced, though yet before the dividends are paid.

They are going out now, I had a late start this morning. Smiley

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June 18, 2012, 06:33:30 PM
 #971

OK - cheers, guys!

Check out gocoin - my original project of a bitcoin client written in Go, with some unique features.
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JWU42
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June 18, 2012, 06:42:11 PM
 #972

As always - THANK YOU!

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unclescrooge
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June 18, 2012, 06:55:06 PM
 #973

Thanks Pirate Smiley

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June 18, 2012, 07:33:02 PM
 #974

Can someone please tell me if the today payments are out already?

I'm not a BS&T customer, but I want to buy some more PPT bonds and wonder about the risk of buying them now - overpriced, though yet before the dividends are paid.

They are going out now, I had a late start this morning. Smiley

Wow, that was one hell of a < 1min response!
Otoh
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June 19, 2012, 01:03:03 AM
 #975

Muchas Gracias Smiley


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June 19, 2012, 09:31:32 PM
 #976

so now does pirate's business model include buying bitcoins constantly? haven't found any answer yet around here... beginning at the lows last winter, did he perhaps even rescue Bitcoin singlefootedly?  Shocked

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June 19, 2012, 09:44:14 PM
 #977

so now does pirate's business model include buying bitcoins constantly? haven't found any answer yet around here... beginning at the lows last winter, did he perhaps even rescue Bitcoin singlefootedly?  Shocked
I pretty sure that the last thing the pirate does is buying bitcoins Smiley

He obviously lends them out to some other people at higher interests, without being nosy on where they get the bitcoins from.
Ot it's a ponzi...
Either of the two - feel free to choose your believes, I'm still not quite sure about mine Smiley

Check out gocoin - my original project of a bitcoin client written in Go, with some unique features.
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June 20, 2012, 01:06:02 AM
 #978

so now does pirate's business model include buying bitcoins constantly? haven't found any answer yet around here... beginning at the lows last winter, did he perhaps even rescue Bitcoin singlefootedly?  Shocked
I pretty sure that the last thing the pirate does is buying bitcoins Smiley

He obviously lends them out to some other people at higher interests, without being nosy on where they get the bitcoins from.
Ot it's a ponzi...
Either of the two - feel free to choose your believes, I'm still not quite sure about mine Smiley


Isn't it clear what he does? He's said as much on other threads. People lend him bitcoins that he then sells for hard currency locally at a (significant) markup. Whoever buys those coins more than likely sends them to a third party, who converts them back to fiat (possibly another fiat).

Pirate moves his currency back into bitcoins. More than likely Pirate is never in fiat more than a day or two, leaving him minimally exposed to bitcoin / fiat pair volatility risk.

Pirate's customer has a steady need to send currency through bitcoins on a regular basis, for payment for some ongoing good or service. These customers are paying a significant premium for this service, likely 10% or more. That's why Pirate can afford to pay 7 points per week. As long as pirate's customers' business grows (or they move more bitcoins through him) he can afford to keep paying 7% indefinitely. It is likely that at some point he may have to close to new deposits (as he has done in the past).

Bitcoin is a easy way to move large amounts of currency without the use of banks or walking large amounts of cash through airports. Hell, it's better than diamonds or art. Sure is more liquid.

He's doing exactly what he says he does, arbitrage with a very short term loan (The loan is as fast as he can turn hard currency to bitcoin).

(If I've stepped a little too close to home, please let me know and I'll edit / delete my post.)
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June 20, 2012, 01:15:11 AM
 #979

+1 waltmarkers! Definitely one of the soundest theories I've seen floated around here.
imsaguy
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June 20, 2012, 01:16:21 AM
 #980

+1 waltmarkers! Definitely one of the soundest theories I've seen floated around here.

Ponzi isn't sound?

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
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