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Question: How would you rate Bitcoin Savings & Trust?
5 - Excellent
4 - Very Good
3 - Good
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Author Topic: Bitcoin Savings and Trust | Home | Closed  (Read 801225 times)
miscreanity
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June 16, 2012, 08:47:25 AM
 #961

It is totally reasonable to be skeptical about high returns. But the people who are vocal about it are nuts. They do that simple and completely irrelevant calculation as if people or pirate will never scale back no matter how big it gets.

Pirate gets to push people out and afaik he actualy does it. So there is nothing exponential even implied here. It's like a standing loan with a standing payout. And when the loan amount goes up because pirate wants more the interest only goes up in exact proportion, linearly.

I think a fast BTC price rise is going to bring pain though, I'm watching closely.
Or maybe he's all in and sitting this one out until it settles down... he did say he's taking a vacation this weekend.

Let's try to bring it back on track a little. What bitcoin variables do you think can affect your operation, and in which way? Inflation, growth index? And how do you believe that your operation will be affected by the halving of subsidy in December?
The only thing that would affect my profits would be a huge spike in price over a very short period of time.  At this point I really don't need to know when things will affect my operation because I'm able to hedge my risk with how it operates.  If I saw something coming that I felt would cost me more than I'm willing to lose, I would take the necessarily actions to limit the loss, but like I said... it's just a profit loss.  Like I've said before and my lenders know, if I had to take a large loss to cover coins... One, they wouldn't know about it (I still owe them the coins) and two it wouldn't be enough to put me in a pinch or cause me to run to Antarctica.  So as far as my lenders are concerned the only thing they need to trust is me.

I take this to indicate that repayment in terms of an appreciating medium would be painful, but return of capital is not the issue so much as return on capital, i.e. interest payments may be sacrificed to afford a reasonable shutdown of the operation if it runs into a brick wall. So default isn't likely, just a halt on high rates of return.
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June 16, 2012, 09:08:55 AM
 #962

People who are saying that Pirate could offer a much lower interest rate (like 1% instead of 7%) are forgetting that in the beginning he had to offer high interest rates so that people would take the risk and lend him the bitcoins.

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June 16, 2012, 01:33:52 PM
 #963

I'mma turn off notifications for this thread. Nothing new has been said for the last, what, 40 pages? Undecided

imsaguy
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June 17, 2012, 07:00:54 AM
 #964

I think we need a new survey.

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BinaryMage
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June 17, 2012, 11:06:25 PM
 #965

I think we need a new survey.

Do you have any particular suggestions?

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June 18, 2012, 06:17:43 AM
 #966

I think we need a new survey.

Do you have any particular suggestions?

"B is for:"

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piotr_n
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June 18, 2012, 06:32:05 PM
 #967

Can someone please tell me if the today payments are out already?

I'm not a BS&T customer, but I want to buy some more PPT bonds and wonder about the risk of buying them now - overpriced, though yet before the dividends are paid.

Check out gocoin - my original project of full bitcoin node & cold wallet written in Go.
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June 18, 2012, 06:32:58 PM
 #968

Can someone please tell me if the today payments are out already?

I'm not a BS&T customer, but I want to buy some more PPT bonds and wonder about the risk of buying them now - overpriced, though yet before the dividends are paid.

They are going out now, I had a late start this morning. Smiley

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June 18, 2012, 06:33:30 PM
 #969

OK - cheers, guys!

Check out gocoin - my original project of full bitcoin node & cold wallet written in Go.
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June 18, 2012, 06:42:11 PM
 #970

As always - THANK YOU!

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June 18, 2012, 06:55:06 PM
 #971

Thanks Pirate Smiley
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June 18, 2012, 07:33:02 PM
 #972

Can someone please tell me if the today payments are out already?

I'm not a BS&T customer, but I want to buy some more PPT bonds and wonder about the risk of buying them now - overpriced, though yet before the dividends are paid.

They are going out now, I had a late start this morning. Smiley

Wow, that was one hell of a < 1min response!
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June 19, 2012, 01:03:03 AM
 #973

Muchas Gracias Smiley


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June 19, 2012, 09:31:32 PM
 #974

so now does pirate's business model include buying bitcoins constantly? haven't found any answer yet around here... beginning at the lows last winter, did he perhaps even rescue Bitcoin singlefootedly?  Shocked

https://localbitcoins.com/?ch=80k | BTC: 1LJvmd1iLi199eY7EVKtNQRW3LqZi8ZmmB
piotr_n
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June 19, 2012, 09:44:14 PM
 #975

so now does pirate's business model include buying bitcoins constantly? haven't found any answer yet around here... beginning at the lows last winter, did he perhaps even rescue Bitcoin singlefootedly?  Shocked
I pretty sure that the last thing the pirate does is buying bitcoins Smiley

He obviously lends them out to some other people at higher interests, without being nosy on where they get the bitcoins from.
Ot it's a ponzi...
Either of the two - feel free to choose your believes, I'm still not quite sure about mine Smiley

Check out gocoin - my original project of full bitcoin node & cold wallet written in Go.
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waltmarkers
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June 20, 2012, 01:06:02 AM
 #976

so now does pirate's business model include buying bitcoins constantly? haven't found any answer yet around here... beginning at the lows last winter, did he perhaps even rescue Bitcoin singlefootedly?  Shocked
I pretty sure that the last thing the pirate does is buying bitcoins Smiley

He obviously lends them out to some other people at higher interests, without being nosy on where they get the bitcoins from.
Ot it's a ponzi...
Either of the two - feel free to choose your believes, I'm still not quite sure about mine Smiley


Isn't it clear what he does? He's said as much on other threads. People lend him bitcoins that he then sells for hard currency locally at a (significant) markup. Whoever buys those coins more than likely sends them to a third party, who converts them back to fiat (possibly another fiat).

Pirate moves his currency back into bitcoins. More than likely Pirate is never in fiat more than a day or two, leaving him minimally exposed to bitcoin / fiat pair volatility risk.

Pirate's customer has a steady need to send currency through bitcoins on a regular basis, for payment for some ongoing good or service. These customers are paying a significant premium for this service, likely 10% or more. That's why Pirate can afford to pay 7 points per week. As long as pirate's customers' business grows (or they move more bitcoins through him) he can afford to keep paying 7% indefinitely. It is likely that at some point he may have to close to new deposits (as he has done in the past).

Bitcoin is a easy way to move large amounts of currency without the use of banks or walking large amounts of cash through airports. Hell, it's better than diamonds or art. Sure is more liquid.

He's doing exactly what he says he does, arbitrage with a very short term loan (The loan is as fast as he can turn hard currency to bitcoin).

(If I've stepped a little too close to home, please let me know and I'll edit / delete my post.)
bitsire
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June 20, 2012, 01:15:11 AM
 #977

+1 waltmarkers! Definitely one of the soundest theories I've seen floated around here.
imsaguy
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June 20, 2012, 01:16:21 AM
 #978

+1 waltmarkers! Definitely one of the soundest theories I've seen floated around here.

Ponzi isn't sound?

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June 20, 2012, 01:18:05 AM
 #979

I think he's lending everything to dank, who is paying him back 300% every 3 minutes, as soon as he gets rid of his 60 BTC loan.

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June 20, 2012, 01:31:12 AM
 #980

+1 waltmarkers! Definitely one of the soundest theories I've seen floated around here.

Ponzi isn't sound?

Ponzi is plenty sound, it's just one hell of a long con. My theory lines up with his previous statements (I sat down and read all of his posts), and explains why in bitcoin terms this has been going on for an eternity.

He discovered bitcoin, tried his hand at lending online, then figured out it was FAR more profitable to just sell coins for cash offline. I just can't figure out how he can get that much fiat into banks without any issues. $9,000 in cash to every major bank in town gives him a max capacity of $180,000 a week at the very high end (20 banks). Possibly double that if he has a partner. Assuming 20 banks, that would give him a max capacity of ~25,000 bitcoins by himself, but we know he has more than that based solely on pirate pass throughs on GLBSE. That's all one huge scale up for him in the last month. He either took on a partner, or has some other hard cash to exchange method I haven't thought of yet. (But that's why he pulls in ~$7K (at a 10% markup, 21K at 15%) a week just from the cash he's moving through the GLBSE pass throughs.)
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