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Author Topic: [ANN] Grin | PoW Mining | Electronic transactions for all. Community driven.  (Read 73584 times)
RivAngE
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February 26, 2019, 10:37:13 AM
Last edit: February 26, 2019, 02:26:35 PM by RivAngE
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #901

Emission is same as any other coin for first 4 years.
Exact same as Raven or as Bitcoin or Litecoin.

There is no halvening after 4 years, but that yr 2023 is far, far away in crypto.
<quote snip>
Well... right now I'd go 40%-40%-20% (GRIN-XRP-BTC) because GRIN is undervalued, but as soon as my investment would be at 200% I'd sell most of the coins for something else.
I believe many are thinking the same way, which is why I don't expect 2000% price pumps.
Would you put 40% of your portfolio in cash in a traditional market?  That's basically what you are proposing w/ this split.

The intention of this coin, considering it's emission schedule, is to be a medium of exchange.  Such a vehicle is not traditionally held in such large positions, unless one is hedging against (or expecting) downward movement elsewhere, or planning on a spike in value for some other reason.  

I guess you're suggesting the latter - which begs the question... undervalued by what measure?

I'd be happy to explain why I call it "undervalued", but please bear with my train of though! Also the main topic for the price can be continued in the appropriate thread if you want (link)
I always value a project, a stock or a coin based on their competition.

For the GRIN's case I compare it to Ravencoin and Monero. Ravencoin because of both having the same emission (for 4 years) and the same launch-type (no ICO/premine, community driven). Monero because its main selling point is probably its privacy, the same as GRIN's.
Judging by the price of both coins, I'd expect GRIN to have 2.5 times its current price on the short term and rival Ravencoin. Maybe if it's successful it can become stable at about 3 to 4 times its current price.
If that was to happen in 4 months from now, by that time we'll have 3 times more coins issued. So a 4 times increase in price and a 3 times increase in supply will result in 12 times its today's market cap.
With today's data, a 12 times increase of market cap would bring GRIN at $194m and position 32, still a lot lower than Monero's $810m market cap.

It all depends on where you place GRIN in comparison with other projects with similar customer target. Personally I place it around place 30-40 by marketcap and that's why I see it undervalued.



"For first 4 years" is the key in my statement.

@RivAnge
Neither Ethereum had or have max supply. Overall, I agree with almost everything you wrote.
No, but they're doing halvings by time to time (and ETH has a lot of uses which GRIN is lacking).
Actually, I'm expecting the block reward to be a reason for GRIN to fork split down the road, when the community will be divided between reducing the block reward or sticking with their initial announcement.
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February 26, 2019, 11:23:18 AM
 #902

Actually, I'm expecting the block reward to be a reason for GRIN to fork split down the road, when the community will be divided between reducing the block reward or sticking with their initial announcement.
Actually, I find your opinions to be very rational and I have to agree again.

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February 26, 2019, 12:50:26 PM
 #903

Grin coin is the hottest altcoins launched in 2018, and it has still been the hottest in early months of 2019.
Miners, traders, investors, crypto enthusiasts, lots of people have interests and huge demand on Grin coin.
I believe that after next two or three years, Grin coin will jump into the top 50 on coinmarketcap, at least.
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February 26, 2019, 08:42:26 PM
 #904


 Did I tard out and miss a memo somewhere ?
 I thought the emission-rate was always going to be 60 coins per minute, forever.
If you look percentages, inflation is same like any other coin have.
When 4 years pass, then we will see inflation bigger than Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ravencoin or any other similar coin have, since there is no halving. In fifth year of mining, GRIN will have 25% yearly inflation since there is no halving and Bitcoin or Ravencoin for example had/will have 12.5% per year. Until fifth year, inflation is exactly same.

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February 26, 2019, 11:12:10 PM
Last edit: February 26, 2019, 11:25:45 PM by pbfarmer
 #905

If you look percentages, inflation is same like any other coin have.
When 4 years pass, then we will see inflation bigger than Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ravencoin or any other similar coin have, since there is no halving. In fifth year of mining, GRIN will have 25% yearly inflation since there is no halving and Bitcoin or Ravencoin for example had/will have 12.5% per year. Until fifth year, inflation is exactly same.

I'm not sure I entirely get this "inflation vs block reward reduction" issue, clearly.

Is the implication that 1 GRIN I own today, will be worth less in 4 years ?

I understand that 1 BTC == 1 BTC, but with inflation and GRIN, I'm not sure what the long-term implications are for this project, and the risk-reward effort of mining this stuff.

Math is not a strong suit of mine, unfortunately.

I'm just here because of that Theymos guy.

Bottom line, the 'block reward reduction' of BTC is really just the means to the end of a fixed supply.  That fixed supply is the real consideration -- it incentivizes hoarding, and therefore is more suited to an 'investment' or store of value.  Compare this to GRIN, which has an unlimited supply, which puts constant downward pressure on the value (until/unless emission gets to replacement parity), and therefore incentivizes 'working capital' - i.e. use as a medium of exchange.

In short, yes, 1 GRIN you own today should be worth less not just in 4 years, but tomorrow, before any considerations of current fair value and/or speculative pressures.
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February 26, 2019, 11:13:29 PM
 #906

won't be long until it goes under $1, sorry to say this but your an idiot if you are buying at the current price with the massive inflation rate.
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February 27, 2019, 01:08:16 AM
 #907



Please explain this to me again, I guess maybe I have no reading comprehension?

https://github.com/mimblewimble/grin/blob/master/doc/grin4bitcoiners.md
"For first 4 years" is the key in my statement.

@RivAnge
Neither Ethereum had or have max supply. Overall, I agree with almost everything you wrote.

I think your math sucks, try doing it again.

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Texacha
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February 27, 2019, 08:07:32 AM
 #908

I think your math sucks, try doing it again.
Oh, I suck at lot of things in life, but math.... never. Wink

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RivAngE
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February 27, 2019, 01:12:05 PM
Last edit: February 27, 2019, 08:30:03 PM by RivAngE
 #909

If you look percentages, inflation is same like any other coin have.
When 4 years pass, then we will see inflation bigger than Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ravencoin or any other similar coin have, since there is no halving. In fifth year of mining, GRIN will have 25% yearly inflation since there is no halving and Bitcoin or Ravencoin for example had/will have 12.5% per year. Until fifth year, inflation is exactly same.

I'm not sure I entirely get this "inflation vs block reward reduction" issue, clearly.

Is the implication that 1 GRIN I own today, will be worth less in 4 years ?

I understand that 1 BTC == 1 BTC, but with inflation and GRIN, I'm not sure what the long-term implications are for this project, and the risk-reward effort of mining this stuff.

Math is not a strong suit of mine, unfortunately.

I'm just here because of that Theymos guy.

pbfarmer gave a correct explanation, but I'll try offer an example with numbers.

BITCOIN
Coins issued per day: 1800 BTC (12.5 BTC per 10 minutes)
Current price: 3800$
Current MarketCap.: $67 billions

GRIN
Coins issued per day: 86400 GRIN (60 GRIN per 1 minute)
Current price: 3.80$
Current MarketCap.: $14 millions


Now imagine that every day people are spending dollars to buy Bitcoin. There are some who would sell but after subtracting this amount, we have an overall amount of 6,840,000$ fresh fiat spent to buy Bitcoin.
They keep buying Bitcoin every day and forever and the amounts stay the same.
If they'd buy every Bitcoin for 3800$ each, they'd buy all the 1800 issued Bitcoins and the price wouldn't move at all.

When the issued Bitcoins are halved, if the interest for Bitcoin is still the same, there won't be enough mined coins for all the buyers. Therefore they'll have to buy from the market, raising the price until we reach a price where the interest to buy is reduced.
This bold sentence is the essence of the matter and why people are suggesting that GRIN won't enjoy very high prices.
Sure, there are many more factors than just the inflation rate, but the inflation rate is the most predictable and known factor of them all. It's logical that speculators and especially investors will weigh heavily this factor.
For example we can't know what amount of coins will be dumped by the miners.

By the way, GRIN requires 328,320$ every day to hold this price.
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February 27, 2019, 06:40:25 PM
 #910

BITCOIN
Coins issued per day: 360 BTC (2.5 BTC per 10 minutes)

Make that 1800 BTC (12.5 BTC per 10 minutes) ...
RivAngE
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February 27, 2019, 08:34:57 PM
 #911

BITCOIN
Coins issued per day: 360 BTC (2.5 BTC per 10 minutes)

Make that 1800 BTC (12.5 BTC per 10 minutes) ...

Oops! Roll Eyes Fixed now! Yes, the number looks better now, thanks for letting me know!
Those figures... they make you wonder just how much money is required to keep so many different cryptocoins floating.
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February 27, 2019, 09:03:46 PM
 #912

By the way, GRIN requires 328,320$ every day to hold this price.

That's too much for a small market cap coin. 1/20 of bitcoin's daily FIAT meal.

If you make the same calculation for LTC, it is 14400coins x $44 = $633k / daily need to keep the LTC price stable.

LTC is the 5th biggest coin.

GRIN is 199th.

Doesn't look good.

Imma buyer at $0.5.

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February 28, 2019, 02:01:30 AM
 #913

That's too much for a small market cap coin. 1/20 of bitcoin's daily FIAT meal.

If you make the same calculation for LTC, it is 14400coins x $44 = $633k / daily need to keep the LTC price stable.

LTC is the 5th biggest coin.

GRIN is 199th.

Doesn't look good.

Imma buyer at $0.5.

Nice comparision.
Theymos, months ago, in December of 2018, stated that he believed Grincoin price might decrease over time since its start.
The FOMO-period likely gone away, let's see how deeply the Grin coin will fall.

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February 28, 2019, 12:38:10 PM
 #914

By the way, GRIN requires 328,320$ every day to hold this price.

That's too much for a small market cap coin. 1/20 of bitcoin's daily FIAT meal.

If you make the same calculation for LTC, it is 14400coins x $44 = $633k / daily need to keep the LTC price stable.

LTC is the 5th biggest coin.

GRIN is 199th.

Doesn't look good.

Imma buyer at $0.5.


This argument strikes me as rather bogus.

LTC has way higher marketcap because it has had 2701 days of issuance, where Grin had only 44 days.

That in no way explains why Litecoin's daily issuance should be higher than Grin's.

Rather, it begs the question of why Litecoin deserves such a high daily issuance.
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February 28, 2019, 02:00:05 PM
 #915

Your theory also makes the assumption that no miners are hodlers on the coin.  In my circles, most miners on new coins like Grin are speculative miners that are in for the long hodl, not mining just to sell immediately.
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February 28, 2019, 03:43:17 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4), bones261 (1)
 #916

Your theory also makes the assumption that no miners are hodlers on the coin.  In my circles, most miners on new coins like Grin are speculative miners that are in for the long hodl, not mining just to sell immediately.

If all miners hold what they mine, then who has been generating that $14million trading volume in the last 24 hours? Nope, not buying it.

Miners are dumping them.

That's the general rule of mining anyway.

GRIN is a lot more profitable to mine than other GPU coins. Because of that, miners are dumping their coins for FIAT. It would be dumb if they didn't. That's how mining works. Miners are in for FIAT profits. (at least most of them) Big operations have high electricity and maintenance costs, even if they wanted to hodl GRIN, at some point they HAVE TO sell some. It is not a matter of want or not want, they have no other choice.

If all miners were running 1 gpu each, nobody would give a fuck about the mining costs probably but that's not how it is.

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RivAngE
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February 28, 2019, 10:44:38 PM
Last edit: March 01, 2019, 07:50:10 AM by RivAngE
Merited by bones261 (1)
 #917

If all miners were running 1 gpu each, nobody would give a fuck about the mining costs probably but that's not how it is.

Ye well... that's what I remember mining be like, a hobby for enthusiasts, not a game of greedy people where each one tries to outmatch the other.
We've end up with a system that's cannibalising itself.

When cryptocoins were supposed to empower the people equally, the mining business has ended up making rich people richer again. A lot of money have gone/are going out of the ecosystem and into (1) GPU manufacturers and re-sellers, (2) electricity providers and the most evil of all, (3) ASIC manufacturers who overcharge their products, many of which never reaching ROI for holders.

I was kinda happy with the bear market because all the greedy people got punished, maybe with the next bull market people will have learnt their lesson and won't rush to waste money in anything other than buying their favourite coin. Unfortunately, if GRIN's difficulty to go higher in price is an indicator, it seems we still have GPU farms mining for the sake of paying their electricity.
I guess this bear market has still some way to go!
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March 01, 2019, 01:49:01 AM
 #918

For any coins, miners are not holders, I believe.
Most of them, more exactly, are not holders.
Why I thought like this?
Because miners have to get their money back to pay for electricity bills.
They probably sell all their coins to cash out, take profits, pay bills; or simply sell parts of their coins.
No one knows, but we absolutely know that miners have to sell their coins when they need money.
Of course, miners need money for sure.
If all miners hold what they mine, then who has been generating that $14million trading volume in the last 24 hours? Nope, not buying it.
They dumped from time to time, at highs when they feel that is right time to take profits, or even at lows when they need money.
Quote
Miners are dumping them.
I can not disagree with you, fella.
Quote
That's the general rule of mining anyway.
Profitable really?
I can even not mine the coin with my graphic cards 4 GB in mem.
Quote
GRIN is a lot more profitable to mine than other GPU coins.
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March 01, 2019, 01:42:16 PM
 #919

Did i say all miners are hodlers?  No, i said you're assuming all miners are dumpers. 
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March 01, 2019, 08:16:38 PM
 #920

lmao i see this garbage is still going.
nice chart btw  Cheesy Roll Eyes
keep being rekt on vapors.

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