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Author Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL!  (Read 76288 times)
retreat
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May 01, 2023, 09:02:14 AM
 #2001

If we look at the Bitcoin chart from February 2023, the price of Bitcoin was $22000 and gradually Bitcoin started to rise from that price. At that moment for those who missed the opportunity to buy from that dip, the current time can also be considered as a great opportunity again. Bitcoin was trading at $29300 for a long time and the current Bitcoin price is $28,528. A big bullish movement is expected as Bitcoin price is fixed at a certain level. Bitcoin shows bearish trend before every bullish movement. In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has decreased about 2.2 percent. According to the current position it is a dip buying opportunity for new investors as well as more profitable for those who use DCA.

It is still uncertain whether it is a bullish or bearish sign considering that currently Bitcoin's position is sideways and various possibilities can occur. Now investors are waiting for US inflation data to be able to determine their trading steps. If the data that will be shown later is slightly negative it will probably be the reason The FED can increase their interest rates more aggressively and that will have an impact on the price of Bitcoin. Right now we can only wait and see how the economic situation will go in the future and stay focused on HOLD.

R


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May 01, 2023, 10:46:31 AM
 #2002

To all who like to Buy the DIP, and DCA. There's another Golden Opportunity coming, although it might not be as golden as low prices of November, but a good opportunity nonetheless.
If we look at the Bitcoin chart from February 2023, the price of Bitcoin was $22000 and gradually Bitcoin started to rise from that price. At that moment for those who missed the opportunity to buy from that dip, the current time can also be considered as a great opportunity again. Bitcoin was trading at $29300 for a long time and the current Bitcoin price is $28,528. A big bullish movement is expected as Bitcoin price is fixed at a certain level. Bitcoin shows bearish trend before every bullish movement. In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has decreased about 2.2 percent. According to the current position it is a dip buying opportunity for new investors as well as more profitable for those who use DCA.

As long as bitcoin is below its old ATH and our goal is to sell only when it hits new ATH or $100k as everyone is expecting, we can buy bitcoins whenever there is money. Now is also a good time or bitcoin hit $40k still the perfect time to buy bitcoin its never too late to invest in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is still unpredictable in the short term so I don't think your prediction will happen. No one knows if it will increase or decrease in the coming days, but we can do DCA, and accumulate now rather than wait for it to fall further.

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May 01, 2023, 12:29:35 PM
 #2003

this is a DIP for crypto currency prices,
it has been proven if we look at the Bitcoin chart then you will understand that Bitcoin lasts a long time not to fall from $ 15k,
and it is proven that Bitcoin can survive above it, maybe indeed $ 16k is a DIP and if you want to buy then this is the right time.

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May 02, 2023, 09:25:41 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2004

The Kingdom of Bhutan has been mining Bitcoin for several years "at a relatively low cost by using green energy", https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/the-kingdom-of-bhutan-has-been-mining-bitcoin-for-years/

Doesn't that sound like philipma1957's mining operation? I believe there might be more of hybrid, slightly-independent mining farms around different parts of the world that are operating with relatively less dependence on their national power grid. That's real decentralization.

Knowing these kinds of things happening in Bitcoin Land makes me more confident about HODLing.

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May 02, 2023, 11:55:50 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2005

this is a DIP for crypto currency prices,
it has been proven if we look at the Bitcoin chart then you will understand that Bitcoin lasts a long time not to fall from $ 15k,
and it is proven that Bitcoin can survive above it, maybe indeed $ 16k is a DIP and if you want to buy then this is the right time.
Not crypto but Bitcoin.

$16k is DIP ? That's still a long way off I think a price above that even if we have good cash flow to buy for example the current price is a good time, but waiting for a drop to $16K is still very difficult and it's unlikely we will see that price again because of bitcoin has experienced a period of considerable upswing during the early years until now.

If you can't afford DIP then do DCA for you.

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May 02, 2023, 03:18:01 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2006

this is a DIP for crypto currency prices,
it has been proven if we look at the Bitcoin chart then you will understand that Bitcoin lasts a long time not to fall from $ 15k,
and it is proven that Bitcoin can survive above it, maybe indeed $ 16k is a DIP and if you want to buy then this is the right time.
Not crypto but Bitcoin.

$16k is DIP ? That's still a long way off I think a price above that even if we have good cash flow to buy for example the current price is a good time, but waiting for a drop to $16K is still very difficult and it's unlikely we will see that price again because of bitcoin has experienced a period of considerable upswing during the early years until now.

If you can't afford DIP then do DCA for you.
No one can predict about Bitcoin bearish and bullish trend. As per the situation expecting a dip at $16k is not the right decision at the moment.
Bitcoin has been trending bullish over the past few months with occasional price corrections. Many may be expecting a big dip in the price of Bitcoin, which I think is meaning less. Because when the market stood at $16K, some people made various negative comments for it to go to $12K or $10K. But those investors' dreams did not come true. If they want to buy bitcoin, they need to buy bitcoin with $28000 at the moment and maybe more money need to spend next week.

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May 02, 2023, 11:11:47 PM
 #2007

this is a DIP for crypto currency prices,
it has been proven if we look at the Bitcoin chart then you will understand that Bitcoin lasts a long time not to fall from $ 15k,
and it is proven that Bitcoin can survive above it, maybe indeed $ 16k is a DIP and if you want to buy then this is the right time.
Just buy and hold on. Do what you can do when you get a discount at a low price. Do it with the DCA strategy like many people do which can open up opportunities for you to buy at low prices.

Continue to buy and accumulate in the long term. Do it regularly, then the results you will see in the next 10 years will make you happy for the persistence you do in every round you apply.

But if the 10 year term is a bit long you can do in the 5 year term because time flies quickly without us realizing we have some btc in our portfolio.

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May 03, 2023, 02:40:17 PM
 #2008

this is a DIP for crypto currency prices,
it has been proven if we look at the Bitcoin chart then you will understand that Bitcoin lasts a long time not to fall from $ 15k,
and it is proven that Bitcoin can survive above it, maybe indeed $ 16k is a DIP and if you want to buy then this is the right time.
Just buy and hold on. Do what you can do when you get a discount at a low price. Do it with the DCA strategy like many people do which can open up opportunities for you to buy at low prices.

Continue to buy and accumulate in the long term. Do it regularly, then the results you will see in the next 10 years will make you happy for the persistence you do in every round you apply.

But if the 10 year term is a bit long you can do in the 5 year term because time flies quickly without us realizing we have some btc in our portfolio.

In regards to the last line of your post arimamib, I have quite a few doubts that there is any real and/or meaningful way to accelerate an investment plan that would usually take 10 years down to 5 years, and sure any of us might attempt to invest more aggressively in order to potentially reduce our timeline, but we also may well end up running a risk of over-investing or even contributing to some lessening in our quality of life in meaningful/measurable ways, if we try to push our level of aggressiveness too much.

I frequently will suggest that bitcoin accumulators attempt to be as aggressive as they can without overdoing their aggressiveness, but that whole concept of attempting to balance your aggressiveness is not easy to describe because each of us has to find our own level of balance in that direction... and there are even truths in the bitcoin space that it is better to invest something into bitcoin (get off of zero) rather than to invest nothing; however, later down the road some of those investors who had chosen to merely get off of zero and to invest somewhat whimpily may well end up regretting that they had not invested more aggressively into bitcoin rather than choosing a path of investing so whimpily.

So for example, historically maybe in the last 9-10 years, a bitcoin investor (a person starting to invest into bitcoin on January 1, 2014) who had invested into bitcoin around $10 per week, might feel quite good right now because his having had invested $4,700 would have resulted in more than 4.5 bitcoin feels pretty good; however, if he had chosen to invest at $100 per week, his amount of bitcoin would have had been 10x that amount.. but his amount invested would have had been 10x that amount, too..

These days it is more difficult to suggest that investing at $10 per week is enough (as it would have been enough if a guy had started investing into bitcoin in early 2014) - on the other hand, it is true that any of us are ONLY able to invest as aggressively into bitcoin as we are able to do, and if we are NOT able to muster up enough extra cash in order to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, then we need to figure out how much that we feel that we can do in order to be aggressive, but without putting our own finances and psychology into to much stress during the process of holding whatever quantity of extra cashflow aside and putting it into bitcoin.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 03, 2023, 07:29:20 PM
 #2009

Actually It is very difficult to identify where is real Dip.So i thnk it is easy to say but difficult to do. I think perfect decision is DCA. And target will be hold it for long time.
Who will buy Every dip that's means who will do DCA and that will Hold for long time he will be profitable. Because crypto currency market will come back and bull market will come today or tomorrow. So i am agree to buy dip and hold.

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May 03, 2023, 09:56:58 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Fara Chan (1)
 #2010

These days it is more difficult to suggest that investing at $10 per week is enough (as it would have been enough if a guy had started investing into bitcoin in early 2014) - on the other hand, it is true that any of us are ONLY able to invest as aggressively into bitcoin as we are able to do, and if we are NOT able to muster up enough extra cash in order to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, then we need to figure out how much that we feel that we can do in order to be aggressive, but without putting our own finances and psychology into to much stress during the process of holding whatever quantity of extra cashflow aside and putting it into bitcoin.
In this phase we can multiply the value from stage to stage in the purchases we make in each round. I think I agree with arimamib that 5 years is not too long for us to invest in bitcoin.  but I think the pattern for a person can vary in that if they have strong finances they can make a more aggressive purchase at some point and it certainly can't be self-inflicted to make the effort.

Actually It is very difficult to identify where is real Dip.So i thnk it is easy to say but difficult to do. I think perfect decision is DCA. And target will be hold it for long time.
Who will buy Every dip that's means who will do DCA and that will Hold for long time he will be profitable. Because crypto currency market will come back and bull market will come today or tomorrow. So i am agree to buy dip and hold.
Real Dips, I don't see what this means, I don't think we'll find any real Dip this year, just buy them and do it gradually as you have done so far. DCA is powerful enough to find the real dips when you do the calculation with the average price that you have done then you have found the real Dip point.

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May 04, 2023, 07:18:32 AM
Merited by Fara Chan (1)
 #2011

These days it is more difficult to suggest that investing at $10 per week is enough (as it would have been enough if a guy had started investing into bitcoin in early 2014) - on the other hand, it is true that any of us are ONLY able to invest as aggressively into bitcoin as we are able to do, and if we are NOT able to muster up enough extra cash in order to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, then we need to figure out how much that we feel that we can do in order to be aggressive, but without putting our own finances and psychology into to much stress during the process of holding whatever quantity of extra cashflow aside and putting it into bitcoin.
In this phase we can multiply the value from stage to stage in the purchases we make in each round. I think I agree with arimamib that 5 years is not too long for us to invest in bitcoin.  but I think the pattern for a person can vary in that if they have strong finances they can make a more aggressive purchase at some point and it certainly can't be self-inflicted to make the effort.

Even though I throw out the specific quantities of $10 or $100 in order to provide some kinds of possible reference points, the actual level of aggressiveness that anyone investing into bitcoin has to do with a variety of their own particular circumstances rather than attempting to apply what might be aggressive in one person's case might not really apply so much in the circumstances of another person's case.

The considerations relate to cashflow, how much bitcoin the person has already accumulated, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and the person's abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

So for example, there could be a person who makes $2,500 or more per month, but then s/he might have various fixed expenses that cover more than $1,600 per month, and so then at that point, there would be $900 per month that could potentially be invested - however, there may also be some needs to maintain some of that "extra" in reserves for possible emergencies and/or fluctuation of expenses - and surely there might be some entertainment, consumption or other possible demands that might cause the person to have some flexibility in his/her budget and desire to live/socialize and to consider those matters important - so then there would then be potential questions regarding how much of the discretionary $900 that such person might want to dedicate to investing in bitcoin (and deferred gratification) rather than some other ways that s/he might want to consider spending that money in terms of more expedited gratification.. and those are somewhat discretionary matters that may or may not lead to later regrets, in part dependent upon how much spare amount that might be contained in the discretionary amount of income and surely in some cases the amount is enough in order that "both" can be achieved... but still there could still be discretionary questions in regards to "how aggressive" such a person might feel that s/he is being in terms of deciding how to spend his/her discretionary income (once the amount is determined).


Actually It is very difficult to identify where is real Dip.So i thnk it is easy to say but difficult to do. I think perfect decision is DCA. And target will be hold it for long time.
Who will buy Every dip that's means who will do DCA and that will Hold for long time he will be profitable. Because crypto currency market will come back and bull market will come today or tomorrow. So i am agree to buy dip and hold.
Real Dips, I don't see what this means, I don't think we'll find any real Dip this year, just buy them and do it gradually as you have done so far. DCA is powerful enough to find the real dips when you do the calculation with the average price that you have done then you have found the real Dip point.

Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 04, 2023, 12:59:07 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2012


Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.
That is the volatility in Bitcoin DCA value, its always unstable and there is the possibility to have a bear market and a bull market in the same cycle let's say in the 1-year range we see multiple times when Bitcoin change its direction in price and this has been the market sentiment over the years and that is not going to change since it the nature of the market, bitcoin is designed to remain volatile in price and that is what makes it a speculative asset.
This market volatility can be beneficial to both long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders if they know when to take profits or cut losses the ability to make that decision accurately is what makes the difference in the percentage profits that come along with holding Bitcoin.
Even though no one can speculate on the direction Bitcoin will go in whatever price trend either in a dip or bull run Bitcoin market, the ability to make a proper Dollar cost of Bitcoin in whatever price trend will away put the investors in a profitable position.

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May 04, 2023, 01:27:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)
 #2013

So for example, historically maybe in the last 9-10 years, a bitcoin investor (a person starting to invest into bitcoin on January 1, 2014) who had invested into bitcoin around $10 per week, might feel quite good right now because his having had invested $4,700 would have resulted in more than 4.5 bitcoin feels pretty good; however, if he had chosen to invest at $100 per week, his amount of bitcoin would have had been 10x that amount.. but his amount invested would have had been 10x that amount, too..

These days it is more difficult to suggest that investing at $10 per week is enough (as it would have been enough if a guy had started investing into bitcoin in early 2014) - on the other hand, it is true that any of us are ONLY able to invest as aggressively into bitcoin as we are able to do, and if we are NOT able to muster up enough extra cash in order to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, then we need to figure out how much that we feel that we can do in order to be aggressive, but without putting our own finances and psychology into to much stress during the process of holding whatever quantity of extra cashflow aside and putting it into bitcoin.
Maybe in 2014 bitcoin was not as popular as it is now there is more and more interest in bitcoin investment in any way so for those who have started in early 2014 for the next 9 years they will make more bitcoins at that time the price is still low and not as big as now, maybe at that time there were very few of them doing DCA with $10 for example so whoever did earlier then he just made more BTC earned.

Slightly different now many have done DCA with their nominal variations included in their dollar cost averaging $10-$100 is a good benchmark depending on how they can afford to do with the cash flow they have along the way, if you start now, for example, doing DCA of as little as $ 10 for 9 years, the BTC you will get will be small but the value will be higher with a price that will increase each cycle.

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May 04, 2023, 01:29:50 PM
 #2014

Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.

Yes. There are always opportunities given by the market to invest in this crypto world. This is like dipping sauce, Buy the DIP, and HODL!

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May 04, 2023, 02:20:53 PM
 #2015

Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.

Yes. There are always opportunities given by the market to invest in this crypto world. This is like dipping sauce, Buy the DIP, and HODL!
Yeah, Bitcoin's relationship with the financial system has become of monetary importance. The importance of bitcoin has exceeded human expectations compared to the traditional monetary system. That is what makes bitcoin's position that internal strength and structure of bitcoin will always increase over time. In any cycle I expect to take full advantage of market opportunities, buying dip and hodl has become an easy, simple yet effective method that some people overlook.

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May 04, 2023, 04:05:47 PM
 #2016

Yes. There are always opportunities given by the market to invest in this crypto world. This is like dipping sauce, Buy the DIP, and HODL!
Just say invest in bitcoins as this thread covers the full discussion of bitcoins.

The words DIP, and HODL are more appropriate for bitcoin, whereas mentioning crypto doesn't seem quite right.

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May 04, 2023, 04:21:22 PM
 #2017

Actually It is very difficult to identify where is real Dip.So i thnk it is easy to say but difficult to do. I think perfect decision is DCA. And target will be hold it for long time.
Who will buy Every dip that's means who will do DCA and that will Hold for long time he will be profitable. Because crypto currency market will come back and bull market will come today or tomorrow. So i am agree to buy dip and hold.
While doing the DCA thing make sure you always keep USD closer to you, never run out of USD or stable coins, dips happens when we don't expect them sometimes, the market is too unpredictable and that's why we need to be prepared to take the chances once they are available.

I don't care when the bull Market Will return, all I care about is buying some bitcoin right now before it is too late and hold for a long period of time probably till the year 2025 who knows?   So I agree that buying the dip is the best strategy right now.

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May 04, 2023, 10:06:05 PM
 #2018

So for example, there could be a person who makes $2,500 or more per month, but then s/he might have various fixed expenses that cover more than $1,600 per month, and so then at that point, there would be $900 per month that could potentially be invested - however, there may also be some needs to maintain some of that "extra" in reserves for possible emergencies and/or fluctuation of expenses - and surely there might be some entertainment, consumption or other possible demands that might cause the person to have some flexibility in his/her budget and desire to live/socialize and to consider those matters important - so then there would then be potential questions regarding how much of the discretionary $900 that such person might want to dedicate to investing in bitcoin (and deferred gratification) rather than some other ways that s/he might want to consider spending that money in terms of more expedited gratification.. and those are somewhat discretionary matters that may or may not lead to later regrets, in part dependent upon how much spare amount that might be contained in the discretionary amount of income and surely in some cases the amount is enough in order that "both" can be achieved... but still there could still be discretionary questions in regards to "how aggressive" such a person might feel that s/he is being in terms of deciding how to spend his/her discretionary income (once the amount is determined).
The value you mentioned even though it's just a mere comparison, of course it's a pretty fantastic value. normal in my country the ones who earn that much income are those working in government parliament who can make $2500 per month) well covering all of that the most aggressive thing we can do is make purchases in small amounts from each round and it will multiply in the next round. I mean $20/25/30 and so on.

from that I think we have the same goal of collecting btc in the long term and it won't trigger a strong reaction to do aggressively because we have to be able to balance the income we get. we can follow the DCA strategy but we can't follow the instructions to do aggressively it's a bit hard for us.

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May 04, 2023, 11:26:31 PM
Merited by ginsan (1)
 #2019

Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.
That is the volatility in Bitcoin DCA value, its always unstable and there is the possibility to have a bear market and a bull market in the same cycle let's say in the 1-year range we see multiple times when Bitcoin change its direction in price and this has been the market sentiment over the years and that is not going to change since it the nature of the market, bitcoin is designed to remain volatile in price and that is what makes it a speculative asset.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Odusko in regards to both the advantages of DCA and the difficuties to figure out BTC price directions during short timelines; however, I may had misspoken a little bit in terms of whether I consider it to be realistic or even meaningful to be labelling switches from bullmarket (or bullcycle) in terms of short-term BTC price happenings, and in that regard, I refuse to accept some of the traditional market assessments regarding what is considered to be bull or bear markets, and largely so far in bitcoin's history, price cycles have tended to play out in four year periods, and it can be quite difficult to know (or to have solid conviction) whether a bottom (or a top) is in, and frequently we are not going to really know until quite far down the road, so there is a bit of a lagging indication regarding whether the bear market is over or the bull market is over.. ..

Yet, even within a bull market we can experience strong and lasting price corrections that would not necessarily constitute that the bull market is over, and in my thinking, merely because we experience a variety of large and/or lasting corrections within bull markets does not justify that the sub movement should be called bear/bull trends.. merely because they are either corrections or they are runs within an overall trend that had not really been broken.

So currently there are questions in regards to whether the $15,479 bottom from November 20, 2022 is the actual bottom for what had been determined to have had been a bear market.. and so whether we have yet transitioned into a bull market or not can still be unclear, and even negated in the event that BTC prices were to return to somewhere within close proximity of those kinds of $15,479 price levels or even go lower.

This market volatility can be beneficial to both long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders if they know when to take profits or cut losses the ability to make that decision accurately is what makes the difference in the percentage profits that come along with holding Bitcoin.
Even though no one can speculate on the direction Bitcoin will go in whatever price trend either in a dip or bull run Bitcoin market, the ability to make a proper Dollar cost of Bitcoin in whatever price trend will away put the investors in a profitable position.

I cannot disagree with any of that, and to even agree that BTC's price volatility is one of the matters that is closest to inevitable, even though we cannot be completely sure about what direction that the volatility and/or price is going to go, and the ONLY way that we end up profiting from DCA is if the overall trend of BTC is ultimately in an upwards direction.  If BTC price direction ends up spiraling down forever, then DCA ends up NOT paying off.. so there is a bit of a presumption that at some point(s) down the road, BTC prices are going to be higher than current prices and higher than prices in which we are currently buying BTC.. otherwise, DCA would not necessarily work.. which is the case with shitcoins.. we cannot presume that the prices of shitcoins will go up, but it seems fair and reasonable to have some presumptions that we are regularly investing into bitcoin because we believe that ultimately BTC's price is going to trend upward. even if it might take a while to play out and even if the price might not end up going up as high as we might wished it to go...so long as it generally trends up we end up being profitable (and surely, when time comes to potentially cash out some or all of our BTC, then it would be preferred that the BTC price has gone up higher than it's price and also accounting for the devaluation of the dollar that likely will come too)... so we want BTC price appreciation to be profitable in "real terms", and not just nominal terms, while realizing that we are making an asymmetric bet in which our odds seem to be pretty damned good, even while there is no guarantee that our investment will actually end up being profitable  in "real terms."

[edited out]
Slightly different now many have done DCA with their nominal variations included in their dollar cost averaging $10-$100 is a good benchmark depending on how they can afford to do with the cash flow they have along the way, if you start now, for example, doing DCA of as little as $ 10 for 9 years, the BTC you will get will be small but the value will be higher with a price that will increase each cycle.

In dollar terms, we should be better off in 9 years, even if we invest relatively small amounts, and for sure one of the advantages of investing into bitcoin is that we can choose the amount that we believe that we can afford in terms of how aggressive that we want to be, even if we are ONLY able to invest $10 each time that we buy whether we can do that every week or not... but even if we can ONLY invest small amounts, bitcoin does allow us to be able to do that, even though we might need to search and research either a service or a person who is willing to trade with us, even if each of the amounts is low... such as ONLY $10 at a time.

I don't care when the bull Market Will return, all I care about is buying some bitcoin right now before it is too late and hold for a long period of time probably till the year 2025 who knows?   So I agree that buying the dip is the best strategy right now.

It's probably better to be trying to invest into bitcoin longer.. since 2025 is only 2 years from now.. and bitcoin is likely a 4-10 year or longer investment, if you figure out ways to invest in it with those kinds of longer timelines...which will also likely result in compounding affects upon your investment, too.

So for example, there could be a person who makes $2,500 or more per month, but then s/he might have various fixed expenses that cover more than $1,600 per month, and so then at that point, there would be $900 per month that could potentially be invested - however, there may also be some needs to maintain some of that "extra" in reserves for possible emergencies and/or fluctuation of expenses - and surely there might be some entertainment, consumption or other possible demands that might cause the person to have some flexibility in his/her budget and desire to live/socialize and to consider those matters important - so then there would then be potential questions regarding how much of the discretionary $900 that such person might want to dedicate to investing in bitcoin (and deferred gratification) rather than some other ways that s/he might want to consider spending that money in terms of more expedited gratification.. and those are somewhat discretionary matters that may or may not lead to later regrets, in part dependent upon how much spare amount that might be contained in the discretionary amount of income and surely in some cases the amount is enough in order that "both" can be achieved... but still there could still be discretionary questions in regards to "how aggressive" such a person might feel that s/he is being in terms of deciding how to spend his/her discretionary income (once the amount is determined).
The value you mentioned even though it's just a mere comparison, of course it's a pretty fantastic value. normal in my country the ones who earn that much income are those working in government parliament who can make $2500 per month) well covering all of that the most aggressive thing we can do is make purchases in small amounts from each round and it will multiply in the next round. I mean $20/25/30 and so on.

from that I think we have the same goal of collecting btc in the long term and it won't trigger a strong reaction to do aggressively because we have to be able to balance the income we get. we can follow the DCA strategy but we can't follow the instructions to do aggressively it's a bit hard for us.

Well, maybe my examples are too big for some people, as you suggested ginsan, but you still should be able to figure out numbers that work for your scenario in order to figure out how aggressive would be sufficiently aggressive or what levels might be overly aggressive for you and for your situation (including considering whether you have potential for greater earning power or even potential to cut back on certain costs - but for some folks it might be difficult to imagine higher numbers without some kinds of BIG changes in their own circumstances, so they have to work with what they have in front of them).

And, i understand that some people are in situations in which the wages are not very high, and it may be a bit difficult to work towards increasing wages, so the more practical angle is to consider how aggressive that the person is able to be within the wages that s/he already earns, which may well be way lower than the numbers that I had presented... .and even within whatever numbers that you are working, there are going to be varying levels in which you are able to be aggressive and varying levels in which you are making choices about what kinds of things you want to buy (or invest into) with whatever income that you might have left after you have paid for your necessities.... so there is an expression that people who do not have "discretionary" income are not able to invest.. which makes sense because no one should be investing into bitcoin with money that they have to pay for food or rent or some other basic living expense(s), so if those people with little to no discretionary income do want to invest (into bitcoin or into anything else), then they have to figure out ways to build their situations in such a way that they do end up having "discretionary" income..otherwise they are stuck.. without any investments at all..

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May 05, 2023, 09:30:53 AM
 #2020

Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.
That is the volatility in Bitcoin DCA value, its always unstable and there is the possibility to have a bear market and a bull market in the same cycle let's say in the 1-year range we see multiple times when Bitcoin change its direction in price and this has been the market sentiment over the years and that is not going to change since it the nature of the market, bitcoin is designed to remain volatile in price and that is what makes it a speculative asset.
I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Odusko in regards to both the advantages of DCA and the difficuties to figure out BTC price directions during short timelines; however, I may had misspoken a little bit in terms of whether I consider it to be realistic or even meaningful to be labelling switches from bullmarket (or bullcycle) in terms of short-term BTC price happenings, and in that regard, I refuse to accept some of the traditional market assessments regarding what is considered to be bull or bear markets, and largely so far in bitcoin's history, price cycles have tended to play out in four year periods, and it can be quite difficult to know (or to have solid conviction) whether a bottom (or a top) is in, and frequently we are not going to really know until quite far down the road, so there is a bit of a lagging indication regarding whether the bear market is over or the bull market is over.. ..
I respect the views of you guys, however, let me ship my little idea.

Many assume a lot with Bitcoin psychology, while many are just lucky with their assumptions at times, but still, there are good speculators that don't do that. I am such that believes in not just calling Dump, Pump, or Hodl without a basis for it. It might depend on the angle at which one looks at the market through the tradition/theory/cycle they believe in, but the market will remain the market, and Bitcoin is not an exception so far it's charted. This is why we will always be seen the bottom, peak, and sideways (neutral) in every market including Bitcoin and it might be for either short, medium or long-term, it doesn't market.

That said, there is a basis to knowing these levels and conditions, particularly on the chart, and as an experienced speculator, I know when there are short, medium and long-term actions whether it's to buy, sell or pause the action. And if anyone doesn't want to believe that it's possible, then it's a choice but has been guiding all professional traders around the world.

The market has its psychology, and the psychology could be known under careful studies, while the approach used matters too. And presently, on the long-term view, Bitcoin has bottomed at $15,413 (November 2022's low), it's all bullish now unless it slips below the level. Elliot wave theory, Fibonacci and Trendline studies on both the weekly and monthly charts confirmed it. 'You can take my word for it.'
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Bitcoin will not meet that quoted bottom in the next 2 years. Speculative analysis may not be perfect and also be viewed as a possibility, but when it has been successfully guiding someone with about 85-95% accuracy, then it's worth using.

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