[Rugby] Union / League / Super / Sixes Sevens Pro14 / Cups & Tours / Olympics

[Welsh]

Kicking game v England didnt work, they should have been able to realise this and make
a change.

Italy v Wales... its going to be close. Wales look to be slight favourites ATM 1.88 v 1.78.

On Italy's form this season and how they have been able to rack up decent scores
and Wales 22 zone performance I can see an Italy upset.

Honestly, I'm quite surprised we're still favourites for the game. I mean, Italy have looked fantastic, pushed several teams close already this tournament, while Wales have basically been shooting themselves in the foot, and haven't really pushed anyone close. The English game being the closest, but that's not because we were brilliant, just England are also a team struggling.

I'd say the games probably going to be close, and we do have a chance of winning it. I just thought Italy would've been the favourites. Obviously, I won't be betting against Wales, never have, and I'm not going to start now. However, that's some good odds for Italy to win in my opinion, and any neutrals might want to jump on that.

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[aoluain]

Timelord, with your betting spreads above it brings a whole new meaning to

"I just cant get enough Rugby"

Heh - with only four or five of us in this thread (and just Welsh, yourself and myself - the core three at that) I'm hoping any casual reader might jump in if they see their teams being mentioned every once in a while.

Yea I know we have had this conversation before, but I cant understand why this thread
is not more popular?

Maybe for the world cup we should run a dedicated thread for that?

Rugby Union had fallen under the spell of the nine network who have broadcast League in Australia for probably fifty plus years.  However, Rugby, which had been snared by nine only a few short years ago, has been moved sideways to Stan.  So, I'm agonising as to whether or not to sign up just to watch a random game each week.  ??  Not exactly value for money.

Ok so for tomorrow its all in on the Panthers against the Broncos.

I hope the Panthers pound the Broncos into oblivion.  

Nah its not worth it really.
I dont have any of my local TV channels and havent have for a number of years. We
rely on the UK channels to watch the six nations, and we try to watch every game.
Its frustrating though not being able to watch a game when you have the time
and or the want to.

Honestly, I'm quite surprised we're still favourites for the game. I mean, Italy have looked fantastic, pushed several teams close already this tournament, while Wales have basically been shooting themselves in the foot, and haven't really pushed anyone close. The English game being the closest, but that's not because we were brilliant, just England are also a team struggling.

I'd say the games probably going to be close, and we do have a chance of winning it. I just thought Italy would've been the favourites. Obviously, I won't be betting against Wales, never have, and I'm not going to start now. However, that's some good odds for Italy to win in my opinion, and any neutrals might want to jump on that.

Italy have been a bit of a revelation this season, they have indeed run teams close,
but I'm sure they themselves will have been frustrated after each game. They are
able to clock up their scores and are able to kick their penalties.

They have Wales and Scotland next, they will be looking to get a result from each for sure.

[Timelord2067]

Maybe for the world cup we should run a dedicated thread for that?

I really don't want to go down that path given how few of us are here already.


The Auckland Warriors are ahead in the second half with 25 minutes of game play left.




*edit*

One from three.  (details later)

The Broncos were definitely on top of their game and I think the Panthers were relying on the statistics telling them they would win in front of their fans at home.  (the Broncos hadn't won at that ground in 14 years)

[aoluain]

The Broncos were definitely on top of their game and I think the Panthers were relying on the statistics telling them they would win in front of their fans at home.  (the Broncos hadn't won at that ground in 14 years)

Unbelievable, that result was not supposed to happen. From what I read the Broncos
defense was very good.

I think that was a wake up call for the Panthers. They maybe thought they just
had to show up.

Sea Eagles v Bulldogs next, lets hope the Sea Eagles can continue their form from
the pre-season into this game. I have literally $1 left in my wallet, so a $1 bet at 1.55.

[Welsh]

Italy have been a bit of a revelation this season, they have indeed run teams close,
but I'm sure they themselves will have been frustrated after each game. They are
able to clock up their scores and are able to kick their penalties.

They have Wales and Scotland next, they will be looking to get a result from each for sure.

They've been steadily improving for a few years now, I mean we've lost to them before so that speaks volumes. I'd fully expect them to be as confident as possible against Wales, although Scotland are a different team these days also. I remember when they were pretty much one of the worst teams in the Six Nations, but now they're looking one of the best.

Nonetheless, I'm not going to count out Wales yet, and I'm certainly going to avoid betting on this one, even though the odds are quite encouraging, I just don't know what team we'll get. Italy, also might be fairly inconsistent, and might struggle with Wales making the game messy. I'd say probably the most competitive the sides will be for a number of years though.

[aoluain]

The Broncos were definitely on top of their game and I think the Panthers were relying on the statistics telling them they would win in front of their fans at home.  (the Broncos hadn't won at that ground in 14 years)

Unbelievable, that result was not supposed to happen. From what I read the Broncos
defense was very good.

I think that was a wake up call for the Panthers. They maybe thought they just
had to show up.

Sea Eagles v Bulldogs next, lets hope the Sea Eagles can continue their form from
the pre-season into this game. I have literally $1 left in my wallet, so a $1 bet at 1.55.

Sea Eagles did the job against the Bulldogs 31 - 6. Looks like they were in fine form
after landing at the tio of the preseason ladder!

After winning that bet I put it all back on the Cowboys to beat the Raiders. It was looking
very good at half time 18 - 6 but the Raiders came into the game in the second half. With only
a few minutes to go and the sides level on 18 points the Cowboys scored a field goal.

....although Scotland are a different team these days also. I remember when they were pretty much one of the worst teams in the Six Nations, but now they're looking one of the best.

Yea this year has been very good for Scotland, as you say England are not the team
they were a few seasons ago and of course Wales have regressed alao so there is a
void there and Scotland are filling it

[Timelord2067]

Sea Eagles did the job against the Bulldogs 31 - 6. Looks like they were in fine form
after landing at the tio of the preseason ladder!

After winning that bet I put it all back on the Cowboys to beat the Raiders. It was looking
very good at half time 18 - 6 but the Raiders came into the game in the second half. With only
a few minutes to go and the sides level on 18 points the Cowboys scored a field goal.

It's looking like the mid ladder teams have actually gone and done their homework while the top of the ladder had a fairly light off season practising.  The last two games I was only able to follow via the NRL.com websites text play by play game pages.  The Rabbitohs got an early led then edge ever forward as the game progressed to have a comfortable win.  IIRC the Raiders were actually ahead towards the end but the Cowboys recovered and like a few other games so far took a field goal to clench the win.

My Round One pics are as follows:

Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm 02 Mar 2023 19:00 Money Line Melbourne Storm @ 1.75
New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights 03 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Newcastle Knights @ 2.57
Penrith Panthers - Brisbane Broncos 03 Mar 2023 19:05 Money Line Penrith Panthers @ 1.18
Manly Sea Eagles - Canterbury Bulldogs 04 Mar 2023 14:00 Money Line Manly Sea Eagles @ 1.52 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.076 mBTC
North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders 04 Mar 2023 16:30 Money Line North Queensland Cowboys @ 1.34 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.067 mBTC
Cronulla Sharks - South Sydney Rabbitohs 04 Mar 2023 18:35 Money Line Cronulla Sharks @ 2.51
Dolphins (NRL) - Sydney Roosters 05 Mar 2023 15:05 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 6.44 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.322 mBTC - (Benefit of the doubt for their debut game)
Wests Tigers - Gold Coast Titans 05 Mar 2023 17:15 Money Line Gold Coast Titans @ 2.17 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.109 mBTC - (last two years the Tigers game out swinging or the first two or three games, then collapsed never to recover)

The Dolphins play in around seven hours from now - there's a lot of Hype on the Nine Network promoting them and a documentary series that's being filmed at the moment.


*Edit*

Half time and the score is 12 -12.  The Roosters got in early with a try while the Dolphins have dropped the ball a few times they are certainly hitting hard.



(My internet connection has been crap the last few days)

[aoluain]

Welcome to the premiership Dolphins!



Big win over a top team as predicted by yourself Timelord. I didnt bet on that game.

So are there other teams which could potentially fit into your relegation structure?
I'm sure there are in lower tier competitions, teams that are always at the top there
who would fill the place of relegated teams like....Wests Tigers

[Timelord2067]

Massive win.  After a couple of stumbles, the Dolphins romped home stunning everyone except the 30,000 supporters at Lang Park cheering them on.

Welcome to the premiership Dolphins!



Big win over a top team as predicted by yourself Timelord. I didnt bet on that game.

So are there other teams which could potentially fit into your relegation structure?
I'm sure there are in lower tier competitions, teams that are always at the top there
who would fill the place of relegated teams like....Wests Tigers

At the end of last season I would have definitely said - Wests Tigers (NSW), Canberra Raiders (notionally NSW) and the Gold Coast Titans (Qld).  The Titans have won exactly ONE game thus far, so it's too early to say if they are going to redeem themselves this year (and the Auckland Warriors based on last year's performance).


Round One wins and losses:  Not sure why, but the Storm game got refunded (but they were happy enough to take my money on the Parlay, not cancel it too)

My Round One pics are as follows:

Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm 02 Mar 2023 19:00 Money Line Melbourne Storm @ 1.75
New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights 03 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Newcastle Knights @ 2.57
Penrith Panthers - Brisbane Broncos 03 Mar 2023 19:05 Money Line Penrith Panthers @ 1.18
Manly Sea Eagles - Canterbury Bulldogs 04 Mar 2023 14:00 Money Line Manly Sea Eagles @ 1.52 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.076 mBTC
North Queensland Cowboys - Canberra Raiders 04 Mar 2023 16:30 Money Line North Queensland Cowboys @ 1.34 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.067 mBTC
Cronulla Sharks - South Sydney Rabbitohs 04 Mar 2023 18:35 Money Line Cronulla Sharks @ 2.51
Dolphins (NRL) - Sydney Roosters 05 Mar 2023 15:05 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 6.44 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.322 mBTC - (Benefit of the doubt for their debut game)
Wests Tigers - Gold Coast Titans 05 Mar 2023 17:15 Money Line Gold Coast Titans @ 2.17 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.109 mBTC - (last two years the Tigers game out swinging or the first two or three games, then collapsed never to recover)

Four (plus one) from seven (plus one)


For NRL 2023 - round two I thought I might get a little brazen and bet a little extra on the teams who won the week before .

Penrith Panthers - South Sydney Rabbitohs 09 Mar 2023 19:00 Money Line South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 2.62 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.131 mBTC
Parramatta Eels - Cronulla Sharks 10 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Parramatta Eels @ 1.48 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.074 mBTC
Brisbane Broncos - North Queensland Cowboys 10 Mar 2023 19:05 Money Line Brisbane Broncos @ 1.75 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.088 mBTC
Sydney Roosters - New Zealand Warriors 11 Mar 2023 14:00 Money Line New Zealand Warriors @ 4.92 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.246 mBTC
Melbourne Storm - Canterbury Bulldogs 11 Mar 2023 18:35 Money Line Melbourne Storm @ 1.34 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.067 mBTC
Wests Tigers - Newcastle Knights 12 Mar 2023 15:05 Money Line Newcastle Knights @ 2.22 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.111 mBTC
St George/Illawarra Dragons - Gold Coast Titans 12 Mar 2023 17:15 Money Line Gold Coast Titans @ 1.97 Taken Amount: 0.10 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.197 mBTC



I'm wondering if nitrobetting.eu got stung big time with Dolphins bets in round one - they aren't offering any odds on the Dolphins game two.  (but they're offering odds of $2.97 on game three) - (If that changes later in the week I'll let you know).

Round three NRL 2023

Newcastle Knights - Dolphins (NRL) 17 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 2.95 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.148 mBTC

[aoluain]

Massive win.  After a couple of stumbles, the Dolphins romped home stunning everyone except the 30,000 supporters at Lang Park cheering them on.

Welcome to the premiership Dolphins!



Big win over a top team as predicted by yourself Timelord. I didnt bet on that game.

So are there other teams which could potentially fit into your relegation structure?
I'm sure there are in lower tier competitions, teams that are always at the top there
who would fill the place of relegated teams like....Wests Tigers

At the end of last season I would have definitely said - Wests Tigers (NSW), Canberra Raiders (notionally NSW) and the Gold Coast Titans (Qld).  The Titans have won exactly ONE game thus far, so it's too early to say if they are going to redeem themselves this year (and the Auckland Warriors based on last year's performance).


Round One wins and losses:  Not sure why, but the Storm game got refunded (but they were happy enough to take my money on the Parlay, not cancel it too)

Hey thats probably what happened to my bet too on Storm, I used Nitro too, I was so sure
I had placed that bet, so it just got refunded.


So yea instead of relegating a team this year they just added one more.

Round 15 of the United Rugby Championship starts up on Friday. Only 4 more rounds
before the Finals.

There aren't many decent odds on really, I have 3 ATM:

Stormers to beat the Sharks @1.3
Leinster to beat Edinburgh @1.23
Ulster to beat Cardiff @1.42

I forgot to mention that my 3 URC bets last weekend won, which is nice to balance
the NRL ones!

So this weekend coming we have R4 of the Six Nations and R2 of the NRL.

Have no idea what im betting on yet.

Thats interesting about the Dolphins, it will be very interesting to see how they go,
Timelord, would you have been familiar with them before this year?

[Timelord2067]

Thats interesting about the Dolphins, it will be very interesting to see how they go,
Timelord, would you have been familiar with them before this year?

Very much so. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redcliffe_Dolphins

You have to drive past their stadium on the way into Redcliffe from Anzac Avenue and some of the NRL games the last couple of years have been played there.  (Plus, they won the State based competition a couple of times in more recent years and as a part of the Queensland Cup games are played there during the season so if you've ever seen one of their home games, you would have seen their stadium)

On the other hand, the Brisbane Broncos, Gold Coast Titans and Townsville (NQ) Cowboys are totally manufactured out of thin air teams.  The Broncos had their origins from the Brisbane "West's Panthers" who were based in Bardon and moved their club house to Red Hill.  Essentially the players were kicked out, the fans ignored and Queensland players who had been playing in the N(SW)RL comp were parachuted into the Broncos.

(Plus there is a convoluted "feeder" system for local clubs feeding into NRL teams interstate (very messy)

While it's true they've won the NRL competition in the past during the State of Origin series the Qld team was essentially the Broncos team and their reserve grade players were elevated for three weeks (and would loose) then get dumped back into the training squad once the SOO was over.  You could win money betting against the Broncos during the SOO each year or a decade simply because they were playing for Queensland against NSW.

Some really big money has changed hands to elevate the Dolphins into the N(SW)RL - some of that funding has come from the Moreton Bay Regional Council who also dug deep to fund/own the Redcliffe (Kippa-Ring) railway line from Petrie.  The Kippa-Ring station isn't that far from the Stadium (a short shuttle bus run on game day)  It is walkable if you're really energetic.

At the end of last year under a (UK football style) relegation system, the Gold Coast Titans would have been relegated and the Dolphins parachuted into the National Comp.  Unfortunately, it (the NRL) is very much still a New South Wales centric competition with a couple of ring ins.

The PNG Hunters (who are based on the Gold Coast and play in the Queensland Cup) are making noises to be elevated into the NRL.

[aoluain]

That sounds very messy indeed.

I did a google search on NRL Relegation System and came across this argument FOR such a
system, its from 2021 but its really interesting reading.

https://www.totalrl.com/forums/index.php?/topic/360913-do-you-support-a-promotionrelegation-system-in-the-nrl/

* Initially two teams relegated from bottom of the ladder

* 1 team promoted and relegated each year

* 14 strong NRL clubs

* New 10-team Championship (2nd division)

* Not as many blowouts

* More blockbuster games

* Huge interest in bottom placed NRL teams late in season

* Huge interest in top Championship teams late in season

* Brings back the Bears and Newtown

* Puts the onus on the clubs to get their houses in order

* Massive boost for bush football

* League on the Central Coast

* Loan player arrangements for promoted clubs

* Championship match of the round on TV Wednesday nights

Those bullet points all make for a great argument but it comes down to money and
like you say there must have been quite a sum passed to promote the Dolphins and
have an odd number of teams in the premiership.

[Timelord2067]

There are some fairly strong points in that article that mirror exactly what I've been saying for a while.  Not sure what Championship they are referring to, however it may be like the midweek series played between Qld and NSW teams in the 1970's/80's that was play side-by-side with the State Competitions.

I disagree with a relegated team loaning their best out - there's no motivation for a loosing team to try to get back into the competition.  Both the Qld and NSW State Competitions agree that teams can be promoted and they accept relegated teams back into their fold.  Plain and simple.  The Auckland Warriors, Canberra Raiders and Melbourne Storm would also have more motivation to play well.  I'm not sure which of the New Zealand teams (or Victorian) could be promoted and I wouldn't like to see Auckland or Melbourne stay in the comp if they can't play.  Canberra would probably be relegated to the NSW comp.

That sounds very messy indeed.

I did a google search on NRL Relegation System and came across this argument FOR such a
system, its from 2021 but its really interesting reading.

Right smack bank in the middle of lockdowns when there were rumblings of getting the isolated teams moved around the nation and being busted flouting the strict lockdown laws.

[aoluain]

Yea in my mind I questioned the loaning of players too, It seems a bit of an odd concept.


In the NRL this week I havent placed any bets yet, I'll hold off until tomorrows games and
I thinking of going with these:

Roosters to beat the warriors @ 1.21
Dolphins to beat the Raiders @ 2.5
Storm to beat the Bulldogs @ 1.38

Broncos are favourites against the Cowboys, didnt the Broncos start strong last season too?

and currently on half time its Eels 10 - 0 Sharks - Sharks could come back into this....

[Welsh]

France to beat England at 1.72 is looking very nice, I wouldn't have thought we'd get those odds. England, as I said before haven't looked great for a few seasons now, and against a really struggling Wales side. Italy, obviously with the 1.80 against Wales also looks good, I mean this weekend is probably some of the best value bets you can get in the Six Nations. Also, Scotland against Ireland is 3.60, I think that's the most risky bet to make, but that's also very good odds. You chuck an accumulator on for all three of those, and that's 13.36.

Obviously, I'll never bet against Wales, but if I was a neutral that looks like a very good accumulator to me, the only real risky one is Scotland, but on their day they can beat Ireland. France, I think will find it easy, Italy, and Wales will likely be a close game.

[aoluain]

I'm only doing 2 Six Nations bets this round, France to beat England @ 1.76 and Ireland
to beat Scotland @ 1.36 on Rollbit.

I'm not betting on Wales v Italy. I half think Italy because they are playing Wales  ^{sorry Welsh}
and they have performed really well this year, surprisingly well and then the other half of me
thinks Wales will turn the corner with this game and get to grips with their handling errors
and penalty count, so its too close to call for me.

Scotland v Ireland, Personally my thinking on Scotland is that they are filling a void. With
the fact that Wales are not performing this year and England are not the team they
once were Scotland look better. They have only beaten Wales and England, couldnt beat
France and I think Ireland will be tough for them also.

They are nice odds on Scotland but its a tough ask for them IMO.

Broncos are favourites against the Cowboys, didnt the Broncos start strong last season too?

and currently on half time its Eels 10 - 0 Sharks - Sharks could come back into this....

I put a $1 bet on the cowboys 🤐

And the Sharks did come back into it, 30 points in the second half to wing the game!

[Timelord2o67]

I've finally been able to put a wager on this afternoons Dolphins game at Lang Park in this constant drizzling rain:

Dolphins (NRL) - Canberra Raiders 11 Mar 2023 16:30 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 2.35 Taken Amount: 0.21 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.494 mBTC

Plus, I've put down a couple of small wagers on the Rugby sixes:  

Italy - Wales 12 Mar 2023 00:15 Money Line Wales @ 1.71 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.086 mBTC
England - France 12 Mar 2023 02:45 Money Line France @ 1.65 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.083 mBTC
Scotland - Ireland 13 Mar 2023 01:00 Money Line Ireland @ 1.31 Taken Amount: 0.05 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.066 mBTC

On Nitrogen these are the three favoured teams, so well find out soon if they are right.


As expected, the Broncos did the job against the Townsville Cowboys.  Unfortunately, the Eels tanked seconds after the full time hooter unable to land a try to push the game into golden point.  The irst match o the round the Panthers out played the Rabbitohs.  It wasn't that the Rabbitohs underperformed, rather the Panthers played better.

One statistic I did hear during the Sharks/Eels game was only three teams in the 25 years of the "NRL" have gone on to win the series after loosing the first two round games.

[Timelord2067]

Two in a row.  Now to make it three on the trot!

Newcastle Knights - Dolphins (NRL) 17 Mar 2023 17:00 Money Line Dolphins (NRL) @ 2.48 Taken Amount: 0.30 mBTC Possible Payout: 0.744 mBTC

[aoluain]

Cant believe the Bulldogs beat Storm? and the Raiders killed our bets on the Dolphins.


Wales did the job against Italy, it was a great game, Wales were a bit lucky ^{maybe not the right word}
Italy had plenty of chances to score but couldnt finish.

Just watching England v France, its 9 minutes gone and has the makings of a great
game, its all France ATM!

[Timelord2067]

Cant believe the Bulldogs beat Storm? and the Raiders killed our bets on the Dolphins.

Huh?  The Dolphins won! https://www.nrl.com/draw/nrl-premiership/2023/round-2/dolphins-v-raiders/ 20 - 14 after trailing early in the game.  The Dolphins were playing at home on a drizzly Saturday afternoon.

It would have been cringe-worthy sitting through the Bulldogs game - I can't recall the exact figure, but it was something like $4 the Bulldogs were paying. (Ouch!!)

Wales did the job against Italy, it was a great game, Wales were a bit lucky ^{maybe not the right word}
Italy had plenty of chances to score but couldnt finish.

Just watching England v France, its 9 minutes gone and has the makings of a great
game, its all France ATM!

https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/preview/preview-scotland-v-ireland-4#preview

Game starts in a bit under 15 hours from now with Ireland favoured to win by the various betting sites offering $1.38 to $3.00.

France trounced England 53 - 10 and were already half way to that score at half time.  Wales on the other hand were up 22 -3 against Italy at half time before they clawed back some of that trailing deficit to eventually loose 29 - 17

In the US Major League Rugby Seattle ($1.45) are playing Houston ($2.65) - I'm going to go with Houston who I've placed some bets on in the recent past.