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Author Topic: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1)  (Read 242745 times)
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February 21, 2026, 09:28:41 AM
 #39821

The Lens vs Monaco match promises to be a tense affair as Lens aims to widen the points gap with PSG while Monaco seeks to improve their position in eighth place. But I hope Lens can win this match so that the League One competition can remain competitive until the end of the season.
I think PSG's loss to Rennes surprised me because Rennes hadn't won in their previous four matches. This should have been an easy win for PSG, as even though Rennes are in the top 10, they had just suffered three consecutive defeats. This result has brought Ligue 1 back into the competitive stage. Lens will face Monaco, and this match will be interesting. Lens must win this match to maintain their points lead. I don't think Lens are in a good position because one mistake from PSG could overtake them.
Lens seems to be a team that struggles in big matches. Their defeat against Marseille shows this. A tough match awaits them against Monaco, and winning against them today is more important than ever. Because they are the league leaders and they don't want to see Paris Saint-Germain regain the lead. They want to win this match and finish the week at the top of the table. Frankly, I'm surprised they're still in the title race this far. They're fighting very well, and I think they'll continue to do so until the end of the season. I've seen very ambitious Lens players this year.


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February 21, 2026, 10:18:39 AM
 #39822

Marseille’s loss wasn’t really that surprising, and this is exactly why PSG always dominate the Ligue 1 title every season. No other team truly has the same level of consistency and strong performance stability as PSG. This kind of thing happens almost every season. A Ligue 1 team looks consistent at the start, but once they enter the second half of the season, they lose their best form.

And about Marseille having more possession, that does not really help them win. They just do not have good finishing.

This was the 4th point loss in a row for Marseille in the Ligue 1... I don't know how they can't score even 1 goal with a 1.69 xG. So many shots but not a single goal. By the way they are normally the 2nd most scoring team in the league now.

But the main problem for them is obviously the defending. 31 goals conceded so far! I still don't think they will drop down from top 4 though. But I started to doubt their top 3 chance more with this form. The gap with Lyon is 5 points and it might get bigger by the end of the round.

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February 21, 2026, 11:25:40 AM
 #39823

Lens seems to be a team that struggles in big matches. Their defeat against Marseille shows this. A tough match awaits them against Monaco, and winning against them today is more important than ever. Because they are the league leaders and they don't want to see Paris Saint-Germain regain the lead. They want to win this match and finish the week at the top of the table. Frankly, I'm surprised they're still in the title race this far. They're fighting very well, and I think they'll continue to do so until the end of the season. I've seen very ambitious Lens players this year.

Lens is performing very well this season. Their attack is very strong. At the same time, lens's defense is stronger than psg. Lens's players have conceded only 17 goals in  22 matches. The team is able to perform well consistently  because of their strong defense.
psg is only 1 point behind. If they cannot play well consistently, then they have no chance of winning the title. Although their point difference with lens is only 1. Even then, it will be very  difficult for them to occupy the top spot of the  table. Lens's performance is stable.

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February 21, 2026, 12:00:47 PM
 #39824

Marseille were considered favorites but lost the match 2-0 . Brest were not a strong opponent. But marseille lost badly. They lost points in  four consecutive matches.

Marseille tried to dominate the match by controlling the  ball possession. But they failed. Marseille players had 67 % of the ball possession. Despite a lot of attacks, they could not score a single goal. At the same time, marseille's defense was very weak in this match , as in the previous matches. Brest managed to take a 2- 0 lead in just 30 minutes. In the second half, Brest kept their defense strong and  secured the victory in the match.
Marseille’s loss wasn’t really that surprising, and this is exactly why PSG always dominate the Ligue 1 title every season. No other team truly has the same level of consistency and strong performance stability as PSG. This kind of thing happens almost every season. A Ligue 1 team looks consistent at the start, but once they enter the second half of the season, they lose their best form.

And about Marseille having more possession, that does not really help them win. They just do not have good finishing.

They played better and direct football whenever losing, why not start that game with the same vibes. The manager brought in after sacking Zebri is not a good replacement in my opinion. Zebru is ten times better than him. He might ne a club legend nut he is not good enough. I can promise Marseille and they will not qualify for the Champions league if he remains the manager until the end of the season.
Mason Greenwood had a chance to score from the spot kick but he didn't

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February 21, 2026, 12:05:52 PM
 #39825

Marseille were considered favorites but lost the match 2-0 . Brest were not a strong opponent. But marseille lost badly. They lost points in  four consecutive matches.

Marseille tried to dominate the match by controlling the  ball possession. But they failed. Marseille players had 67 % of the ball possession. Despite a lot of attacks, they could not score a single goal. At the same time, marseille's defense was very weak in this match , as in the previous matches. Brest managed to take a 2- 0 lead in just 30 minutes. In the second half, Brest kept their defense strong and  secured the victory in the match.
Marseille’s loss wasn’t really that surprising, and this is exactly why PSG always dominate the Ligue 1 title every season. No other team truly has the same level of consistency and strong performance stability as PSG. This kind of thing happens almost every season. A Ligue 1 team looks consistent at the start, but once they enter the second half of the season, they lose their best form.

And about Marseille having more possession, that does not really help them win. They just do not have good finishing.

They played better and direct football whenever losing, why not start that game with the same vibes. The manager brought in after sacking Zebri is not a good replacement in my opinion. Zebru is ten times better than him. He might ne a club legend nut he is not good enough. I can promise Marseille and they will not qualify for the Champions league if he remains the manager until the end of the season.
Mason Greenwood had a chance to score from the spot kick but he didn't
Brest capitalized on their chances better and managed to secure the three points. It was a very bad experience for Marseille. They are in the race for a Champions League spot, and losing those three points could create significant problems for them. If they win against Lille and Rennes, they will close the gap on Marseille. This could also mean Marseille could drop out of the Champions League qualification zone. They must avoid losing points in matches like this.

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February 21, 2026, 12:14:51 PM
 #39826

Marseille were considered favorites but lost the match 2-0 . Brest were not a strong opponent. But marseille lost badly. They lost points in  four consecutive matches.

Marseille tried to dominate the match by controlling the  ball possession. But they failed. Marseille players had 67 % of the ball possession. Despite a lot of attacks, they could not score a single goal. At the same time, marseille's defense was very weak in this match , as in the previous matches. Brest managed to take a 2- 0 lead in just 30 minutes. In the second half, Brest kept their defense strong and  secured the victory in the match.

Another oddity in Ligue 1, Marseille shouldn't have lost this match, but this is football, where each team has 50% winning chance. Luckily I didn't bet on Marseille in this match, if I had bet on them I would probably have cursed this team.


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Even with all the dominance Marseille had, they couldn't score a single goal. This match was the opening match of the matchday, they wasted their chance to continue racing in the Ligue 1 standings, Olympique Lyon will definitely be further away from them & comfortable in third place soon.

R


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February 21, 2026, 12:39:43 PM
 #39827

Brest capitalized on their chances better and managed to secure the three points. It was a very bad experience for Marseille. They are in the race for a Champions League spot, and losing those three points could create significant problems for them. If they win against Lille and Rennes, they will close the gap on Marseille. This could also mean Marseille could drop out of the Champions League qualification zone. They must avoid losing points in matches like this.
The last four matches have seen Marseille drop a lot of points in Ligue 1 with only two draws and two defeats in those matches. If Marseille can't perform consistently in the coming matches, it will be difficult for them to maintain their third-place finish, making it difficult for them to secure a Champions League spot. Marseille is starting to struggle to maintain their best form, perhaps because their busy match schedule makes it difficult for Marseille to keep up with the number of matches, especially with their Champions League schedule.

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February 21, 2026, 01:18:30 PM
 #39828

To win the Champions League twice in a row, you need higher discipline and consistency, which no doubt PSG have both. But still, the Champions League is tricky, it can change at any time. Even though I know that PSG are among the top favourites to win the trophy, I still have a bit of doubt that they will be able to make it. But we all know things can change in no time, so maybe they will be able to achieve it again this season. All I will say is that only time will tell.
Winning the Champions League back-to-back is a difficult task to achieve because there are a lot of big and strong teams in the Champions League, and I think PSG won't be able to lift the Champions League trophy this season because their performance is sloppy. PSG was among my favorite teams to win the Champions League when the Champions League hadn't started but seeing how PSG is performing right now, they are out of my favorite teams and I don't see them winning the Champions League trophy this season.

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February 21, 2026, 02:26:45 PM
 #39829

There's logic to averages, but it's not always practically meaningful. For example, in the season when Bayer won the Bundesliga without a single defeat and scored 90 points, while the average champion (Bayern  Grin )scored 72-82 points. PSG are currently performing not much worse than usual, but due to the presence of a new competitor, this may not be enough. Lens has 12 games left to play to take the title from PSG. After 22 games already played, it seems quite achievable, doesn't it?

Yup, statistics don't play, but comparing averages is still useful to give a true perspective. People would often jump into conclusion that if the team, that was considered the strongest, is not in the lead, that must means there's something wrong with them. That was the case for Bayern when they lost the championship to Leverkusen, but statistically, they weren't doing that bad.
As for Lens, I really hope they will win. I don't see them as the favourite but I placed a small bet on them just because of the attractive odds. I hope they will get extra motivated, as they might not get another opportunity like this in years to come.

Stompix checked your numbers and it turns out that PSG is significantly (substantially) worse. Perhaps by the end of the season the averages will even out, but it is still clear that PSG is worse than in previous seasons. Due to the Champions League and other considerations, it is possible that the players' peak shape is still ahead and what we see now is part of the plan for the season. All that remains is to wait and see if this is true. If PSG takes off this season just like they did last season, then it was probably planned in advance.

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February 21, 2026, 02:31:51 PM
 #39830

Brest capitalized on their chances better and managed to secure the three points. It was a very bad experience for Marseille. They are in the race for a Champions League spot, and losing those three points could create significant problems for them. If they win against Lille and Rennes, they will close the gap on Marseille. This could also mean Marseille could drop out of the Champions League qualification zone. They must avoid losing points in matches like this.

Marseille have been out of form for  quite some time now. And Brest made good use of this opportunity. Both Brest and Marseille played well enough. But brest managed to secure 3  points from the match. Brest's defenders performed well against marseille. As a result, despite several strong attacks, marseille  could not score a single goal. On the other hand, brest managed to score 2 goals in just 30  minutes. Although marseille dominated the match , they could not score a  single goal. The home team Brest managed to have only 33 % ball possession.

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February 21, 2026, 02:38:48 PM
 #39831

From the performance Lens has showed so far this season and from the performance PSG has showed so far this season, I don't know between Lens and PSG which team will end up winning the league this season. If PSG wants to depend on Lens dropping points for them to win the league, I am sorry PSG might not win the league, because I don't think Lens will dropped unnecessary points that will aid PSG to win the league. If PSG wants to win the league, they have to improve their performance and win more matches than Lens.


At this point both teams have the same chances of becoming champions. Before, I always thought that Lens had no chance of winning the title because it belonged to PSG. PSG has been the team dominating France’s Ligue 1 based on their squad.At this point, I expected the Lens players to be exhausted and not in great form, but I have realized that they are not exhausted. They are determined, and that is why they are doing everything possible to always secure full points. The last time they lost against Marseille, I thought that was the beginning of their failure, but surprisingly, they have not dropped any points again, which shows they want to win the title this season.PSG are not as strong as in other seasons, and because of that, it is possible they may not win the league this season if they are not careful. From the way I am observing them, they may still drop some points unexpectedly. But let us just observe what will happen in the next few matches.


I had written Lens off completely at the beginning of the season. At the last couple years, they sold basically all the people of any worth. Their president literally said that the goal was financial stability, not winning stuff. I thought okay cool safe midtable finish then. And then the Sage was able to rebuild the entire thing using cheaper parts and somehow get it running better?

Still, Lens have injuries piling up silently. Defenders out, backup goalkeeper out. Also, every non-PSG team that's led the Ligue 1 at halfway since Qatar took over has collapsed. Every single one. Marseille, Nice, Lyon - they all collapsed late. The pressure of chasing PSG does something to teams psychologically.

THAT SAID. Dembele has hardly played this season. Their Ballon d'Or winner! Can't stay fit! And Doue that actually saved their Champions League campaign is the same guy that Dembele publicly criticized. It's messy over there.

PSG aren't broken but they're surely cracked. One slip from either side and everything is changed. And both of them look very capable of slipping at this moment.

 
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February 21, 2026, 02:53:50 PM
 #39832

Marseille are just worse this season. Yeah, maybe they weren't competitive for the title last season either. But the thing is that they have lost 2 places compared to then. They might not even manage to qualify for the Champions League league phase directly...

They sacked De Zerbi and I think that wasn't fair for him. He made the team the 2nd the last time and he deserved to be given more time. Habib Beye has been appointed after him. I don't think this makes sense as he isn't a better manager than De Zerbi.

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February 21, 2026, 03:16:33 PM
 #39833

Lens seems to be a team that struggles in big matches. Their defeat against Marseille shows this. A tough match awaits them against Monaco, and winning against them today is more important than ever. Because they are the league leaders and they don't want to see Paris Saint-Germain regain the lead. They want to win this match and finish the week at the top of the table. Frankly, I'm surprised they're still in the title race this far. They're fighting very well, and I think they'll continue to do so until the end of the season. I've seen very ambitious Lens players this year.
The French Lig 1 is filled with lots of surprises this season which makes is very risky for gamblers. Lens is not the only team that have demonstrated this surprising turn of events, theirs is that they beat small teams and struggle with big teams while that of PSG is the opposite as the beat strong teams and struggle with weak teams. I recur PSG beating Marseille by 5:0 but lost to Stade Rennes 3:1 and even lost to Paris FC 0:1 in their cup match. I don't know how we will call this trend that is evident in the French Lig 1, I will not even be surprised if Monaco trashes Lens tonight with so many goals when the stats projects Lens to be the favorite.

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February 21, 2026, 03:34:37 PM
 #39834

Marseille are just worse this season. Yeah, maybe they weren't competitive for the title last season either. But the thing is that they have lost 2 places compared to then. They might not even manage to qualify for the Champions League league phase directly...
Marseille is impressing everyone with its failure including in this match. Brest is not very successful and Marseille was a normal team in this match, more like a mid table team than a top team. They are lucky for now they have 6 points difference but this will not last long.

They sacked De Zerbi and I think that wasn't fair for him. He made the team the 2nd the last time and he deserved to be given more time. Habib Beye has been appointed after him. I don't think this makes sense as he isn't a better manager than De Zerbi.
Sometimes sacking a coach is more than what it looks. I mean he might not be as successful in terms of results but sometimes the complaints of some players and conflicts with some stuff members could be the hidden causes of such decisions.

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February 21, 2026, 03:42:42 PM
 #39835

Marseille are just worse this season. Yeah, maybe they weren't competitive for the title last season either. But the thing is that they have lost 2 places compared to then. They might not even manage to qualify for the Champions League league phase directly...

They sacked De Zerbi and I think that wasn't fair for him. He made the team the 2nd the last time and he deserved to be given more time. Habib Beye has been appointed after him. I don't think this makes sense as he isn't a better manager than De Zerbi.
Marseille disappointed so many people because they all thought that they will be the one to challenge PSG this season but unfortunately they decline and lens take over. Marseille was a really supported because they want PSG out of that race this season, but lens are trying their best to take over the place from them, at least now they are one point ahead which they have to maintain it with whatever they have because PSG are very dangerous and they have the capacity to turn back again.
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February 21, 2026, 03:58:11 PM
 #39836

Marseille disappointed so many people because they all thought that they will be the one to challenge PSG this season but unfortunately they decline and lens take over.

It seems Marseille's performance is declining. Today they lost again 2-0 to Brest. This puts Marseille now in 4th place, followed by Lyon.

Another that, Today and Tomorrow week 23
Lens Vs Monaco
PSG Vs Metz
Lens will face a slightly tougher test; Monaco is not a weak team. But Lens will be lucky to play at home. Three points are a must to maintain the gap from PSG. This week PSG will only face Metz. Metz is the weakest team and is in the relegation zone. Statistically, PSG should get 3 points. In April, Lens will play against PSG. This match might determine who has a greater chance of winning the championship.

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February 21, 2026, 04:06:47 PM
 #39837


Another oddity in Ligue 1, Marseille shouldn't have lost this match, but this is football, where each team has 50% winning chance. Luckily I didn't bet on Marseille in this match, if I had bet on them I would probably have cursed this team.


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Even with all the dominance Marseille had, they couldn't score a single goal. This match was the opening match of the matchday, they wasted their chance to continue racing in the Ligue 1 standings, Olympique Lyon will definitely be further away from them & comfortable in third place soon.
Marseille did the playing while Brest did the scoring and wining, I taught Marseille was going to win this game, they had all the possession and control, they dominated the game so well that loosing was not part of the option for them, they had all the opportunities but this did seemed like one of those unlucky days for them and so they lost all three points to Brest. It was really disappointing they lost with no goal, for a team like  Marseille, at least a goal was expected of them.

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February 21, 2026, 04:19:43 PM
 #39838

Marseille did the playing while Brest did the scoring and wining, I taught Marseille was going to win this game, they had all the possession and control, they dominated the game so well that loosing was not part of the option for them, they had all the opportunities but this did seemed like one of those unlucky days for them and so they lost all three points to Brest. It was really disappointing they lost with no goal, for a team like  Marseille, at least a goal was expected of them.
Possession does not guarantee the result, but the result is guaranteed by the goal. In that respect, Brest was ahead. Marseille focused on possession, while Brest focused on scoring goals. I will not blame luck here, strategy made the main difference here.

The Lens vs Monaco match is catching my attention, Lens got their first goal in the first 3 minutes and attacked 2 times in the first 15 minutes. I do not know the final result, but Lens will probably win. PSG's fight against Metz may not be difficult, but PSG will still be under pressure. Lens' consistency has been terrible for PSG this season.

R


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February 21, 2026, 04:29:13 PM
 #39839

The Lens vs Monaco match is catching my attention, Lens got their first goal in the first 3 minutes and attacked 2 times in the first 15 minutes. I do not know the final result, but Lens will probably win. PSG's fight against Metz may not be difficult, but PSG will still be under pressure. Lens' consistency has been terrible for PSG this season.
Lens is been consistent this season am happy with their performance in the Ligue 1 several time in the Ligue 1 you will always see Paris Saint German at the top of the Ligue 1 table but this time am seeing Lens been above Paris Saint German in the french Ligue 1. Lens is winning Monaco 1-0 already to keep their title hope going and i believe they have this 3 point which is very important and i also believe that Paris Saint German is also going to win Metz in their match later tonight.

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February 21, 2026, 05:53:56 PM
 #39840

What a match that is between Lens and Monaco now man!

When Lens found 2-0 early in the second half I expected a win for them comfortably just as many other people. However Monaco's reaction to that was incredible...

They scored 3 goals in only 11 minutes! Now they are still 3-2 ahead in the stoppage time. Who could have thought they would make such a comeback? That's way too much.


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