Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

I didn't follow closely, who kept Snake Island before special operation started, and who is
keeping it now?

This is the same island whose Ukrainian defenders sent the Russian ship to hell and then died heroically. Then it turned out that they were captured and were exchanged. Then the island was controlled by Russia, but a few days ago Ukraine launched an operation to liberate it. It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter. Now the island is gray on the maps, its status is uncertain. Why Ukraine had to spend so much effort to capture this island is beyond me. Theoretically, the island can be fired upon by the new M777 howitzers with some types of long-range ammunition, it is located 40 km from the nearest coast and about 56 km from Odessa.

Perhaps Ukraine is tritely trying to divert attention from the painful defeat in the Donbass, after losing control over Popasna.

Snake island is a territory of Ukraine that right now is being used a a place to deploy Russian soldiers that need to die for nothing. If you insist that Ukraine is not heroic at this point, you should go there a see for yourself chairborne soldier.

There is no particular reason to "hide" advances. Both sides are actually making minor advances in different fronts but overall there is nothing decisive.

[suchmoon]

It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter.

Except there is video evidence of Russia losing multiple boats, SAMs, and a helicopter, but there's no evidence of Ukrainian losses and it wouldn't make sense for them to even attempt sending troops or equipment there when they can safely attack Russians remotely.

More Russian MoD fantasies. Destroying Ukrainian Bayraktars for the the third time, and airplanes for the second time. I think tanks and boats are into the second round as well.

Edit - Meanwhile the glorious Russian military is inventing new ways to use rotten capitalist technologies because glorious Russian technologies are too advanced I guess:

Wrecked Russian fighter jets are being found with rudimentary GPS receivers "taped to the dashboards" in Ukraine because their inbuilt navigation systems are so bad, the UK defense minister said.
[...]
"The result is that whilst Russia have large amounts of artillery and armor that they like parading, they are unable to leverage them for combined arms maneuver and just resort to mass indiscriminate barrages."

[paxmao]

It seems that Ukraine has already lost several missile boats, planes, helicopters and bayraktars there, Russia also has losses, at least one helicopter.

Except there is video evidence of Russia losing multiple boats, SAMs, and a helicopter, but there's no evidence of Ukrainian losses and it wouldn't make sense for them to even attempt sending troops or equipment there when they can safely attack Russians remotely.

More Russian MoD fantasies. Destroying Ukrainian Bayraktars for the the third time, and airplanes for the second time. I think tanks and boats are into the second round as well.

Edit - Meanwhile the glorious Russian military is inventing new ways to use rotten capitalist technologies because glorious Russian technologies are too advanced I guess:

Wrecked Russian fighter jets are being found with rudimentary GPS receivers "taped to the dashboards" in Ukraine because their inbuilt navigation systems are so bad, the UK defense minister said.
[...]
"The result is that whilst Russia have large amounts of artillery and armor that they like parading, they are unable to leverage them for combined arms maneuver and just resort to mass indiscriminate barrages."

Leads me to think that they may not even need sanctions of components. Their own corruption works perfectly well.

There seems to be a very wide distance between the fancy last gen. missiles and some of the jets and the general state of the Russian ground troops.

[TwitchySeal]

Is this part of the parade?

The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

No, I meant the one in Kyiv.  The one that would be naive and foolish to think wouldn't happen.  Why didn't they have one there?  That's rhetorical, of course.  The reason is because the Russian military lost that battle.  I'm just curious how much you're willing to twist yourself to not admit it.  It's tough to deflect such an obvious black and white situation. 

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

[Lucius]

US-sent M777 howitzers have finally been used, and the video shows them successfully destroying 7 of 11 Russian tanks in one convoy. I would say that this is a great result for the first time, and when the Ukrainian soldiers train a little better, I believe it will be even more precise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ZTR6yC6O4

[be.open]

Is this part of the parade?

The parade in Moscow took place yesterday as usual, except that they did not begin to disperse the clouds for the air show. Putin did not declare a general mobilization and the Crimean bridge was also not damaged, so I have nothing to please you with.

No, I meant the one in Kyiv.  The one that would be naive and foolish to think wouldn't happen.  Why didn't they have one there?  That's rhetorical, of course.  The reason is because the Russian military lost that battle.  I'm just curious how much you're willing to twist yourself to not admit it.  It's tough to deflect such an obvious black and white situation. 

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.

This is the third time I have to answer this question. It seems that you are not reading this topic carefully enough before answering something here, which is generally a violation of the Politics branch rules.

[paxmao]

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

US-sent M777 howitzers have finally been used, and the video shows them successfully destroying 7 of 11 Russian tanks in one convoy. I would say that this is a great result for the first time, and when the Ukrainian soldiers train a little better, I believe it will be even more precise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9ZTR6yC6O4

This is what modern artillery does by the looks of it. This is not "barrage" or 100 shells one hit tactics nor a second world war shut and cross fingers - this is tank located, tank blasted.

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

[suchmoon]

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Income potential for the Ukrainian postal service too.

The island is quite small though. I wonder what happens when it's all covered in imaginary downed Bayraktars. I hope it warps through a wormhole into the Red Square.

[Lucius]

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

These howitzers have a range of 24 km up to 100 km depending on the charge they use. You can hardly escape being hit in the open, and since there are mostly inexperienced soldiers in armored vehicles/tanks, they are very easy targets. If you watched the video then you can see that some tanks are trying to go forward, but one was destroyed in motion (2:50), while only a few were saved by returning to the shelter of the settlements they passed through before.

With the fact that more and more smart weapons are coming into the hands of Ukrainians and that they are being trained to use them, Russia's losses will be greater than before.

[Tash]

Victory parade in Mariupol, Ukraine. 09 may2022
https://www.bitchute.com/video/UyWrfnhvkmLO/

[paxmao]

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Income potential for the Ukrainian postal service too.

The island is quite small though. I wonder what happens when it's all covered in imaginary downed Bayraktars. I hope it warps through a wormhole into the Red Square.

Is the perfect size for an early alert radar, six to eight S-400 batteries and, given the need, a few nuclear silos.

It is also the perfect size for an early alert radar, a couple of Patriot batteries and, given the need, a THAAD or some form of earlier interceptor.

Now that we are talking about it... Putin may not be as worried about having nukes near his territory, but rather having a possible current secret or future system of early interception of Nukes. Nukes are very difficult to intercept, in the late stage we are talking objects of 1m diameter going a several times the speed of sound and accelerating at several G's. In the early stage this may actually be possible. I am guessing a lot here but... could be the case.

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

These howitzers have a range of 24 km up to 100 km depending on the charge they use. You can hardly escape being hit in the open, and since there are mostly inexperienced soldiers in armored vehicles/tanks, they are very easy targets. If you watched the video then you can see that some tanks are trying to go forward, but one was destroyed in motion (2:50), while only a few were saved by returning to the shelter of the settlements they passed through before.

With the fact that more and more smart weapons are coming into the hands of Ukrainians and that they are being trained to use them, Russia's losses will be greater than before.

100 km? Are you sure? Anyway, yes these are modern artillery and there seems to be very good geoloc passed to them. Now that I think of it, they may have used NATO guided shells, specific for this smaller targets. That would explain the amazing precision. They do not look like the shells that can actually kill 2 tanks with one round.

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

[LTU_btc]

Interesting stuff about Chief of the General Staff of Russian ARmy Vladimir Gerasimov. He wasn't seen on 9th May parade yesterday:
https://www.newsweek.com/valery-gerasimov-russian-general-victory-day-parade-missing-1704798
There is one possibilty that when he visited Izyum in Ukraine, he was wounded and now in hospital. But there is another prediction that Putin removed him from this position.

A single remote message with information that has not been confirmed does not make the entire channel an unreliable source. With this approach, you will not have any sources at all.

It's not just single message, it's regular thing. There is even rumour that some Russian media isn't allowed to quote Kadyrov without permission from above:
https://rus.ozodi.org/a/31835983.html

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Something like Chornobaivka, right? But in general, I don't think that strategically Snake Island is most imporant object for both sides.

[paxmao]

Interesting stuff about Chief of the General Staff of Russian ARmy Vladimir Gerasimov. He wasn't seen on 9th May parade yesterday:
https://www.newsweek.com/valery-gerasimov-russian-general-victory-day-parade-missing-1704798
There is one possibilty that when he visited Izyum in Ukraine, he was wounded and now in hospital. But there is another prediction that Putin removed him from this position.

A single remote message with information that has not been confirmed does not make the entire channel an unreliable source. With this approach, you will not have any sources at all.

It's not just single message, it's regular thing. There is even rumour that some Russian media isn't allowed to quote Kadyrov without permission from above:
https://rus.ozodi.org/a/31835983.html

Ooops... I took me a while to realise. Snake Island will be used as the bait for the Russian navy in the B.S. There is no intention to "re -capture" in the short term, just to make it look like it could actually be captured and destroy anything getting near by. Quite strategic giving it's proximity to Romania and other countries in the Balcans. Short of a Cuba.

Something like Chornobaivka, right? But in general, I don't think that strategically Snake Island is most imporant object for both sides.

Not the most, that would be Odessa and the south coast. However, this island is very close to NATO. I admit that is nightmare to defend so what I am saying may just not be realistic.

[suchmoon]

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

These are very expensive. Not sure what the advantage is over e.g. Switchblade (speed?) but I thought it would be rare to see Excaliburs in action, maybe against juicy target like radars.

[OutOfMemory]

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

These are very expensive. Not sure what the advantage is over e.g. Switchblade (speed?) but I thought it would be rare to see Excaliburs in action, maybe against juicy target like radars.

Especially combating T72's, where the crew is practically sitting right on their ammo. These could be fought easily and on the cheap using older, unguided anti-tank-weapons. They need closer distance, though, which is not the most favourite in face of an army that tries to break the world record in war crimes.

[tvbcof]

Breaking news!  Western media releases footage, provided by high level sources from within Ukraine, from the catacombs of Avozstal showing preparations for stunning breakout and subsequent recapture of Mariupol.

[coolcoinz]

There seems to be much doubt on the tank group on what to do, something like "hey looks like Boris's been hit. Let's stop right here, to present a better target ourselves".

Deer in the headlights. Let's stand still, maybe they won't see us and are aiming blind at one spot. Oops, sorry guys I was wrong.
When you see that flare bursting, you know they got them good. Ammunition is cooking in there.

Another day of victory for the Russians. They'll be having their victories every day from now on.

-tell Vladimir we have another victory. We've managed to capture another village, our troops are looting already.
-at what cost?
-2 APCs, 1 Tank, one supply truck
-not great, not terrible
-and a SU35S
-Blyat!<starts vomiting>

[TwitchySeal]

[Lucius]

100 km? Are you sure? Anyway, yes these are modern artillery and there seems to be very good geoloc passed to them. Now that I think of it, they may have used NATO guided shells, specific for this smaller targets. That would explain the amazing precision. They do not look like the shells that can actually kill 2 tanks with one round.

One of my local newspaper portals claims that this is possible with a projectile BAE MS-SGP. Translated with GT.

The barrel of the howitzer is 39 calibers, which enables the initial speed with the strongest "8" gunpowder charge of 827 m / s. This achieves a maximum range of 24 km with the unassisted, or 30 km, with the ammunition-assisted rocket engine. The range on the latest version of the M777A2 (older versions of the M777 and M777A1 have been upgraded) has been increased to 40 km. This is due to the use of state-of-the-art M982 Excalibur guided ammunition. Moreover, 100 km can be achieved with the new BAE MS-SGP projectile (Multi Service-Standard Guided Projectile). The first version of the M777 howitzer had only an optical, and the M777A1 version a digital fire control system. The latest version of the M777A2 has upgraded software so it can fire Excalibur missiles and has been in constant use since 2007.

Source

It may be interesting to note that there is speculation that the total number of howitzers is about 90, with as many as 144 000 missiles/rounds. If each howitzer had only 2 successful hits each week, it's not hard to calculate what that means on a monthly basis.

[paxmao]

Edited to add: This is described as a T90. One single hit and looks artillery since there is no missile trail and the guys were not in movement? Nothing alive came out - Please, do not die like this for Putin!

https://youtu.be/fPyHkrRDHgg?t=8

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

These are very expensive. Not sure what the advantage is over e.g. Switchblade (speed?) but I thought it would be rare to see Excaliburs in action, maybe against juicy target like radars.

The switchblade is very cheap true, and you got a point on the Excalibur (still the cost is 1/20 of an average main battle tank and the kill is 99.9% certain in such an open terrain). The 300 cannot deal with a proper tank / APC and I do not know if UKR got the 600's. Even the 600 may not give full certainty of kill when hitting a modern main battletank. Also, their flight time is limited, so they are to be used when there is certainty of finding a target within their range (artillery would normally have more range). Lastly, they are slow.

To be honest, the simplest explanation may be that artillery was there and switchblades were not. I would like to see an weapons analyst take a good look at this video, I guess it will happen at some point.

100 km? Are you sure? Anyway, yes these are modern artillery and there seems to be very good geoloc passed to them. Now that I think of it, they may have used NATO guided shells, specific for this smaller targets. That would explain the amazing precision. They do not look like the shells that can actually kill 2 tanks with one round.

One of my local newspaper portals claims that this is possible with a projectile BAE MS-SGP. Translated with GT.

...

Moreover, 100 km can be achieved with the new BAE MS-SGP projectile (Multi Service-Standard Guided Projectile). The first version of the M777 howitzer had only an optical, and the M777A1 version a digital fire control system. The latest version of the M777A2 has upgraded software so it can fire Excalibur missiles and has been in constant use since 2007.

...
It may be interesting to note that there is speculation that the total number of howitzers is about 90, with as many as 144 000 missiles/rounds. If each howitzer had only 2 successful hits each week, it's not hard to calculate what that means on a monthly basis.

So in essence the howis can fire guided missiles and reach 100 km.... interesting. By taking a look at the current map, Kherson is 100% in that range from Mykolaiv. In Russian territory Belgorod is fully in range for Kharkiv. Even less sophisticated stuff could reach the 50km between the border and Belgorod. A pity the missile launching positions in Crimea are not in that range.

Ukraine will almost certainly get Western precision-guided rounds as part of the package. The American-developed M982 and M982A1 Excalibur artillery shells can home in on a set of GPS coordinates, and unlike artillery of the past, can hit a target with the first round. Excalibur is so precise, the U.S. Army claims, it will hit within two meters of the target “regardless of range.”

However, it is a completely different thing how the tanks react to a hit. At first, they are unlikely to know if it is artillery, a drone, an MANPAD or a Stugna-P or even a land mine. However, no matter what it is, the only thing that is clearly wrong is to sit in there. Tactical Cannon Fodder sent there by a soulless leadership.

These are very expensive. Not sure what the advantage is over e.g. Switchblade (speed?) but I thought it would be rare to see Excaliburs in action, maybe against juicy target like radars.

Especially combating T72's, where the crew is practically sitting right on their ammo. These could be fought easily and on the cheap using older, unguided anti-tank-weapons. They need closer distance, though, which is not the most favourite in face of an army that tries to break the world record in war crimes.

The 72's are "easy" to kill compared to others, but they are tanks. If you see them, they see you. There is an interview with the guy that was with Waly the Canadian sniper that speaks about tanks being spotted but out of range of Javs and actually them being spotted by a tank and shot at.

Javs are great for intimidation (keeping Russ tank officers inside their turrets and thus less "aware"), for urban warfare and to provide infantry with some means of defence against armour. Older AT's... that is a bit of a last resource in open field.