Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[BADecker]

~

You tricky guy. You've been visiting Putin, again. Lol.

I think it was him, I could barely see him from the other side of the table...




~

That's not a table. It's a gigantic, electromagnetic, rail, handgun... and Putin has his finger on the trigger.

[1714696687]

1714696687

[1714696687]

1714696687

[Branko]

Even some Americans understand

https://t.me/vicktop55/15362

[paxmao]

And while we discuss, someone, who could be Ukraine or not, has droned a refinery in the RF. I am sure Putin will class this as terrorist attacks, while the missiles hitting Ukrainian generators and electrical supply installations is just "part of the special operation". Alas, oil does not care much about the definitions and arguments... it simply burns if you bomb it hard enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsOdCBh96Vs

[Branko]

And while we discuss, someone, who could be Ukraine or not, has droned a refinery in the RF. I am sure Putin will class this as terrorist attacks, while the missiles hitting Ukrainian generators and electrical supply installations is just "part of the special operation". Alas, oil does not care much about the definitions and arguments... it simply burns if you bomb it hard enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsOdCBh96Vs

They know Ukraine is incapable of that and its terrorist act by UK, against both RF and Ukraine

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/30/why-russian-oil-and-gas-is-still-flowing-through-ukraine

[paxmao]

And while we discuss, someone, who could be Ukraine or not, has droned a refinery in the RF. I am sure Putin will class this as terrorist attacks, while the missiles hitting Ukrainian generators and electrical supply installations is just "part of the special operation". Alas, oil does not care much about the definitions and arguments... it simply burns if you bomb it hard enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsOdCBh96Vs

They know Ukraine is incapable of that and its terrorist act by UK, against both RF and Ukraine

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/30/why-russian-oil-and-gas-is-still-flowing-through-ukraine

Yes, that is right. It is not like for example someone in Russia decided to send assassins into the UK in peace time and poison someone with a unstable nuclear isotope. The RF government and Putin would never do that because they know that the UK would eventually, even if it takes a long time, would be likely to take some form of pay-back.

The UK sending Challengers, Stormshadows and training Ukrainian soldiers is unrelated to any of this, because the RF would never engage in terrorism in the UK... I guess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko

Alexander Litvinenko was a former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and the KGB. In 1998, Litvinenko and several other Russian intelligence officers said they were ordered to kill Boris Berezovsky, a Russian businessman.[3] After that, the Russian government began to persecute Litvinenko. He fled to the UK, where he criticised the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government.[4] In exile, Litvinenko worked with British and Spanish intelligence, sharing information about the Russian mafia in Europe and its connections with the Russian government.[5]

On 1 November 2006, Litvinenko was poisoned and later hospitalized. He died on 23 November, becoming the first confirmed victim of lethal polonium-210-induced acute radiation syndrome.[3][6] Litvinenko's allegations about misdeeds of the FSB and his public deathbed accusations that Putin was behind his poisoning resulted in worldwide media coverage.

[be.open]

The preparations - which consist of blasting depots and command centres in Crimea - is ongoing. The RF is corresponding with equivalent missile strikes, although the effect is somehow limited from both sides. I believe Ukraine is being marginally more effective, because the setup in Crimea was based on Ukraine not having medium range cruise missiles, which they now do, so it is not as prepared as it should have for this. One exception, it seems that the RF managed to damage 4 planes in an attack, which are important to keep sending Stormshadows their way.

All signs seem to point to an Ukrainian offensive in the south direction, but I would not hurry it as they will not get 5 chances to do this. Zelensky said "it has been decided", which does not offer much information on dates - as it should not for obvious reasons.

I think both sides are exchanging harassing blows to force each other into active offensive action. The situation is similar to a chess zugzwang, when any move significantly worsens the situation, but it seems that the pressure of external circumstances on Zelensky is stronger than on Putin. He promised to take the Crimea in May, but instead, daily strikes on Kyiv and every night an air raid. Let's see who has stronger nerves.

Nah, RF is using all it's got in the frontline and getting 50 meters a day more, 200 soldiers less a day less. BTW it seems that Putin cannot keep the mosquitos out  of home? Seriously, this is they guy that will "protect the Russians" (from what I am not sure).

Regarding nerves... well, It think that you think this is about nerves. I think it is more about using mechanised brigades to break the frontlines. Matters little if you shoot missiles to nowhere in particular with zero strategic value and think that somehow this is going to win you the war.

BTW, according to your leader, that is just an "operation" if it happens in Kyiv, but is "terrorism" if it happens in Moscow. This guy should really make up his mind: either is all right to drone the capital of the opponent or is not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvWRiaXe78M

I will avoid the smiley, this is not funny.

It seems that much more rockets and drones arrive in Kyiv than in Moscow, satellite images and photos of eyewitnesses show traces of arrivals at the headquarters of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine. And where is the Patriot, who should protect Kyiv? Shares of Raytheon Technologies Corporation fell 12% in a month.

[paxmao]

The preparations - which consist of blasting depots and command centres in Crimea - is ongoing. The RF is corresponding with equivalent missile strikes, although the effect is somehow limited from both sides. I believe Ukraine is being marginally more effective, because the setup in Crimea was based on Ukraine not having medium range cruise missiles, which they now do, so it is not as prepared as it should have for this. One exception, it seems that the RF managed to damage 4 planes in an attack, which are important to keep sending Stormshadows their way.

All signs seem to point to an Ukrainian offensive in the south direction, but I would not hurry it as they will not get 5 chances to do this. Zelensky said "it has been decided", which does not offer much information on dates - as it should not for obvious reasons.

I think both sides are exchanging harassing blows to force each other into active offensive action. The situation is similar to a chess zugzwang, when any move significantly worsens the situation, but it seems that the pressure of external circumstances on Zelensky is stronger than on Putin. He promised to take the Crimea in May, but instead, daily strikes on Kyiv and every night an air raid. Let's see who has stronger nerves.

Nah, RF is using all it's got in the frontline and getting 50 meters a day more, 200 soldiers less a day less. BTW it seems that Putin cannot keep the mosquitos out  of home? Seriously, this is they guy that will "protect the Russians" (from what I am not sure).

Regarding nerves... well, It think that you think this is about nerves. I think it is more about using mechanised brigades to break the frontlines. Matters little if you shoot missiles to nowhere in particular with zero strategic value and think that somehow this is going to win you the war.

BTW, according to your leader, that is just an "operation" if it happens in Kyiv, but is "terrorism" if it happens in Moscow. This guy should really make up his mind: either is all right to drone the capital of the opponent or is not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvWRiaXe78M

I will avoid the smiley, this is not funny.

It seems that much more rockets and drones arrive in Kyiv than in Moscow, satellite images and photos of eyewitnesses show traces of arrivals at the headquarters of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine. And where is the Patriot, who should protect Kyiv? Shares of Raytheon Technologies Corporation fell 12% in a month.

Raytheon down? Thanks for the tip! !2% is not much though, they "skyrocketed" (note the pun) before in April. I would not take that as an indicator.

Sure, more missiles are being sent and intercepted over Kyiv, which will not win the war and anyway there is not much that Ukraine can do to avoid it, as the alternative seems to accept being ruled from Moscow which does not look likely. I am sure some psycho out there thinks sending missiles is some short of "strategy" but I fail to see any "return on investment" of launching them into cities with no particular military value. I do not see that resulting in Ukraine being weaker in combat.

Now, the question is not how many missiles can Ukraine deal with, it is how much of a support may Putin get if he cannot even guarantee that his own capital and particularly the richest areas are safe and that even in Russia (Belgorod and other nearby cities) the situation is anything but under control when there is actually no existential threat to the RF other than the very remote possibility (but a possibility still) of loosing hold on Crimea.

To sum up, if Putin is trying to reach a tipping point, it seems closer that the tipping point may reach him.

...

By the way, about that 'greatest counter-offensive' thing:  was that spring 2023, or 2024?  I may have gotten a little confused.

I nearly missed this. The Ukrainian offensive has started. If you ask me, I would not do anything other than what they are doing: degrading the infrastructure that supports the RF front armies, agitating and widening the front, so that the RF has to defend thousands of Km of frontline, instead of being able to concentrate, blasting fuel depots as much as possible to make re-deployment more difficult, testing their weapons and the enemies defences ... The basics, modern war 101. And yes, this costs money and casualties, but it is required.

Just before you say something silly (again), remember what the US did in Iraq before committing ground troops. All levels: morale, logistics, politics, international support,... all needs to be degraded before anything can be done and Iraq did not have many of the capabilities that the RF has (even if these are not half of what they claim).

Also, the F-16 or the Gripen fighters would be a really nice to have, but that will not be possible this early in the year.

But,... nah.. nothing is going to happen, sleep well, drink vodka and go to Belgorod on vacation, I heard is a beautiful place.

Does this sound familiar to anyone?

The General Aggression Model (GAM) – Anderson and Bushman - looks to explain all types of violence, and not just that which is criminal, such as when a law-enforcement officer legitimately uses force, or a country goes to war etc. It recognizes both the characterological factors that are at play, such as a person’s individual propensity to use violence, and the situational inputs that exist in violent incidents, such as a triggering event, like somebody having a drink accidentally spilt over them, and the presence of others who may affect social status etc. The GAM also recognizes that there is often a “Violence Escalation Cycle”, which comprises of sets of interactions between the parties involved, based on the various perspectives that each hold e.g., party A spills a drink over party B, party B shouts at Party A to be more careful and watch themselves etc. Party A believes this is an overreaction and tells Party B that they are being unreasonable and need to calm down etc., Party B, now decides to push Party A, believing this is a justified and reasonable response to being told/ordered to calm down. Party A sees this as a complete overreaction and, unjustified so they push Party B back. In response Party B throws a punch at Party A etc. Somewhere in this escalation, the Vantasner Danger Meridian (that completely fictional “line”) gets crossed. This is somewhere around the point where the Sunk Cost Effect/Fallacy, kicks in for one of the parties. The sunk cost fallacy involves pursuing an inferior alternative because significant but non recoverable resources have been invested. In the case of the aggressive interaction and escalation described above, the inferior alternative is the physical fight; unless one party is clearly physically superior to the other both are likely to get hurt in the exchange, and with society as a whole eschewing violence as a means of demonstrating social superiority the rewards for most people are going to be slim. However, the more emotional and psychological resources each party invests, the likelihood of either walking away is significantly reduced. Most forms of social violence have a tipping point, a point at which someone is unable to back down, and this point can be reached very quickly, which is why aggressive spontaneous/social interactions need to be shutdown quickly.

I think Putin is investing in sunken costs. 101 mistake.

[tvbcof]

...

By the way, about that 'greatest counter-offensive' thing:  was that spring 2023, or 2024?  I may have gotten a little confused.

I nearly missed this. The Ukrainian offensive has started. If you ask me, I would not do anything other than what they are doing: degrading the infrastructure that supports the RF front armies, agitating and widening the front, so that the RF has to defend thousands of Km of frontline, instead of being able to concentrate, blasting fuel depots as much as possible to make re-deployment more difficult, testing their weapons and the enemies defences ... The basics, modern war 101. And yes, this costs money and casualties, but it is required.

Just before you say something silly (again), remember what the US did in Iraq before committing ground troops. All levels: morale, logistics, politics, international support,... all needs to be degraded before anything can be done and Iraq did not have many of the capabilities that the RF has (even if these are not half of what they claim).

Also, the F-16 or the Gripen fighters would be a really nice to have, but that will not be possible this early in the year.

But,... nah.. nothing is going to happen, sleep well, drink vodka and go to Belgorod on vacation, I heard is a beautiful place.

So 'daring' raids across the border to kill a few civilians, and getting chased out a few hours later when the home guard shows up, is the Ukroid conception of a 'Greatest Counter-offensive'?  Figures.

I'm not sure that such a strategy is going to save your nation.  Actually I'm sure it will not and will add significantly to the inevitable woeful endpoint.  But go ahead and do what you gotta do (if you are 'Ukranian' in the first place which I rather doubt.)

[paxmao]

...

By the way, about that 'greatest counter-offensive' thing:  was that spring 2023, or 2024?  I may have gotten a little confused.

I nearly missed this. The Ukrainian offensive has started. If you ask me, I would not do anything other than what they are doing: degrading the infrastructure that supports the RF front armies, agitating and widening the front, so that the RF has to defend thousands of Km of frontline, instead of being able to concentrate, blasting fuel depots as much as possible to make re-deployment more difficult, testing their weapons and the enemies defences ... The basics, modern war 101. And yes, this costs money and casualties, but it is required.

Just before you say something silly (again), remember what the US did in Iraq before committing ground troops. All levels: morale, logistics, politics, international support,... all needs to be degraded before anything can be done and Iraq did not have many of the capabilities that the RF has (even if these are not half of what they claim).

Also, the F-16 or the Gripen fighters would be a really nice to have, but that will not be possible this early in the year.

But,... nah.. nothing is going to happen, sleep well, drink vodka and go to Belgorod on vacation, I heard is a beautiful place.

So 'daring' raids across the border to kill a few civilians, and getting chased out a few hours later when the home guard shows up, is the Ukroid conception of a 'Greatest Counter-offensive'?  Figures.

I'm not sure that such a strategy is going to save your nation.  Actually I'm sure it will not and will add significantly to the inevitable woeful endpoint.  But go ahead and do what you gotta do (if you are 'Ukranian' in the first place which I rather doubt.)

Ukraine has not crossed the border with the RF, just as the RF never sent troops to the Donbas before the war. Just like the pro-Putin "Little Green Men", they bought their supplies in the shops.

Initially, President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated that the men in green were not part of the Russian Armed Forces, but groups of local militia who had seized their weapons from the Ukrainian Army.[18

Civilians have been evacuated, or they should have been, but I am sure that the Russians in the Russian liberation forces will target official buildings or military targets and not kill their fellow Russian brothers, just like the RF army does not want to kill civilians when sending missiles to Kyiv, right?

Anyway, you do not see it at all do you? The offensive has started just under your nose, preparation stage.  Putin has two options: Send troops to Belgorod and other cities or not sending troops.

If he sends the troops, the front is stretched by several hundred miles and the RF needs to move around Ukraine, long path, bad railways and roads, lots of fuel waste. Those troops will not be available stopping attacks elsewhere and will be very very far from the south.

If he decides not to send troops, then, oh well, seems like the Russian liberation groups could capture villages and cities at will, in which case Putin and the Army will be seen as unable to secure their own borders. What you are looking at is war 101 but I understand it may be too much for you, so breaking it down:

- Extend the front
- Create chaos behind the lines
- Degrade the enemies' logistics
- Create political dissent
- Gather intelligence, test defences, test your weapons.

... all by the playbook, but for now, very cleverly executed if you ask me. On top of it, Ukraine has managed to train the "fists" without loosing anything strategic, again, very basic stuff, but very well executed. Including blasting Berdiyans'k supply lines, fuel depots, refineries,... It seems like the US has been having some "Brainstorming" and run a few "planning workshops" with the Ukrainian army, uh?

Now, Ukrainians are rotating troops, it is likely that the more battle able troops will get some relief, while a couple of artillery brigades have been deployed north of Bakhmut, just in case the RF tries something funny. The recently formed armoured and assault brigades are not there in the south for a parade.

Now, ask yourself: The Kerch bridge is still open, but it is hanging by a string. That is a critical supply route, but also the only route to retreat if things go really bad in Crimea. Why? Do you think that Ukraine cannot blast it to a good end?

I have never said I am Ukrainian and I have never denied that I am Ukrainian, but good try.

[BADecker]

~

So 'daring' raids across the border to kill a few civilians, and getting chased out a few hours later when the home guard shows up, is the Ukroid conception of a 'Greatest Counter-offensive'?  Figures.

I'm not sure that such a strategy is going to save your nation.  Actually I'm sure it will not and will add significantly to the inevitable woeful endpoint.  But go ahead and do what you gotta do (if you are 'Ukranian' in the first place which I rather doubt.)

Ukraine has not crossed the border with the RF, just as the RF never sent troops to the Donbas before the war. Just like the pro-Putin "Little Green Men", they bought their supplies in the shops.

Initially, President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated that the men in green were not part of the Russian Armed Forces, but groups of local militia who had seized their weapons from the Ukrainian Army.[18

Civilians have been evacuated, or they should have been, but I am sure that the Russians in the Russian liberation forces will target official buildings or military targets and not kill their fellow Russian brothers, just like the RF army does not want to kill civilians when sending missiles to Kyiv, right?

Anyway, you do not see it at all do you? The offensive has started just under your nose, preparation stage.  Putin has two options: Send troops to Belgorod and other cities or not sending troops.

If he sends the troops, the front is stretched by several hundred miles and the RF needs to move around Ukraine, long path, bad railways and roads, lots of fuel waste. Those troops will not be available stopping attacks elsewhere and will be very very far from the south.

If he decides not to send troops, then, oh well, seems like the Russian liberation groups could capture villages and cities at will, in which case Putin and the Army will be seen as unable to secure their own borders. What you are looking at is war 101 but I understand it may be too much for you, so breaking it down:

- Extend the front
- Create chaos behind the lines
- Degrade the enemies' logistics
- Create political dissent
- Gather intelligence, test defences, test your weapons.

... all by the playbook, but for now, very cleverly executed if you ask me. On top of it, Ukraine has managed to train the "fists" without loosing anything strategic, again, very basic stuff, but very well executed. Including blasting Berdiyans'k supply lines, fuel depots, refineries,... It seems like the US has been having some "Brainstorming" and run a few "planning workshops" with the Ukrainian army, uh?

Now, ask yourself: The Kerch bridge is still open, but it is hanging by a string. That is a critical supply route, but also the only route to retreat if things go really bad in Crimea

I have never said I am Ukrainian and I have never denied that I am Ukrainian, but good try.

Oh, the poor little Russian military, getting stretched all out of shape by protecting their lands, LOL. That big, mean Ukrainian army - made up of underage boys and girls - is just going to whip the crap out of the poor little Russian military.

Actually, I'm waiting to see if somebody in Washington, who has a bit of sense, gets into the office of the presidency, before the draft is instated, so that the US military has somebody to back Ukraine with.

[be.open]

Ukraine has not crossed the border with the RF, just as the RF never sent troops to the Donbas before the war. Just like the pro-Putin "Little Green Men", they bought their supplies in the shops.

Initially, President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated that the men in green were not part of the Russian Armed Forces, but groups of local militia who had seized their weapons from the Ukrainian Army.[18

Civilians have been evacuated, or they should have been, but I am sure that the Russians in the Russian liberation forces will target official buildings or military targets and not kill their fellow Russian brothers, just like the RF army does not want to kill civilians when sending missiles to Kyiv, right?

Anyway, you do not see it at all do you? The offensive has started just under your nose, preparation stage.  Putin has two options: Send troops to Belgorod and other cities or not sending troops.

If he sends the troops, the front is stretched by several hundred miles and the RF needs to move around Ukraine, long path, bad railways and roads, lots of fuel waste. Those troops will not be available stopping attacks elsewhere and will be very very far from the south.

If he decides not to send troops, then, oh well, seems like the Russian liberation groups could capture villages and cities at will, in which case Putin and the Army will be seen as unable to secure their own borders. What you are looking at is war 101 but I understand it may be too much for you, so breaking it down:

- Extend the front
- Create chaos behind the lines
- Degrade the enemies' logistics
- Create political dissent
- Gather intelligence, test defences, test your weapons.

... all by the playbook, but for now, very cleverly executed if you ask me. On top of it, Ukraine has managed to train the "fists" without loosing anything strategic, again, very basic stuff, but very well executed. Including blasting Berdiyans'k supply lines, fuel depots, refineries,... It seems like the US has been having some "Brainstorming" and run a few "planning workshops" with the Ukrainian army, uh?

Now, Ukrainians are rotating troops, it is likely that the more battle able troops will get some relief, while a couple of artillery brigades have been deployed north of Bakhmut, just in case the RF tries something funny. The recently formed armoured and assault brigades are not there in the south for a parade.

Now, ask yourself: The Kerch bridge is still open, but it is hanging by a string. That is a critical supply route, but also the only route to retreat if things go really bad in Crimea. Why? Do you think that Ukraine cannot blast it to a good end?

I have never said I am Ukrainian and I have never denied that I am Ukrainian, but good try.

In general, Ukraine spent the end of spring very poorly. The loss of Bakhmut was not compensated by anything, the counteroffensive on the flanks bogged down and completely lost its meaning. Attempts by cavalry raids into the Belgorod region under a false flag also did not have much success. Daily arrivals in Kyiv show the weakness of Ukrainian air defense, which cannot reliably protect even the capital. I think Russia's actions near Kupyansk, Avdeevka and Marinka are more like an offensive than what Ukraine is doing now.

[paxmao]

Ukraine has not crossed the border with the RF, just as the RF never sent troops to the Donbas before the war. Just like the pro-Putin "Little Green Men", they bought their supplies in the shops.

Initially, President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated that the men in green were not part of the Russian Armed Forces, but groups of local militia who had seized their weapons from the Ukrainian Army.[18

Civilians have been evacuated, or they should have been, but I am sure that the Russians in the Russian liberation forces will target official buildings or military targets and not kill their fellow Russian brothers, just like the RF army does not want to kill civilians when sending missiles to Kyiv, right?

Anyway, you do not see it at all do you? The offensive has started just under your nose, preparation stage.  Putin has two options: Send troops to Belgorod and other cities or not sending troops.

If he sends the troops, the front is stretched by several hundred miles and the RF needs to move around Ukraine, long path, bad railways and roads, lots of fuel waste. Those troops will not be available stopping attacks elsewhere and will be very very far from the south.

If he decides not to send troops, then, oh well, seems like the Russian liberation groups could capture villages and cities at will, in which case Putin and the Army will be seen as unable to secure their own borders. What you are looking at is war 101 but I understand it may be too much for you, so breaking it down:

- Extend the front
- Create chaos behind the lines
- Degrade the enemies' logistics
- Create political dissent
- Gather intelligence, test defences, test your weapons.

... all by the playbook, but for now, very cleverly executed if you ask me. On top of it, Ukraine has managed to train the "fists" without loosing anything strategic, again, very basic stuff, but very well executed. Including blasting Berdiyans'k supply lines, fuel depots, refineries,... It seems like the US has been having some "Brainstorming" and run a few "planning workshops" with the Ukrainian army, uh?

Now, Ukrainians are rotating troops, it is likely that the more battle able troops will get some relief, while a couple of artillery brigades have been deployed north of Bakhmut, just in case the RF tries something funny. The recently formed armoured and assault brigades are not there in the south for a parade.

Now, ask yourself: The Kerch bridge is still open, but it is hanging by a string. That is a critical supply route, but also the only route to retreat if things go really bad in Crimea. Why? Do you think that Ukraine cannot blast it to a good end?

I have never said I am Ukrainian and I have never denied that I am Ukrainian, but good try.

In general, Ukraine spent the end of spring very poorly. The loss of Bakhmut was not compensated by anything, the counteroffensive on the flanks bogged down and completely lost its meaning. Attempts by cavalry raids into the Belgorod region under a false flag also did not have much success. Daily arrivals in Kyiv show the weakness of Ukrainian air defense, which cannot reliably protect even the capital. I think Russia's actions near Kupyansk, Avdeevka and Marinka are more like an offensive than what Ukraine is doing now.

Yes and no. They did exchange Bakhmut for time to train several brigades and arm them with western equipment and to have the battle there, which is as good as any other place. I guess it is a decent trade these new capabilities for city that is not really strategic and costed the RF quite a bit of one of the few units (Wagner) that has some ability to assault and assume losses without crumbling down (even if it is by killing anyone who steps back, so the only option is forward, very WW I style).

The expectations about "the counteroffensive" (such a noob term) have been set so high, that unless they invade Moscow, it will not ever be enough lol. But Ukraine, who only had a shield, now has fists and teeth. They only get one chance at getting this right and if it is still in preparation, it is absolutely all right, properly done should not take more than 3 months to execute, so still well in time and well measured to start a slower phase when the cold arrives. If there is any peace over the next couple of years, the situation on the terrain will mark what are the conditions for both sides.

Yes there is offensive action by the RF army in some areas of the Donbas, mixed success, 50m a day thing, much less than what they have been able to put together. Before something turns around, first goes slower, then stops.

EDIT: 2023.06.05 - It would seem that the "preparation" has been completed and something is moving in the front.... or maybe it is just a live fire training for Ukraine, who knows.

EDIT: 2023.06.05 - There are unconfirmed news of Wagnerites actually being attacked by the regular RF army! It seems even a ranked officer of the RF was captured.

[LTU_btc]

In general, Ukraine spent the end of spring very poorly. The loss of Bakhmut was not compensated by anything, the counteroffensive on the flanks bogged down and completely lost its meaning. Attempts by cavalry raids into the Belgorod region under a false flag also did not have much success. Daily arrivals in Kyiv show the weakness of Ukrainian air defense, which cannot reliably protect even the capital. I think Russia's actions near Kupyansk, Avdeevka and Marinka are more like an offensive than what Ukraine is doing now.

Raids into Belgorod region didn't had much success? I'm wondering what you would call success? Taking Belgorod in 3 days?
Daily arrivals to Kyiv, you're probably about Konashnenkov fairytales that all targets were reached. But in reality Kyiv air defense have high rate of hited missiles and drones. Not 100% what is almost impossible, but above 90% what is very solid.
And counteroffensive failed before it even started, it's more narrative from Russian propaganda, when in reality nobody didn't promised exact dates when it will start.
BTW, not sure that we can call it as counteroffensive, but Ukraine made some progress in Zaporizhia oblast:
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1665500860791521282

[Branko]

Ukraine: "lets not talk about counteroffensive...if it fails, we'll say it didn't even start yet, if it
succeeds, we'll start parroting it"

[paxmao]

Ukraine: "lets not talk about counteroffensive...if it fails, we'll say it didn't even start yet, if it
succeeds, we'll start parroting it"

Thanks good idea, I mean for someone so used to propaganda than thinks other are stupid. Either there is an advance or not, either it is significant or not and finally the only problem is that it only works until the winter - if nothing has happened by then, oh well,... another try next year, possibly with more trained troops and better means.

[LTU_btc]

Tonight Russia huge terrorist attack - they blew up Kakhovka dam. But I guess they won't call it terrorist attack and they already blaming Ukraine for it, but it's not possible to it with artillery or Himars. Story with Antonov bridge is best proof it.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-kyiv-accuses-russia-of-blowing-up-kakhovka-dam-evacuations-in-flood-zones-ordered/a-65833125
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-blows-up-major-nova-kakhovka-dam-southern-ukraine-2023-06-06/
Consequences of might be terrible and lot of cities and villages in both sides of Dnipro river is under risk of flooding. In some places like Nova Kakhovka (currently occupied) streets is already turning into rivers.
This dam supplied water to Zaporizhia power plant. Also, it was main supplier of water to Crimea, so these idiots literally cut branch that they're sitting on.

[paxmao]

Tonight Russia huge terrorist attack - they blew up Kakhovka dam. But I guess they won't call it terrorist attack and they already blaming Ukraine for it, but it's not possible to it with artillery or Himars. Story with Antonov bridge is best proof it.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-kyiv-accuses-russia-of-blowing-up-kakhovka-dam-evacuations-in-flood-zones-ordered/a-65833125
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-blows-up-major-nova-kakhovka-dam-southern-ukraine-2023-06-06/
Consequences of might be terrible and lot of cities and villages in both sides of Dnipro river is under risk of flooding. In some places like Nova Kakhovka (currently occupied) streets is already turning into rivers.
This dam supplied water to Zaporizhia power plant. Also, it was main supplier of water to Crimea, so these idiots literally cut branch that they're sitting on.

They did not cut the line to Crimea, that is on the east bank and can be supplied without the dam apparently, and they damaged the dam just enough to engulf and drown the islands but not flooding the RF controlled territory. If you ask me, the only thing that does not match is them not shelling the boats that were evacuating the Ukrainian soldiers.

[tvbcof]

The Ukroids have a much tougher row to hoe trying to work backwards into new-Russia.  This because the Russians can evacuate civilians and thus the tried-and-true Ukrainian methods of using human shields won't work as well.  The Russians are in this case able to open up with both barrels since collateral damage isn't as much of a problem.

The recent experience in the small salient which the Ukrainians tried to attack bears witness to what I'm talking about (no pun intended.)  Word is that the NATO losses were 1500 KIA, 28 tanks (including NATO Western gear) and over 100 armored vehicles.  That's some pretty good kills by SMO standards, and in one day NATO were beaten back to their starting points with nothing to show for the losses.  As per an above post, might be a good time to use the 'just joking' line vis-a-vis the 'start of the greatest counteroffensive'.

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kp1I55f-iHk

If the Russians are ever compelled to put boots on the ground in Western Ukraine to face the swastika Nazis on their home turf, I would anticipate that they would feel similarly freed from concerns about collateral damage.  At this point in time anyway.

On the dam thing, I think it quite possible that the Russians did indeed do it.  NATO took a feeble crack at it just before the Russians left the West bank in Kherson half a year ago, so I figure that the Russians consider the deed fair game.  Beyond that, it makes tactical sense with so many Ukrainians disrupted and drowned.

It makes sense in a logical world that the question of 'who-done-it?' would be informed by asking who lost equipment in the low-lands and that sort of thing.  In the current clown-world rife with desperate-crackhead-UkroidianNATO-ass-fuckery it doesn't mean a lot.  Both sides are happier with more dead Ukrainians than less.

[paxmao]

The Ukroids have a much tougher row to hoe trying to work backwards into new-Russia.  This because the Russians can evacuate civilians and thus the tried-and-true Ukrainian methods of using human shields won't work as well.  The Russians are in this case able to open up with both barrels since collateral damage isn't as much of a problem.

The recent experience in the small salient which the Ukrainians tried to attack bears witness to what I'm talking about (no pun intended.)  Word is that the NATO losses were 1500 KIA, 28 tanks (including NATO Western gear) and over 100 armored vehicles.  That's some pretty good kills by SMO standards, and in one day NATO were beaten back to their starting points with nothing to show for the losses.  As per an above post, might be a good time to use the 'just joking' line vis-a-vis the 'start of the greatest counteroffensive'.

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kp1I55f-iHk

If the Russians are ever compelled to put boots on the ground in Western Ukraine to face the swastika Nazis on their home turf, I would anticipate that they would feel similarly freed from concerns about collateral damage.  At this point in time anyway.

On the dam thing, I think it quite possible that the Russians did indeed do it.  NATO took a feeble crack at it just before the Russians left the West bank in Kherson half a year ago, so I figure that the Russians consider the deed fair game.  Beyond that, it makes tactical sense with so many Ukrainians disrupted and drowned.

It makes sense in a logical world that the question of 'who-done-it?' would be informed by asking who lost equipment in the low-lands and that sort of thing.  In the current clown-world rife with desperate-crackhead-UkroidianNATO-ass-fuckery it doesn't mean a lot.  Both sides are happier with more dead Ukrainians than less.

Several cognitive dissonances here. The damaging of the dam does not really kill many Ukrainians and it was probably within the probability calculus, it is just making an offensive temporarily more difficult. It only benefits RF.

The rhetoric about NATO wanting more Ukrainian casualties links with the false argument of Ukraine should not fight to avoid casualties. The right argument is Putin should not have started a war and there would be no casualties.

The Russians did not "leave the west bank" of the Dnipro, they were thrown out.

NATO is not a combatant in the Ukrainian war, but if  NATO wanted the dam gone, there would be no "feeble attempt", there will be a "dam no longer there" after a GBU.

You KIA figures come from some RF MoD reports that aims to "destroy in paper" everything that they cannot really destroy in the battlefield. The losses you claim are probably superior to the troops that have even taken part in the recent hostile recognisance of the terrain / minor preparations. Read well, you have seen nothing.

NATO is not a combatant in the Ukrainian war - it would be finished by now, with a parade in Moscow, so NATO cannot be beaten back nor beaten forward nor beaten sideways. Ukrainian troops still preserve part of the positions taken and there are rumours that indicate they have taken some terrain near Bakhmut, however at the moment there is a clear request for silence from the Ukraine MoD, so ... nothing else to add.

I do not understand the term Ukroid. I assume this is your attempt to de-humanize the enemy "so it is ok to kill them". Very Nazi from you.

Re Nazis, non-sense, this is a war for Crimea, anyone can see it.

[BADecker]

We can't do it. You guys do it. Lol.

How many of the Nato countries really want to keep on supporting Ukraine? It's all a good, save-face show.


Poland does not plan to donate its own F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, but urges other nations to do so


https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-06-05-polish-pm-warsaw-wont-supply-jets-ukraine.html
Poland will not send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to the country’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. However, he called on other nations to provide the aircraft at the soonest.

“We have too few F-16 aircraft. So at the moment today, there are no such expectations from us,” Morawiecki said during a June 1 press conference on the first day of the European Political Community Summit in Moldova. Polskie Radio reported that the Polish leader also noted Warsaw’s lack of Patriot air defense systems to send to Kyiv.

The Polish Air Force officially has 48 F-16 fighter jets, 12 of which are training variants. It has ordered 48 KAI T-50 Golden Eagle jets from South Korea and 32 F-35 jets from the United States. However, the 80 jets Warsaw ordered have not yet been delivered.

“We handed over our MiG-29 [jets] – good planes, good fighters –  and this is greatly appreciated,” Morawiecki added. Poland followed Slovakia in sending Ukraine some units from its fleet of 19 MiG-29 jets to aid the beleaguered nation.

The Polish prime minister added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked him for organizing the “F-16 coalition,” pertaining to the effort by several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to supply Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets. While Poland and other NATO member states have offered to train Ukrainian pilots, it remains unclear where the planes would actually come from.

Morawiecki also shared some “bad news” regarding the Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine that were damaged or destroyed by Russian missile strikes.

“Just as we don’t have enough F-16 fighter [jets], we can’t hand over our Patriot systems to Ukraine for the same reason,” he said. Nevertheless, the Polish leader exhorted other nations with Patriot systems “to share them with Ukraine as soon as possible.”

“Patriots and F-16s are the latest ‘game-changer’ weapons Kyiv has demanded from the West to bolster its forces’ combat capabilities against Russia, especially in the light of its planned counter-offensive,” Russia Today (RT) pointed out.

Lavrov: Moscow will react to F-16 deliveries to Ukraine
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