Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

Edit for an update: Several ATACAMS strikes have taken place in Crimea. It seems that they can perfectly skip the air defence.

I disagree and you do not have any believable source. The systems are not Ukrainian and every nation has the right to operate their own equipment in their territory and in international airspace. They are also free to use the intelligence gathered as they see fit.

But enough of silly stuff, my guess is that such integration is going towards creating a balanced if not Ukrainian superior sky in the frontlines. Air defences, F-16s that should be soon arriving will be able to see and target with a minutes time with integrated systems.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/25/european-trained-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-will-not-be-ready-until-late-2024_6669456_4.html

Whole "F16 training" is a sham, ask any experienced pilot. Training program serves as a cover for a fact
that planes will be operated by western pilots

Regarding the date, yes it is well know, they are not going to put their beloved f16 out there with the hours of  training of, for example, a Ruzzian pilot. I guess that after pilots with experience in F29 get one year of training in F-16 you are going to argue that now they are "western pilots"??

On your second statement... as usual, no credible source. I will give you one:

https://www.twz.com/this-is-how-long-it-would-really-take-ukraines-pilots-to-convert-to-f-16s

For experienced Ukrainian fighter pilots, a type conversion to the F-16 could resemble a typical FTU transition conversion course, known as TX.

“For a pilot with around 500 hours experience in a Western fighter, but that has never previously flown the F-16 — someone transitioning from the Hornet for example — without any breaks, working weekends, etc, they need 69 days to learn everything to safely employ the Viper in air-to-air and air-to-ground roles,”

“The answer initially would have to be based on building a new syllabus based on Ukraine’s specific needs and the threat scenario, and to then take that into combat would need anywhere between six and 12 months of training. It would still be risky, but that might outweigh the rewards.”

Why would they wait for a year to field the f16 if they were going to use "western pilots"? They would say that it took 2 months of training and then send the f16 + "western pilots" with a few years of experience in the jet. It

Regarding the integration, I have seen recently a tablet / ipad attached to an Ukrainian cockpit with battlefield information. My guess is that this information is going to be integrated properly. This means pilots will have view of all detected threats and radars and be able to be more effective in suppressing the Ruzzian air defences or avoiding them.

If you look at my previous posts quoting strategies, it seems that Ukraine / US have finally come to the conclusion that there are no shortcuts, they have to wage war as it has be done: first weaken, then attack. The opposite does not work. The air strategy for Ukraine perfectly fits this narrative and the content of the aid package does also support it.

Again, I expect to see from Ukraine more attacks on refineries - even crude exporting facilities after the US elections, more attacks on air defence systems to start clearing the air for the f16s and the Ukrainian aviation being more effective while the Ruzzian aviation starts either being grounded or start taking big loses.

[paxmao]

I saw this video today (it is a bit nasty, so see it at your risk). Ukraine has clearly shown they do have ATACAMS, and they can use them very effectively even in areas that are supposedly behind the Ruzzian air defence umbrella. The effect on any airfield, any training camp or in any other concentration of "soft targets" is devastating. Hundreds of men or a handfull of planes can be blow-up on sight with a single strike.

To note, Ukraine spent 4 missiles to do the job of one. I think they expected at least some interceptions by the Ruzzian air defence that simply did not happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKv_1bA-qrY


Apparently yet another refinery has been hit near Moscow. Sources point to a 10% increase in gasoline prices in Ruzzia in the last week. Let us see if any of the resident trolls of this thread wants to throw smoke on what's happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33F0gzsf0uQ


Protest in Georgia seem to be catching speed....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2i5PTf2jdc

[be.open]

Meanwhile, Russia took Rabotino, reversing the main success of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive. In general, Russia is successfully advancing along almost the entire front line. Ukraine cannot stop the breakthrough in Ocheretino; it seems that Syrsky has run out of combat-ready reserves.

[paxmao]

Meanwhile, Russia took Rabotino, reversing the main success of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive. In general, Russia is successfully advancing along almost the entire front line. Ukraine cannot stop the breakthrough in Ocheretino; it seems that Syrsky has run out of combat-ready reserves.

Too many of frog jumps in just two sentences. Robotine does not seem to be under Ruzzian control in the most trusted maps. I think that at least the southern part has changed hands three or four times. I am not saying it cannot happen, it all depends on the supplies arriving on time, but not yet.

On Ocheretino, the problem is not "reserves" is more about munitions & supplies, which eventually will arrive. Obviously, it is not good news to loose a few villages, but there are many failed (spectacularly failed) attacks along the frontlines with huge costs to the Ruzzian stockpile of vehicles. Very expensive real state you are buying.

Anyway, I can see that in the map Ruzzia has the initiative, but as you zoom out and see the strategic level... it is a completely different story.

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

[Branko]

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

Really? I heard Russians blew up 155mm munitions cargo in Odessa

https://t.me/vicktop55/24220

[paxmao]

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

Really? I heard Russians blew up 155mm munitions cargo in Odessa

https://t.me/vicktop55/24220

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JMY40K_S9M

Obviously "weapons"



Obviously "a concentration of troops" in Odessa village

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26IfB34LIW4

I am going to leave it there, but if required there is evidence of hitting power facilities, city centres, dams... I guess Ruzzia is just like that, they firmly believe in terrorism as another tool for war. Another great reason to help Ukraine and get Ruzzia demilitarised as much as possible so at least we have a couple of generations growing in peace.

[be.open]

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

I don't follow developments in Ukraine closely enough to track every blow. From what I know, the recent rocket attack with a cluster warhead on the beach in Odessa, where it seems like five random passers-by were injured, smells like a crap war crime and makes no sense from a military point of view.

The rest of your accusations are most likely groundless; Russian intelligence has been working very well lately. Regarding the destruction of dams on the Dnieper, this is funny. All dams are in place, only the turbine rooms of hydroelectric power plants have been destroyed.

[paxmao]

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

I don't follow developments in Ukraine closely enough to track every blow. From what I know, the recent rocket attack with a cluster warhead on the beach in Odessa, where it seems like five random passers-by were injured, smells like a crap war crime and makes no sense from a military point of view.

The rest of your accusations are most likely groundless; Russian intelligence has been working very well lately. Regarding the destruction of dams on the Dnieper, this is funny. All dams are in place, only the turbine rooms of hydroelectric power plants have been destroyed.

Please read carefully- I said damaged. It is still a war crime as these have nil military value and this is just an attempt to make Ukrainian cities unliveable.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-swings-into-69-billion-net-loss-2023-2024-05-02/

Emm, it seems that the frog is boiling faster than I would have suspected.

MOSCOW, May 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab said on Thursday it plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023, its first annual loss in more than 20 years, amid dwindling gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market.

[...]
It said on Thursday it made a net loss of 364 billion roubles from sales in 2023, in contrast to a profit of 1.9 trillion roubles in 2022.

What is going on in Georgia??

[be.open]

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

I don't follow developments in Ukraine closely enough to track every blow. From what I know, the recent rocket attack with a cluster warhead on the beach in Odessa, where it seems like five random passers-by were injured, smells like a crap war crime and makes no sense from a military point of view.

The rest of your accusations are most likely groundless; Russian intelligence has been working very well lately. Regarding the destruction of dams on the Dnieper, this is funny. All dams are in place, only the turbine rooms of hydroelectric power plants have been destroyed.

Please read carefully- I said damaged. It is still a war crime as these have nil military value and this is just an attempt to make Ukrainian cities unliveable.

The dams are not damaged. Ukraine has serious problems with electricity and heat generation that cannot be solved in the foreseeable future, but the hydroelectric dams themselves on the Dnieper were not damaged, otherwise there would have been large-scale flooding of the territories. And this is not a war crime, but rather helping Ukraine get rid of the unwanted legacy of the USSR.

ps do not pollute the topic with events in Georgia, this is a topic about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

[Branko]

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

I don't follow developments in Ukraine closely enough to track every blow. From what I know, the recent rocket attack with a cluster warhead on the beach in Odessa, where it seems like five random passers-by were injured, smells like a crap war crime and makes no sense from a military point of view.

The rest of your accusations are most likely groundless; Russian intelligence has been working very well lately. Regarding the destruction of dams on the Dnieper, this is funny. All dams are in place, only the turbine rooms of hydroelectric power plants have been destroyed.

Please read carefully- I said damaged. It is still a war crime as these have nil military value and this is just an attempt to make Ukrainian cities unliveable.

The dams are not damaged. Ukraine has serious problems with electricity and heat generation that cannot be solved in the foreseeable future, but the hydroelectric dams themselves on the Dnieper were not damaged, otherwise there would have been large-scale flooding of the territories. And this is not a war crime, but rather helping Ukraine get rid of the unwanted legacy of the USSR.

ps do not pollute the topic with events in Georgia, this is a topic about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

LOL, "unwanted legacy of USSR"

BTW:

" "Dual-use" targets, used by civilians and military, were attacked, including bridges across the Danube, factories, power stations, telecommunications facilities, the headquarters of Yugoslav Leftists, a political party led by Milošević's wife, and the Avala TV Tower. Some protested that these actions were violations of international law and the Geneva Conventions. NATO argued these facilities were potentially useful to the Yugoslav military and thus their bombing was justified"

I guess practically everything can be classified as "useful to military" in a war anywhere

[paxmao]

[...]

[...] And this is not a war crime, but rather helping Ukraine get rid of the unwanted legacy of the USSR.

For that you would need to resuscitate the millions of Ukrainians that were starved to death by Stalin.

The Holodomor,[a] also known as the Ukrainian Famine,[9] was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.

And you there wondering why are they fighting for uh??

The biggest mistake of Ukraine was handing over the strategic bombers and the nukes that the commies left there. I am guessing that if they have nukes in their territory in the future they may not make that mistake.

[Branko]

For that you would need to resuscitate the millions of Ukrainians that were starved to death by Stalin.

Ukrainians should definitely attack Georgia to get revenge for Stalin crimes!


Meanwhile, Russians attacked Germany

[DaRude]

...

What is going on in Georgia??

A fresh Russian push will test Ukraine severely, says a senior general
...
But he sounds troubled as he assesses Ukraine’s battlefield prospects. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse.
...
Ukraine’s immediate concern is its high-ground stronghold in the town of Chasiv Yar, which holds the keys to an onward Russian advance to the last large cities in the Donetsk region (see map). It is probably a matter of time before that city falls in a similar way to Avdiivka, bombed to oblivion by the Russians in February, says the general.
...
Russia has already won a tactical success in the south-west in the village of Ocheretyne, where a recent Ukrainian troop rotation was bungled. Russian forces succeeded in breaking through a first line of defence and have created a salient 25 square kilometres in size. Ukraine is some way from stabilising the situation, while Russia is throwing “everything” it has to achieve a bigger gain. The Russian army is not the hubristic organisation it was in 2022, says the general, and is now operating as a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command”.
...
Russia has a total of 514,000 land troops committed to the Ukrainian operation, he says, higher than the 470,000 estimate given last month by General Christopher Cavoli, nato’s top commander. The Ukrainian spymaster says Russia’s northern grouping, based across the border from Kharkiv, is currently 35,000-strong but is set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops. Russia is also “generating a division of reserves” (ie, between 15,000 and 20,000 men) in central Russia, which they can add to the main effort.
...
May will be the key month, says the general, with Russia employing a “three-layered” plan to destabilise the country. The main factor is military. Even though America’s Congress belatedly gave the go-ahead for more military aid, it will take weeks before it filters through to the front line. It is unlikely to match Russia’s stock of shells or provide an effective defence against Russia’s low-tech, destructive guided aerial bombs.
...
General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says.

But what does General Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, know, right?

...After that [Switzerland peace conference next month], communication with Russia may take place and Russia can be part of the talks. Because you are right: In the end, you cannot put the war to an end without both parties.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, hints at starting negotiations with Russia, now just need to change that law against negotiations with Putin that Zelenskyy signed.

Georgia's Law on transparency of foreign influence, based on US's Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), requires all organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as agents of foreign influence. Who could possibly not like more transparency and accountability for foreign funds and influences? Well, it doesn't serve your purpose when you're shoveling money there to buy influence. But it passed in 2nd reading, and 3rd and final reading should happen this month.

Now how is this relevant to topic at hand, instead of committing to one side or the other (and risking choosing the loosing side) it makes more sense to sit on a fence until a winner starts emerging. Each state has intelligence agencies/analysts/models, thus watching states pivot one way or the other is a good indicator of things to come. Think of it this way, what would it tell you if for example Belarus would start to distance itself and pivot away from Russia, do you think any country would start pivoting away from a projected winner?

[paxmao]

For that you would need to resuscitate the millions of Ukrainians that were starved to death by Stalin.

Ukrainians should definitely attack Georgia to get revenge for Stalin crimes!


Meanwhile, Russians attacked Germany

USSR legacy. Moscow. They are fighting the right people.

There has been short of an attack by proxy to Rheinmetall. Bad idea, it will only make it more clear to everyone why Ruzzia needs to be stopped.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/rheinmetall-ceo-eyes-global-stage-with-growing-order-book-2024-05-03/

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government launched a 100 billion euro special defence fund in 2022 in what it described as a "Zeitenwende" or turning point to increase its military spending after Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Congratulations on your "attack". Two more and the Eurozone Army will be officially created.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/03/ukraine-war-briefing-ukrainians-have-the-right-to-strike-inside-russia-says-david-cameron

Ukraine war briefing:
Ukrainians ‘have the right to strike inside Russia’, says David Cameron
France’s Macron stands firm on potentially sending troops
Emmanuel Macron has said the question of sending western troops to Ukraine would “legitimately” arise if Russia broke through Ukrainian frontlines and Kyiv made such a request
sanctions on Russian gas leave Gazprom with record annual loss.
David Cameron has said, as the UK foreign secretary promised £3bn a year “for as long as it is necessary” to help Kyiv

My guess is that Ruzzia can keep this up for a two years if the level of support to Ukraine does not increase. But there is a cliff for Putin after.

[be.open]

[...]

[...] And this is not a war crime, but rather helping Ukraine get rid of the unwanted legacy of the USSR.

For that you would need to resuscitate the millions of Ukrainians that were starved to death by Stalin.

The Holodomor,[a] also known as the Ukrainian Famine,[9] was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.

And you there wondering why are they fighting for uh??

The biggest mistake of Ukraine was handing over the strategic bombers and the nukes that the commies left there. I am guessing that if they have nukes in their territory in the future they may not make that mistake.

You have a very low culture of argument if you allow yourself to substitute concepts like this. This doesn't make you an interesting conversationalist. I would respect you more if you found the strength to admit that you were wrong in blaming Russia for damaging the dams on the Dnieper. Because the only dam that was damaged on the Dnieper is the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam, this happened a year ago and there is no evidence that Russia did it (but there is numerous evidence that that dam was repeatedly shelled by Ukraine).

[paxmao]

[...]

[...] And this is not a war crime, but rather helping Ukraine get rid of the unwanted legacy of the USSR.

For that you would need to resuscitate the millions of Ukrainians that were starved to death by Stalin.

The Holodomor,[a] also known as the Ukrainian Famine,[9] was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.

And you there wondering why are they fighting for uh??

The biggest mistake of Ukraine was handing over the strategic bombers and the nukes that the commies left there. I am guessing that if they have nukes in their territory in the future they may not make that mistake.

You have a very low culture of argument if you allow yourself to substitute concepts like this. This doesn't make you an interesting conversationalist. I would respect you more if you found the strength to admit that you were wrong in blaming Russia for damaging the dams on the Dnieper. Because the only dam that was damaged on the Dnieper is the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam, this happened a year ago and there is no evidence that Russia did it (but there is numerous evidence that that dam was repeatedly shelled by Ukraine).

Again the Khakova dam denial? You cannot destroy a dam like that one by just shelling, even if there was shelling. It is also something that benefits Ruzzia done at the time in which was more beneficial for Ruzzia. It is just senseless to deny.

I am absolutely fine with you not respecting my conversations skills, but also I am guessing that you are ignoring that a hydroelectric central is basically a dam + a few turbines and other electrical equipment? Anyway...

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-shelling-severely-damages-ukraine-s-zaporizhzhia-dam/7573570.html

In late March, Russian shelling severely damaged Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric plant. The attack on the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Station and dam in the frontline city of Zaporizhzhia is a challenge for locals and those living both up and downstream. Eva Myronova has the story, narrated by Anna Rice.

It probably does not come out in your official TV channels, so it is ok if you just do not know what is happening in Ukraine, nor probably further 1 km away from your own living place.

[be.open]

Again the Khakova dam denial? You cannot destroy a dam like that one by just shelling, even if there was shelling. It is also something that benefits Ruzzia done at the time in which was more beneficial for Ruzzia. It is just senseless to deny.

This is a weak argument. Sabotage on the Nord Stream is clearly beneficial to the United States, but this is not strong evidence of US guilt.

I am absolutely fine with you not respecting my conversations skills, but also I am guessing that you are ignoring that a hydroelectric central is basically a dam + a few turbines and other electrical equipment? Anyway...

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-shelling-severely-damages-ukraine-s-zaporizhzhia-dam/7573570.html

In late March, Russian shelling severely damaged Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric plant. The attack on the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Station and dam in the frontline city of Zaporizhzhia is a challenge for locals and those living both up and downstream. Eva Myronova has the story, narrated by Anna Rice.

It probably does not come out in your official TV channels, so it is ok if you just do not know what is happening in Ukraine, nor probably further 1 km away from your own living place.

So what is a war crime here? This is normal military work to weaken the military-industrial potential of Ukraine as part of the general task of its demilitarization. In addition to the two hydroelectric power stations on the Dnieper, the hydroelectric power station on the Dniester, the thermal power plant near Kiev and many others also stopped generating. In general, since the beginning of spring, Ukraine has lost about half of its electricity and heat generation, or 80-90% of its entire generation except nuclear power plants. What are you complaining about here?

[Branko]

It probably does not come out in your official TV channels, so it is ok if you just do not know what is happening in Ukraine, nor probably further 1 km away from your own living place.

Obviously, he should listen to propaganda channel like VOA to get "real" info.

LOL

[paxmao]

It probably does not come out in your official TV channels, so it is ok if you just do not know what is happening in Ukraine, nor probably further 1 km away from your own living place.

Obviously, he should listen to propaganda channel like VOA to get "real" info.

LOL

Branko, are you saying that the dam I said was attacked by Ruzzia was not attacked by Ruzzia or just making casual comments?

[Branko]

It probably does not come out in your official TV channels, so it is ok if you just do not know what is happening in Ukraine, nor probably further 1 km away from your own living place.

Obviously, he should listen to propaganda channel like VOA to get "real" info.

LOL

Branko, are you saying that the dam I said was attacked by Ruzzia was not attacked by Ruzzia or just making casual comments?

NATO itself said dams are legal target (at least when NATO bomb them).
So why should we use one rule for NATO, and another for Russia?