Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[LTU_btc]

I would expect to see thousands of posts on social media from the soldiers and impacted civilians on both sides of the conflict - instead, nothing but crickets.

I don't get your point, do you want to say that there is not enough videos from this war? If that's your point, you're completely wrong. Probably none of wars before didn't had so much coverage. You shouldn't expect such videos from soldiers, do you think that they're allowed to upload everything from front line? But still, quite often such videos appears. While if something happens in cities, like arrival of missile, drone, air defense hitting missiles and etc, such things appears on internet from all possible angles. If you don't see such stuff, probably you're looking  in wrong places.
There is less videos from front line, simply because there is barely any civilians left, but still, there is plenty of videos filmed from drones.

Morozov air base. How is is possible that a slow flying drone managed to hit an air base full of SU bombers?

https://youtu.be/sxZcsWvQCQA?t=58

Also, in Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region first Su-57 fighter jet was hit and destroyed or at least damaged.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1799689562257527224
It's one of newest Russian fighter jets and they have just few of them.
BTW, there is good map with all Russian oblasts were various objects were attacked by drones
https://t.me/WarZoneInc/80794
EDIT @paxmao was faster with this stuff .

[Betwrong]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

[cpu6502]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

There'll be no "wins" for either side this year.
A very good indicator how well Russia is performing is a watching the inverse correlation of the amount nuclear threats spewing out of them.
When things are looking good, the nuclear threats drop.
When things are looking bad, the nuclear threats ramp up.

Last week the threats went into overdrive. Therefore things are very very bad for Russia.

[BADecker]

^^^ Russia has a long-standing, good relationship with China. US beware.

The problem for Russia is the funding to Ukraine from the US and Nato... even if much of it goes into Zelensky's personal pockets. So, Zelensky accepts apologies from Biden now that he is making money again.

The problem for the US is to stop placing their trust in Zelensky. It's doomed to fail... when you consider China with Russia.


Biden apologizes to Zelenskyy for monthslong congressional holdup to weapons that let Russia advance


https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-biden-zelenskyy-a77546e23fa571eb7f6509d4e14b89b3
President Joe Biden on Friday for the first time publicly apologized to Ukraine for a monthslong congressional holdup in American military assistance that let Russia make gains on the battlefield.

Biden met in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who appealed for bipartisan U.S. support going forward "like it was during World War II."

A day earlier, the two had attended ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy, where Biden had drawn common cause between the allied forces that helped free Europe from Nazi Germany and today's effort to support Ukraine against Russia's invasion and Zelenskyy had been greeted with a rapt ovation.

"I apologize for those weeks of not knowing what's going to happen in terms of funding," Biden said, referring to the six-month holdup by conservative Republicans in Congress to a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine. Still, the Democratic president insisted the American people were standing by Ukraine for the long haul. "We're still in. Completely. Thoroughly," he said.

The apology — and Zelenskyy's plea for rock-solid support akin to the allied coalition in WWII — served as a reminder that for all of Biden's talk of an unflagging U.S commitment to Ukraine, recalcitrance among congressional Republicans and an isolationist strain in American politics have exposed its fragility. And, although unremarked upon, the specter of Donald Trump's candidacy loomed over the discussion, as the Republican former president and the presumptive nominee has spoken positively of Russian President Vladimir Putin and sparked Ukrainian concerns that he would call for it to cede territory to end the conflict.

Zelenskyy pressed for all Americans to support his country's defense against Russia's invasion, and he thanked lawmakers for eventually coming together to approve the weapons package, which has allowed Ukraine to stem Russian advances in recent weeks.

"It's very important that in this unity, United States of America, all American people stay with Ukraine like it was during World War II," Zelenskyy said. "How the United States helped to save human lives, to save Europe. And we count on your continuing support in standing with us shoulder to shoulder."
...

[paxmao]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

Edit:
Thanks for your loose and disconnected comment. It helps everyone understand that you have nothing to add to this conversation but somehow your brain feels compelled to say something like this. Since the beginning of this war of aggression towards Ukraine, Putin had no fall-back plan. This conflict cannot be solved, even win is "win" in this context.

The European elections have given further rise to the far right in Europe. Maybe Putin is what Europe need to stay united despite.

[BADecker]

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

Thanks for your loose and disconnected comment. It helps everyone understand that you have nothing to add to this conversation but somehow your brain feels compelled to say something like this. Since the beginning of this war of aggression towards Ukraine, Putin had no fall-back plan. This conflict cannot be solved, even win is "win" in this context.

The European elections have given further rise to the far right in Europe. Maybe Putin is what Europe need to stay united despite.

Simply note that Russia sells petroleum products to China through the Russia China pipeline. Even though there are snags in the agreement, we haven't seen China weighing in regarding what they really think about the war. They don't like the Biden attitude, even though they might like doing business with US people and companies in general. China swings mean a lot.

[DaRude]

I do believe that ratio of losses was almost even, but since the failed UA offensive, overwhelming Russian artillery, surprising effects and number of Russian glide bombs, number of Russian drones, and the fact that Ukraine's army is mostly conscripts where majority on Russia's side is contractors I do believe that now the ratio of losses is to Russia's advantage. You can extrapolate the rest, using your own numbers of Russian looses if you wish

Even a 2:1 ratio would yield 1 million Ukrainian soldiers out of action. do you think Ukraine mobilised 1 million soldiers? I don't. Probably more like half of that and the front in manned. See why those numbers are unbelievable?

No i do not, but all that means is that your initial assessment of 500k Russian losses is invalid. Believe both sides acknowledged that most of their losses are not from firearms but from shrapnel. And when one side has overwhelming advantage by thousands/month in almost everything exploding with shrapnel such as artillery shells, glide bombs, long range exploding drones, there just isn't close to enough precision weapons ATACMs/HIMARS/Storm Shadows/Scalp to even make a dent in that. Russia is just pushing one tree line at a time now (i'm sure you've seen those fields littered with shell craters) and with China's backing Russia has proven that they can maintain this, there's really no stopping this. All you can do is keep sending reinforcements to that tree line to slow Russia down, thus lowering age for mobilized conscripts.

Sad part is, after all of the escalations now current US administration cannot back out of this, thus the Irony that Trump is really Ukrainian's only option. After the elections. prior government would claim how Ukraine was totally almost winning before Trump, and Trump will blame Biden for starting a useless war which he ended. No loosers, everyone wins (well, except for all of the lost Ukrainians played as pawns by their government). (Russia wins by reasserting itself as regional power, like we're already seeing in Georgia/Armenia.)

~
Let's be honest, if Ruzzia cannot "win" this year, it is going to get veeery ugly for them. The only strategy is always doubling the bet, and Martingales always end with a zero.
~

Good words, brother. Indeed, as a gambler I can confirm, martingale is a desperate strategy that you are using being not far from losing everything.

There'll be no "wins" for either side this year.
A very good indicator how well Russia is performing is a watching the inverse correlation of the amount nuclear threats spewing out of them.
When things are looking good, the nuclear threats drop.
When things are looking bad, the nuclear threats ramp up.

Last week the threats went into overdrive. Therefore things are very very bad for Russia.

Typically I'd agree, but in this case you're confusing the cause and effect. So in this case, a very good indicator of how well Ukraine is performing is watching inverse correlation to the promises of NATO troops in Ukraine. Ukraine is doing so well on it's own even about to take Crimea/Moscow, think it's time we send NATO troops there  

In other news, to no one's surprise EU is shifting far right.

It has been a sorry sight for Germany's three-party coalition government, but unlike Emmanuel Macron, Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he will not call for an election.
...
Step in the populist far-right and far-left, who promise a quick return to peace and prosperity: "Just negotiate with Putin, and buy Russian gas again," says the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
AfD came second with 15.9% and Scholz's social democratic SPD came third with 13.9%. Coming up top was the conservative CDU party with an impressive 30% of the vote.
"We want to end the war so just stop sending arms to Ukraine and stop migrants coming," says the new populist far-left party BSW led by ex-communist firebrand Sahra Wagenknecht.
...
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has cemented her grip on Italian politics.
She used the European elections to boost her own popularity by putting her name at the top of her party's ballot, and it proved a successful gamble: with 29%, she has increased the vote gained by her party in the 2022 general election.
...
While Geert Wilders - who until recently promised a referendum on Nexit (i.e. Netherlands' exit from the EU) - posted five red love heart emojis on X. "Still the biggest winner with five more seats.”
...
In Hungary, Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party won both the European and municipal elections.
...
Far-right party claims 'new era' in Austria

I'm wondering if that's what the cookie monster Nuland meant when she said Fuck the EU? They should try to pivot and somehow try to blame Putin for this too.



[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]

[BADecker]

But Monsanto and the other two US companies who bought up farmland in Ukraine... they like the war. It means they won't need to plow so much this year.

[paxmao]

I do believe that ratio of losses was almost even, but since the failed UA offensive, overwhelming Russian artillery, surprising effects and number of Russian glide bombs, number of Russian drones, and the fact that Ukraine's army is mostly conscripts where majority on Russia's side is contractors I do believe that now the ratio of losses is to Russia's advantage. You can extrapolate the rest, using your own numbers of Russian looses if you wish

Even a 2:1 ratio would yield 1 million Ukrainian soldiers out of action. do you think Ukraine mobilised 1 million soldiers? I don't. Probably more like half of that and the front in manned. See why those numbers are unbelievable?

No i do not, but all that means is that your initial assessment of 500k Russian losses is invalid.[...]

Is not "my assessment".

Back to something interesting, today Ukraine managed to hit three bases in Crimea, as usual I do not have yet satellite or other sources on how much damage was cause. There is also a claimed hit on a landing ship - particularly appreciated since these allow the movement of troops and equipment from Ruzzia to any beach without having to use ports.

I will be seeking some pictorial or video evidence.

BTW Ruzzia had been used ferries instead of the Kerch bridge, for obvious reasons, but they seem to have gone back to it. You choose what to believe... either they think the bridge is safe or the attacks on the ferries last week has left no other option.

On the economic front, it seems that the last European (Austrian) bank allowing transfers and operation of Ruzzian's oligarch assets in quitting those ops. The US started talking about sanctions so... good bye Ruzzia.

Edit: Apparently a large ship is burning near Konisberg, this is part of the baltic fleet, so it seems someone smoked in the wrong place.

[Branko]

Is not "my assessment".

Back to something interesting, today Ukraine managed to hit three bases in Crimea, as usual I do not have yet satellite or other sources on how much damage was cause. There is also a claimed hit on a landing ship - particularly appreciated since these allow the movement of troops and equipment from Ruzzia to any beach without having to use ports.

I will be seeking some pictorial or video evidence.

BTW Ruzzia had been used ferries instead of the Kerch bridge, for obvious reasons, but they seem to have gone back to it. You choose what to believe... either they think the bridge is safe or the attacks on the ferries last week has left no other option.

On the economic front, it seems that the last European (Austrian) bank allowing transfers and operation of Ruzzian's oligarch assets in quitting those ops. The US started talking about sanctions so... good bye Ruzzia.

Edit: Apparently a large ship is burning near Konisberg, this is part of the baltic fleet, so it seems someone smoked in the wrong place.

Ships burn all the time, that's nothing unusual:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/british-navy-ship-hit-by-unknown-projectile-in-the-gulf-of-aden/ar-BB1nTC26

[paxmao]

Apparently Ruzzian unofficial sources point to more than just on SU35 was damaged yesterday. They say that two were badly damaged while the other got a degree of damaged that may be repairable.

Regarding the strikes in Crimea, there are claims of a S400 and S300. These "infallible air defences" were targeted by "weapons that do not work" and intercepted them by staying there and doing nothing.

[BADecker]

The UK is way too slow. By the time they get anything done, Putin will have launched his Satan II missile(s), and cause a great tsunami that will destroy the UK islands with a gigantic tidal wave... or two - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=satan+2+tsunami++missile&ia=web.

One would think that UK people would be a little more humble.

[paxmao]

The UK is way too slow. By the time they get anything done, Putin will have launched his Satan II missile(s), and cause a great tsunami that will destroy the UK islands with a gigantic tidal wave... or two - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=satan+2+tsunami++missile&ia=web.

One would think that UK people would be a little more humble.

do you think Ruzzia would be attacking Ruzzia and killing the sons of their own elite kleptocrats? Or did you think they study at "Peter the Great " Politechnical.

A while you are confused about Ruzzian weapons systems, and where these are aiming and its intended use - oh my naïve Texan-Chinese friend who has "nothing to fear from Putin" - there seems to be a significant case of people smoking in Moscow in the wrong place.

An SU-34 crashed in Osetia. Many causes are possible, but aircraft usually require good maintenance and are limited in the hours they can fly safely.

BTW, just so you know France and the UK do have a nuclear arsenal. You knew this right?

[Branko]

Apparently Ruzzian unofficial sources point to more than just on SU35 was damaged yesterday. They say that two were badly damaged while the other got a degree of damaged that may be repairable.

Regarding the strikes in Crimea, there are claims of a S400 and S300. These "infallible air defences" were targeted by "weapons that do not work" and intercepted them by staying there and doing nothing.

There are rumors about huge numbers of decoys/false targets that Russia deployed, but both
sides keep shut about it, Russia because they want to continue Ukraine to waste precious weapons,
and Ukraine out of embarrassment and of course for PR effect

do you think Ruzzia would be attacking Ruzzia and killing the sons of their own elite kleptocrats? Or did you think they study at "Peter the Great " Politechnical.

We don't know, you tell us...you're only one claiming Putin is killing Russians around the globe all the time, so why would he
suddenly be hesitant?

[paxmao]

Apparently Ruzzian unofficial sources point to more than just on SU35 was damaged yesterday. They say that two were badly damaged while the other got a degree of damaged that may be repairable.

Regarding the strikes in Crimea, there are claims of a S400 and S300. These "infallible air defences" were targeted by "weapons that do not work" and intercepted them by staying there and doing nothing.

There are rumors about huge numbers of decoys/false targets that Russia deployed, but both
sides keep shut about it, Russia because they want to continue Ukraine to waste precious weapons,
and Ukraine out of embarrassment and of course for PR effect

do you think Ruzzia would be attacking Ruzzia and killing the sons of their own elite kleptocrats? Or did you think they study at "Peter the Great " Politechnical.

We don't know, you tell us...you're only one claiming Putin is killing Russians around the globe all the time, so why would he
suddenly be hesitant?

Just the sons of others. Tell me Branko, where is Putin's offspring (not just the official ones)? Where are the sons of the Kleptocrats studying? Hit: do not bother to look in the front.

The fact is that everyone knows what happens after an strategic nuclear strike. Keep the saber=rattling, is going nowhere.

Edited to add: However this night another air defence system seems to have been taken down in Crimea. I wonder why so many strikes are going to the air defences during this last month or so.

Today there is a video of a drone jamming equipment being hit by ... a Ukrainian drone.

[metamorphosyys]

How do you think it will all end?

[Branko]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

[Dominatordom]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

Therefore, Putin poses a threat to the world with his nuclear weapons.

[paxmao]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

That is why this war has not ended. Ruzzia has all several reasonable options available to keep their pants on and there is not anything in particular that seems like a risk overturning the Moscowian's regime. That is by design - the frog can decide when is too hot.

It would be equally dangerous to allow Ruzzia to invade at will because they got nukes, as I am sure you understand perfectly, but at the same time try to ignore.

Some pictures of what happened in Crimea last nights (mostly Ruzzia Air defence blown by weapons that do not work).





Missiles hitting the anti-missiles. I sense that quality of Ruzzia air defence is going to be questioned worldwide.

[Sender78]

Wise man once said:

""Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring
an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear
age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.""

That is why this war has not ended. Ruzzia has all several reasonable options available to keep their pants on and there is not anything in particular that seems like a risk overturning the Moscowian's regime. That is by design - the frog can decide when is too hot.

It would be equally dangerous to allow Ruzzia to invade at will because they got nukes, as I am sure you understand perfectly, but at the same time try to ignore.

Some pictures of what happened in Crimea last nights (mostly Ruzzia Air defence blown by weapons that do not work).





Missiles hitting the anti-missiles. I sense that quality of Ruzzia air defence is going to be questioned worldwide.

Russia's losses are huge, their military officers are constantly whining and crying about it in their chats