Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[pooya87]

Generally speaking, the repair is really scheduled, it happens every year (the Turkish Stream was also recently stopped for scheduled repairs).

I didn't know that and I may be confusing Germany with another country but I remember the gas was cut off before too (in early March). Eg. the Yamal pipeline.

Canada did not return the Siemens turbine sent for repair due to sanctions.

This reminded me of another example of how the economy of those who impose the sanctions is screwed.
How much money did Siemens AG lose and guess who took over that market with their superior yet cheaper turbines on 27 May?

[be.open]

Generally speaking, the repair is really scheduled, it happens every year (the Turkish Stream was also recently stopped for scheduled repairs).

I didn't know that and I may be confusing Germany with another country but I remember the gas was cut off before too (in early March). Eg. the Yamal pipeline.

The Yamal gas pipeline was turned off by Russia as part of counter-sanctions against Poland for its aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric. Russia's counter-sanctions are very selective and targeted so as not to damage its own economy.

[galambo]

Europe's problem is energy shortage. A significant part of the gas is used to generate electricity at thermal power plants, so the reduction in pipeline gas supplies directly affects the reduction in electricity generation. Of course, there are other factors (problems with nuclear power plants in France, an embargo on Russian pipeline oil, an embargo on Russian coal, recent fire at an LNG plant in Texas, low electricity generation at wind farms and a general fuckup of renewable energy).

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that the 27-nation European Union needs to make emergency plans to prepare for a complete cut-off of Russian gas in the wake of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/eu-chief-warns-danger-complete-cut-off-russian-86286388

There is no deny in the fact that EU will be lose more then Russia in case they go on with Russia gas boycott. While LNG supply from USA to EU has been trippled to avoid inconvenience in winter according to above article. USA is earning through supply of LNG to EU.

[Zlantann]

There is no deny in the fact that EU will be lose more then Russia in case they go on with Russia gas boycott. While LNG supply from USA to EU has been trippled to avoid inconvenience in winter according to above article. USA is earning through supply of LNG to EU.

Russia have planned this invasion for years and their economy has been built to withstand sanctions. But the reality now is that they never expected that the war would last for this long, hence gradually the effect of the cost of the war and sanctions have started hitting the economy negatively. The truth now is that both Russia and Europe are suffering the effect greatly and both of them are heading for a difficult economic downturn if this war is not stopped. This war is a problem to both of them and they must workout ways of restoring peace in Europe. Both China, India and the US are core beneficiaries of this way and they would want this war to continue.

[pooya87]

While LNG supply from USA to EU has been trippled to avoid inconvenience in winter according to above article. USA is earning through supply of LNG to EU.

I'm becoming more skeptical about whether US exports of LNG to EU is going to keep up in the long run or even be able to solve the problem. Domestically they are already complaining about this export and as Bloomberg put it "US manufacturers warn that more sales abroad will mean higher costs at home." I don't think in the current situation where the Petrodollar is slowly dying with more than 60% of the world economy abandoning it and BRICS countries talking about a new reserve currency, etc. US can afford to have any more inflation.
In fact this is why some analysts believe that the explosion in Texas was fake since the gas that was supposed to be shipped to EU was spent domestically decreasing the price in US while increasing it in EU.

P.S. I recently found something funny, apparently Putin has offered Europeans free land in Russia if they wanted to and a survey in England has shown that 80% of the people are more than happy to jump off the sinking ship. It's funny mainly because of the hypocrisy

[boris singer]

The Yamal gas pipeline was turned off by Russia as part of counter-sanctions against Poland for its aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric. Russia's counter-sanctions are very selective and targeted so as not to damage its own economy.

Don't know which one is right or wrong but I read some news related to this saying that it was Poland who ended this cooperation and frankly saying that Gazprom is not a reliable partner according to them.
There is even further news that was said by Anna Moscow who incidentally is the Polish climate minister who gave a statement that the Russian aggression made them believe in becoming independent from Russian gas.

[be.open]

The Yamal gas pipeline was turned off by Russia as part of counter-sanctions against Poland for its aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric. Russia's counter-sanctions are very selective and targeted so as not to damage its own economy.

Don't know which one is right or wrong but I read some news related to this saying that it was Poland who ended this cooperation and frankly saying that Gazprom is not a reliable partner according to them.
There is even further news that was said by Anna Moscow who incidentally is the Polish climate minister who gave a statement that the Russian aggression made them believe in becoming independent from Russian gas.

I don't care what Poland and other European dwarfs like the Baltics believed there, whose value is only in the fact that they have the right to vote in the voting of the European Parliament. Europe has an industrial backbone - Germany, France, northern Italy and maybe Austria - which is dramatically dependent on pipeline gas and raw materials from Russia. And now this industrial backbone is crunching under the onslaught of sanctions that Europe itself has imposed against Russia (under pressure from the United States). I have already said and I will repeat - Europe in this story is a trophy and a victim. I think the United States decided to kill Europe in order to save its economy from the inevitable crisis and get rid of a strong competitor, but Russia, in principle, is not against it, it just has its own interests.

[posi]

The Yamal gas pipeline was turned off by Russia as part of counter-sanctions against Poland for its aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric. Russia's counter-sanctions are very selective and targeted so as not to damage its own economy.

Don't know which one is right or wrong but I read some news related to this saying that it was Poland who ended this cooperation and frankly saying that Gazprom is not a reliable partner according to them.
There is even further news that was said by Anna Moscow who incidentally is the Polish climate minister who gave a statement that the Russian aggression made them believe in becoming independent from Russian gas.

As far as I know, it was Russia that cut off gas supplies to Poland after Poland imposed sanctions on Russian entities including Gazprom and Poland that did not agree to pay for gas in copper rubles.

All are baseless claims after being cut off by Russia, Poland is said to still use Russian gas through pipelines from Germany. European countries cannot completely eliminate Russian gas.

[Sithara007]

As far as I know, it was Russia that cut off gas supplies to Poland after Poland imposed sanctions on Russian entities including Gazprom and Poland that did not agree to pay for gas in copper rubles.

All are baseless claims after being cut off by Russia, Poland is said to still use Russian gas through pipelines from Germany. European countries cannot completely eliminate Russian gas.

That option is not available to them anymore. After the Nord Stream flows were reduced by 60%, Germany doesn't have spare pipeline gas capacity to supply the same to Poland. As far as I know, the reverse flows (Germany to Poland) are no longer working. And the crisis will escalate by 13th July. That is when Nord Stream will be closed completely for scheduled maintenance. As per the schedule, it will reopen by 23rd July, but there are concerns in the EU that it may never happen. Germany and the other EU nations may need to resort to gas rationing, if it happens.

[pooya87]

I think the United States decided to kill Europe in order to save its economy from the inevitable crisis and get rid of a strong competitor, but Russia, in principle, is not against it, it just has its own interests.

Exactly.
Decades ago when Europeans figured out that US had lied and the pieces of paper they kept printing wasn't backed by gold, they dumped USD and its value got halved in 6 months. But US policy makers were quick about replacing gold with oil which is when Petrodollar was created and that let them keep printing that worthless piece of paper even more but "export" the resulting inflation to Europe and elsewhere.

Today a lot of oil and gas rich countries that control a large amount of the world's supply among them (Iran, Russia, Venezuela and to some extent Iraq and Saudi) alongside the biggest consumers like China and India and other BRICS members are dumping USD and replacing it with a new currency.
This means trillions of dollars are already going back to US dumping its value and increasing dollar inflation.

In order for US to survive they have to try and keep Petrodollar alive which is why Europe is ordered to continue using it and not have any good relations with the Eastern bloc like coming to terms with Russia or for example fixing the relations with Iran that could flood the market with at least 2 million barrels of oil per day decreasing its price to below $40 and save EU's economy.
Of course I should mention that it's already too late for EU to change since they've played as US colonies for too long and now they are under Iran's sanctions which is why when the European Union diplomat Mora comes to Iran begging for gas and oil, he receives the middle finger.

The only thing I'd be worried about these days is how long before we start seeing more Brexits (essentially European Union falling apart as more countries leave it) and for Europe to go back to pre WWII era when each of those little countries were at war with each other every day.

[trendcoin]

So far, everything has followed an advantageous path for Russia; The ruble has appreciated against the dollar and Europe's dependence on Russian gas continues... In fact, such a result is not surprising, because Europe's dependence on Russian gas is not a problem that can be solved overnight. And while Russia sells natural gas in rubles, it is inevitable that the ruble will appreciate against the dollar.

Everything we live in resembles a chaotic period when countries tried to weaken each other before a great world war. We use the world's resources like a weapon rather than sharing them efficiently. I hope that we will all adopt rational policies instead of hostile attitudes as soon as possible.

[electronicash]

So far, everything has followed an advantageous path for Russia; The ruble has appreciated against the dollar and Europe's dependence on Russian gas continues... In fact, such a result is not surprising, because Europe's dependence on Russian gas is not a problem that can be solved overnight. And while Russia sells natural gas in rubles, it is inevitable that the ruble will appreciate against the dollar.

Everything we live in resembles a chaotic period when countries tried to weaken each other before a great world war. We use the world's resources like a weapon rather than sharing them efficiently. I hope that we will all adopt rational policies instead of hostile attitudes as soon as possible.

the world now sees we are dependent to gas whichever it may come from. whether these gas are from Saudi or from Russia we need it and the “Go Green” movement will be set aside when it comes to weakening each other. when leaders want other leaders to just submit to them, the going green movement will not matter.

none of the US, EU and Russian leaders find ways to it harmonious to each other to make something good to happen.
i'm already beginning to think they conspire each other the leaders of West to East to make all the people in the world poor.

[galambo]

That option is not available to them anymore. After the Nord Stream flows were reduced by 60%, Germany doesn't have spare pipeline gas capacity to supply the same to Poland. As far as I know, the reverse flows (Germany to Poland) are no longer working. And the crisis will escalate by 13th July. That is when Nord Stream will be closed completely for scheduled maintenance. As per the schedule, it will reopen by 23rd July, but there are concerns in the EU that it may never happen. Germany and the other EU nations may need to resort to gas rationing, if it happens.

The conflict between Ukarine and Russia has gone in background and main issue now becomes EU gas ban. So far this gas ban has not affected Russia but EU themselves. Recently, "Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has ruled out the prospect of a Russian gas ban in the European Union's next package of sanctions". Source

"If you're not able to import gas from Russia, then the country stops, economy stops, we cannot heat the houses, we cannot run the economy. Our question is who can offer a solution?" Szijjarto hungry foreign minister

So now it's very much clear that EU can't survive without Russia gas. Its better to sit and find solution to this conflict rather then fighting and boycotting Russian gas.

[pooya87]

"Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has ruled out the prospect of a Russian gas ban in the European Union's next package of sanctions".
"If you're not able to import gas from Russia, then the country stops, economy stops, we cannot heat the houses, we cannot run the economy."

In other words European Union is going to condemn Russia only in words but in practice they will continue supporting the invasion because their "economy" is too fragile that it would go under if they do otherwise... #hypocrisy

[WatChe]

In other words European Union is going to condemn Russia only in words but in practice they will continue supporting the invasion because their "economy" is too fragile that it would go under if they do otherwise... #hypocrisy

The picture really speaks itself. West whenever finds a weak opponent they just turn it to ashes but when it comes to strong power and have interet (like cheap Russian gas) they just condem it.



Image copied from : https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1545025593519259648?t=KHGKBJMNwdIYg4y1aUJ1yQ&s=09

[Sithara007]

So now it's very much clear that EU can't survive without Russia gas. Its better to sit and find solution to this conflict rather then fighting and boycotting Russian gas.

Already gas is trading close to $1,800 per thousand cubic meters in various European hubs. Russians are angry that the EU has banned their crude oil. Now they may retaliate by completely banning the export of pipeline gas from Russia, which may push prices to record levels. EU may "survive" without Russian gas, but it maybe left badly bruised. Whatever available supply will be diverted to domestic usage, while industrial units may be shut down. The damage to manufacturing units will be permanent, and they will never recover.

[boris singer]

Don't know which one is right or wrong but I read some news related to this saying that it was Poland who ended this cooperation and frankly saying that Gazprom is not a reliable partner according to them.
There is even further news that was said by Anna Moscow who incidentally is the Polish climate minister who gave a statement that the Russian aggression made them believe in becoming independent from Russian gas.

I don't care what Poland and other European dwarfs like the Baltics believed there, whose value is only in the fact that they have the right to vote in the voting of the European Parliament. Europe has an industrial backbone - Germany, France, northern Italy and maybe Austria - which is dramatically dependent on pipeline gas and raw materials from Russia. And now this industrial backbone is crunching under the onslaught of sanctions that Europe itself has imposed against Russia (under pressure from the United States). I have already said and I will repeat - Europe in this story is a trophy and a victim. I think the United States decided to kill Europe in order to save its economy from the inevitable crisis and get rid of a strong competitor, but Russia, in principle, is not against it, it just has its own interests.

But in this case I actually agree with what you said, regardless of what it is, it is quite clear that America is indeed one of the ones who take advantage of a crisis like this, but they seek security and give dominance to other countries to advance so that it is indeed the countries in Europe. make something divisive.
Even though in this case they are said to be intermediaries or whatever when something unexpected happens, it is clear that America has little impact on the losses and gains that will be obtained if the goal can be realized this will provide tremendous benefits for them.

[DrBeer]

In other words European Union is going to condemn Russia only in words but in practice they will continue supporting the invasion because their "economy" is too fragile that it would go under if they do otherwise... #hypocrisy

The picture really speaks itself. West whenever finds a weak opponent they just turn it to ashes but when it comes to strong power and have interet (like cheap Russian gas) they just condem it.

Image copied from : https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1545025593519259648?t=KHGKBJMNwdIYg4y1aUJ1yQ&s=09

In Ichkeria alone, Russia destroyed about 400,000 civilians.
Thousands of Russians were destroyed by the terrorist attacks of the FSB - blown up houses, subways, etc.
Tens of hundreds of thousands of civilians were killed in Moldova, Georgia, Karabakh, Ukraine, ... Millions of civilians from the listed countries lost everything and were forced to become wanderers ... And how many the Russian Federation / USSR destroyed - that's hundreds of millions!
But NATO conducted peacekeeping operations, did not shoot at civilians, helped stop internal conflicts... Or is this a different case? What do you say, lover of Russian propaganda?

[Cryptock]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

Interesting point mentioned. This too is not to be ignored. These powerful countries are only there to suppress the weak territories.
I wish no more happens - we already are not yet out of the COVID and Russia war. On the other hand USA is also prepare counter attacks on Afghanistan. What is going on around the world is unacceptable.

[Sithara007]

In Ichkeria alone, Russia destroyed about 400,000 civilians.
~~~~

According to neutral observers, around 100,000 people died during the two Chechen wars. And out of all the casualties, around 70% were ethnic Russians and another 10% were other white ethnic groups such as Ukrainians and Germans. Most of the deaths occurred in Grozny, which was a Slavic majority city at that time, and the smaller Chechen population migrated to the homes of their relatives in the hills before the city was levelled and destroyed. Slavs were 30% of the population of Chechenya before the war, and now they are 2%. Still want to blame Russia?