Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[DrBeer]

Although Russia did plan to attack Ukraine for many years, it cannot be said that it was well prepared for the introduction of international sanctions against it. First of all, this can be seen from the fact that almost half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves, which is about 300 billion dollars, ended up in foreign banks and any operations on them were immediately suspended. Also, Russia was not ready to live in international isolation: it still depends on the supply of electronics and many parts in the industry. Machine-building, the aircraft industry and many other industries are suffering especially now.
The only way to stop this war is to stop the aggression against Ukraine and get out of its territory. Otherwise, no matter how much they sit down at the negotiating table, there will be no result. In Ukraine, they are determined to destroy all invaders and do not agree to cede even a part of their territory to the aggressor.

lol.. it is not all black and white as it sounds. If Russia is dependent on electronic and high-tech parts from the West, then the latter also benefited from the sale revenues. Russians are not going to sit idle. Either they may manufacture these goods within Russia, or they will source them from countries such as China and India. Do you really believe that no high-tech products are available in countries such as North Korea and Iran, which are under sanctions for many years? And forget about Russia ceding any of the territory it captured. Just not possible.

You surprise me sometimes
1. China - yes, there is high-tech production. But China's economy is tied to the Western market. And after the violation of sanctions, the Chinese economy, which is now in the role of a huge bubble, will simply lose the US and EU markets, and burst instantly and loudly. Russia for China is no friend or partner, Russia is a primitive country of the 3rd world, China's raw material appendage!
2. High technologies and India. No offense, but it's not even funny A country that buys Western high-tech weapons, has abandoned low-quality Russian weapons, and is not able to produce such weapons itself, will it be able to help backward Russia Are you seriously ? Maybe India produces industrial equipment that is bought all over the world and it competes with, for example, German / Japanese / USA / Ok, I admit that I missed something - give an example?

[Eden Loomis]

In my opinion, it creates a big problem for EU. If Russia cannot sell gas for EU, they will earn less money but they still sell it, for example, Asia nations. In the side of EU, they are meeting the seriously scarcity of gas and food. They choose to decrease the gas in the WINTER.

[Renampun]

In my opinion, it creates a big problem for EU. If Russia cannot sell gas for EU, they will earn less money but they still sell it, for example, Asia nations. In the side of EU, they are meeting the seriously scarcity of gas and food. They choose to decrease the gas in the WINTER.

this news is valid...

In the second quarter of 2020, Russia's current account was recorded at US$ 70.1 billion. This is higher than the previous quarter's record of US$ 68.38 billion.

Russia's central bank (Central Bank of Russia / CBR) itself at the beginning of last month reported that in the January-July 2022 period, the current account recorded a surplus of US $ 166 billion or around Rp. 2,473 trillion (exchange rate of Rp. 14,900/US$). According to CBR, this estimate is more than three times the same period in 2021 at US$ 50 billion.

The large current account surplus was caused by declining imports while exports soared due to high energy commodity prices. In addition to crude oil, there is natural gas and coal which are insanely expensive.

Asia is the target of sales of crude oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia, while EU countries continue to buy oil and natural gas from Asian countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

From the scenario that is still happening until now, the beneficiaries of this war are Russia and Asian countries which are buyers of natural commodities from Russia, while the ones who lose are EU countries that impose sanctions.

Honestly, this is really pathetic, as if this war is happening for a profit.

[Sithara007]

Asia is the target of sales of crude oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia, while EU countries continue to buy oil and natural gas from Asian countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

From the scenario that is still happening until now, the beneficiaries of this war are Russia and Asian countries which are buyers of natural commodities from Russia, while the ones who lose are EU countries that impose sanctions.

Honestly, this is really pathetic, as if this war is happening for a profit.

How can you say that Asians are benefitting out of this? We are getting royally screwed here in India. Crude oil was going at $40 per barrel in 2020. Now we are purchasing it from Russia at around $90 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and UAE are selling their crude to Asian nations at huge premiums (up to $10 per barrel above the benchmark prices). Common people are suffering here. In Europe they can afford the higher energy and fuel costs. Here in India there are a lot of people who can't afford these utility bills. Feeling quite depressed now.

[pooya87]

In Europe they can afford the higher energy and fuel costs.

I'm not so sure about that. The problem isn't that energy cost is rising in Europe, the main problem is that their economy is shrinking which means people no longer make the same amount of money as before and many of they are and will be losing their jobs.
They are already reporting "cost of living" crisis and some countries like UK some sources report that 20% of people can no longer afford food let alone pay their bills.

[Dear_ex69]

The European Union agreed to a sixth package of sanctions against Russia that will include a near-total ban on Russian oil imports to the bloc.
European also want to stop war machine and cut the financing of Russia’s military capacity. By the Russian Gas ban it will a create big problem. Because 75 percent of Russian gas imports into the European Union. For this European Union maybe faced oil and gas shortage and Russian maybe have some or less economical problem

[be.open]

Asia is the target of sales of crude oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia, while EU countries continue to buy oil and natural gas from Asian countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

From the scenario that is still happening until now, the beneficiaries of this war are Russia and Asian countries which are buyers of natural commodities from Russia, while the ones who lose are EU countries that impose sanctions.

Honestly, this is really pathetic, as if this war is happening for a profit.

How can you say that Asians are benefitting out of this? We are getting royally screwed here in India. Crude oil was going at $40 per barrel in 2020. Now we are purchasing it from Russia at around $90 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and UAE are selling their crude to Asian nations at huge premiums (up to $10 per barrel above the benchmark prices). Common people are suffering here. In Europe they can afford the higher energy and fuel costs. Here in India there are a lot of people who can't afford these utility bills. Feeling quite depressed now.

Strangely, as recently as today I read that India made an impressive breakthrough and GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 was 13.5%, largely due to oil purchases from Russia at a good discount. From the outside, it looks like India is one of the main beneficiaries of Western sanctions against Russia, although you, of course, know better on the spot.

[Republikcoin.com]

In my opinion, it creates a big problem for EU. If Russia cannot sell gas for EU, they will earn less money but they still sell it, for example, Asia nations. In the side of EU, they are meeting the seriously scarcity of gas and food. They choose to decrease the gas in the WINTER.

In what way did the EU choose to reduce gas in winter? because gas has become a staple now even though it can still be tricked not to use it, but some people are also lazy if they have to replace gas with other materials for their every need. Basically all countries need gas and if the EU no longer accepts gas sales from the Russian side, then the Russian side can still market it to other continents besides Europe. Because gas will not be a waste as long as everyone still really needs it in everyday life.

[Sithara007]

Strangely, as recently as today I read that India made an impressive breakthrough and GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 was 13.5%, largely due to oil purchases from Russia at a good discount. From the outside, it looks like India is one of the main beneficiaries of Western sanctions against Russia, although you, of course, know better on the spot.

There is no doubt that India is benefitting to a certain degree as a result of imports from Russia. Private refineries such as Reliance and Nayara are making huge profits by importing Russian crude and then converting them to refined products. A part of these commodities are exported to other countries. The government noticed this and introduced a windfall tax. So both the private players and government are benefitting. The question here is whether these gains are enough to offset the losses from rising fuel prices or not.

[pooya87]

The question here is whether these gains are enough to offset the losses from rising fuel prices or not.

In my opinion it all comes down to how India (or any other country for that matter) takes advantage of the situation. You see when people talk about the energy crisis in EU they usually focus on regular people and whether they are going to freeze whereas the reality is that the biggest impact is on the industries not home users.

Take Germany's automotive industry. It suffered the first and the most in early days and continued shrinking and shutting down. Such things creates a void in global markets that others could easily fill to strengthen their own economy.
For example China has been taking full advantage by buying all that gas that used to go to EU in their own manufacturers to fill the global market with their products at cheaper prices. This creates more jobs in China and strengthens their economy more, hence reducing the effects of any fuel price rise.

[coupable]

In my opinion, it creates a big problem for EU. If Russia cannot sell gas for EU, they will earn less money but they still sell it, for example, Asia nations. In the side of EU, they are meeting the seriously scarcity of gas and food. They choose to decrease the gas in the WINTER.

In what way did the EU choose to reduce gas in winter? because gas has become a staple now even though it can still be tricked not to use it, but some people are also lazy if they have to replace gas with other materials for their every need. Basically all countries need gas and if the EU no longer accepts gas sales from the Russian side, then the Russian side can still market it to other continents besides Europe. Because gas will not be a waste as long as everyone still really needs it in everyday life.

Even with the decrease in gas supplies or the interruption carried out by Russia under the pretext of maintenance work, Europe can survive the crisis during the winter with the help of the austerity measures that it has taken. But if the Russian supply stops completely, this will undoubtedly create a crisis. Yesterday, the G7 summit demanded the formation of a committee to determine the price of Russian gas, which Russia absolutely rejected, threatening to cut off gas supplies permanently if this happened. If Russia implements its threats, it will certainly cause a global crisis, including the insane rise in the price of gas from other producers due to the increased demand .

[DrBeer]

In my opinion, it creates a big problem for EU. If Russia cannot sell gas for EU, they will earn less money but they still sell it, for example, Asia nations. In the side of EU, they are meeting the seriously scarcity of gas and food. They choose to decrease the gas in the WINTER.

In what way did the EU choose to reduce gas in winter? because gas has become a staple now even though it can still be tricked not to use it, but some people are also lazy if they have to replace gas with other materials for their every need. Basically all countries need gas and if the EU no longer accepts gas sales from the Russian side, then the Russian side can still market it to other continents besides Europe. Because gas will not be a waste as long as everyone still really needs it in everyday life.

Even with the decrease in gas supplies or the interruption carried out by Russia under the pretext of maintenance work, Europe can survive the crisis during the winter with the help of the austerity measures that it has taken. But if the Russian supply stops completely, this will undoubtedly create a crisis. Yesterday, the G7 summit demanded the formation of a committee to determine the price of Russian gas, which Russia absolutely rejected, threatening to cut off gas supplies permanently if this happened. If Russia implements its threats, it will certainly cause a global crisis, including the insane rise in the price of gas from other producers due to the increased demand .

What are you right about - the fact that the state is a terrorist, military and economic, Russia can still reduce the gas supply to the EU, and possibly even stop it completely! That I completely agree with you. They have such a vile and vile nature. Well, a terrorist state, what do you expect from them?
As for the rest, I disagree with you. And I will even give quite verifiable arguments. To begin with, the tantrums on the topic "without Russian gas, we will all freeze and the industry will die" are distributed exclusively by the propaganda of Russia itself. The problem is that without the sale of such volumes of gas to the EU, the Russian economy will collapse even without sanctions!
Main and main. ONLY PART OF European countries really depend on Russian gas. This is very easy to check. I must say right away - in the circle of those "sitten on the Kremlin's gas needle" - Germany, France, Italy, Hungary. In other countries, there is no noticeable dependence, and Russian gas, in the total volume of purchased or consumed gas, is no more than 15%, which is easily leveled by LNG supplies from the United States, or by gas purchases, for example, from Norway, which now already sells more gas to the EU than the international country terrorist, russia. The largest part of Russian gas, and the gas that goes to industry, is Germany. There, part of the Russian gas from the total volume of consumption is about ... 40%. No 75% or 90% to make it really an unsolvable problem. 40%, and the rest have less! You can easily find all this data in open official sources! And do not listen to those propaganda from the terrorist country!

[be.open]

Main and main. ONLY PART OF European countries really depend on Russian gas. This is very easy to check. I must say right away - in the circle of those "sitten on the Kremlin's gas needle" - Germany, France, Italy, Hungary. In other countries, there is no noticeable dependence, and Russian gas, in the total volume of purchased or consumed gas, is no more than 15%, which is easily leveled by LNG supplies from the United States, or by gas purchases, for example, from Norway, which now already sells more gas to the EU than the international country terrorist, russia. The largest part of Russian gas, and the gas that goes to industry, is Germany. There, part of the Russian gas from the total volume of consumption is about ... 40%. No 75% or 90% to make it really an unsolvable problem. 40%, and the rest have less! You can easily find all this data in open official sources! And do not listen to those propaganda from the terrorist country!

Only a part of the EU countries is significantly dependent on energy supplies from Russia, you are right. And this is the part of the European Union with a developed industry that feeds other freeloaders like the Baltics, Greece and Poland.

[pooya87]

If Russia implements its threats, it will certainly cause a global crisis, including the insane rise in the price of gas from other producers due to the increased demand .

It would be a European Crisis not a global one, worse case scenario is that the rest of the world would feel some pressure and some may even start economic expansion with negative inflation rate. It may not even be the whole Europe, for example countries like Germany, Finland and Sweden are felling the crisis a lot more than some others in the western Europe.

It is also no longer 1940s when the Europeans can expand their own crisis to the rest of the world and call it World War.

P.S. The attempts to take Kherson back hasn't worked so far and that is the last effort by NATO to regain some strategic geography in this proxy war with Russia before the temperature drops. If they fail, the severity of the crisis in West becomes worse, specially in the ongoing global food war.

[Die_empty]

Picture

EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni has assured European Nations   that the bloc is well prepared in the event of a total halt in Russian gas deliveries.

His assurance is borne from the bloc's storage capacity and energy-saving measures. But he also encouraged Moscow to respect trade agreements.

[coupable]

If Russia implements its threats, it will certainly cause a global crisis, including the insane rise in the price of gas from other producers due to the increased demand .

It would be a European Crisis not a global one, worse case scenario is that the rest of the world would feel some pressure and some may even start economic expansion with negative inflation rate. It may not even be the whole Europe, for example countries like Germany, Finland and Sweden are felling the crisis a lot more than some others in the western Europe.

Increased demand for gas will raise its price worldwide. If Russia stops supplying Europe with gas, it will not find a substitute for the European market so that the price remains at reasonable levels.
The media presents that Europe can compensate for the shortfall resulting from the suspension of supplies from the Nord Stream 1 line, but no one knows for how long. I'm sure it will be a very cold winter in Europe this year.

[cryptomaxsun]

russia is not a monopoly in the supply of oil and gas. And if it is blackmailing Europe, then it's time for Europe to abandon russian supplies and find other, more reliable suppliers. Once blackmail has begun, it will not stop and will continue to grow...
Another thing is that in Europe there are corrupt politicians who are on the payroll of russia and do not want to look for other suppliers.

[Wakate]

In my opinion, it creates a big problem for EU. If Russia cannot sell gas for EU, they will earn less money but they still sell it, for example, Asia nations. In the side of EU, they are meeting the seriously scarcity of gas and food. They choose to decrease the gas in the WINTER.

In what way did the EU choose to reduce gas in winter? because gas has become a staple now even though it can still be tricked not to use it, but some people are also lazy if they have to replace gas with other materials for their every need. Basically all countries need gas and if the EU no longer accepts gas sales from the Russian side, then the Russian side can still market it to other continents besides Europe. Because gas will not be a waste as long as everyone still really needs it in everyday life.

Gas is a commodity and the more it takes without demand the more it could loses it value if demand keeps reducing. Russia is going to be affected big time which is one of the thing NATO had been waiting for so that Russia will not have the fund to spend on military equipment to keep attacking Ukraine which is part of NATO countries.

If you think Russia will have other options to market it gas supply then I think you are wrong because what direction do you think Russia will face now when it biggest market is in Europe. Russia can not turn to Africa because Africa does not mostly depend on gas and there are many Africa countries that has there own natural gases like countries like South Africa, Nigeria etc that has market too all around the world.

[DrBeer]

It's a loose of both. Russia has never been more weaker, euro has never been more weaker. They both need each other and they both are fighting.. I don't know how long, maybe there are some wise leaders who can see the bigger picture come up with some solutions

Russia is conquering more and more territory and as long as they are winning the war, they won't care. At this point, advances are being reported in northern part of Kharkov and Siversk-Bakhmut-Soledar area in Donbass. Putin believes that the war will be beneficial for Russia in the long term. He maybe planning to annex Russian speaking oblasts of Ukraine (Donbass, Kharkov, Zaporizhia, Kerson, Odessa.etc) and thereby boost the population.

Europe on the other hand is the biggest loser from this war. Industrial units are getting closed down and Euro has lost almost 20% of its value against the USD during the last 12 months. The relation between Russia and Europe (Germany in particular) was a mutually beneficial one. Destruction of this relationship will negatively impact both the sides.

I have a feeling that you will climb out with Russia Today
Really, don’t be offended, since you are voicing absolutely unrealistic data, while apparently you yourself firmly believe in this nonsense of rashists ... And this is already a problem more of a medical than a worldview
Let's do it this way - you call the increase "more and more occupied territories", and I will show you a real map, with changes in the front lines in Ukraine, from July to almost today, and you show on this map those very "new all more and more occupied territories", we will check with reality and give REASONS and ARGUMENTS that can be verified? Goes? Or how ? I'm sure the only argument will be a reference to the totally false Russian state media, well, or your favorite "I heard" argument

Threat Riddle - guess what happened at the front today? Let's see if you are far removed from reality

[DrBeer]

And about the "problems of Europe". No matter how the Kremlin propagandists and their corrupt media (including international ones) overstrained and fought in hysterics, the situation looks somewhat different than they try to imagine.
Let's look at the statistics on how much the gas storages of the EU countries are filled, as of September 1, 2022. Data from open sources:
- The average filling level of EU gas storage facilities has reached 80%. This was stated by the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
- European countries managed to fill their underground storage facilities (UGS) with gas by the end of summer to the target 80% by the upcoming heating season, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).
Gas reserves in European storage facilities, as of August 29, 2022, rose to 80.17%, which is already 0.6 percentage points higher than the average for this date over the past five years. Now UGS facilities contain about 86.1 billion cubic meters. m of gas. In 2021, the maximum filling of storage facilities was observed on October 21 - just over 83 billion cubic meters. m (77.28%).
Previously, the EU countries pledged to fill UGS facilities by at least 80% by the winter of 2022-2023 and by 90% by all subsequent winter periods. The German government also obliged all operators to bring the level of gas reserves in the country's storage facilities to an even higher level: by October 1 - up to 85%, by November 1 - up to 95%.

I will not even provide links to primary sources - this information is published by all of Europe, and even some media outlets of the country of the world-terrorist