Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[DrBeer]

What the hell are you talking about again? Empty, unsubstantiated false accusations. The direct beneficiaries of the terrorist attack on Nord Stream are the United States and Ukraine. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence for the involvement of the United States in this terrorist attack. For example, here is a US Air Force helicopter Sikorsky MH-60R Strike Hawk for nine hours - from 19:30 Moscow time on Sunday, September 25, to 04:30 Moscow time on Monday, September 26 - circled over the Baltic Sea about 250 kilometers from the Danish island Bornholm, near which gas leaks were recorded.

There is no doubt regarding the beneficiaries. If the transport of Russian pipeline gas is disrupted, it will directly benefit the United States. It is not just the direct competition for the market, but the increase in prices due to lack of supply will also benefit the American LNG exporters. And any financial penalty on Russia for not keeping contract obligation would be much lower than the cost resulting from the damage to the pipelines (approx. $25 billion). And if infact Russia was responsible, then all the European countries would have given the proof by now.

I don't know if it was the US that caused the Nord Stream 1 pipeline explosion, but currently the US is the most profitable country in this respect, Russia and the EU have no interest here. The US is being accused by EU countries of selling LNG at exorbitant prices to them and the EU has no better choice at the moment. The explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline is considered an end to Europe's gas dependence on Russia especially Germany and now they no longer have to make concessions to Russia and will launch the most severe sanctions. It is clear that there is a person pulling the strings behind everything, the person who benefits the most is none other than the American guy. One arrow hits 2 targets.

Let's compare the benefits. For example, the benefit of the United States, and the benefit of Russia, from the explosion of Nord Stream?
I will write my arguments, and you can add

1. USA - in a market with a falling gas price, well, probably to get some additional benefit. Although the US gas has been sold and is being sold, this will not bring SIGNIFICANT high profits.
Can you add something else?

2.Russia:
- tried to "softly" terrorize the EU by cutting off gas. Already many times. Inventing all sorts of crazy explanations. To which the EU finally said: we will not buy gas from you in the future, you are terrorists. And for violation of the terms of the contract - you, the country of a terrorist, will pay us huge penalties.

For Russia, 2 real huge benefits:
- Officially, citing force majeure, stop gas supplies to the EU, continuing its economic terror against the "recalcitrant EU"
- Officially get a reason not to pay penalties, due to the same force majeure.

Now the question is - which of the set of benefits is more profitable?

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[DrBeer]

The agency believes that Russia's war against Ukraine means the end of the "golden gas age" in the world. ~ Russia is losing markets.

But as far as the evidence goes Russia didn't really lose markets, they just replaced one market for another. In other words this is the end of the golden gas age for Europe not for the world. The super cheap gas that was going to EU is now going elsewhere like to China and a couple of other countries that are compete economically with EU and now have a bigger edge.

So that your statements are not unfounded: please provide information:
1. What is the scheme of gas supplies to other countries from the network focused on gas supplies to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2? Yes, yes, just tell us how these gas systems can transfer gas from a system, for example, Nord Stream 1, for example, to Power of Siberia? It will be very interesting to hear
2. What is the "ultra-low price of Russian gas" for China? Specific price or price range.
3. List of countries that will now buy gas from Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 at an ultra-low price?

Let's discuss your, I will say softly "fantastic assumption". You yourself even understand why I said that, right?

[Sithara007]

We have discussed about the import of Russian gas to European Union for so long, but we ignored one important aspect. The Russian LNG cargos to EU. According to latest information, the import of Russian LNG to Europe has increased by quite a bit, and this is helping the EU to balance their gas requirements.

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/eu-imports-russian-lng-sore-record-highs-supply-mostly-arctic

And Russia is benefitting as well:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-made-99-billion-net-profits-third-quarter-2022-10-27/
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/spot-sales-of-lng-bring-russias-novatek-more-1585598.html

The Yamal LNG plant is operating at a capacity of 21 billion cubic meters, above its nameplate capacity of 16.6 billion cubic meters per year. The initial 16.6 billion cu.m needs to be sold as per long term contracts (at much lower prices), but the remaining 4.4 billion cu.m is being sold at spot prices. Without this supply of 23 billion cubic meters (21 billion from Yamal LNG and 2 billion from Portovaya LNG), Europe will be facing a disaster.

[DrBeer]

Europe is currently said to have a surplus of gas this winter, but I would like to ask where they will get their gas next year. Or they buy LNG at 3 or 5 times the price forever, look at the value of the Euro, maybe they are paying more than you think. Russia is building a gas pipeline through Asia, China is a consuming market no less than Europe.

You can yourself, very easy to find out. Hints:
1. Today, the EU, instead of the planned 5-7 YEARS, has replaced 75% of gas supplies with alternative suppliers with long-term contracts. This means that the EU is provided with gas for the next decades. At the same time, gas consumption will now be reduced annually and replaced by other energy sources. This is already an irreversible process.
2. The price of gas is falling, and at the moment it is not the lowest price yet. You can view price statistics in open sources.
3. China will buy gas. But here is a nuance. The price will be as ordered by China. The explanation is very simple - Russia does not have a full-fledged gas transportation system, including significant storage facilities. Which means the gas has to go somewhere. Or just burn - pure 100% loss. Or sell to China for at least 1 cent (if China so orders Russia as its raw material appendage). Or freeze prey. But even here it will not work - Russia will not be able to unfreeze the wells, since Russia is a technologically backward country, and almost 90% of gas production technologies and equipment are Western, and now their delivery to Russia is prohibited.

[Smartprofit]

Of course, Russia has done irreparable harm to its economy. 

Even in Soviet times, trunk pipelines were exclusively a source of wealth for the Soviet people, and not a weapon.  A complete refusal of European countries from Russian gas is possible if the construction of nuclear power plants in European countries is resumed and the existing ones are reactivated. 

In the next 2 years, the dependence of European countries on Russian gas is likely to continue. 

Russian gas will be sold to the European market under Turkish, Chinese and Indian brands.

[pooya87]

Let's compare the benefits. For example, the benefit of the United States, and the benefit of Russia, from the explosion of Nord Stream?

When one of the underwater explosive drones that belonged to NATO which failed to explode was already found near the pipeline, it is pointless to argue who benefited from the explosion since we know who did it already!

[jrrsparkles]

The price of gas in Europe over the past month has decreased by 8 times against the backdrop of low demand and a warm autumn.
Europe has almost 100% filled its underground storage facilities with gas, and because of the warm weather, the demand for "blue fuel" is not increasing yet. Therefore, LNG tankers lined up around European ports, which have nowhere to unload gas. Of course, sooner or later the demand for gas will grow anyway. And then traders who cannot sell fuel now will do it in a few weeks and at a much higher price.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko suggested that European partners store gas in Ukrainian gas storage facilities, referring to the fact that Ukraine has a system of underground gas storage facilities, which is the most powerful in Europe and the third in the world - with a total volume of more than 30 billion cubic meters. m. About half is used for Ukraine's own needs. Thus, Ukraine is ready to offer free capacities for gas storage to foreign customers - up to 15 billion cubic meters. m.
Based on this, the countries of Europe and Ukraine will be able to get through this winter, although this period will not be easy for them. At the same time, for Russia, the loss of a gas market in Europe would be catastrophic.

Europe is currently said to have a surplus of gas this winter, but I would like to ask where they will get their gas next year. Or they buy LNG at 3 or 5 times the price forever, look at the value of the Euro, maybe they are paying more than you think. Russia is building a gas pipeline through Asia, China is a consuming market no less than Europe.

Are you saying it for real? Then why the new leader just resigned in just 44 days and now new one elected and don't know how long he can last long because the reality is bitter than your statement, the economy is crashing and there is gas and fuel shortage for sure which made more people to not to go to the job which seems more expensive for travelling than their salary.

[DrBeer]

Of course, Russia has done irreparable harm to its economy.  

Even in Soviet times, trunk pipelines were exclusively a source of wealth for the Soviet people, and not a weapon.  A complete refusal of European countries from Russian gas is possible if the construction of nuclear power plants in European countries is resumed and the existing ones are reactivated.  

In the next 2 years, the dependence of European countries on Russian gas is likely to continue.  

Russian gas will be sold to the European market under Turkish, Chinese and Indian brands.

I'll correct your comments a bit:
1. "wealth for Soviet people" - are you serious? I've lived in the USSR, and in a family with a good income, by the standards of the USSR. But this is more an exception than any system. "The wealth of the Soviet people" is the best example of an oxymoron
2. About the insignificant and short-term dependence on gas from the country of the terrorist - I agree, but I don’t think that it will be more than 2023.
3. No, the gas of the country of the terrorist will not be sold under the Turkish brand. Turkey has already been warned that it will fall under sanctions if it sells Russian gas, helping the country to a global terrorist.
4. China is a possible way to supply Russian gas to the world market. Here I agree. But there are nuances
China will buy gas from its raw material appendage at whatever price China wants. And most likely it will be either at the level or even below the cost for Russia. Why ? Because Russia needs to put the produced gas somewhere. I have already written many times - Russia is a technologically backward country, even in its "strategic" directions. They cannot store large volumes of gas - they don't have storage facilities. They cannot temporarily freeze gas production - they do not have the technology to unfreeze it later. Therefore, they will be forced to either simply burn it, or sell it for a penny to someone who agrees to buy this gas. And this means that Russia will not get a profit, but only a loss, the market will receive an additional amount of gas, China will strengthen the position of the bipolar world with the United States.

[DrBeer]

Let's compare the benefits. For example, the benefit of the United States, and the benefit of Russia, from the explosion of Nord Stream?

When one of the underwater explosive drones that belonged to NATO which failed to explode was already found near the pipeline, it is pointless to argue who benefited from the explosion since we know who did it already!

pooya87 - you made my day! It is great !!!! Expected somewhere by 100000000% percent, and maybe a little more

I'll tell you another terrible secret. Nebenzya, the representative of Russia to the UN shared Just don’t laugh right away, but rather sit on the sofa and take a glass of cold water ... No, a carafe is better

So. Read to everyone to understand the mental state at the top of Russia

Nebenzya at the UN said that Ukraine took out "combat mosquitoes" in the Kherson region
Russia in the UN continues to feed the members of the organization with nonsense and issued a new batch of absurd statements. This time, at the meeting of the Security Council, those present were forced to listen to fables that fighting mosquitoes are allegedly grown in "biological laboratories" in Ukraine.

Russian propaganda media published a recording of a speech by Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya. Over the past three days, the Russian Federation has been gathering the Security Council of the organization for the third time, after preliminary statements about the Ukrainian "dirty bomb", this time Nebenzya spoke about insects allegedly used to infect the Russian military with dangerous diseases.
Nebenzya continued to talk about "Ukrainian biolaboratories", where experiments are allegedly conducted for military purposes. According to him, documents on the preparation of US biological weapons were allegedly found in these "biological laboratories." The Russian diplomat spoke about "dangerous birds and bats" and "combat mosquitoes."

https://news.obozrevatel.com/russia/nebenzya-v-oon-zayavil-chto-ukraina-vyivodila-v-hersonskoj-oblasti-boevyie-komaryi-v-seti-otreagirovali-video.htm

PS True, AS ALWAYS, they did not provide evidence
 

[Argoo]

the devastating effect of Putin's assault on Ukraine has already been felt across the globe. But seems like putin is happy with his decision and he has no remorse over what has been going on around the globe.

Putin is just playing to the last as a bad clown on stage, still hoping for some kind of miracle and still trying to persuade Ukraine to negotiate on his own terms. But Russia's military defeat in Ukraine is only a matter of time.
 Throughout November, Ukraine is likely to defeat a large grouping of Russian troops in the Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnieper and liberate the only regional center - Kherson, which was occupied in the early days of the Russian invasion with virtually no fight. This will be a significant defeat for Russia and, above all, for Putin, after which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to approach the Crimean peninsula to liberate it.

The fact that Europe will freeze without Russian gas is Putin's next horror story. Closer to spring it will be obvious.

[DrBeer]

Russian propaganda media published a recording of a speech by Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya. Over the past three days, the Russian Federation has been gathering the Security Council of the organization for the third time, after preliminary statements about the Ukrainian "dirty bomb", this time Nebenzya spoke about insects allegedly used to infect the Russian military with dangerous diseases.
Nebenzya continued to talk about "Ukrainian biolaboratories", where experiments are allegedly conducted for military purposes. According to him, documents on the preparation of US biological weapons were allegedly found in these "biological laboratories." The Russian diplomat spoke about "dangerous birds and bats" and "combat mosquitoes."

https://news.obozrevatel.com/russia/nebenzya-v-oon-zayavil-chto-ukraina-vyivodila-v-hersonskoj-oblasti-boevyie-komaryi-v-seti-otreagirovali-video.htm

PS True, AS ALWAYS, they did not provide evidence
 

the devastating effect of Putin's assault on Ukraine has already been felt across the globe. But seems like putin is happy with his decision and he has no remorse over what has been going on around the globe.

Did you expect a sadist, Nazi, coward and vile terrorist to suffer pangs of conscience? What he is doing now is his only option to TRY to survive - this is total terrorism. Military terrorism, with the massacre of civilians, unarmed residents of Ukraine. Military terrorism to destroy the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. Economic terrorism against the West by violating the terms of contracts for the supply of gas and oil.
But what we are seeing now is AGONY. The agony of the Nazi, brown regime of Russia. The agony of Russia as a state. I am sure that in the near future we will all witness the collapse of Russia into many independent, self-sufficient countries. The thing is that many consider Russia to be a "great country", and this is a consequence of total propaganda both in Russia and abroad. But actually russia is a colossus... a shitty colossus with shitty legs

[pooya87]

They layoffs are starting and surprisingly at such large numbers. Two of the giants are laying off thousands of workers. 10,000 employees to be fired by Amazon and 13,000 to be fired by Meta which are historically the largest lay offs in these companies history.
Apart from the tech giants such as Twitter, Microsoft, etc. an additional 20k fired across 70 companies in November alone, there are a lot of other smaller companies that are also firing their employees as the economical problems grow.

[DrBeer]

The explosions that caused significant damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline near the Danish island of Bornholm in late September were the result of "gross sabotage," the Swedish prosecutor's office confirmed.
“The analyzes currently carried out show traces of explosives on several foreign objects found,” prosecutor Mats Jungqvist, who is in charge of the ongoing preliminary investigation into the explosions, said on Friday.
There is no information about who is to blame for what happened at the moment, the investigation continues.
“The preliminary investigation is very complex and extensive. The ongoing preliminary investigation should show whether anyone can be suspected of having committed a crime,” the statement said.
Swedish investigators will continue to cooperate with the authorities of the country and other countries. The prosecutor's office asked for patience."
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/11/18/nord-stream-explosions-caused-by-gross-sabotage-swedish-prosecutor-says

As you understand, to carry out terrorist acts in such conditions (great depth, difficult weather conditions, technically difficult implementation) is not a handicraft "project", not a "handicraft", it is the action of a country that has such means. Well, and most importantly, explosives of this type are industrially produced. And even the trivial trinitrotoluene (the well-known "dynamite") produced, for example, in Mongolia and Canada, will have its own unique "marks", by which it is unambiguously possible to determine the country of origin.
Are we betting on the remains of whose explosives, which country, were found there?
PS I immediately warn you - no need for fairy tales "how the insidious CIA stole explosives in Russia"

[bakasabo]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.

In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

[og kush420]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.

In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

Energy industry working rushing to retire enter
Ukrain gov urges people to restore energy - -6 temp in Ukraine
Strikes have crippled more energy crisis

[sovie]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.

In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

seems like there is so much propaganda going on and people are used to complaint  all the time the best approach is to work hard and smart and gain the financial freedome

[DrBeer]

Let's compare the benefits. For example, the benefit of the United States, and the benefit of Russia, from the explosion of Nord Stream?

When one of the underwater explosive drones that belonged to NATO which failed to explode was already found near the pipeline, it is pointless to argue who benefited from the explosion since we know who did it already!

I know. Everyone else knows that:
Obama - beat light bulbs in entrances, and crap in bodices on the territory of Russia
Business cards of Yarosh were found at the site of all terrorist attacks in Russia
Zaluzhny's business card was found at the site of the explosion of the Crimean Bridge

Well, you were joking, I was joking
Now let's talk about the FACTS. I am awaiting the final report from the Copenhagen Police, who have carried out a series of preliminary investigations with the help of the Danish Armed Forces and in cooperation with the Danish Security and Intelligence Agency. This is in open sources, not "fake news" or fantasy.

https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-pipelines-denmark-confirms-extensive-damage-caused-by-explosions/a-63470412

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/danish-police-say-powerful-explosions-behind-nord-stream-leaks-2022-10-18/


And now please - links to an adequate source, regarding what you are saying?

[Sithara007]

The last time I checked, Dutch TTF gas prices were at $1,288 per thousand cubic meters. This is almost 10 times the 2020 price. And the joke is that winter hasn't started yet. How confident are the EU nations, that the prices will remain in the $1,000-$1,500 range during the winter season? And how they will deal with a potential bottleneck issue, in case Russia suddenly stop all the supplies (pipeline gas through Ukraine, and LNG through Yamal and Portovaya)? A lot will depend on how bad the winter is this time, and we can't predict it at this point. 

[rokok lokal]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The EU sanctions have really hit the Russian economy and that has forced the country to seek new trade partners. Over the past years, Russia has built a strong relationship with China, a relationship that is expected to be close for many years to come. China is also Russia's main trading partner. But India is not as open to an alternative for Europe as it has always been focused on diversifying its business relations, however, both the countries have the potential to develop much closer commercial relationships if India's investments in Russia were increased.

[bakasabo]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.

In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

seems like there is so much propaganda going on and people are used to complaint  all the time the best approach is to work hard and smart and gain the financial freedome

Propaganda is huge indeed. I will share a bit more info. Despite gas is transferred from one national company, and living areas are not far from each other, people somehow pay different prices for m3 of gas. If my bill are 15 EUR higher than a bill for October 2021, then my friends that live 15km from me, got October bill about 50 EUR higher, than they got year ago. Still, those 15-50 EUR or above isnt "300-500 EUR" what press and the Internet promised and scared with.

P.S. My location - a European country that could be next if Russia takes over Ukraine.