Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[DrBeer]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.

In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

seems like there is so much propaganda going on and people are used to complaint  all the time the best approach is to work hard and smart and gain the financial freedome

Propaganda is huge indeed. I will share a bit more info. Despite gas is transferred from one national company, and living areas are not far from each other, people somehow pay different prices for m3 of gas. If my bill are 15 EUR higher than a bill for October 2021, then my friends that live 15km from me, got October bill about 50 EUR higher, than they got year ago. Still, those 15-50 EUR or above isnt "300-500 EUR" what press and the Internet promised and scared with.

P.S. My location - a European country that could be next if Russia takes over Ukraine.

Are you surprised by the price difference? Gas prices, with a difference of 15 km from the consumer ? The answer suggests itself - this is not the influence of Russian economic terrorism, but just the games of local gas suppliers. There are other LOGICAL explanations? I'm sure - no ... I can assume that the supplier of your neighbors bought "to the full" at the peak of prices, and is now trying to return his income in a falling market.
The reality is that at the moment the EU no longer has problems with gas supplies, with gas reserves, long-term contracts for the supply of gas in the required volume.
The problem is only with Russia, which, with all its might, is again trying to "drive into everyone's heads" that "you can't live without Russian gas" ... But the real problem is that Russia is catastrophically and IRREVERSIBLY losing buyers of its gas ... Just watch from the outside, how a backward global gas station turns into a pathetic, losing everything, cheap resource appendage of the world!

P.S. "My location - a European country that could be next if Russia takes over Ukraine." - do not worry, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not allow Russia, the terrorist country, to inflict pain and suffering on someone else!
For this, thanks to our country-brothers and partner countries that help us in the destruction of rashism!

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[DrBeer]

The last time I checked, Dutch TTF gas prices were at $1,288 per thousand cubic meters. This is almost 10 times the 2020 price. And the joke is that winter hasn't started yet. How confident are the EU nations, that the prices will remain in the $1,000-$1,500 range during the winter season? And how they will deal with a potential bottleneck issue, in case Russia suddenly stop all the supplies (pipeline gas through Ukraine, and LNG through Yamal and Portovaya)? A lot will depend on how bad the winter is this time, and we can't predict it at this point.  

 
Dear Sithara007! As always, you are in a humorous shock! Thank you for your subtle humor and jokes

1. Price 1250, today. Subject to yesterday's small artificial trend up.
2. Just an excerpt "An excess of fuel in Europe has led to the fact that LNG tankers have nowhere to unload, which as a result has created" traffic jams "from the ships. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal.". Guess what will happen when this gas enters the EU gas transportation system?
3. Study the weather statistics and forecast for winter 2023 in the EU. Some of your questions / fantasies will disappear immediately

PS. Let me remind you once again - before you print your fantasies and dreams, compare them with the real situation and figures from real sources

[Sithara007]

Russia may completely stop pipeline gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. There is an announcement from Gazprom that they would reduce the supplies through Ukraine starting from next Monday. The immediate reason is alleged pilferage of gas by Ukraine, that was originally marked for the former soviet republic of Moldova. Gazprom claims that Ukraine is diverting some of the gas that is contracted for Moldova (large part of this gas is actually meant for the breakaway republic of Transnistria, where Russian peacekeepers are present).

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gazprom-Threatens-To-Curb-European-Gas-Flows-Through-Ukraine.html

[pooya87]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.

In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

seems like there is so much propaganda going on and people are used to complaint  all the time the best approach is to work hard and smart and gain the financial freedome

Propaganda is huge indeed. I will share a bit more info. Despite gas is transferred from one national company, and living areas are not far from each other, people somehow pay different prices for m3 of gas. If my bill are 15 EUR higher than a bill for October 2021, then my friends that live 15km from me, got October bill about 50 EUR higher, than they got year ago. Still, those 15-50 EUR or above isnt "300-500 EUR" what press and the Internet promised and scared with.

P.S. My location - a European country that could be next if Russia takes over Ukraine.

You can't really make a comparison like this otherwise my gas bill which comes every 2 months was $1.5 (about 1/10 of what you paid) but that doesn't mean there isn't any energy crisis in Europe and the gas price there isn't high or the industries aren't shutting down.

Gas bill depends on a lot of factors.

First and foremost it depends on where you live and where your country is getting its gas. A country that is still receiving gas through pipelines (whether from Russia or through a proxy from Russia or from a neighbor) is going to have access to a much cheaper gas compared to another country that is receiving LNG from abroad (like buying from US or Qatar) since LNG prices are a lot higher in comparison.

Another major factor is if the gas company is owned by the government or is it private sector and more importantly whether the government is printing money to give to those companies in order to artificially keep the gas price down for the citizen consumers. Keep in mind that when your government prints money that means your gas bill is a lot higher than what you think it is since they are taking money out of "your" pocket to pay the companies.
Just google Uniper and their massive losses and how the government is covering their asses to see what I mean.

Another reason I've seen people mention is their unexpired contracts which means their bill cannot legally go up.

[stompix]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.
In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

Propaganda is huge indeed.

Oh, so you finally realized that the doom and gloom and all that crap was, well, just crap?
Remember how offended you were and you messaged me when called you out while repeating the same stuff as that crappy propaganda?
And look how, no disaster, no wild reindeer hunting for human flesh in the cities, no starved penguins migrating from Antarctica to Europe, no collapse, no nothing.
Who would have thought of that?

and we can't predict it at this point. 

You, of course, can't predict a single thing, and I wonder why the hell you keep on trying unless you're really masochist and you enjoy people making fun of your predictions.
Let's go over them again.
- the collapse of the EU industry while, what a surprise, we're still posting economic growth
- the fall of Ukraine in May with Russia conquering half of it before that?
- the 300$ barrel of oil?
- the surplus and the boom in Russian exports while, what a surprise, Russia has entered a deficit?
- the lack of food in the Eu? Lol, the starvation...
- the donkey-driven Europe while Germany alone sells as many new cars as the whole of India (passenger cars, not mopeds)
- and of course the $5000 per whatever gas which again shows just how ignorant you are, as obviously the fucking price is in Euros per MW.

But if you enjoy it, if you enjoy becoming the laughing stock next to the other wanna-be superpower propagandist keep doing it, at least, it's funny to see you screaming in pain we're not collapsing and not reverting to your standards.

[Sithara007]

During the last 2 weeks, Dutch TTF gas prices have gone up by almost 30%. There are a lot of LNG tankers lining up outside the ports in Europe (especially in Spain and France), but there are not enough regassification capacity available. German officials are talking about floating LNG terminals being ready by early next year, but I am quite skeptical about this. Three months of harsh winter awaits the Europeans. So far the ordinary people didn't felt the impact from gas shortage, as it was borne by the industrial sector. But that will change from next month onwards.

[Argoo]

Russia may completely stop pipeline gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. There is an announcement from Gazprom that they would reduce the supplies through Ukraine starting from next Monday. The immediate reason is alleged pilferage of gas by Ukraine, that was originally marked for the former soviet republic of Moldova. Gazprom claims that Ukraine is diverting some of the gas that is contracted for Moldova (large part of this gas is actually meant for the breakaway republic of Transnistria, where Russian peacekeepers are present).

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gazprom-Threatens-To-Curb-European-Gas-Flows-Through-Ukraine.html

In the so-called Transnistrian Republic, there are not Russian peacekeepers, but Russian occupying troops, which traditionally create a hotbed of tension in this region, with the help of which Russia is trying to militarily influence the neighboring state. The same is happening in Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of Georgia, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. Russia occupies territories, creates controlled authorities there and thus influences the internal politics of its neighbors.

As for Russian oil and gas for European countries, they themselves are trying to refuse energy supplies from Russia as soon as possible in connection with Russia's use of energy as a weapon and a method of blackmail, and a military invasion of Ukraine is forcing this country to stop transit through military actions oil and gas from Russia, as happened in mid-November with the Druzhba oil pipeline. As a result, Russia completely loses the European market for its energy products and loses big.

[DrBeer]

Russia may completely stop pipeline gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. There is an announcement from Gazprom that they would reduce the supplies through Ukraine starting from next Monday. The immediate reason is alleged pilferage of gas by Ukraine, that was originally marked for the former soviet republic of Moldova. Gazprom claims that Ukraine is diverting some of the gas that is contracted for Moldova (large part of this gas is actually meant for the breakaway republic of Transnistria, where Russian peacekeepers are present).

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gazprom-Threatens-To-Curb-European-Gas-Flows-Through-Ukraine.html

Another Russian shot in your own ass
Russia has already lost the European market by about 75%. Lost - IRREVERSIBLE.
By blocking or carrying out another terrorist act on the Ukrainian gas transportation system, the terrorist country will wipe out almost 90% of the European market. In anticipation of a moratorium on the supply of Russian oil and the introduction of maximum prices for Russian oil, the Russian budget will simply collapse. Russia is an economically and technologically backward country; it will have no other options for obtaining a stable currency. Their weapons turned out to be fake and non-competitive shit, which means that the arms market is lost. By the way, specify about India's purchases of coal in Russia?

"Moscow, October 24 - IA Neftegaz.RU. In October 2022, the supply of Russian coal to India will be reduced by 51% compared to September and will amount to 730 thousand tons.
This was reported by Kommersant on October 24, 2022, citing data from the Indian agency CoalMint.
Deliveries of Russian thermal coal to India are reduced for the 2nd month in a row,
In September 2022, thermal coal imports from Russia fell for the first time since May."

https://neftegaz.ru/news/coal/755746-v-oktyabre-2022-g-postavki-rossiyskogo-uglya-v-indiyu-sokratyatsya-na-51-v-sravnenii-s-sentyabrem/

[og kush420]

During the last 2 weeks, Dutch TTF gas prices have gone up by almost 30%. There are a lot of LNG tankers lining up outside the ports in Europe (especially in Spain and France), but there are not enough regassification capacity available. German officials are talking about floating LNG terminals being ready by early next year, but I am quite skeptical about this. Three months of harsh winter awaits the Europeans. So far the ordinary people didn't felt the impact from gas shortage, as it was borne by the industrial sector. But that will change from next month onwards.

there is so much going on already in the world. These war should be stopped
at any cost! ANd hopefully this said gas issue wont be much of the issue surly all the countries are well equipped with the sources and know how to take care of their resources.

[DrBeer]

During the last 2 weeks, Dutch TTF gas prices have gone up by almost 30%. There are a lot of LNG tankers lining up outside the ports in Europe (especially in Spain and France), but there are not enough regassification capacity available. German officials are talking about floating LNG terminals being ready by early next year, but I am quite skeptical about this. Three months of harsh winter awaits the Europeans. So far the ordinary people didn't felt the impact from gas shortage, as it was borne by the industrial sector. But that will change from next month onwards.

there is so much going on already in the world. These war should be stopped
at any cost! ANd hopefully this said gas issue wont be much of the issue surly all the countries are well equipped with the sources and know how to take care of their resources.

I'll explain a lot to you ... STOP at any cost will not work. There is no value in human life in Russia, they will send hundreds of thousands of their citizens simply to be slaughtered. This is openly spoken at the very top in the Kremlin. It sounds like this: "There are no unacceptable losses in our manpower for us."
What Russia has arranged is international terrorism seasoned with Nazism. It's all called RASHISM. It is the cancer of the modern world. The only option acceptable for a normal world is the TOTAL destruction of the carriers of the ideology of rashism, demilitarization, and total control over the remnants of this vile under-empire. Only the destruction of rashism will put an end to this problem ... Believe me, as a resident of Ukraine, I saw with my own eyes what they brought to us. And if they destroy Ukraine, the same nightmare will go on - first Eastern Europe, and then beyond ... I don’t think you would like to experience what the citizens of Ukraine experienced ....

[og kush420]

I'll explain a lot to you ... STOP at any cost will not work. There is no value in human life in Russia, they will send hundreds of thousands of their citizens simply to be slaughtered. This is openly spoken at the very top in the Kremlin. It sounds like this: "There are no unacceptable losses in our manpower for us."
What Russia has arranged is international terrorism seasoned with Nazism. It's all called RASHISM. It is the cancer of the modern world. The only option acceptable for a normal world is the TOTAL destruction of the carriers of the ideology of rashism, demilitarization, and total control over the remnants of this vile under-empire. Only the destruction of rashism will put an end to this problem ... Believe me, as a resident of Ukraine, I saw with my own eyes what they brought to us. And if they destroy Ukraine, the same nightmare will go on - first Eastern Europe, and then beyond ... I don’t think you would like to experience what the citizens of Ukraine experienced ....

I agree with you. But its not only Russia - it is going on everywhere
There is no value of human being anywhere. Russia in particular and other nations in general - the killing of innocent will continue and the world will keep protesting

[bakasabo]

Before heating season has started, everyone was scared of huge utility bills. It was claimed that gas supplies arent huge enough to satisfy needs, people should seek for alternative, government fill gas supplies with expensive gas and etc.
In my house central heating was switched on in the beginning of October. Yesterday I have received my bill. And in it, the line "heating" was only 15 EUR higher than last year. For information, previous year "heating" also cost more than it was the year before. So far it aint that bad after all.

Propaganda is huge indeed.

Oh, so you finally realized that the doom and gloom and all that crap was, well, just crap?
Remember how offended you were and you messaged me when called you out while repeating the same stuff as that crappy propaganda?
And look how, no disaster, no wild reindeer hunting for human flesh in the cities, no starved penguins migrating from Antarctica to Europe, no collapse, no nothing.
Who would have thought of that?

I only remember how you called me a Russian cheater, who pretend to be a fake European, who is having problems with banks. In fact, you told me that I post something, then I must post it with proofs, but you did not bother giving any proofs why you think I am a European pretender, ending with calling me a "polish descendant that is sucking on Russian propaganda".

[Sithara007]

Some more good news for the Ukraine fans here:

https://www.ft.com/content/81db1e45-6ef9-4034-879b-82597e2b87f9

Import of Russian LNG by the European customers have shot up by 40% so far in 2022. LNG from Russia comprised for 16% of all the LNG imported by the EU. And that means that around 1/5th of the natural gas imported by the European Union still comes from Russia, either as LNG or through the pipeline. I am not sure whether the LNG will keep flowing from Russia during the winter months. If the demand is higher in East Asia, then Russia may divert most of the gas there. And this will cause a supply imbalance in the EU. 

[19Nov16]

The thing that makes Russia strong is natural resources including gas that supplies needs in Europe, if Russia tires supply to Europe then Europe will be very loss, because it takes a very long time to find gas and, of course the price obtained will be more expensive than Russia, This is what makes Russia not afraid to invasion to Ukraine.

[yohananaomi]

The thing that makes Russia strong is natural resources including gas that supplies needs in Europe, if Russia tires supply to Europe then Europe will be very loss, because it takes a very long time to find gas and, of course the price obtained will be more expensive than Russia, This is what makes Russia not afraid to invasion to Ukraine.

the country's dependence on vital needs will make it have to think long and hard, as well as some European countries that really need oil and gas from Russia. if a country carries out an embargo it will be subject to the opposite effect of the embargo and that is of course not easy. what you say is very true, to replace supplies from other countries is not an easy thing and can be executed immediately.
but of course this will also have an impact on other things, not only about oil and gas but also intervention assistance which will actually make it more difficult for peace to be carried out.
I hope this can be resolved by way of peaceful negotiations, because the impact that can lead to all countries cannot be avoided.

[Joshapat]

The dependency that has occurred for a long time in Russian gas makes Europe look weak, when Russia invasion of Ukraine, Europe cannot do much, let alone the threat that gas will be decided so as to make the European industry can die, of course this is a difficult thing to be able to suppress Russia during Dependence with Russian gas.

[RockBell]

Oil and gas production is Russia's primary source of generating revenue. in light of oil and gas, The European Union placed a ban on them, which is a bad market and will undoubtedly have an impact on their GDP. I feel the European Union was simply trying to shut down Russia after waging war against Ukraine and looking at it globally the war is not just affecting Russia's economy but also everyone else's. With the ban now the selling price will drop, and since Russia has another source that can keep the economy going like coal and natural gas, I feel that the European Union was just trying or means to stop the war.

[DrBeer]

the country's dependence on vital needs will make it have to think long and hard, as well as some European countries that really need oil and gas from Russia. if a country carries out an embargo it will be subject to the opposite effect of the embargo and that is of course not easy. what you say is very true, to replace supplies from other countries is not an easy thing and can be executed immediately.
but of course this will also have an impact on other things, not only about oil and gas but also intervention assistance which will actually make it more difficult for peace to be carried out.
I hope this can be resolved by way of peaceful negotiations, because the impact that can lead to all countries cannot be avoided.

I will confidently enough assume that you have poorly studied the history of Russian gas monopolization of a critical part of the industry of Germany, Italy and France, in the second middle of the 20th century!
Back in the 60-70s, by various methods of influencing the top authorities of these countries (from bribery to blackmail), the Kremlin planted these 3 leaders of the European economy on its gas. In recent years, through corrupt parties and international organizations, and with the help of all sorts of pro-Kremlin politicians, for example, nuclear power plants have been stopped in Germany. And everything went well, for the Kremlin, until they imagined themselves to be "gods" and "lords of pipes", being an ordinary raw material appendage. But they decided that everything was allowed to them, unleashed a lot of conflicts and began to "rule" the fate of other countries. So far, they have stumbled upon the resistance of Ukraine and the help of the West, which had previously been sitting and pretending that nothing was happening. Everything changed after the departure from high positions of the old EU authorities, which flirted with the Kremlin...

[og kush420]

the country's dependence on vital needs will make it have to think long and hard, as well as some European countries that really need oil and gas from Russia. if a country carries out an embargo it will be subject to the opposite effect of the embargo and that is of course not easy. what you say is very true, to replace supplies from other countries is not an easy thing and can be executed immediately.
but of course this will also have an impact on other things, not only about oil and gas but also intervention assistance which will actually make it more difficult for peace to be carried out.
I hope this can be resolved by way of peaceful negotiations, because the impact that can lead to all countries cannot be avoided.

I will confidently enough assume that you have poorly studied the history of Russian gas monopolization of a critical part of the industry of Germany, Italy and France, in the second middle of the 20th century!
Back in the 60-70s, by various methods of influencing the top authorities of these countries (from bribery to blackmail), the Kremlin planted these 3 leaders of the European economy on its gas. In recent years, through corrupt parties and international organizations, and with the help of all sorts of pro-Kremlin politicians, for example, nuclear power plants have been stopped in Germany. And everything went well, for the Kremlin, until they imagined themselves to be "gods" and "lords of pipes", being an ordinary raw material appendage. But they decided that everything was allowed to them, unleashed a lot of conflicts and began to "rule" the fate of other countries. So far, they have stumbled upon the resistance of Ukraine and the help of the West, which had previously been sitting and pretending that nothing was happening. Everything changed after the departure from high positions of the old EU authorities, which flirted with the Kremlin...

Now there is oil price cap for Russian and Russian are not not agreed to it for $60
WHat is USA up to - they think it will stabilize the int market

[DrBeer]

Now there is oil price cap for Russian and Russian are not agreed to it for $60
WHat is USA up to - they think it will stabilize the int market

1. Not the US but the EU. They are imposing an embargo, and they have initiated the setting of price ceilings for oil from the country of an international terrorist.
2. Goals? Minimize the receipt of income that goes to the terrorist war, and to support the rashist regime of the Kremlin. How ? By reducing the marginal purchase price of oil to a level where the associated costs and prime cost will be at the level of the selling price, i.e. not to receive PROFIT.
3. Will it work? Will be ! Because in addition to the marginal purchase prices, several more restrictions have been introduced or are being introduced:
- a ban on the supply of equipment for oil production (Russia is a technologically backward country, even in such a critical industry for it)
- restriction on insurance of ships for oil transportation
- adoption by the EU of a law criminalizing attempts to circumvent sanctions (including the embargo)
- "invaluable benefit from friends" such as China and India. Which are forced to sell Russia to them oil at a price of $ 30 per barrel. And from 2023, I think it’s even cheaper, because. - embargo