Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[DrBeer]

The situation is similar to the situation with Iraq - no one is going to restore the destroyed Iraq, although oil continues to be produced on its territory. 

In the modern world, victory is not necessarily a victory - it is the seizure of the capital, the public execution of the president in the central square and the signing of the capitulation.
I will repeat once again - Putin's status as an international criminal is not just an entry in his personal file. This is quite a clear sign to the Russian elites and Putin's opponents - you can destroy it, create a new government that will accept the conditions of a developed world, including reparations payments, punished war criminals, and so on. And it will work, it's only a matter of time, because time is now happy against Putin, and against the economy of the Russian Federation, and in general against the Russian Federation....


Speaking of Iraq - yes, this is one of the scenarios for reparations payments - Russia will be divided into several zones, under external control, resource zones will be mined and supplied to hubs with oil and gas, sales control will be external, as well as the return of part of the income from the sale to the receiving countries reparation payments. But no one will restore and invest money in Russia until its complete division into independent states!

[1714621078]

1714621078

[1714621078]

1714621078

[Smartprofit]

The situation is similar to the situation with Iraq - no one is going to restore the destroyed Iraq, although oil continues to be produced on its territory. 

In the modern world, victory is not necessarily a victory - it is the seizure of the capital, the public execution of the president in the central square and the signing of the capitulation.
I will repeat once again - Putin's status as an international criminal is not just an entry in his personal file. This is quite a clear sign to the Russian elites and Putin's opponents - you can destroy it, create a new government that will accept the conditions of a developed world, including reparations payments, punished war criminals, and so on. And it will work, it's only a matter of time, because time is now happy against Putin, and against the economy of the Russian Federation, and in general against the Russian Federation....


Speaking of Iraq - yes, this is one of the scenarios for reparations payments - Russia will be divided into several zones, under external control, resource zones will be mined and supplied to hubs with oil and gas, sales control will be external, as well as the return of part of the income from the sale to the receiving countries reparation payments. But no one will restore and invest money in Russia until its complete division into independent states!

Would you like such a future for your country - division into independent states, bloody civil wars, external occupation, reparations, etc.? 

At the same time, without any purpose and without any hope for a positive future (even after 100 years).  No one will voluntarily choose such a future for themselves. 

Therefore, all the scenarios you listed are very unlikely. 

Everyone remembers the collapse of the USSR and the 1990s that followed, everyone sees the disasters of Ukraine, so none of the Russians will choose such a development of events for themselves. 

Ideally, Ukraine and Russia would have to completely isolate themselves from each other, cutting off all contacts, but this had to be done immediately after the Maidan, and now everything is tied into a dead knot and the opponents will no longer be able to stop and cannot stop strangling each other, since  death is guaranteed at the end of the fight. 

This is the problem.  That's why everything is so hopeless....

[DrBeer]

Currently, the most popular opinion on the Internet is that India and China are now buying hydrocarbons from Russia at a deep discount. Is this true?

Andrei Movchan (a well-known financier of Russian origin, now living in London) made an attempt to understand this issue. To do this, he invited an expert to his program - a practitioner who specializes in oil and natural gas trading and knows the situation in this market very well. The conclusions of this expert were unexpected for Andrei Movchan himself.

It turned out that China and India receive hydrocarbons from Russia at practically market prices (at the same time, these prices are quite high at present). Russia also incurs losses (additional costs), but these losses are not from the low sale price, but from the increased costs of maritime transportation.

These expenses of the Russian side have increased many times over.

Why didn't India and China take advantage of the situation and demand that Russia sell hydrocarbons at a discount? Everything is very simple.

Currently, the hydrocarbon market is still a supplier market, not a buyer market. The traditional suppliers of hydrocarbons to India and China (USA and Arab countries) switched to the supply of oil and natural gas to the countries of the European Union.

And India and China are now forced to buy hydrocarbons from Russia and they do not have the opportunity to demand a price reduction.

I watched this program. If you listen carefully to the entire text, then there is a subtle point, he says that he will express his opinion.
But there is another piece of information. To begin with, I will explain one nuance that can create an incorrect perception and assessment of the future.
You should understand that the oil market is now essentially divided into 2 channels:
- the world market where the price of Urals is approximately 50 dollars (information is available in open sources), and there are no prices of 70-75 dollars The second brand of Russian oil is slightly more expensive, but its share in the total sales volume is quite small.

- the "grey" market, where Russia sells excess oil, which was formed after the embargo and restrictions were introduced. Why is it a series? Because neither China nor India buys this oil according to the first scheme! Why? Because they understand that Russia does not store surplus oil anywhere (Russia does not have the infrastructure to store large reserves), and there is no one to sell it to (embargo and the stigma of terrorists), then there is an ADDITIONAL discount on this lot, as was announced by traders from China. I do not think that India will not use the option to earn extra good money

By the way, it is not entirely correct to say that the market is now controlled by sellers. The price of Russian oil fell below even the established limit, the gap with standard oil brands increased, and Russia does not influence the price in any way, although it VERY much wants to. This suggests that there may be normal sellers and they control the market, but it is not a rogue country.

[pooya87]

Speaking of problems for Europe, the protests across Europe are getting worse specifically in France where the new retirement rules was the last straw that broke the camel's back. Some stats are putting the number of protesters at 3.5 million with dozens killed, and thousands wounded and maimed in these protests because of the police brutality. Of course the official stats only talk about the 441 police officers that were injured.

[DrBeer]

The history of Transnistria is a very tragic story. Initially, there was a single country - the USSR.

The so-called Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was then the place of compact residence of Moldavians. Ethnically and culturally, Moldovans are closest to Romanians. At the same time, Moldova is a purely agrarian country, Moldovans specialize in agriculture. At the same time, an industrial territorial entity (the so-called Transnistria) was artificially included in the Moldavian SSR, the majority of the population, which was predominantly not even Russians, but Ukrainians.

It was the Ukrainians who were the titular nation in this region. And from the point of view of common sense, Transnistria, of course, should have been part of Ukraine, and not Moldova.

Alternatively, this region could be included in Russia (the former RSFSR), since there are a lot of Russians in Transnistria (the second largest nationality after Ukrainians). But the problem was that Transnistria does not border Russia, for Russia it is an enclave.

Since no one planned the collapse of the USSR, Pridnestrovie was part of the Moldavian USSR. When the USSR collapsed, Moldovan troops attacked the peaceful cities of Transnistria (it was a national conflict). In particular, the city of Bendery was destroyed. It was a terrible disaster.

Fortunately, a smart, honest and determined Soviet general, an ethnic Ukrainian Alexander Lebed, was found. Thanks to his decisive actions, this war was stopped, and the killing of civilians was stopped.

I'm sorry - but I'll correct you, in some places you are mistaken.

In the beginning, there was no USSR Muscovy was in that place, more precisely in part of the territory.
And some territories, for example Moldova, were in 1940 .. stolen from Romania. Yes, yes, the theft of foreign lands, under various pretexts, is not an invention of modern Russia ... Look for historical facts using the phrase "Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina."

In the same way - and most of the other republics, since 1921 they were simply occupied by Muscovy / RSFSR.
Until 1921, for example, there was the Ukrainian Independent Republic, with territories including Taganrog, part of the Belgorod region, and the entire Kuban, which were then torn off and stolen by the RSFSR.

The second important misconception is that "there are a lot of Russians there." This is not true. Indeed, sometimes there may be an opinion that "there are many Russians in many republics of the USSR." But in fact, there are many Russians in the territories of the occupied independent states. And they appeared there after, from 1930 to 1954, the Kremlin ghouls destroyed the local population, culture, evicted hundreds of thousands of citizens of other "fraternal republics" to the wild north of Russia. And in their place they settled their own citizens from the depressive territories of the RSFSR. More precisely, and more correctly, from most of the territories of the RSFSR, since most of the RSFSR were indeed depressive territories, with a degraded population.

So there was a deliberate forced assimilation, or, correctly, the occupation and destruction of the local population and replacement by aliens. This is history, these are facts.

[Smartprofit]

The history of Transnistria is a very tragic story. Initially, there was a single country - the USSR.

The so-called Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was then the place of compact residence of Moldavians. Ethnically and culturally, Moldovans are closest to Romanians. At the same time, Moldova is a purely agrarian country, Moldovans specialize in agriculture. At the same time, an industrial territorial entity (the so-called Transnistria) was artificially included in the Moldavian SSR, the majority of the population, which was predominantly not even Russians, but Ukrainians.

It was the Ukrainians who were the titular nation in this region. And from the point of view of common sense, Transnistria, of course, should have been part of Ukraine, and not Moldova.

Alternatively, this region could be included in Russia (the former RSFSR), since there are a lot of Russians in Transnistria (the second largest nationality after Ukrainians). But the problem was that Transnistria does not border Russia, for Russia it is an enclave.

Since no one planned the collapse of the USSR, Pridnestrovie was part of the Moldavian USSR. When the USSR collapsed, Moldovan troops attacked the peaceful cities of Transnistria (it was a national conflict). In particular, the city of Bendery was destroyed. It was a terrible disaster.

Fortunately, a smart, honest and determined Soviet general, an ethnic Ukrainian Alexander Lebed, was found. Thanks to his decisive actions, this war was stopped, and the killing of civilians was stopped.

I'm sorry - but I'll correct you, in some places you are mistaken.

In the beginning, there was no USSR Muscovy was in that place, more precisely in part of the territory.
And some territories, for example Moldova, were in 1940 .. stolen from Romania. Yes, yes, the theft of foreign lands, under various pretexts, is not an invention of modern Russia ... Look for historical facts using the phrase "Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina."

In the same way - and most of the other republics, since 1921 they were simply occupied by Muscovy / RSFSR.
Until 1921, for example, there was the Ukrainian Independent Republic, with territories including Taganrog, part of the Belgorod region, and the entire Kuban, which were then torn off and stolen by the RSFSR.

The second important misconception is that "there are a lot of Russians there." This is not true. Indeed, sometimes there may be an opinion that "there are many Russians in many republics of the USSR." But in fact, there are many Russians in the territories of the occupied independent states. And they appeared there after, from 1930 to 1954, the Kremlin ghouls destroyed the local population, culture, evicted hundreds of thousands of citizens of other "fraternal republics" to the wild north of Russia. And in their place they settled their own citizens from the depressive territories of the RSFSR. More precisely, and more correctly, from most of the territories of the RSFSR, since most of the RSFSR were indeed depressive territories, with a degraded population.

So there was a deliberate forced assimilation, or, correctly, the occupation and destruction of the local population and replacement by aliens. This is history, these are facts.

I already wrote that I am a supporter of the ban on the study of history at school.... 

I recently read a book by renowned futurist Alvin Toffler and she convinced me that this is absolutely necessary.  Alvin Toffler wrote that in today's schools, children are taught the past, not the future. 

Meanwhile, people should aspire to the future, and when analyzing the past, always ask yourself two questions - What good thing that was before can be realized in the future?  What can be improved?  The past matters only as a basis for the future. 

Example.  How to make Russia become an integral part of Europe?  How can Russian natural gas improve the future of Europe and humanity?  Here are the questions I think should be asked.

It is clear that a ban on Russian gas will have an economically negative impact on both Russia and the European Union.... 

And I study history not by textbooks, but by reading fiction novels.  Of course, when I read Jaroslav Hasek's novel about the adventures of the good soldier Schweik, it may surprise me at first that Romania was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.  And after a while, I begin to understand that before the 20th century there were no nation-states, but there were Empires, and nationalism within these Empires manifested itself mainly at the everyday level, when representatives of some regions hit representatives of other regions in the face. 

However, when nation-states began to emerge en masse in the 20th century, it became necessary to create a separate history for each of the newly formed nations.  But I'm not interested in this, because all this is aimed at awakening the base primitive instincts in people (the principle - "Own - Alien"). 

Personally, I consider myself a representative of the human race of living beings and do not identify myself with any nation, because this is a return to the past, but we must go to the future, when all people will unite and jointly explore outer space (this is a global task for all Humanity).

[serveria.com]

The history of Transnistria is a very tragic story. Initially, there was a single country - the USSR.

The so-called Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was then the place of compact residence of Moldavians. Ethnically and culturally, Moldovans are closest to Romanians. At the same time, Moldova is a purely agrarian country, Moldovans specialize in agriculture. At the same time, an industrial territorial entity (the so-called Transnistria) was artificially included in the Moldavian SSR, the majority of the population, which was predominantly not even Russians, but Ukrainians.

It was the Ukrainians who were the titular nation in this region. And from the point of view of common sense, Transnistria, of course, should have been part of Ukraine, and not Moldova.

Alternatively, this region could be included in Russia (the former RSFSR), since there are a lot of Russians in Transnistria (the second largest nationality after Ukrainians). But the problem was that Transnistria does not border Russia, for Russia it is an enclave.

Since no one planned the collapse of the USSR, Pridnestrovie was part of the Moldavian USSR. When the USSR collapsed, Moldovan troops attacked the peaceful cities of Transnistria (it was a national conflict). In particular, the city of Bendery was destroyed. It was a terrible disaster.

Fortunately, a smart, honest and determined Soviet general, an ethnic Ukrainian Alexander Lebed, was found. Thanks to his decisive actions, this war was stopped, and the killing of civilians was stopped.

I'm sorry - but I'll correct you, in some places you are mistaken.

In the beginning, there was no USSR Muscovy was in that place, more precisely in part of the territory.
And some territories, for example Moldova, were in 1940 .. stolen from Romania. Yes, yes, the theft of foreign lands, under various pretexts, is not an invention of modern Russia ... Look for historical facts using the phrase "Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina."

In the same way - and most of the other republics, since 1921 they were simply occupied by Muscovy / RSFSR.
Until 1921, for example, there was the Ukrainian Independent Republic, with territories including Taganrog, part of the Belgorod region, and the entire Kuban, which were then torn off and stolen by the RSFSR.

The second important misconception is that "there are a lot of Russians there." This is not true. Indeed, sometimes there may be an opinion that "there are many Russians in many republics of the USSR." But in fact, there are many Russians in the territories of the occupied independent states. And they appeared there after, from 1930 to 1954, the Kremlin ghouls destroyed the local population, culture, evicted hundreds of thousands of citizens of other "fraternal republics" to the wild north of Russia. And in their place they settled their own citizens from the depressive territories of the RSFSR. More precisely, and more correctly, from most of the territories of the RSFSR, since most of the RSFSR were indeed depressive territories, with a degraded population.

So there was a deliberate forced assimilation, or, correctly, the occupation and destruction of the local population and replacement by aliens. This is history, these are facts.

...and if we'll rewind some more, there was a similar sad story of Native Americans and their brutal slaughter by the "peaceful pilgrims". It was much bloodier if compared to the history of Russia. And btw, communists killed more Russians than representatives of other nationalities: from 1920s to 1950s around 4 million people got deported and ~700k executed.

[DrBeer]

...and if we'll rewind some more, there was a similar sad story of Native Americans and their brutal slaughter by the "peaceful pilgrims". It was much bloodier if compared to the history of Russia. And btw, communists killed more Russians than representatives of other nationalities: from 1920s to 1950s around 4 million people got deported and ~700k executed.

I have never denied this!
There are many more examples. But I am not ready to challenge or insist on the truth of my views on the history of other countries where I have not lived. To do this, you need to seriously and comprehensively immerse yourself in history, study the causes and consequences.
But I perfectly know the history of Muscovy/USSR/modern space of post-USSR and modern Russia.
But here I’ll still add - that the victims of Muscovy, and then Russia, and then the USSR, and then Russia - were many tens of millions of those killed! Perhaps more - in Muscovy / Russia it has always been customary to hide or distort their "history", embellishing themselves and denying the crimes committed, often attributing their crimes to completely different people.
And what's for sure - hundreds of millions of people became victims - both physical destruction and ideological / political and other terror!
A little higher, the respected Smartprofit writes about empires, and it’s hard to disagree with him. But today, with such a "wild imperial concept", in fact, there is only one country left - Russia ...

[Sithara007]

...and if we'll rewind some more, there was a similar sad story of Native Americans and their brutal slaughter by the "peaceful pilgrims". It was much bloodier if compared to the history of Russia. And btw, communists killed more Russians than representatives of other nationalities: from 1920s to 1950s around 4 million people got deported and ~700k executed.

According to Timothy D. Snyder, Stalin alone alone killed more than 9 million and more than half of this number consisted of ethnic Russians. On top of that, most of the 27 million deaths suffered by the USSR during WW2 resulted from stupid policies of Stalin. And a large share of this 27 million consisted of very young men, and therefore the actual losses in the long run were much more amplified. In Belarus 25% of the population was wiped out as a result of WW2, while in Ukraine the death rate was 16%.

[DrBeer]

According to Timothy D. Snyder, Stalin alone killed more than 9 million and more than half of this number consisted of ethnic Russians. On top of that, most of the 27 million deaths suffered by the USSR during WW2 resulted from stupid policies of Stalin. And a large share of this 27 million consisted of very young men, and therefore the actual losses in the long run were much more amplified. In Belarus 25% of the population was wiped out as a result of WW2, while in Ukraine the death rate was 16%.

1. The real number of casualties in the Second World War on the side of the USSR can only be guessed at the moment.
2. You took one of the models, and only those who died and only in the period from 1941 to 1945. The Second World War began in 1939, and the Soviet Union was already suffering losses... Destroying Europe together with friendly Germany. I'll just give examples: terrorist wars in Poland, Finland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia... People DIED there too.
3. You did not consider the so-called secondary losses are invalids, mutilated, all those who could not continue a full life. And which the USSR forgot. Yes Yes. After the war, there were a huge number of disabled people on the streets of the cities, which we expect. Even with 25 million dead and injured according to statistics - approximately x3, i.e. 75 (!!!!) million people. Yes, not everyone became fully disabled - but many, because At that time, the USSR used its characteristic practice of "throwing the bodies of its soldiers at the enemy." There were several million "full-fledged" disabled people, which was also not a small number. But in the period of 1948-1950, all of them were "quietly" taken outside the cities, where they practically all died within a couple of years without normal medicine. Why was it taken away? And "so as not to spoil the picture" - Stalin did not like legless/armless soldiers on boards, which he and the generals hated....

Well, the most important thing is that you write only about the repressions of Stalin's time and only political ones.
And now I will remind you about the "red terror" of Lenin's time. When people were killed just for the sake of killing.
You forgot about the deliberate Holodomors that swept through Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and other "republics". These were targeted processes of "quiet" destruction of the civilian population. Then, almost 5 million civilians, mostly rural, died in Ukraine alone.
You bypassed the topic of "great resettled peoples", when the peoples of the Caucasus, for example, were simply deported (without their belongings and everything they had acquired) to the far northern regions of the RSFSR, and where those who remained and were alive after the "resettlement" worked in the wildest conditions until their death. What is essentially a premeditated murder through slave labor. Millions of civilians also died from this "process". And all the documents now continue to be hidden, they are all in Russia under the label of "secrecy"

4. And about "all losses". Even the official statistics of the false USSR speak of the national composition of the dead:
Russian 5,756,000 66.402% (of the TOTAL number of dead)
Ukrainians 1,377,400 15.890% (of the TOTAL number of dead)

As for the population of the republics, it will be:
RSFSR - 99 million in 1939, or approximately 5.2%
Ukrainian SSR - 24 million in 1939, or approximately 5.8%


At the same time, the territory of the Ukrainian SSR, "thanks to the skillful resistance organized by the Soviet government", almost all industry and most of the cities were completely destroyed. Moreover, many objects were destroyed on the orders of the Kremlin itself, allegedly to "harm the advancing troops." As a result, the infrastructure, OWN citizens, OWN troops were destroyed with their own hands, but not a single occupier was injured. These are also facts!

[be.open]

These are also facts!

Such a great connoisseur of history as you, of course, also knows the Paraguayan War of 1864-1870 against the triple alliance of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Paraguay then lost up to 90% of the male population and suffered a crushing defeat, from which it has not recovered to this day, the consequences of that suicidal aggression are felt in Paraguay even after 150 years, it is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. I think it is useful for every Ukrainian to learn this historical lesson.

[Argoo]

These are also facts!

Such a great connoisseur of history as you, of course, also knows the Paraguayan War of 1864-1870 against the triple alliance of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Paraguay then lost up to 90% of the male population and suffered a crushing defeat, from which it has not recovered to this day, the consequences of that suicidal aggression are felt in Paraguay even after 150 years, it is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. I think it is useful for every Ukrainian to learn this historical lesson.

And why is it useful for Ukrainians to learn the lesson of the Paraguayan war you cited, in which the Paraguayans lost 90 percent of the male population? It seems to me that it is the Russians who should think about such a lesson now. Having already an acute shortage of armored vehicles, they are now attacking the Ukrainians without proper support and are suffering heavy losses in manpower. So, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if from the beginning of the invasion - on February 24 and until the end of the year, that is, in more than ten months, the Russians lost about 100,000 military personnel killed, then from the beginning of this year, that is, in less than three months, their losses already amount to over 71,000 people. If they continue to wage this senseless war of conquest at such a pace, they may lose men just like the Paraguayans.

  By the way, the Chinese are already waiting and ready to provide all possible assistance to Russian women. Moreover, they are hard-working, not drunkards. Russian women may well accept such help from the neighboring people.

[Sithara007]

These are also facts!

Such a great connoisseur of history as you, of course, also knows the Paraguayan War of 1864-1870 against the triple alliance of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Paraguay then lost up to 90% of the male population and suffered a crushing defeat, from which it has not recovered to this day, the consequences of that suicidal aggression are felt in Paraguay even after 150 years, it is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. I think it is useful for every Ukrainian to learn this historical lesson.

During War of the Triple Alliance, it is estimated that Paraguay lost 69% of its total population. If you apply the same ratio to Ukraine, you will get 25 million dead people, which is almost equal to the total number of deaths the USSR suffered during WW2. There were several indirect consequences as a result of the war. One consequence was the destruction of the Spanish-speaking population in Paraguay. Guarani speakers became the majority as a result of high losses suffered by the Spanish speakers and that situation prevails to this day. In Ukraine, the situation is exactly the opposite. Ukrainian army is using ethnic minorities as cannon fodder (Russians, Hungarians and Romanians), in order to make Ukraine a mono-ethic state.

[DrBeer]

These are also facts!

Such a great connoisseur of history as you, of course, also knows the Paraguayan War of 1864-1870 against the triple alliance of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Paraguay then lost up to 90% of the male population and suffered a crushing defeat, from which it has not recovered to this day, the consequences of that suicidal aggression are felt in Paraguay even after 150 years, it is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. I think it is useful for every Ukrainian to learn this historical lesson.

Sorry, but your behavior really resembles the tantrum of a little girl offended by the whole world, who wants to answer something, but the intellectual level is still not enough, but I really want to say the word "offensive"
Your answer would sound more logical if it were: "Wheel, banana, caliper, 19, cup, North Pole!" ))

LOGIC should be in the answer? Where is the logic ? ))

Which Paraguay? And here Paraguay to the Second World War? And what does Paraguay have to do with lend-lease in 1941? And here is the poverty of Paraguay, its wars of the 18th century, to Ukraine today?! Let's say something else about the Stone Age? By the way, this will be very relevant for Russia - the Stone Age is its prospect
At least because it is Russia that today has the largest losses of the able-bodied / productive population, which, like sheep, goes to the slaughter in the east of Ukraine! Where they are simply shot like targets in a shooting range And the second half of the "great Russians" - cowardly flees from Russia, runs in millions! And this is also a fact! Which you yourself know very well, but are trying to deny the reality, because it's a shame to realize that you lost and ahead of you is the same example with Paraguay

[Sithara007]

Another article on the European dependence on Russian LNG:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-03-28/europe-s-gas-buyers-can-t-quit-russian-lng

The figures show that EU increased its imports of Russian LNG by 30% during 2022. Now they have a very strange situation. Previously, they used to purchase pipeline gas from Russia at $100 to $200 per thousand cubic meters. Now they are purchasing LNG from the same country, at 3x the original price. Russia is not going to complain anyway, as long as they are getting the payments. And winter was mild during 2022. I don't expect the same for 2023. If winter is harsh, then once again the gas prices will touch record levels achieved during August 2022.

[Argoo]

Another article on the European dependence on Russian LNG:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-03-28/europe-s-gas-buyers-can-t-quit-russian-lng

The figures show that EU increased its imports of Russian LNG by 30% during 2022. Now they have a very strange situation. Previously, they used to purchase pipeline gas from Russia at $100 to $200 per thousand cubic meters. Now they are purchasing LNG from the same country, at 3x the original price. Russia is not going to complain anyway, as long as they are getting the payments. And winter was mild during 2022. I don't expect the same for 2023. If winter is harsh, then once again the gas prices will touch record levels achieved during August 2022.

Until the winter season of 2023-2024, Russia still needs to live. After all, the situation for the Russian economy continues to deteriorate every month. Over the three months of this year, the Russian budget deficit increased to the levels that were planned for the whole of 2023.
Already, even Putin, at a meeting with members of the government, admitted that the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation because of the war could adversely affect the state of affairs in the country's economy. Until autumn, the situation in Russia will worsen many times over.

As for the weather, scientists predict a further rise in temperature on the planet. Apparently, there will be no more severe winters in Europe in the near future.

[DrBeer]

....

Dear Sithara007! Many thanks to you and all the people of India for your support of Ukraine in the destruction of the new brown plague - RASHISM!

India has approved the transfer of several hundred Milan anti-tank systems of various modifications to Ukraine.
There are two extremely important points in this message. And not only the number of Milan ATGMs is striking, but the fact that India decided to transfer them. The country on which puten relies on partnership and cooperation.

[DrBeer]

Let me remind you once again - Chinese traders give information on the Urals - for about 30 dollars, provided that the freight and other expenses are paid by the RUSSIAN side. This condition was established by the Chinese side regarding purchases of "excess oil". China has its informants in the upper echelons of the country's power, and it perfectly understands how many storage facilities Russia has, what real production is and the situation in the oil and gas sector. Therefore, it is easy to manipulate Kremlin criminals, in the area of favorable prices for China.

ESPO is slightly more expensive, but its production and sales volumes are many times lower than those of Urals.

Observing the picture of prices for petroleum products in India, more precisely for derivatives - gasoline and diesel, I am increasingly coming to the opinion that this is an ordinary manipulation of data on the Indian market, so that someone simply earns more by showing the common man an allegedly high purchase price. Thus misleading people who do not want to simply check the data, thereby making huge markups! It happens

Most of the available supply of Urals get scooped up by India and Turkey, leaving hardly anything for China. China imports around 1 million barrels per day through the ESPO pipeline (capacity at 1.6 million barrels per day). The prices are contracted w.r.t the benchmark Brent prices. Supplies that are not sold to China, are transported to other countries through the port of Kozmino. China consumes most of the minor grades, such as Sakhalin Blend, Sokol, Novy Port and Siberian Light.

According to Chinese government data, the average price of Russian crude for the month of 2023 February was $73 per barrel. India gets crude at a much cheaper rate than China, because prices are not tied to long-term contracts.

You are now not very successful trying to wishful thinking.
Let's once again, "in pictures", I'll explain to you if you can't understand
So, until 2022, when Russia staged a new terrorist attack on Ukraine, the picture really looked close to what you described.
A significant part of Urals brand oil was sold to Turkey and India, I agree. But they were not exclusive buyers. Urals was also bought by Europe and other countries. Europe also bought a significant amount of this oil. The price of supplies was regulated by the market, and was significantly higher than the cost of production... And so it was until 2022...
Sanctions against the international terrorist country were precisely aimed at reducing the economic effect from the sale of hydrocarbons, which form almost 50% of Russian income! Restrictions, embargoes and simply refusing to buy resources from terrorist countries gave results.

The EU actually completely refused supplies from Russia. And the "great Fuhrer of Russia" also introduced a ban on the sale of oil to some countries And here we come to the conclusion that you either cannot understand or simply deny it
the oil that went to the European market - it must be put somewhere. There are several options here - either to preserve oil production, or to sell somewhere, because. Russia simply has nowhere to store such volumes of oil! Canning is, in fact, forever abandoning production, tk. Russia does not have the technology to reactivate deposits. Yes, this is a fact - Russia has never been able to develop technologies that provide 50% of budget revenues. Simply put - technologically the rest of the country
So - the only option left is to sell to OTHER buyers. Yes, India has increased the purchase, this is a fact. But India does not buy ALL the surplus oil, and Turkey does not buy either. Urals started buying China, it's easy to check, it's a fact, whether you like it or not.
But China always uses the situation for its own benefit, and the interests of Russia, for China, come last. Therefore, reality looks like I described. At the same time, China can officially say anything, perhaps acting in the same way as the Indian leadership, publicly announcing a very high price in order to continue to squeeze money out of gullible citizens.
But you must admit - it's stupid to believe in the price of $73 if it's $50 on the market and no one wants to buy

[slapper]

Let me remind you once again - Chinese traders give information on the Urals - for about 30 dollars, provided that the freight and other expenses are paid by the RUSSIAN side. This condition was established by the Chinese side regarding purchases of "excess oil". China has its informants in the upper echelons of the country's power, and it perfectly understands how many storage facilities Russia has, what real production is and the situation in the oil and gas sector. Therefore, it is easy to manipulate Kremlin criminals, in the area of favorable prices for China.

ESPO is slightly more expensive, but its production and sales volumes are many times lower than those of Urals.

Observing the picture of prices for petroleum products in India, more precisely for derivatives - gasoline and diesel, I am increasingly coming to the opinion that this is an ordinary manipulation of data on the Indian market, so that someone simply earns more by showing the common man an allegedly high purchase price. Thus misleading people who do not want to simply check the data, thereby making huge markups! It happens

Most of the available supply of Urals get scooped up by India and Turkey, leaving hardly anything for China. China imports around 1 million barrels per day through the ESPO pipeline (capacity at 1.6 million barrels per day). The prices are contracted w.r.t the benchmark Brent prices. Supplies that are not sold to China, are transported to other countries through the port of Kozmino. China consumes most of the minor grades, such as Sakhalin Blend, Sokol, Novy Port and Siberian Light.

According to Chinese government data, the average price of Russian crude for the month of 2023 February was $73 per barrel. India gets crude at a much cheaper rate than China, because prices are not tied to long-term contracts.

You are now not very successful trying to wishful thinking.
Let's once again, "in pictures", I'll explain to you if you can't understand
So, until 2022, when Russia staged a new terrorist attack on Ukraine, the picture really looked close to what you described.
A significant part of Urals brand oil was sold to Turkey and India, I agree. But they were not exclusive buyers. Urals was also bought by Europe and other countries. Europe also bought a significant amount of this oil. The price of supplies was regulated by the market, and was significantly higher than the cost of production... And so it was until 2022...
Sanctions against the international terrorist country were precisely aimed at reducing the economic effect from the sale of hydrocarbons, which form almost 50% of Russian income! Restrictions, embargoes and simply refusing to buy resources from terrorist countries gave results.

The EU actually completely refused supplies from Russia. And the "great Fuhrer of Russia" also introduced a ban on the sale of oil to some countries And here we come to the conclusion that you either cannot understand or simply deny it
the oil that went to the European market - it must be put somewhere. There are several options here - either to preserve oil production, or to sell somewhere, because. Russia simply has nowhere to store such volumes of oil! Canning is, in fact, forever abandoning production, tk. Russia does not have the technology to reactivate deposits. Yes, this is a fact - Russia has never been able to develop technologies that provide 50% of budget revenues. Simply put - technologically the rest of the country
So - the only option left is to sell to OTHER buyers. Yes, India has increased the purchase, this is a fact. But India does not buy ALL the surplus oil, and Turkey does not buy either. Urals started buying China, it's easy to check, it's a fact, whether you like it or not.
But China always uses the situation for its own benefit, and the interests of Russia, for China, come last. Therefore, reality looks like I described. At the same time, China can officially say anything, perhaps acting in the same way as the Indian leadership, publicly announcing a very high price in order to continue to squeeze money out of gullible citizens.
But you must admit - it's stupid to believe in the price of $73 if it's $50 on the market and no one wants to buy

Yo, my friend, I feel you tryna break down the whole situation for me, but check it, you're missing the forest for the trees. We're all just regular folks, caught up in this never-ending back-and-forth between supply and demand. Market forces are like waves in the ocean, and we're just tryna ride 'em out. Like my man Keynes said, "In the long run, we're all dead." So why trip over oil prices when there's so much more to life?

Like, have you ever thought about what life's really about? Stacking cash and power, or finding inner peace? And what's that got to do with oil? That's the stuff that keeps me up at night, for real.

But hey, I ain't all doom and gloom. I love a good laugh, too. Peep this – an oil trader walks into a bar, and orders a crude oil on the rocks. Bartender's like, "My bad, we only got the refined stuff here." Alright, maybe not my best joke, but you get me. Let's just chill and not take life too seriously, aight?

[DrBeer]

Yo, my friend, I feel you tryna break down the whole situation for me, but check it, you're missing the forest for the trees. We're all just regular folks, caught up in this never-ending back-and-forth between supply and demand. Market forces are like waves in the ocean, and we're just tryna ride 'em out. Like my man Keynes said, "In the long run, we're all dead." So why trip over oil prices when there's so much more to life?

Like, have you ever thought about what life's really about? Stacking cash and power, or finding inner peace? And what's that got to do with oil? That's the stuff that keeps me up at night, for real.

But hey, I ain't all doom and gloom. I love a good laugh, too. Peep this – an oil trader walks into a bar, and orders a crude oil on the rocks. Bartender's like, "My bad, we only got the refined stuff here." Alright, maybe not my best joke, but you get me. Let's just chill and not take life too seriously, aight?

Thanks for the positive response

In fact, it makes absolutely no difference to me who trades what, who is of what faith, etc. I absolutely agree - life is much more interesting than "picking" in other people's problems.
I just don’t like it when people stupidly and primitively lie, and I always try to “poke their nose” into the truth, and not let other people fool their brains, who often “take their word”.
Especially when this lie is intended to justify and support such bastard regimes as the Kremlin, which caused the death of hundreds of thousands of people in my country. Just because "they have oil and they are great."

Thanks again for the positive feedback