Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[DrBeer]

There's too much oil. Production cuts are no longer helping OPEC+
Brent is getting cheaper, Saudi Arabia's attempt to help itself and Russia, despite the conflict over the Indian market, has so far failed. The embargo and price ceiling on Russian oil is reaching its goal.

https://www.dw.com/ru/nefti-sliskom-mnogo-sokrasenie-dobyci-uze-ne-pomogaet-opek/a-65839606

Russia will extend its voluntary production cut by 500,000 bpd until the end of 2024, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said after the meeting, Interfax reported. The reduction will be carried out against the production level agreed on June 4, Novak said.

And this is almost 11 billion dollars of irreversibly lost money ! Given the forecasts and the real prices at which the Urals are bought by India and China - grocery cards in Russia - reality

No one even remembers about gas, because the price has dropped to the level where the Russian propaganda just shut up with his morbid fantasies 

[Argoo]

P.S. Reality check: How is the defence of Bakhmut going? 

On June 5, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an operation to further liberate the territory of Ukraine from Russian invaders. The first stage of the counter-offensive operation even exceeded the expectations of the American side: the Ukrainian military managed to break through the mined areas and advance 5-10 km in several sections of the long front.
Source:
https://www.dialog.ua/war/275058_1686145340

Fearing further success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian troops blew up the Kakhovskaya HPP, which was mined back in the fall of 2022, while committing the largest terrorist act in recent decades: irreparable damage was done to the ecology of Ukraine, there was a threat of flooding about 80 settlements. Apparently, this will be the subject of another Hague Tribunal. By these actions, the invaders also flooded their defense positions on the left bank of the Dnieper, and also made it impossible to further supply water to the Crimean peninsula, because the Kakhovka reservoir located above the HPP, from where the water was taken, is rapidly shallowing and disappearing. But this attack will not stop any Ukrainian offensive.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine also went on the offensive near Bakhmut: over the past day, the Ukrainian military managed to advance more than 1 km in various sectors of the front.

Today, June 7, the commander of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky told how Ukrainian assault units are repulsing the enemy near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. He stated that the defense forces continue to move forward on the flanks, the enemy is losing ground near Bakhmut. There is a high probability that in the near future Bakhmut will be surrounded by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the remaining Russian troops in it will be destroyed.

[kaseygriffin]

The shift away from Russian oil has been taking place in Europe for several months now, as countries in the region reduce their purchases of Russian oil and increase their purchases of oil from West Africa, the United States, and other suppliers. Germany, which imports Russian oil through the northern branch of the Druzhba line, has significantly reduced its imports of Russian oil compared to before the war, thereby reducing its dependence on Russian oil to 12% from 35%. However, finding new sources of oil comes with losses. The European race to buy oil from non-Russian suppliers has pushed prices of high-quality crude from suppliers from South Africa to Azerbaijan to multi-year highs. Once China lifts its strict anti-COVID measures—the factor that has curbed oil demand in the past—Europe will face greater competition to buy oil.

[Sithara007]

The shift away from Russian oil has been taking place in Europe for several months now, as countries in the region reduce their purchases of Russian oil and increase their purchases of oil from West Africa, the United States, and other suppliers. Germany, which imports Russian oil through the northern branch of the Druzhba line, has significantly reduced its imports of Russian oil compared to before the war, thereby reducing its dependence on Russian oil to 12% from 35%. However, finding new sources of oil comes with losses. The European race to buy oil from non-Russian suppliers has pushed prices of high-quality crude from suppliers from South Africa to Azerbaijan to multi-year highs. Once China lifts its strict anti-COVID measures—the factor that has curbed oil demand in the past—Europe will face greater competition to buy oil.

I don't think that South Africa exports any crude to the European Union. You maybe talking about Saudi Arabia. It is true that Saudi Arabia is one of the countries that is taking advantage of this situation. They are selling their crude oil at heavy premium to the Europeans. On the other end of the spectrum, India and China are also benefitting, since they are receiving cheaper crude from Russia. Americans are benefitting as well, since they are also exporting crude oil to the EU. Losing parties are Russia (since they are forced to sell crude at a discount) and EU (forced to buy crude at a premium).

[DrBeer]

The shift away from Russian oil has been taking place in Europe for several months now, as countries in the region reduce their purchases of Russian oil and increase their purchases of oil from West Africa, the United States, and other suppliers. Germany, which imports Russian oil through the northern branch of the Druzhba line, has significantly reduced its imports of Russian oil compared to before the war, thereby reducing its dependence on Russian oil to 12% from 35%. However, finding new sources of oil comes with losses. The European race to buy oil from non-Russian suppliers has pushed prices of high-quality crude from suppliers from South Africa to Azerbaijan to multi-year highs. Once China lifts its strict anti-COVID measures—the factor that has curbed oil demand in the past—Europe will face greater competition to buy oil.

I don't think that South Africa exports any crude to the European Union. You maybe talking about Saudi Arabia. It is true that Saudi Arabia is one of the countries that is taking advantage of this situation. They are selling their crude oil at heavy premium to the Europeans. On the other end of the spectrum, India and China are also benefitting, since they are receiving cheaper crude from Russia. Americans are benefitting as well, since they are also exporting crude oil to the EU. Losing parties are Russia (since they are forced to sell crude at a discount) and EU (forced to buy crude at a premium).

The oil situation will change, as will the gas situation. Look where it has fallen. Plus OPEC+ openly declares that there is VERY much oil. The way out is either to drastically reduce production, or believe in a miracle. But to drastically reduce production is not an easy question, there are problems ranging from "physical" to financial. That's why you can't just turn on the oil tap.

For russia it is a loss of real income even from today's minuscule selling price. The "measures" taken by russia, give them today in the most optimistic calculation about 12 billion dollars of losses per year. This is a huge amount for russia today, when 30+% now goes to war, and the budget has lost about 40% of foreign exchange earnings.

For the OPEC+ members, a net reduction would also bring down their revenues. The problem is that until China gives a sign that its economy is recovering - there will be no growth in oil demand ! And judging by what is happening in China - its economy is still far from recovery or at least a positive trend.

[Sithara007]

The oil situation will change, as will the gas situation. Look where it has fallen. Plus OPEC+ openly declares that there is VERY much oil. The way out is either to drastically reduce production, or believe in a miracle. But to drastically reduce production is not an easy question, there are problems ranging from "physical" to financial. That's why you can't just turn on the oil tap.

For russia it is a loss of real income even from today's minuscule selling price. The "measures" taken by russia, give them today in the most optimistic calculation about 12 billion dollars of losses per year. This is a huge amount for russia today, when 30+% now goes to war, and the budget has lost about 40% of foreign exchange earnings.

For the OPEC+ members, a net reduction would also bring down their revenues. The problem is that until China gives a sign that its economy is recovering - there will be no growth in oil demand ! And judging by what is happening in China - its economy is still far from recovery or at least a positive trend.

The problem for OPEC+ is that the demand for oil hasn't yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. This is due to a number of reasons, and employees preferring to work from home and hybrid system of work is one of the causes. And China's slow economic recovery is another reason. Oil producers don't have any option other than to reduce their production. Else the crude oil prices will go below the $70 per barrel level. Even now, with all the production cuts and reduced output from Russia, oil has struggled to move past $80 per barrel since April this year.

[woez]

The global oil market is affected by a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions in major economies. Economic recovery and growth in many countries, not just China, can contribute to an increase in demand for oil because economic trends can change from time to time, and different sources can provide different perspectives on China's prospects for recovery or growth.

[pooya87]

The problem for OPEC+ is that the demand for oil hasn't yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. This is due to a number of reasons, and employees preferring to work from home and hybrid system of work is one of the causes. And China's slow economic recovery is another reason. Oil producers don't have any option other than to reduce their production. Else the crude oil prices will go below the $70 per barrel level. Even now, with all the production cuts and reduced output from Russia, oil has struggled to move past $80 per barrel since April this year.

Part of the reasons for the decisions that were made in OPEC to reduce production has always been to manipulate the market by changing the supply hence keeping the price at a level that they want. It's not new either, as long as these countries were exporting oil internationally they did things like this to dictate the price (as much as they can).

[nathan_tek]

A Russian gas ban could be a problem for Germany. 60% of all their gas comes from Russia. Now they have closed their last 3 nuclear plants and they probably need more energy.

[DrBeer]

A Russian gas ban could be a problem for Germany. 60% of all their gas comes from Russia. Now they have closed their last 3 nuclear plants and they probably need more energy.

Excuse me - are you really not aware of what's going on?

Gernamia has almost completely replaced gas supplies from Russia with supplies from alternative and adequate suppliers. Now Russia simply burns gas on the border with Finland, which previously came to Germany. Produces, wastes resources and ... burns It's not Germany that seems to have a problem.

The same problem with oil. Now India and China have been buying Russian oil at huge discounts for some time. And India, for example, refines it, taking it away from sanctions and sells the finished product, gasoline, to the EU. But this scheme has been uncovered and punishments await the participants of this scheme...

[Renampun]

Russia is now contributing to 42% of all the crude oil imports to India. An average of 1.96 million barrels per day was imported last month, which is greater than the combined imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and the United States of America.

https://www.outlookindia.com/national/india-s-oil-import-from-russia-continues-to-increase-news-291981

The EXW cost of crude oil imported from various nations at Indian ports are as follows:

Russia: $68.21 per barrel
Iraq: $77.77 per barrel
Saudi Arabia: $86.96 per barrel

Russian and Iraqi prices are as expected. But Saudi prices are much higher than the benchmark crude levels. It is clear that Saudi Arabia is trying to over-price it's crude exports, taking advantage of the prevailing political tensions.

Russia and India are likely to further improve their relationship, given that 40% of India's defense comes from Russia and resources like oil, iron and many others also come from Russia and the price India gets is cheaper than what the global market offers. , that's why India is more interested in importing resources from Russia.

The relationship between India and Russia is a profitable relationship, besides Russia needs India as their trading partner to earn money, India also needs Russian resources to support their economy. It is estimated that this trade relationship will continue to improve in the next year given that America and its allies are reluctant to impose sanctions on India.

[DrBeer]

The oil situation will change, as will the gas situation. Look where it has fallen. Plus OPEC+ openly declares that there is VERY much oil. The way out is either to drastically reduce production, or believe in a miracle. But to drastically reduce production is not an easy question, there are problems ranging from "physical" to financial. That's why you can't just turn on the oil tap.

For russia it is a loss of real income even from today's minuscule selling price. The "measures" taken by russia, give them today in the most optimistic calculation about 12 billion dollars of losses per year. This is a huge amount for russia today, when 30+% now goes to war, and the budget has lost about 40% of foreign exchange earnings.

For the OPEC+ members, a net reduction would also bring down their revenues. The problem is that until China gives a sign that its economy is recovering - there will be no growth in oil demand ! And judging by what is happening in China - its economy is still far from recovery or at least a positive trend.

The problem for OPEC+ is that the demand for oil hasn't yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. This is due to a number of reasons, and employees preferring to work from home and hybrid system of work is one of the causes. And China's slow economic recovery is another reason. Oil producers don't have any option other than to reduce their production. Else the crude oil prices will go below the $70 per barrel level. Even now, with all the production cuts and reduced output from Russia, oil has struggled to move past $80 per barrel since April this year.

That's the problem:
1. The hope for growth, or rather the rescue of the Chinese economy
2. Trying to "play" the market by reducing production.

Expecting a solution to the first point is pointless, the indicators show that the Chinese economy is going down, and it is almost impossible to stop this process. The decline in China's industrial production is no longer related to the Covid implications, but more to the real problems of the real economy, huge debts, and the infringement of private business.

The second way is nothing more than a temporary attempt to raise the price. But we will not be able to stay afloat in this way - we need to reduce markedly, which will also lead to significant losses, or rather - shortfall in profits for the suppliers themselves. And we are not even taking into account the difficulties of preservation (this is the only option for a noticeable reduction in oil production).  And we are talking about the "prosperous" UAE. But for example for russia, this will not solve anything, it is already heading towards economic ruin, and attempts to come up with something will only worsen its condition. And this is not my "preconceived opinion," this is a statement of reality.

[Bialke]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?

Let me throw your facts and numbers away!

I say you are buying the same oil and gas + paying more for it.

I had a sports coach and a very clumsy sports collegue. For my collegues my coach had status 100, and my clumsy collegue status 2. So as the clumsy sports collegue was thirsty he was drinking ice tea. Everbody was laughing because he was drinking so unhealthy. Nobody thought about drinking it, he would offering it for free. So my coach took this ice tea, rebranded it, and without offering it, my collegues wanted to buy it, two times, three times, more times what the worth was. My collegues are EUROPE. (It is not that simple, but I hope you get it.)

Your numbers and your facts are red herings you are believing. Did you measure it? (No, this is not possible. So you have to trust. Who?)

It is the same like the gold scam. There is so much gold in african soil, you can bring the OZ to 20 USD. Trust me, information control is THE thing. In the hight of discussion to leave FIAT and go to gold in the pandemic, people just put 320,000 tons gold in Uganda's soil here, and 320,000 tons there...

https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/boerse/news/id_92327452/31-millionen-tonnen-unmengen-an-golderz-in-uganda-gefunden.html

The same with the diamond thing. And that blockchain scammers.


 

[LoyceV]

I noticed a flaw in the energy policy in several European countries: last year, they set limits on the use of air conditioning, for instance 27^oC. Yesterday, I was in an uncomfortably warm shop, but at that moment, energy prices were negative. That means solar and wind power produced more energy than could be used, which would be a very good moment to turn the air conditioning in shops to sub zero temperatures. By doing so, they'll need less cooling later on, when it comes from gas fired power plants.
As far as I know, this isn't even allowed, while instead it should be required.

[DrBeer]

Russia and India are likely to further improve their relationship, given that 40% of India's defense comes from Russia and resources like oil, iron and many others also come from Russia and the price India gets is cheaper than what the global market offers. , that's why India is more interested in importing resources from Russia.

The relationship between India and Russia is a profitable relationship, besides Russia needs India as their trading partner to earn money, India also needs Russian resources to support their economy. It is estimated that this trade relationship will continue to improve in the next year given that America and its allies are reluctant to impose sanctions on India.

Excuse me, when you make such statements, do you never study the REAL state of affairs beforehand?

Just a bit of headlines, from 2018 to today:

2018 
- India explained its rejection of Russian weapons in favor of American ones
India is cooperating intensively with the United States in arms supplies because of the difficulties in the military-technical partnership with Russia, sources in the Indian government told The Times of India.
....

2023
- Bloomberg: India has suspended purchases of Russian arms Supplies of Russian arms to India have been interrupted due to the inability of the two sides to agree on payment methods, Bloomberg co reported, citing Indian officials familiar with the matter.

- India refused to buy Russian arms and froze further talks on planes and helicopters
Russia continues to lose ground in the arms market to India, which has been the Kremlin's biggest arms buyer since Soviet times and in recent years has secured more than 20 percent of Rosoboronexport's orders.

- Russia continues to lose ground in the arms market to India, which has been the Kremlin's biggest arms buyer since Soviet times and in recent years has provided 20 percent of Rosoboronexport's orders.

After rejecting contracts for Su-30MKI fighters and T-90 tanks and then freezing talks on the purchase of Ka-226T helicopters, India responded "no" to another Russian proposal - the construction of submarines based on the Amur-1650 platform, an export version of the Project 677 Lada submarines

- Russia was supposed to deliver two more S-400 divisions to India in 2024, but this will be postponed for an unknown period.

By the way - why was India going to buy completely fake S-400 systems? As the events of recent months have shown - they are not capable of protecting either Moscow or other strategic facilities. Corruption? To steal more taxes from the people of India?

Going back to your post, it is correct to write - "Once upon a time, Russia WAS the largest arms supplier to India"

[be.open]

Gernamia has almost completely replaced gas supplies from Russia with supplies from alternative and adequate suppliers. Now Russia simply burns gas on the border with Finland, which previously came to Germany. Produces, wastes resources and ... burns It's not Germany that seems to have a problem.

Looking at the latest statistics report on the energy-intensive industry, it doesn't look like Germany has solved the problem of replacing Russian pipeline gas. In short, things are not going well.

[nathan_tek]

A Russian gas ban could be a problem for Germany. 60% of all their gas comes from Russia. Now they have closed their last 3 nuclear plants and they probably need more energy.

Excuse me - are you really not aware of what's going on?

Gernamia has almost completely replaced gas supplies from Russia with supplies from alternative and adequate suppliers. Now Russia simply burns gas on the border with Finland, which previously came to Germany. Produces, wastes resources and ... burns It's not Germany that seems to have a problem.

The same problem with oil. Now India and China have been buying Russian oil at huge discounts for some time. And India, for example, refines it, taking it away from sanctions and sells the finished product, gasoline, to the EU. But this scheme has been uncovered and punishments await the participants of this scheme...

I read from a country that has to burn his gas, but couldn't remember that it was Russia.

[Sithara007]

I noticed a flaw in the energy policy in several European countries: last year, they set limits on the use of air conditioning, for instance 27^oC. Yesterday, I was in an uncomfortably warm shop, but at that moment, energy prices were negative. That means solar and wind power produced more energy than could be used, which would be a very good moment to turn the air conditioning in shops to sub zero temperatures. By doing so, they'll need less cooling later on, when it comes from gas fired power plants.
As far as I know, this isn't even allowed, while instead it should be required.

LOL.. so this is what is going on in the European Union. The federal government will decide thermostat reading of your air-conditioner. And then some of the posters here claim that everything is well in the EU. Europeans deserve every bit of this. Their aversion to the cleanest and lest-polluting type of energy available (nuclear) is illogical. They will burn lignite, coal and gas to generate electricity, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths as a result of air pollution. They will set up solar and wind farms across thousands of square miles of land, blighting the scenery. But they will never allow the nuclear power plants to operate. What a bunch of lunatics!

[pooya87]

I noticed a flaw in the energy policy in several European countries: last year, they set limits on the use of air conditioning, for instance 27^oC. Yesterday, I was in an uncomfortably warm shop, but at that moment, energy prices were negative. That means solar and wind power produced more energy than could be used, which would be a very good moment to turn the air conditioning in shops to sub zero temperatures. By doing so, they'll need less cooling later on, when it comes from gas fired power plants.
As far as I know, this isn't even allowed, while instead it should be required.

LOL.. so this is what is going on in the European Union. The federal government will decide thermostat reading of your air-conditioner. And then some of the posters here claim that everything is well in the EU. Europeans deserve every bit of this. Their aversion to the cleanest and lest-polluting type of energy available (nuclear) is illogical. They will burn lignite, coal and gas to generate electricity, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths as a result of air pollution. They will set up solar and wind farms across thousands of square miles of land, blighting the scenery. But they will never allow the nuclear power plants to operate. What a bunch of lunatics!

The funny part is that over a year ago when I brought up the energy crisis in Europe and how the regimes are enforcing temperature laws certain trolls whom we all know started attacking me and insulting me with accusations that I'm repeating "Putin's propaganda"
Even funnier is that they repeat the same behavior today whenever I start another discussion about a different outcome of the energy crisis in Europe.

[be.open]

Germany Warns of Industry Shutdown If Russian Gas Stops Flowing

Germany may be forced to wind down or even switch off industrial capacity if Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia isn’t extended after it expires at the end of next year, according to Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

What a twist.