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Author Topic: 📯📍Rollbit | 2025/26 Champions League Pool | ⚽️ Discussion | ~$15,000 prizes!  (Read 40513 times)
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April 10, 2025, 09:43:59 AM
 #3701

Congratulations for the 46 points you earn. It seems that only you believe Inter Milan will win this match, because I feel it is impossible for Bayern to lose at home, even when the score is 1-1, I am sure Bayern will score one more goal to make them win in this 1st leg, but Inter is too good this time.
Maybe your prediction is almost the same as mine about the Bayern - Inter match... bad luck to know another penalty, the previous round was also penalized.

However, seeing Real Madrid lose badly to Arsenal is the most surprising, but Real is still Real, in the 2nd leg even though their job is harder but the situation can change a lot.
Everyone was almost surprised by the result because we were behind by so many goals, in leg 2 maybe something will change, we know this team can turn it around.

I feel quite happy to still be able to get points in pot B.
Like you, will stay firmly in first place. Grin

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April 10, 2025, 11:46:31 AM
 #3702

but nevertheless Real is objectively bad.

Yeah even bookies gave them pretty high odds to win, thats how big the bookies favour Arsenal over Real Madrid but seriously losing 3-0 without scoring a single goal was totally unexpected from a team like Real Madrid. Its not like Arsenal is the best team in EPL like now so thats kinda weird. Anyway Real Madrid on the 2nd leg is gonna be a beast, not sure if they would qualify but we are looking at 2nd leg with atleast 5 goals in total though

I looked at the odds for Real Madrid to win about 12 hours ago and they seemed strange to me - I think the odds were like 1.75. Considering that Arsenal can afford to lose 1-0 or even 2-0, to play at the Santiago Bernabeu, I thought that was generous. Apparently I wasn't the only one who thought so and now the odds are 1.69 which is still very generous in my opinion. I myself say that Real is weak, but specifically here they are underestimated.

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April 10, 2025, 11:51:41 AM
 #3703

@notblox1 miracle is betting on Aston Villa, I bet you a lot of people doing it Wink

I need some crazy odds and these are among the best ones on offer, but I just don't see how Villa can get anything out of this game.
PSG is playing so well, they destroyed Liverpool in both games, even if something crazy happened (like a red card for Donnarumma in 5th minute and a penalty for Villa), I'd still expect them not to lose the game.

I'm personally skipping this, there are some good options on the table that are more likely to happen IMO.

To be fair, Liverpool was much better in second leg, and could have also won the game, but PSG deserves this 100%. Bookies make them #1 favorite and rightly so. Villa defended and even at 2-1 it seems they tried to keep the goal difference to bring back to England but PSG made them pay.

So I ended the game with 0 points and take the 5% penalty. So bummed out by this round man!! Congrats to @swogerino for killing it!

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April 10, 2025, 12:45:34 PM
 #3704

~

Don't ask me how these things work, the odds of a penalty in most games are roughly the same as I could see, just under 4/1. I suppose bookies factor in money on the markets here, as I know that's always affected odds as well with risk adjustment mechanisms kicking in.

In any case, no penalties so far, I think I've got a few points here and there on those, can't remember, but would be nice to see someone challenge swogerino for points!

But some crazy results. The Arsenal - Real Madrid surprise could be all about the Declan Rice free kicks. Both free kicks were insane. First one with unbelievable spin and the second one with impressive pace right into the upper angle. Never easy to score a free kick on the goalkeepers side. You either hit it perfectly or it is wasted. That one was crazy.

It is not over yet, but if Real Madrid comes back from this, I don't know what to say anymore. But I believe the second game is going to be more exciting than some people think.

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April 10, 2025, 12:55:04 PM
Merited by igebotz (1)
 #3705

Brace direct free kick goals in front of Mbappe with zero free kick goal in his career must be very painful - I've never seen those beautiful powerful free kick goals for a long time since David Luiz free kick against Liverpool.
Mbappe gawks at Declan Rice's free kick. Grin Rice did it twice that's what's so great.
Ohh well I remember David Luiz's powerful free kick.

Tonight I am feasting on Barcelona and PSG double combo.
Finally didn't miss last night, unlike the day before we were disappointed.

Yes, Rice scored two goals from free kicks and according to Ancelotti this is the first time in his career. Miracles happen this time against Real Madrid. But overall it's stupid (for me as a Real Madrid fan) to complain because Real Madrid have had an uneven season and they've often failed. It would be unfair if they ended up winning everything. If you look at other teams, they are all also far from ideal (I can’t name a single worthy one), but nevertheless Real is objectively bad.
A lot of praise for Rice's free-kick.
I feel it's not so bad about Real Madrid they can still avenge yesterday's defeat, maybe the culmination of who qualifies, but it's really hard just in my own heart there is still a chance for Madrid.
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April 10, 2025, 02:09:06 PM
Merited by igebotz (1)
 #3706

Hey fellas, just wanted to say, owing to the number of matches, the freebet distributions will be as follow:

Pot A: a combined QF 1st and 2nd legs, and a combined SF 1st and 2nd legs + final. Meaning, there will be 2 more freebets for Pot A.
Pot B: combined QF MD13 and MD14, combined SF MD15 and MD16, and a final MD17. Meaning, there will be 3 more freebets for Pot B.

Great football, great results, disappointing pool performance for me here. Haha.

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April 10, 2025, 03:37:44 PM
 #3707

It's great to solve all question in first game already and now our trip to Dortmund will be not nervous. Perfect performance yesterday, excpet that moment when Rapinha stolen goal from Cubarsi and almost didn't got into offside Cheesy.
PSG did big job today, that late 3rd goal left very little chance for Aston Villa in 2nd leg.
I managed to keep 1st place in Superbru pool and reached 11th place in Pot B. I'm getting stable 10 points in each round in average, but that's not enough if I want to reach rewarded spot.

Mbappe gawks at Declan Rice's free kick. Grin Rice did it twice that's what's so great.
Ohh well I remember David Luiz's powerful free kick.
LOL that was moment when even opponent had to admire what Rce did. I actually miss times when goals from free kick wasn't that rare as we have now.

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April 10, 2025, 08:23:42 PM
 #3708

-snip

I looked at the odds for Real Madrid to win about 12 hours ago and they seemed strange to me - I think the odds were like 1.75. Considering that Arsenal can afford to lose 1-0 or even 2-0, to play at the Santiago Bernabeu, I thought that was generous. Apparently I wasn't the only one who thought so and now the odds are 1.69 which is still very generous in my opinion. I myself say that Real is weak, but specifically here they are underestimated.

This is for the 2nd leg? dang bookies they dont even give Real Madrid over 2x odds, it smells like a trap for me though but if it is over 2x then I would be taking it.

Anyway, Arteta is definitely not the type to sit back, park the bus and let Real Madrid score. Most teams would probably learn it by now that if Real is behind on the 1st leg and you let them score first on the 2nd leg, waves of goals are going to come afterward. The best case scenario is to score even more goals for Arsenal to crush Real Madrid but playing in Santiago Bernabeu is a huge headache

 
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April 11, 2025, 06:40:48 AM
 #3709

It is not over yet, but if Real Madrid comes back from this, I don't know what to say anymore. But I believe the second game is going to be more exciting than some people think.

Madrid are kings of comeback for a reason, they'll be plotting how they'll turn it all around at the Santiago Bernabéu. Arsenal shocked everyone especially as the first half was goal less so no one would had imagined them going 3 nil up in the second half. But lets be honest, without Courtois at the post, Arsenal should have scored more than 3 goals. He was brilliant but the Rice free kick were just astonishing.

The second leg is going to be a blockbuster and one match not to miss. Something tells me, we might be getting the champion of this season tournament from this feature as I don't think any team can stop Arsenal or Madrid when they come out of this fixture on top. Not many people believed that Arsenal could defeat Madrid and that's what makes their victory surprising.

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April 11, 2025, 09:17:44 PM
 #3710

Great football, great results, disappointing pool performance for me here. Haha.
I hate that -5% penalty and I experienced it two times in this pool  Angry
If I won many points than I would not care much about that, but now I need to perform miracles in next round.
I think I still have mathematical chances to win something in the end of the season, but it wont be easy.

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April 11, 2025, 09:44:56 PM
 #3711

Looks like Pot B might be over for me because I just checked the leaderboard now and I'm in high 50s and double digits but someone is already at 171?  Woah.

The window is shrinking with every round and now more than ever—myself and other people in the bottom half of the table need to start apeing into high odds options and luckily win otherwise, it's game over. Not quitting till the finals though.

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April 11, 2025, 10:03:35 PM
 #3712

Looks like Pot B might be over for me because I just checked the leaderboard now and I'm in high 50s and double digits but someone is already at 171?  Woah.

Thats a huge lead and 2nd place is on 139 so thats around 31 points difference. Well if we check his scores throughout the rounds, he is indeed pretty stable. I guess this is another way to play pot B, get 1 huge lead then get decent stable amount of points throughout the rest of it.

I personally dont think any of the current top 5-6 will take any risky bet until the end so if Strongkored could atleast get 20-25 points for the remaining 4 rounds then he would be staying on top

The window is shrinking with every round and now more than ever—myself and other people in the bottom half of the table need to start apeing into high odds options and luckily win otherwise, it's game over. Not quitting till the finals though.

Well the game is pretty much over unless you are in top 10 right now. The rest of us will only play to win the extra free bets though

 
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April 11, 2025, 10:35:31 PM
 #3713

~Snipped

Thats a huge lead and 2nd place is on 139 so thats around 31 points difference. Well if we check his scores throughout the rounds, he is indeed pretty stable. I guess this is another way to play pot B, get 1 huge lead then get decent stable amount of points throughout the rest of it.

I personally dont think any of the current top 5-6 will take any risky bet until the end so if Strongkored could atleast get 20-25 points for the remaining 4 rounds then he would be staying on top



Those in top don't need to take riskier bets to risk that -5% if they're wrong. I'm banking on that.
~Snipped

Well the game is pretty much over unless you are in top 10 right now. The rest of us will only play to win the extra free bets though

Ya, it seems so. But I'm inclined to take 2-3 riskier bets and just putting more points on it. Got 6+ odds on that Barcelona and if I had max it out at 4 points, that would've been over 25 points from that game alone. If I get like that for the remainder of the gap, it should cover some gap and I have nothing to lose at this point.

Even if I'll go out, I want to go out fighting.

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April 12, 2025, 07:32:20 AM
 #3714

Madrid are kings of comeback for a reason, they'll be plotting how they'll turn it all around at the Santiago Bernabéu. Arsenal shocked everyone especially as the first half was goal less so no one would had imagined them going 3 nil up in the second half. But lets be honest, without Courtois at the post, Arsenal should have scored more than 3 goals. He was brilliant but the Rice free kick were just astonishing.
Madrid had made the most surprising comeback in the UCL of 2021-22 season against Man City. And they usually have the history of making a comeback in several matches by surprising the fans. But I think we won't see anything like that at this time. Madrid would have conceded at least two more goals without the great saves from Courtois. Arsenal might play in the super defensive mode in the next match.

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April 12, 2025, 09:34:34 AM
 #3715

Those in top don't need to take riskier bets to risk that -5% if they're wrong. I'm banking on that.
I think that is the best strategy to avoid penalties, because chasing big points is not easy. I tried to see all the participant's point history, on average only 1-3 MD can get big points, after that if  continue with the big point strategy mostly ruin the position, so continuing to divide 10 stakes into many choices opens up opportunities to get points, but still nothing is certain, 4MD will still determine the future.

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April 12, 2025, 07:17:27 PM
 #3716

Those in top don't need to take riskier bets to risk that -5% if they're wrong. I'm banking on that.
I think that is the best strategy to avoid penalties, because chasing big points is not easy. I tried to see all the participant's point history, on average only 1-3 MD can get big points, after that if  continue with the big point strategy mostly ruin the position, so continuing to divide 10 stakes into many choices opens up opportunities to get points, but still nothing is certain, 4MD will still determine the future.

Imo, not necessarily. We are in the end-game right now and I think it's the time to take big risks because there's almost nothing to lose anymore. Even if you take those minor points wins and avoid the -5% penalty, it won't get you anywhere near top 10. It is only those at the top with something to lose that can't take the -5% penalty risk.

I'm just going to yolo it at this point.

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April 12, 2025, 07:45:06 PM
 #3717

Those in top don't need to take riskier bets to risk that -5% if they're wrong. I'm banking on that.
I think that is the best strategy to avoid penalties, because chasing big points is not easy. I tried to see all the participant's point history, on average only 1-3 MD can get big points, after that if  continue with the big point strategy mostly ruin the position, so continuing to divide 10 stakes into many choices opens up opportunities to get points, but still nothing is certain, 4MD will still determine the future.

I have gone from 4 consecutive weeks with -5% on each to a whopping 46 points during this last match day so the surprise results can boost your position if you are outside the prize points and you have got nothing to lose. By doing so I am still in the game now and those who have played safe risk to get overtaken by me or anyone else hitting on surprise results and finding one or two of them correctly. So playing it safe is not the way to go most likely especially now that very few match days are left, the real hit is if anyone of us is able to hit these surprise results like Bayern vs Inter game, it is all in there, the ones who get it right can significantly jump positions in the standings in this point in time.

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April 12, 2025, 09:22:55 PM
 #3718


I have gone from 4 consecutive weeks with -5% on each to a whopping 46 points during this last match day so the surprise results can boost your position if you are outside the prize points and you have got nothing to lose. By doing so I am still in the game now and those who have played safe risk to get overtaken by me or anyone else hitting on surprise results and finding one or two of them correctly. So playing it safe is not the way to go most likely especially now that very few match days are left, the real hit is if anyone of us is able to hit these surprise results like Bayern vs Inter game, it is all in there, the ones who get it right can significantly jump positions in the standings in this point in time.

That's my point obviously. My only regret is that I realized it lately. Those people at the top only got there because they were taking irrational bets from early-mid game. For people like me in the 20s, it would be the only way to cut the gap to the bare minimum or even rank up to top 5. The time to play it safe is over.

Goodluck to everyone in future rounds.

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April 13, 2025, 10:42:54 AM
 #3719

I looked at the odds for Real Madrid to win about 12 hours ago and they seemed strange to me - I think the odds were like 1.75. Considering that Arsenal can afford to lose 1-0 or even 2-0, to play at the Santiago Bernabeu, I thought that was generous. Apparently I wasn't the only one who thought so and now the odds are 1.69 which is still very generous in my opinion. I myself say that Real is weak, but specifically here they are underestimated.

This is for the 2nd leg? dang bookies they dont even give Real Madrid over 2x odds, it smells like a trap for me though but if it is over 2x then I would be taking it.

Anyway, Arteta is definitely not the type to sit back, park the bus and let Real Madrid score. Most teams would probably learn it by now that if Real is behind on the 1st leg and you let them score first on the 2nd leg, waves of goals are going to come afterward. The best case scenario is to score even more goals for Arsenal to crush Real Madrid but playing in Santiago Bernabeu is a huge headache

Hmmm... Do you want odds greater than 2 to bet on Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu in a situation where Real Madrid only need a big win? I think this is a big greed  Wink
I mean why can't Real win 1-0 or 2-1? Arsenal is a shit team and even shitty Real can make a minimal win at home and ensure a win of the bet 1x.

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April 14, 2025, 11:28:07 AM
 #3720

Gentlemen, the time has come to submit your picks for MD14. Some new markets to put your money on, and perhaps an indicator of what's to come for the semifinals, but whatever it is, don't lose sight of the deadline roughly 30 hours from now.

Good luck!

Oh and Arsenal odds to win are pretty nice, I'd take them if I were a Gunner.


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