bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game

[Ryan Dugan]

Wow what is with all the problems getting access to peoples accounts and their btc ? Hope it is fixed soon it sounds bad. I dont play there anymore since its too dangerous for me. I will lose everything there. ^^ best to rather stop.

[RHavar]

Wow what is with all the problems getting access to peoples accounts and their btc ? Hope it is fixed soon it sounds bad. I dont play there anymore since its too dangerous for me. I will lose everything there. ^^ best to rather stop.

There is none, gamblingbad is just trolling. He has full access to his funds. His ip address was banned for being obnoxious (see: my previous posts), so then he thought it would be funny to login with a VPN (which is fine) and deposit ~0.1 bitcoin (*after* he was banned). And is now complaining he can't access his funds. But the truth is he has been on his account, his account is not locked, and he's free to withdraw when ever he wants. He hasn't even followed the procedure to get his primary ip unbanned.

Since I have better things to do with my time than deal with him, if he continues to spread lies I will leave his bitcointalk account negative trust 

[DarkDays]

Your theory is correct, but I'd like to point out that the GTO play in your scenario is to bet 10k and cash out at 1x.

Interesting. Can you explain why?

ie. "show your working"

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.  It works out almost exactly the same as your scenario where two players are betting 10k and a handful of others are betting dust.

@ 1x you successfully "cash out" 99.00990099009901% of the time. 

@ 2x you successfully "cash out" 49.256181899596996% of the time.

@ 2.01x you successfully "cash out" 49.00990099009901% of the time.

(those figures can be found here: https://www.bustabit.com/calculator)

If you cash out @ 1x:

49.7537 % of the time the game busts before 2x.  You win 0 from the game + 200 from the bonus.
49.2562% of the time the game busts after 2x.  You win 0 from the game + 0 from the bonus.
.9901% of the time the game busts at 0.  You lose 10,000 from the game.

So your EV from this bet is .4974 bits.

If you cash out @ 2.01x:

49.0099% of the time the game busts after 2.01x.  You win 10100 from the game + 200 from the bonus.
50% of the time the game busts before 2x.  You lose 10,000 from the game but win 100 from splitting the bonus.
.9901% of the time the game busts at 0.  You lose 10,000 from the game.

So your EV from this bet is -.9903 bits.

Keep in mind this doesn't take into account the times that the game busts at 2x exactly, so you lose the game AND lose the bonus.  But, of course, that will drag the average down since the % of times that you are -9900 from the game will decrease and the number of times you are -10000 from the game will increase.  It's a very small amount though.

[Ghris]

*snip*

It's early for me, but are you assuming you get bonus 100% of the time? Because if you always cashout at 1x you get way less bonus than when you cashout @ 2x.

[DarkDays]

*snip*

It's early for me, but are you assuming you get bonus 100% of the time? Because if you always cashout at 1x you get way less bonus than when you cashout @ 2x.

Yes, in a game where two people are playing, and wagering the same amount, when you cash out and they don't you get 100% of the bonus.  I am not assuming that you get the bonus 100% of the time...if you read what I wrote, I said you get the bonus 49.7537% of the time when you bet @ 1x (and your opponent is cashing out @ 2x).

[dooglus]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

[DarkDays]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

[Lanzador]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

[TwitchySeal]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

None of those people would understand it.

[DarkDays]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

Very few from what I've seen.  I'll play a couple times a month and there will occasionally be someone who "plays" with me, but most of the time it's just exploiting what other people who aren't paying attention/don't care about the bonus are doing.  It's like poker in that way.  Plus there's the whale monkey wrench.  If there's a high roller betting 1BTC every roll, it's hard to counter act that unless you're willing to do the same and that's a little too outside my bitcoin bankroll, especially if he's cashing out in the 1.5x range.  Although amusingly enough that is how you would get the highest return, since you'd be getting 2.x% back on every roll on a 1BTC bet.

[Lanzador]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

Very few from what I've seen.  I'll play a couple times a month and there will occasionally be someone who "plays" with me, but most of the time it's just exploiting what other people who aren't paying attention/don't care about the bonus are doing.  It's like poker in that way.  Plus there's the whale monkey wrench.  If there's a high roller betting 1BTC every roll, it's hard to counter act that unless you're willing to do the same and that's a little too outside my bitcoin bankroll, especially if he's cashing out in the 1.5x range.  Although amusingly enough that is how you would get the highest return, since you'd be getting 2.x% back on every roll on a 1BTC bet.

Well, a little more complicated than that right? 2% bonus, but ~1.25 of that goes to covering house edge / 0x bust chance. Then you only get that bonus ~75% of the time assuming you cash out after the whale. Then there's everyone else who cashes out after you eating into your bonus even more. So really it depends, game to game, cash out to cash out.

[TwitchySeal]

Wow, I misread earlier.

Saw pay, not play.

[DarkDays]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

Very few from what I've seen.  I'll play a couple times a month and there will occasionally be someone who "plays" with me, but most of the time it's just exploiting what other people who aren't paying attention/don't care about the bonus are doing.  It's like poker in that way.  Plus there's the whale monkey wrench.  If there's a high roller betting 1BTC every roll, it's hard to counter act that unless you're willing to do the same and that's a little too outside my bitcoin bankroll, especially if he's cashing out in the 1.5x range.  Although amusingly enough that is how you would get the highest return, since you'd be getting 2.x% back on every roll on a 1BTC bet.

Well, a little more complicated than that right? 2% bonus, but ~1.25 of that goes to covering house edge / 0x bust chance. Then you only get that bonus ~75% of the time assuming you cash out after the whale. Then there's everyone else who cashes out after you eating into your bonus even more. So really it depends, game to game, cash out to cash out.

Yeah, I'm talking about highest net return.  .75% of 1BTC = 7500 bits.  The people cashing out after you wouldn't affect your return that much because they would be wagering (usually) such a tiny % of your bet. 

[Lanzador]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

Very few from what I've seen.  I'll play a couple times a month and there will occasionally be someone who "plays" with me, but most of the time it's just exploiting what other people who aren't paying attention/don't care about the bonus are doing.  It's like poker in that way.  Plus there's the whale monkey wrench.  If there's a high roller betting 1BTC every roll, it's hard to counter act that unless you're willing to do the same and that's a little too outside my bitcoin bankroll, especially if he's cashing out in the 1.5x range.  Although amusingly enough that is how you would get the highest return, since you'd be getting 2.x% back on every roll on a 1BTC bet.

Well, a little more complicated than that right? 2% bonus, but ~1.25 of that goes to covering house edge / 0x bust chance. Then you only get that bonus ~75% of the time assuming you cash out after the whale. Then there's everyone else who cashes out after you eating into your bonus even more. So really it depends, game to game, cash out to cash out.

Yeah, I'm talking about highest net return.  .75% of 1BTC = 7500 bits.  The people cashing out after you wouldn't affect your return that much because they would be wagering (usually) such a tiny % of your bet. 

Yeah, but it only works if you can predict when that person cashes out.

[DarkDays]

We'll assume the game is being played heads up @ 10k bets for ease of calculation/showing work.

Thanks for that. Your math looks right to me.

I was thinking that if I was playing against 99 players all betting 10k each and cashing at 2.00x then cashing at 2.01x would be optimal for me, but even then it's not. Your 1x cash is still the best. At least my 2.01x cash becomes profitable if enough players are playing though.

When the site first came around, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math and my conclusion was that if your "opponents" (people who were betting the largest) are cashing out before 1.97x, you should wait until they cash out and then cash out right after they do.  If they cash out after 1.97x, you should cash out at 1x to maximize your EV.  Obviously you can expand this to say that if there are three of you betting large (it doesn't even have to be the same bets, but large enough to eat into your bonus) you should cash out after all the ones who cash out before 1.97x, but it gets pretty tricky when you have multiple people who are all trying to maximize their EV because it turns into a cat and mouse game. 

How many people actually play for the strategy though?

Very few from what I've seen.  I'll play a couple times a month and there will occasionally be someone who "plays" with me, but most of the time it's just exploiting what other people who aren't paying attention/don't care about the bonus are doing.  It's like poker in that way.  Plus there's the whale monkey wrench.  If there's a high roller betting 1BTC every roll, it's hard to counter act that unless you're willing to do the same and that's a little too outside my bitcoin bankroll, especially if he's cashing out in the 1.5x range.  Although amusingly enough that is how you would get the highest return, since you'd be getting 2.x% back on every roll on a 1BTC bet.

Well, a little more complicated than that right? 2% bonus, but ~1.25 of that goes to covering house edge / 0x bust chance. Then you only get that bonus ~75% of the time assuming you cash out after the whale. Then there's everyone else who cashes out after you eating into your bonus even more. So really it depends, game to game, cash out to cash out.

Yeah, I'm talking about highest net return.  .75% of 1BTC = 7500 bits.  The people cashing out after you wouldn't affect your return that much because they would be wagering (usually) such a tiny % of your bet. 

Yeah, but it only works if you can predict when that person cashes out.

Yes and no.  A lot of players play BaB like it's a dice game and have the same cash out multiplier every game.  So for them, you do know exactly when they cash out.  But to be profitable you just need to know if the people at the top of the betting list are cashing out before or after 1.97x.  If they cash out after, you cash out @ 1x.  If they cash out before, you cash out as soon as you see them do.  It's fairly rare to see someone mixing up his cashout level so much that it's 50/50 above and below 1.97x...people seem to either want a high 'jackpot' multiplier or a low 'safe' multiplier. 

But yes, if you are playing against other people who know what they are doing, then you all have very dynamic cash out ranges and it basically becomes a game of chicken.

[RHavar]

I like games of chicken 

[radiologist11]

again ryan deny me my money by ban my ip.

Did he specifically ban your IP, or did he ban your ISP/Country/...?

[RHavar]

Please ignore gamblingbad, as you can see in the previous pages he's just being a troll. Here is a partial-list of accounts he's made, most to try circumvent chat-mutes:

Code:

RYANSUCKS, gamblingbad5004, gabmlingbad5000, gamblingbab, gamblingbad10005, gamblingbad6000, gamblingbad6001, cooldad1, gamblingbad, gamblingbad10k, halfmoon1001, halfmoon1002, gamblingbad5000, gamblingbad5001, gamblingbad5002, gamblingbad40000, gamblingbab40002, gamblingbad40001, locoman, gabmlingbad40003, 

And furthermore, none of his accounts are banned or have any restrictions other than being muted from being able to chat. If he has problems with connecting with his ip address, he's free to use a VPN to do so (as he's proven quite apt at doing) and withdrawing.

I'd appreciate if people just ignore him here, as it's just a big waste of everyones time 

[Zenzolina]

This game is bullshit and in no way provably fair.

When you bet high it gives all busts under 2x 10 times if needed. As soon as you stop with high bets and make your bet lower than goes in green lol.

As well autobetting is rigged. Example: I place a bet of 2000 bits and autocashout @2x  and it should bet instead of me, and it is when im in red, but when im suposed to get in green than bot "accidentaly" miss a bet 

Tnx for 0.01 BTC profit but i would never touch that site again

[DarkDays]

This game is bullshit and in no way provably fair.

When you bet high it gives all busts under 2x 10 times if needed. As soon as you stop with high bets and make your bet lower than goes in green lol.

As well autobetting is rigged. Example: I place a bet of 2000 bits and autocashout @2x  and it should bet instead of me, and it is when im in red, but when im suposed to get in green than bot "accidentaly" miss a bet 

Tnx for 0.01 BTC profit but i would never touch that site again

Seems like a well researched, well thought out comment from a well respected member of the communit...



...oh.