GAW ZenCloud ZenPool Hashlet - does it really exist? ALWAYS MAKE MONEY :-)

[elrugrim]

Mob-  You should also have data sets for 450/500, and your drastic percentage would be wildly different if your numbers where a few days ago before the price crash, so the statistic is a bit misleading, unless your postulating that btc is never going back up from here?

[MOB]

Mob-  You should also have data sets for 450/500, and your drastic percentage would be wildly different if your numbers where a few days ago before the price crash, so the statistic is a bit misleading, unless your postulating that btc is never going back up from here?

I can add that in tomorrow.

If you want to know what it would be at $500, then just multiply the USD earnings by 1.25 from the initial $400 BTC estimates.


I do think it is far more likely that this downward trend will continue.  Take a look at a 1 month, 3 month, or 6 month chart of BTC prices.

Also, remember than Zenpool payouts are decreasing independently of the BTC price decline.  So, if BTC takes 60 days to recover, then it is likely too late for your purchase unless you are holding 100% of your earnings in BTC.

Again, if you think that BTC will go up to $500 in the next month, then you would be better served by buying BTC and holding it.  You would make more money (if it goes to 500) and have less risk.

[tom14cat14]

If you are going to calculate ROI IMO you have to look at how many BTC you could buy on DAY 0 with the amount you are buying in hashlets. Because if the price decreases yes the ROI for USD gets much longer but if you would have bought and just held BTC it would be going down also. So you have to calculate how many BTC you can buy so it is apples to apples. Also do not forget the last few days have had the largest drop on zen pool. There have been drops like this followed by spikes. The ROI on these has gotten much tougher with price of BTC dropping so now you need to mine a lot more BTC in order to ROI. (You can buy a lot more with $21 then you could a few days ago)  You have to remember I ran the numbers for my hashlets over a month ago now. I still run numbers but not for ROI if you buy new hashlets. If the zenpool keeps dropping like it has the last 3 days then yes these will not be a good buy. it has gone down more then the avg over time. (these are not my numbers and I have not verified the .07% per day)

[tom14cat14]

MOB I just ran some quick numbers for current price of Primes. And we have agreed on something. Calculating current conditions it will 153 days to ROI. This does not include decrease in zenpool. It is taking today's(worst i have seen since i started)

[Flep182]

Just happen to sell a Prime hashlet that I bought for 25 when BTC was (I guess around) 450.

Same with a Genesis Hashlet I bought with points two weeks back. Nice profit there with the dropping BTC price. Though I wouldn't be unhappy if it went back to 500 again

Good thing that the price for the Primes went down again to 25. They should remove all the solo hashlets too since they have no added benefit atm. Back to two options, scrypt and SHA-256.

[Flep182]

Oh, an update, payouts are impossible at the moment. #payoutwatch

[deebosch]

The price better drop a lot.  Hashlet Primes (35 days since their introduction) currently mine about 48% less fiat than they did when introduced on August 16th.

In order to get the same $15.99/MH deal available for early adopters, one would need to be able to purchase a Prime for $8.31.  A Hashlet Prime at $25 will not ROI unless BTC skyrockets.

According to Tom14cat14's statistic that there is a .07% average decline in profitability each day on Zenpool, I offer the following numbers: (watching a poor movie and have a calculator handy ;p)

For these calculations, Day 0 is today.  Assume you bought a $25/MH Prime today and mined the full 24 hours with no fees.  You were paid 100% of your expected income.  The day 0 payout in USD is $.2474/MH.

Each percentage offered after this will be what percentage of Day 0 you are now receiving after fees.

At $25/MH it will take you ~145 to ROI if BTC stays at the current price and if your payouts staying at Day 1 rates (which is not reality). If you factor in the Zenpool rate decreases over time (averaged from last 35 days) then your ROI is closer to ~215+ days.  If you also anticipate a bearish BTC outlook, then you will essentially never ROI at $25/MH.

In either scenario, your best hope will be just breaking even, not actually making money.  If your profitability depends on BTC going up, then you would be better off buying BTC directly.  You would make more money and lose less if BTC crashes.


For the first set, I assuming BTC average price =$400

Day 1: 69.16% ($.17/MH)
Day 10: 64.91% ($.1605/MH)
Day 30: 56.41% ($.1395/MH)
Day 60: 45.69% ($.113/MH)
Day 120: 29.77% ($.07/MH)
Day 240: 12.81% ($.0316/MH)
Day 365: 5.32% ($.013/MH)


If we assume BTC is an average price of $350:

Day 30: 49.36% ($.1221/MH)
Day 60: 39.98%
Day 120: 26.22% ($.0648/MH)
Day 240: 11.21%
Day 365: 4.65%


If we assume BTC is an average price of $300:

Day 30: 42.31% ($.1046/MH)
Day 60: 34.27%
Day 120: 22.33% ($.0552/MH)
Day 240: 9.61%
Day 365: 3.99%

At least someone with a head on his shoulders. Alas, its impossible to teach lemmings basic math they still wonder what would be better: to loose 50% of their "investment" or 40%.

[DARKANGEL6415]

i have seen some people post the primes are now $25 abd i also see a post say it wont be till later on this month when new pricing will be in effect. Can someone tell me clear answer as i see still same priceson websites

[xephyr]

i have seen some people post the primes are now $25 abd i also see a post say it wont be till later on this month when new pricing will be in effect. Can someone tell me clear answer as i see still same priceson websites

Primes will cost $25 on 9/24 see the post at https://hashtalk.org/topic/7469/hashlet-prime-pricing-change-sha-and-batch-2

[Flep182]

Oh, an update, payouts are impossible at the moment. #payoutwatch

Still no payout possible. 504 Gateway error. Plus there hasn't been a single payout yet for today. Nor hashpoints nor bitcoin. Usually it should have been finished already

[edit]:
[IMG=http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/150x100q90/901/X4WVUo.png][/IMG]

[edit 2]:
Might have to do with this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2h0nht/seems_like_coinbase_is_broken/

[MOB]

GAW really needs to fix their payout system.

It has been more than a month and it still does not pay out at the time that Josh stated it is supposed to payout.  Payouts are supposed to happen at 8AM ET.  I have seen them as late as 7PM ET this week.


Why does this matter?

Because, as I posted earlier, this creates a situation in which GAW could make a few pennies per MH at their customers' expense as they choose a period of below average BTC price on which to base their payouts. A few pennies per MH being anywhere from 5-10% of their total payout, which massively effects ROI.

With the current system, at best you are being arbitrarily affected by BTC price fluctuations, while at worst your profits are being systematically reduced.

GAW needs to publicly set a time that payouts happen and actually pay out.  If they need to buy a few more Pentium 386's, then so be it. They should also use an index price or a daily average so that no one can influence the price directly before payouts are calculated.

They should not be reliant upon a single point of failure or manipulation (like Coinbase), but use either Winkdex or a transparent method of their own to calculate average BTC price across exchanges.

[suchmoon]

Not sure what coinbase has to do with it. Payouts are off chain, aren't they? If they use coinbase for the USD/BTC rate, they should have contingencies for this kind of situation.

I thought I read somewhere that payout code was refactored and would run in 10 minutes. Maybe that's not in production yet.

[Flep182]

Not sure what coinbase has to do with it. Payouts are off chain, aren't they? If they use coinbase for the USD/BTC rate, they should have contingencies for this kind of situation.

I thought I read somewhere that payout code was refactored and would run in 10 minutes. Maybe that's not in production yet.

I was talking about the getting it from GAW to my wallet. That didn't work but is working now.

Message from Eric on Hashtalk:

Hey guys, payouts will run soon. Remember, the time frame is between 7am and 12pm. Now that the process takes on average 10 minutes, this will be a substantial improvement over the past couple weeks.

That was 19 minutes ago. So expect something soon

[suchmoon]

Not sure what coinbase has to do with it. Payouts are off chain, aren't they? If they use coinbase for the USD/BTC rate, they should have contingencies for this kind of situation.

I thought I read somewhere that payout code was refactored and would run in 10 minutes. Maybe that's not in production yet.

I was talking about the getting it from GAW to my wallet. That didn't work but is working now.

Ah, ok. I think they said they'd start using their own Bitcoin daemon for payouts, not sure when though

Message from Eric on Hashtalk:

Hey guys, payouts will run soon. Remember, the time frame is between 7am and 12pm. Now that the process takes on average 10 minutes, this will be a substantial improvement over the past couple weeks.

That was 19 minutes ago. So expect something soon

Is it just me or is the payout time shifting? I thought it was noon UTC, not noon EST.

[demme]

Do you guys think GAW will actually ship a physical vault breaker or will everybody get their hashrate delivered in form of hashlets?

[I_IZ_CEO]

I think they made a statement that the VB2 customers would get hashlets.

[demme]

I think they made a statement that the VB2 customers would get hashlets.

Okay and batch 1 will get physical miners or have the option to get hashlets instead?

[suchmoon]

I think they made a statement that the VB2 customers would get hashlets.

Okay and batch 1 will get physical miners or have the option to get hashlets instead?

They had that option about a month ago. But there was also an option to get regular hosted miners (not hashlets) temporarily, and still receive the shipped VB when it's released.

[demme]

I think they made a statement that the VB2 customers would get hashlets.

Okay and batch 1 will get physical miners or have the option to get hashlets instead?

They had that option about a month ago. But there was also an option to get regular hosted miners (not hashlets) temporarily, and still receive the shipped VB when it's released.

Okay thanks for the info

[cryptost]

Just thought i would drop by and give you guys my quick experience with GAW so far.

My initial investment is as follows:
100GH Genesis
5MH Multi
5MH Waffle
5MH Clever
75MH ZEN
10MH Prime

The ride so far has been a little bumpy as things seem to change really quick with announcements, though it's actually quite fun as you don't know whats coming next! (Maybe not for some people though)

So far so good I have received payments each day that have been on target with suggested payouts and been able to withdraw BTC most of the time without delay.

I would say the best part of being part of GAW is the community on hasktalk and that it's good to be able to make suggestions and get responses and actions from the CEO direct.
An example of this was I suggested a change should be made on the website to make things clearer and got a reply from the CEO who then got the change made.

Also recent announcement of Prime reduction in price has worked out well for me as I can get another 10 Primes or just keep the refund.

I'll update as things pan out.

I also just invested in LTC Gear as they are running a big discount at the moment, I think it ends today, see my sig for details.