GAW ZenCloud ZenPool Hashlet - does it really exist? ALWAYS MAKE MONEY :-)

[eightcylinders]

C) GAW may keep its promise not to create new Prime hashlets, but a large number of prime hashlets will mysteriously become available possibly through resellers or the market.  Since hashlets are virtual anyway, GAW or its resellers could have millions in virtual inventory and still be truthful when saying no new primes will be created.  Now that GAW has cleared out all of the whiners like me who wanted out at a lower price, they may be able to support a higher price in a market for a while and keep selling them directly via the market or indirectly via resellers.

The "halt" of Prime sales to me sounds like doublespeak for "we wanted to increase the price but that might be unpopular". So if we remove Primes from the official sites and hype them enough to increase the demand to drive up the prices in the marketplace, can we inject new Primes quietly into the marketplace at >$50? I have no idea if that would work, but I'm already seeing bold price predictions on HT, including of course "moderators".

Yes, I think that something like this has to happen so that GAW and its resellers can recover from the payouts they have to make to folks like me who sold out.  It is also a classic example of price segmenting .. if 5 people are willing to sell at 20 or buy at 16, another 5 are willing sell at 30 or buy at 25, another 5 who will want to sell at 40 or buy at 30, etc.  And 50% of the market will just buy at whatever price so long as it is perceived as a "market" price.  What do you do?  To maximine profit, you need to buy out the folks who would sell below your mark BEFORE you establish the market.  By eliminating all those who would sell below $49, GAW ensured that the market, when it opens, will be able to keep a stable $49 or higher price point at least for a while.

Genius At Work as they say.

[eightcylinders]

Assuming that GAW is legit and not a ponzi, the only realistic possibility is that multi-algos is a business/virtualized solution, not a technology one.  What I mean is that the only way to achieve what Josh is proposing is buying buying several different ASICs, each designed for a different algo, and then allowing primes to access each of them.  If that is what Josh has in mind, it is not going to work IMHO because it will mean that GAW will need to purchase multiple ASICS for EACH prime customer - and with no new investment since primes are supposedly going off the market!  how will that happen?  Who will fund those new ASICS targeted to multiple algos?

What makes you think that primes are real hardware? I think it's pretty obvious those are shares and not connected to any hardware.
GAW does all the mining for themselves and pay you out as if you were mining, based on the performance of your virtual hashlet (prime). It doesn't matter what they are mining.

And who knows if they haven't started getting into ASIC's for other algos (individual, not multi algo ASICs) months ago. Who's to say that some newer algos are not much simpler to develop than it is for scrypt? They don't have competition and they don't need to aim for the skies, just beat CPU/GPU mining with a large enough margin. Not likely, but possible.

We are saying the same thing sort of.  I mean that either (A) GAW has a datacenter with actual miners somewhere that are mining at the pools as directed by the aggregate of all hashlets (e.g., if there are 1,000,000 mhs in hashlets pointed to Clevermining in the aggregate, then GAW has to have mining hardware at its datacenter that in the aggregate mines at least 1,000,000 mhs at Clevermining at a given point in time), or (B) if (A) is not true, then GAW is merely a fraud/ponzi scheme.  Note that you can have a ponzi scheme that engages is real economic activity; the original Ponzi scheme involved arbitraging postage stamps between Europe and the U.S. , but it collapsed because there were not enough stamps to support the number sold through he ponzi scheme which is exactly what I worry about with GAW/Zenwhatever.

 If the underlying model is (A) (not ponzi), then somehow GAW has to acquire (on a continuous basis) new ASICS to keep ahead of the market.  There are some very large players in this industry where a few million dollars is nothing but a drop in the hat.  How would GAW keep ahead of bitmain, KNC, innosilicon, gridseed, etc?  How many major ASIC developers have failed to deliver product that is competitive even with millions of dollars in R&D (Black Arrow, KNC, Cointerra, to name just the most recent flameouts).  GAW has never purported to be an ASIC developer, and I would never believe that even if they said they were.  GAW claims to have *relationships* with ASIC companies and claims to be able to use market power to get the best deals.  THAT I believe.  However, even the best deals cannot compensate for late deliveries, missed power targets, and/or competitors who get out there with better more efficient ASICS.

What is true is that the next crop of ASICs looks to be coming in December, at a price point of about $5 per mhs (scrypt).  At least one manufacturer will have some limited support for Scrypt-N.  Assuming GAW has preferred pricing and will be first in queue (a possibility given the number of hashlets they have sold), there is an opportunity for GAW to profit by making large scale ASIC purchases at say $4/mhs delivered in December-January by selling hashlets NOW for $49.  Essentially the $49 price subsidizes losses until GAW can take delivery and bring up the new cheaper ASICS.

But how long can that continue?  It is really a one or two trick pony.  And, the more folks who bail out now at $20-40, the less money GAW has to capitalize on this.  E.g., GAW needs capital to make hashlets work.  Hence my predictions.

[suchmoon]

I doubt they are going to sneak primes in to the market. Obviously they can't just leak a massive amount of them and they do take 10% of every transaction which works better long term.

I would find it more believable if they didn't have their shills and moderators hyping up the prices in their own forum... it's starting to sound uncannily like so many shitcoin pumps right here on bitcointalk.

Well, I guess I'll have to wait and see what happens next, since I still can't get rid of my stupid "fury".

[suchmoon]

What is true is that the next crop of ASICs looks to be coming in December, at a price point of about $5 per mhs (scrypt).  At least one manufacturer will have some limited support for Scrypt-N.  Assuming GAW has preferred pricing and will be first in queue (a possibility given the number of hashlets they have sold), there is an opportunity for GAW to profit by making large scale ASIC purchases at say $4/mhs delivered in December-January by selling hashlets NOW for $49.  Essentially the $49 price subsidizes losses until GAW can take delivery and bring up the new cheaper ASICS.

I think I posted in response to one of the "datacenter" pictures that the hashlet idea looks like a massive preorder for filling up said datacenter. I'm still not quite sure where they would put the amounts of hashrate they claim to have sold. Only Bitcoin network could possibly support that, any other coin - even LTC - would be 51%-ed. Or maybe that's where the "coin development team" comes in.

[eightcylinders]

What is true is that the next crop of ASICs looks to be coming in December, at a price point of about $5 per mhs (scrypt).  At least one manufacturer will have some limited support for Scrypt-N.  Assuming GAW has preferred pricing and will be first in queue (a possibility given the number of hashlets they have sold), there is an opportunity for GAW to profit by making large scale ASIC purchases at say $4/mhs delivered in December-January by selling hashlets NOW for $49.  Essentially the $49 price subsidizes losses until GAW can take delivery and bring up the new cheaper ASICS.

I think I posted in response to one of the "datacenter" pictures that the hashlet idea looks like a massive preorder for filling up said datacenter. I'm still not quite sure where they would put the amounts of hashrate they claim to have sold. Only Bitcoin network could possibly support that, any other coin - even LTC - would be 51%-ed. Or maybe that's where the "coin development team" comes in.

That is why I say this whole thing smells a lot like the original Ponzi with the stamp scheme.  It makes sense for a few thousand, but when you multiply that to millions, the whole things falls apart.  We will see.

[Flep182]

What is true is that the next crop of ASICs looks to be coming in December, at a price point of about $5 per mhs (scrypt).  At least one manufacturer will have some limited support for Scrypt-N.  Assuming GAW has preferred pricing and will be first in queue (a possibility given the number of hashlets they have sold), there is an opportunity for GAW to profit by making large scale ASIC purchases at say $4/mhs delivered in December-January by selling hashlets NOW for $49.  Essentially the $49 price subsidizes losses until GAW can take delivery and bring up the new cheaper ASICS.

I think I posted in response to one of the "datacenter" pictures that the hashlet idea looks like a massive preorder for filling up said datacenter. I'm still not quite sure where they would put the amounts of hashrate they claim to have sold. Only Bitcoin network could possibly support that, any other coin - even LTC - would be 51%-ed. Or maybe that's where the "coin development team" comes in.

I've thought of that option before. Having them buy S3's at bulkrate to mine BTC and payout the (lower than BTC revenue per USD investment) customers.

[EvilPanda]

A lot of speculation, you were very productive in the last 2 days.

If the underlying model is (A) (not ponzi), then somehow GAW has to acquire (on a continuous basis) new ASICS to keep ahead of the market.  There are some very large players in this industry where a few million dollars is nothing but a drop in the hat.  How would GAW keep ahead of bitmain, KNC, innosilicon, gridseed, etc?  How many major ASIC developers have failed to deliver product that is competitive even with millions of dollars in R&D (Black Arrow, KNC, Cointerra, to name just the most recent flameouts).  GAW has never purported to be an ASIC developer, and I would never believe that even if they said they were.  GAW claims to have *relationships* with ASIC companies and claims to be able to use market power to get the best deals.  THAT I believe.  However, even the best deals cannot compensate for late deliveries, missed power targets, and/or competitors who get out there with better more efficient ASICS.

During one of the live conference feeds Josh was asked what hardware they are using and responded "all of them". I think he said something about aiming at Bitmain at the moment.
He also mentioned plans for their own chip. They aren't a manufacturer, but have enough funds for someone to design it.  So they are doing what they can to have those most efficient asics.
He said they have over 500000 Mh at the moment.

You might be interested in this feed (from 5:40)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVXPFVl0r0M

[dekodoge]

spelling mistake on purpose as i imagine they own the trademark hashlet.

[SDRebel]

C) GAW may keep its promise not to create new Prime hashlets, but a large number of prime hashlets will mysteriously become available possibly through resellers or the market.  Since hashlets are virtual anyway, GAW or its resellers could have millions in virtual inventory and still be truthful when saying no new primes will be created.  Now that GAW has cleared out all of the whiners like me who wanted out at a lower price, they may be able to support a higher price in a market for a while and keep selling them directly via the market or indirectly via resellers.

The "halt" of Prime sales to me sounds like doublespeak for "we wanted to increase the price but that might be unpopular". So if we remove Primes from the official sites and hype them enough to increase the demand to drive up the prices in the marketplace, can we inject new Primes quietly into the marketplace at >$50? I have no idea if that would work, but I'm already seeing bold price predictions on HT, including of course "moderators".

they don't need to inject them at higher than $50. THe current owners will be happier with all the hype because they will think their worth is higher, then they will kep reinvesting in the next best thing that is the Zens.
the morale in general went up. there was a lot of ourage because people were not able to sell back for $40. now you don't hear that anymore because of the new perception that they could even be worth more than $50

for the moment I'll stuck to zens, genesis (bought really cheap, including some in the market for 0.53/Gh) , and ltcgear of course

[SDRebel]

I doubt they are going to sneak primes in to the market. Obviously they can't just leak a massive amount of them and they do take 10% of every transaction which works better long term.

I would find it more believable if they didn't have their shills and moderators hyping up the prices in their own forum... it's starting to sound uncannily like so many shitcoin pumps right here on bitcointalk.

Well, I guess I'll have to wait and see what happens next, since I still can't get rid of my stupid "fury".

you have a zen/gaw hosted fury or a physical one? i might be interested. currently no miners at home. it's quiet in here

[SDRebel]

What is true is that the next crop of ASICs looks to be coming in December, at a price point of about $5 per mhs (scrypt).  At least one manufacturer will have some limited support for Scrypt-N.  Assuming GAW has preferred pricing and will be first in queue (a possibility given the number of hashlets they have sold), there is an opportunity for GAW to profit by making large scale ASIC purchases at say $4/mhs delivered in December-January by selling hashlets NOW for $49.  Essentially the $49 price subsidizes losses until GAW can take delivery and bring up the new cheaper ASICS.

I think I posted in response to one of the "datacenter" pictures that the hashlet idea looks like a massive preorder for filling up said datacenter. I'm still not quite sure where they would put the amounts of hashrate they claim to have sold. Only Bitcoin network could possibly support that, any other coin - even LTC - would be 51%-ed. Or maybe that's where the "coin development team" comes in.

That is why I say this whole thing smells a lot like the original Ponzi with the stamp scheme.  It makes sense for a few thousand, but when you multiply that to millions, the whole things falls apart.  We will see.

it doesn't need to be a ponzi when the margin on the primes is so big. they have plenty of room to do a lot of things, including buying tons of BTC equipment Like said above, even LTC would be 51%ed, though if they are smart, even if they were to have 70% of ltc, they would be better off keeping it alive and splitting that 70% in multiple pools

[l1za]

http://i60.tinypic.com/25exsgy.jpg

spelling mistake on purpose as i imagine they own the trademark hashlet.

For what? To make them look stupid on that misspelled word?

[dekodoge]

spelling mistake on purpose as i imagine they own the trademark hashlet.

For what? To make them look stupid on that misspelled word?

no, so they don't sue me.

[suchmoon]

I doubt they are going to sneak primes in to the market. Obviously they can't just leak a massive amount of them and they do take 10% of every transaction which works better long term.

I would find it more believable if they didn't have their shills and moderators hyping up the prices in their own forum... it's starting to sound uncannily like so many shitcoin pumps right here on bitcointalk.

Well, I guess I'll have to wait and see what happens next, since I still can't get rid of my stupid "fury".

you have a zen/gaw hosted fury or a physical one? i might be interested. currently no miners at home. it's quiet in here

I have a hosted Fury that was given as a gift to ZenCloud customers a couple of months ago. It got converted to a Prime later but it seems it's some kind of special Prime - I can't sell it.

If you are looking for a miner I'd suggest something other than Zeus crap, it's unprofitable if you pay $0.15 per kWh or more. Even an old Gridseed blade would be better.

[MOB]

spelling mistake on purpose as i imagine they own the trademark hashlet.

Trademarks do not preclude parody.

[MOB]

A lot of speculation, you were very productive in the last 2 days.

If the underlying model is (A) (not ponzi), then somehow GAW has to acquire (on a continuous basis) new ASICS to keep ahead of the market.  There are some very large players in this industry where a few million dollars is nothing but a drop in the hat.  How would GAW keep ahead of bitmain, KNC, innosilicon, gridseed, etc?  How many major ASIC developers have failed to deliver product that is competitive even with millions of dollars in R&D (Black Arrow, KNC, Cointerra, to name just the most recent flameouts).  GAW has never purported to be an ASIC developer, and I would never believe that even if they said they were.  GAW claims to have *relationships* with ASIC companies and claims to be able to use market power to get the best deals.  THAT I believe.  However, even the best deals cannot compensate for late deliveries, missed power targets, and/or competitors who get out there with better more efficient ASICS.

During one of the live conference feeds Josh was asked what hardware they are using and responded "all of them". I think he said something about aiming at Bitmain at the moment.
He also mentioned plans for their own chip. They aren't a manufacturer, but have enough funds for someone to design it.  So they are doing what they can to have those most efficient asics.
He said they have over 500000 Mh at the moment.

You might be interested in this feed (from 5:40)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVXPFVl0r0M

What were we supposed to be looking at around 5:40? 

Around 10 minutes he finally says something not utterly old news, but mainly is mentioned the rapidly declining profitability that is currently the state of mining. Looking forward (up to two years) he mentions that transaction fees should become a larger portion of their payouts.

[NuShrike]

#payoutwatch even more late today, and withdrawals still b/locked.

Also, LTCPool had a huge drop in payout. Last place now among the "scrypt" pools.

edit: withdrawals work now ...

[suchmoon]

#payoutwatch even more late today, and withdrawals still b/locked

Edit: sneaky edit

and everyone's favorite double dip option LTC Pool suddenly turned to crap:


Edited 2020-11-27 to fix a broken image

https://hashtalk.org/topic/11516/what-happened-to-the-ltc-pool

That will put a dent into Prime prices. Or not.

[SDRebel]

I doubt they are going to sneak primes in to the market. Obviously they can't just leak a massive amount of them and they do take 10% of every transaction which works better long term.

I would find it more believable if they didn't have their shills and moderators hyping up the prices in their own forum... it's starting to sound uncannily like so many shitcoin pumps right here on bitcointalk.

Well, I guess I'll have to wait and see what happens next, since I still can't get rid of my stupid "fury".

you have a zen/gaw hosted fury or a physical one? i might be interested. currently no miners at home. it's quiet in here

I have a hosted Fury that was given as a gift to ZenCloud customers a couple of months ago. It got converted to a Prime later but it seems it's some kind of special Prime - I can't sell it.

If you are looking for a miner I'd suggest something other than Zeus crap, it's unprofitable if you pay $0.15 per kWh or more. Even an old Gridseed blade would be better.

so is that the only thing you have hosted or do you have other stuff?
I'm getting a gridseed from zoomhash, but they are taking forever. getting one of those 23-25Mh scrypt ones

[SDRebel]

#payoutwatch even more late today, and withdrawals still b/locked

Edit: sneaky edit

and everyone's favorite double dip option LTC Pool suddenly turned to crap:



https://hashtalk.org/topic/11516/what-happened-to-the-ltc-pool

That will put a dent into Prime prices. Or not.

lol you would think...pbut people are buying them even at $70 from resellers...they are insane