Rally!!!!!

[proudhon]

- bitinstant and massive availability of "cash for btc" trade
- bit-pay massive growth, reportedly 200-300% per month
- bitcoin magazine
- GPU -> FPGA change of guard
- investments being rounded up for bitcoin mining ASIC's by multiply independent parties (meaning by the end of 2013-2014 51% could be out of reach of most viable attackers today and that we will be measuring hashing power in petahashes and exahashes)
- upcoming FIRST EVER bitcoin subsidy cut
- massive and mostly positive news flow
- many significant projects in development, including zipconf, kronos, hermes, ellet hardware wallet, that bitcoin card, proper hosting services suitable for hosting bitcoin wallets etc...
- improvement on the decentralisation front. For example, say, mtgox (or and other exchange or biz) folds now, it is only problem for their customers, the rest of the world will just move on.  Deep bit is taking relatively small fraction of mining power as opposed to flirting with 51% level.

We are now at some very much solid footing as compared to about 1 year ago when we 2 digit valuations of BTC. I would think that market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin and its potential.

If a (centralised) company with anything close to Bitcoin's "product" and growth history and potential to effectively replace most of modern banking system which has estimated valuation at almost 10% of worlds assets (excluding all the off-balance shit, lol). Such a company would be valued at billions already, not some puny 50MM which is a valuation reserved for smalltime 3 man teams starting some scam and trading it on pink sheets.

Do post if I have missed something of note.

I would think that fair Bitcoins valuation should be in middle 2 digit right now, not 5-6$.

Why do you think valuation should be in "middle 2 digit" right now?

Check out what I highlighted in bold from your post.  This is the only non-speculative indicator you listed that suggests that the value of Bitcoin should increase.  

The value of Bitcoin should only increase when people buy them and use them.

Now, the value of Bitcoin may increase due to the other things you mentioned, and I would be inclined to agree that it will.  But, they are in no way definitive reasons that the value of Bitcoin should be in double digits.

its shows us that, demand is growing "bit-pay growth", miners are confident value will not drop GPU -> FPGA change of guard (multiply independent parties), project development is not slowing (their only getting more ambitious).

improvements all round. price lingers behind? Maybe!

8$

Maybe $8 in 2013.

[Vladimir]

I'll give you another reason why the prices could have been suppressed lately (by your bellowed free and allegedly efficient market).

Look at massive lending bubble on GLBSE. It is possible that large portion of BTC loaned was converted into fiat and funnelled somewhere outside of Bitocoin economy (like $ denominated ponzi schemes). If so with current up leg (and implosion of some well known ponzi schemes) could work its way through the system and cause a string of BTC defaults. As such this would effectively freeze high interest BTC lending market and stop this constant sale pressure, causing further USDBTC rise and further defaults, and so on in a vicious spiral.

Whomever, borrowed 100 BTC and converted it out at 5$ will find it much more difficult to pay 6-10% per week when he needs to convert fiat back to BTC at 6$. Whomever have borrowed at insane loan shark rates BTC and converted it to USD will find it much more difficult to not default on that loan at 6$.

This all is not going to end well for many bears (BTC borrowers).

As Warren Buffet said: "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

[dree12]

dree12,  the joint: No offence, but both of you, in this case, are being simply ridiculous and really do not deserve any more detailed response.

Au contraire. Let us establish that there is little reason to assume manipulation by the major exchanges or major players on them, so we can assume that this price is, in fact, the price most people are willing to buy/sell at (as I argued previously, if you have a different price, I would be glad to exploit it).

For each buyer, there is a seller. This means that for every 5.7 $ USD of people gaining an interest in the value of bitcoin, there is also 1 BTC of people losing an interest in the value of bitcoin (equivalent to gaining an interest in the value of USD). Clearly, if you believe that the fair market value should be in the double digits, as a rational actor you will have gained as much interest in BTC as you would be willing to risk. Someone must have sold these bitcoins to you; this person is evidently acting to lose interest in BTC.

The effect I outline is your claim of people disagreeing with your fair value as ridiculous. It would suffice to state that this statement would apply to half the volume of BTCUSD trades, the selling side. And if an argument states that all these people are ridiculous, it follows that the argument is likely ridiculous.

[adamstgBit]

Yo WTV, Eight Dollars Bitches

I really hoping for a good drop to jump on the train tho.... come to papa 5.30

[Vladimir]

how you arrived from this

I would think that market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin and its potential.
...
I would think that fair Bitcoins valuation should be in middle 2 digit right now, not 5-6$.

to this

dree12,  the joint: No offence, but both of you, in this case, are being simply ridiculous and really do not deserve any more detailed response.

Au contraire. Let us establish that there is little reason to assume manipulation by the major exchanges or major players on them, so we can assume that this price is, in fact, the price most people are willing to buy/sell at (as I argued previously, if you have a different price, I would be glad to exploit it).

For each buyer, there is a seller. This means that for every 5.7 $ USD of people gaining an interest in the value of bitcoin, there is also 1 BTC of people losing an interest in the value of bitcoin (equivalent to gaining an interest in the value of USD). Clearly, if you believe that the fair market value should be in the double digits, as a rational actor you will have gained as much interest in BTC as you would be willing to risk. Someone must have sold these bitcoins to you; this person is evidently acting to lose interest in BTC.

The effect I outline is your claim of people disagreeing with your fair value as ridiculous. It would suffice to state that this statement would apply to half the volume of BTCUSD trades, the selling side. And if an argument states that all these people are ridiculous, it follows that the argument is likely ridiculous.

is beyond logic.

And no,  I am not going to start buying bitcoins now from you at 50$ and this does not make my points any less valid and yours any less ridiculous and childish.

I however, can and do take advantage of markets being wrong (and they often are, suprise, surprise) by buying or not selling bitcoins or not selling any more than I absolutely have to at current prices.

[aqrulesms]

EDIT: Nevermind

[Yuhfhrh]

Bitstamp hit $5.80, although not as high as earlier.

[molecular]

- bitinstant and massive availability of "cash for btc" trade
- bit-pay massive growth, reportedly 200-300% per month
- bitcoin magazine
- GPU -> FPGA change of guard
- investments being rounded up for bitcoin mining ASIC's by multiply independent parties (meaning by the end of 2013-2014 51% could be out of reach of most viable attackers today and that we will be measuring hashing power in petahashes and exahashes)
- upcoming FIRST EVER bitcoin subsidy cut
- massive and mostly positive news flow
- many significant projects in development, including zipconf, kronos, hermes, ellet hardware wallet, that bitcoin card, proper hosting services suitable for hosting bitcoin wallets etc...
- improvement on the decentralisation front. For example, say, mtgox (or and other exchange or biz) folds now, it is only problem for their customers, the rest of the world will just move on.  Deep bit is taking relatively small fraction of mining power as opposed to flirting with 51% level.

you forgot:

• cool, rational old-time bitcoiner posting in "Speculation/Rally!!!!!"-thread

[Vladimir]

you forgot:

• cool, rational old-time bitcoiner posting in "Speculation/Rally!!!!!"-thread

yep, Molecular just posted here. This alone should cause a little pop .10$ or so. Bears, pray that he does not go on a posting rampage here.  

[Serge]

I'll give you another reason why the prices could have been suppressed lately (by your bellowed free and allegedly efficient market).

Look at massive lending bubble on GLBSE. It is possible that large portion of BTC loaned was converted into fiat and funnelled somewhere outside of Bitocoin economy (like $ denominated ponzi schemes). If so with current up leg (and implosion of some well known ponzi schemes) could work its way through the system and cause a string of BTC defaults. As such this would effectively freeze high interest BTC lending market and stop this constant sale pressure, causing further USDBTC rise and further defaults, and so on in a vicious spiral.

Whomever, borrowed 100 BTC and converted it out at 5$ will find it much more difficult to pay 6-10% per week when he needs to convert fiat back to BTC at 6$. Whomever have borrowed at insane loan shark rates BTC and converted it to USD will find it much more difficult to not default on that loan at 6$.

This all is not going to end well for many bears (BTC borrowers).

As Warren Buffet said: "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

i haven't made up my mind about pirate's high interest operation, simply for not enough data to digest and process to come to any sensible conclusion.
but just reading recent slashdot article i found one comment ironically fitting to your POV of pirate's biz, agrument that we've heard many times over:

The bank angle here is an irrelevant distraction to be used as a handy bit of misdirection. It really doesn't matter how good or bad the banks are, the question is whether it makes any sense at all to get involved in the old fashioned ponzi scheme in new clothes that is bitcoin or not.
The way bitcoin is set up the you can't have everyone as a winner - if someone makes a killing it is at the expense of a later participant in the pyramid scheme. It's a cynical ploy that relies on the expectation that currency is fiat and not a measure of useful production (sorry kids, the window dressing calculation in bitcoin is not useful production), so the scam relies on supposed invention of another fiat currency.

To sum up, this forced comparison is just designed to make people think that their little non-bank scheme is not bad simply by pointing at a bad bank and pretending to look more respectable than a badly run bank.

As for C), possibility of collapse, with a ponzi scheme that can be replaced by certainty of collapse. I'm sure many of the early adopters of bitcoin that get out in time will do well financially, but I don't think they necessarily deserve even the respect that a convicted embezzling banker or other financial criminal gets. That may sound harsh but wake up - it's an incredibly fucking obvious scam kids and a million miles away from the cool stuff you read about in "Cryptonomicon" that it pretends to be.

 
at least we know for sure that Bitcoin isn't ponzi like some people claim ))

speaking of well known ponzi schemes you've mentioned above, i think it would be accounting and transferring nightmare moving  funds back and forth all the time, bitcoins -> fiat to bank -> mmm -> back to bank -> back to bitcoin, at least it wouldn't work as fast and like clock-work always on time and interest being accounted to the minute from what i've read about BTCST. _IF_ pirate runs any sort of ponzi - it would make sense to run his own, probably solely based in bitcoins and not to mess with fait at all.

[Serge]

back to the topic
$5.799!!!

and having Vladimir post in speculative rally thread is a major bull signal, huge mega rally ahead of us

[Yuhfhrh]

back to the topic
$5.799!!!

and having Vladimir post in speculative rally thread is a major bull signal, huge mega rally ahead of us

I agree I can't wait for $6!

[Serge]

$5.85
4 month high record

[Yuhfhrh]

$5.85
4 month high record

[FreeMoney]

I'm too busy staring at it to post it here, but go look at the MtGox all time log graph. It's the longest runway ever.

[disclaimer201]

I'm too busy staring at it to post it here, but go look at the MtGox all time log graph. It's the longest runway ever.

Yep, but runways can be used for landing and starting alike...Buckle up, everyone.

[BTCurious]

I'm too busy staring at it to post it here, but go look at the MtGox all time log graph. It's the longest runway ever.

[Technomage]

This is wild. Now the question is will someone put the breaks on, or have the guts to do that? This thing could go ballistic as well if buyers start to fear that the train is leaving the station.

My thought process is that breaking $6 is basically inevitable right now. We will go through that like it's nothing. I do think that someone will probably put the breaks on once we're at $6.x. Which is probably good, it's not necessarily healthy if this rally goes totally ballistic.

[bitdragon]

the breaks brakes have been on for a while and I don't see them returning so soon at 6.X
An Angel told me this would go wild before spring is over and she is mostly accurate. Less than a week left. Take a deep breath.

Edited spelling...

[Technomage]

the breaks have been on for a while and I don't see them returning so soon at 6.X

It's true that the brakes might not return that soon, the momentum of this rally might be too big for anyone to have the guts to try and stop it. Then it will continue until the price is somewhere around $7 - $8, or whatever is required for the momentum to ease a little and then there will be brakes.

There is a possibility of course for Bitcoin to become massively viral again, which would put $7 - $8 as a massive bear trap. That's speculation though, there is not enough hype yet to turn that zone from potential resistance to potential support.