[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

https://repo.getmonero.org/monero-project/ccs-proposals/-/merge_requests/168

One small step for Monero, one giant leap for Bitcoin.

This is THE killer app and few really understand the depth of game-chageyness in my opinion.

I don't know how long this will take to really emerge.  But in my opinion this will allow Monero to be Bitcoin's "privacy layer".

Eventually we will see some fairly staunch maximalists starting to wake up to the advantages of letting Monero do this work for Bitcoin thereby allowing Bitcoin to retain it's pristine auditability properties.  Keep an eye on Matt O'Dell.  He is staunchly anti-shitcoin, but he is also bending over backwards to push BTC privacy.  He may be rational enough to realize in the end that Monero really is an exception to the Maximialist's rule.  

Monero is poising itself PERFECTLY for this reality.  The tail emission, and the king of CPU mining.  This means Monero is more secure than the average shitcoin.

I was among the folks who was disappointed that we chose to add the tail emission.  In fact I was FIRMLY against it.  And still recognize it came at a cost.  The biggest of which was the change to the social contract, and putting Monero among the cryptocurrencies that have shown that unlike Bitcoin, the more centralized leadership can change the financial contract thereby putting a dent in the store of value property of Monero.

That said, not only will the tail emission do what it is good for, keeping the mining of Monero rolling, but in the same way that Monero can do privacy on behalf of Bitcoin, Bitcoin can do SOV for Monero.  This will leave monero to concentrate on it's killer app feature.  Allowing seamless flow between these two currencies will be pretty magical.  You can sacrifice auditability and SOV stuff for privacy and then come back as you please.

I have always seen a symbiotic future for these two projects, and am very pleased with the way this is coming together.  

Monero is so far ahead of anything else in the privacy game... it will remain useful and valuable for quite a while.

When these realities start to become more obvious to the masses we will start to see fairly significant price moves, IMHO.

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[Globb0]

As long as there is liquidity it can work.

If everyone is translating in 1 direction I want to be on the other side of the trade.

If the pool is big enough for both sides, then a variable spot price could make sense.

There is no p2p transaction then. Just a pool to pool transaction.


Exciting to see the details emerging.

[Hueristic]

This is THE killer app and few really understand the depth of game-chageyness in my opinion.

I don't know how long this will take to really emerge.  But in my opinion this will allow Monero to be Bitcoin's "privacy layer".

Eventually we will see some fairly staunch maximalists starting to wake up to the advantages of letting Monero do this work for Bitcoin thereby allowing Bitcoin to retain it's pristine auditability properties.  Keep an eye on Matt O'Dell.  He is staunchly anti-shitcoin, but he is also bending over backwards to push BTC privacy.  He may be rational enough to realize in the end that Monero really is an exception to the Maximialist's rule.  

Monero is poising itself PERFECTLY for this reality.  The tail emission, and the king of CPU mining.  This means Monero is more secure than the average shitcoin.

I was among the folks who was disappointed that we chose to add the tail emission.  In fact I was FIRMLY against it.  And still recognize it came at a cost.  The biggest of which was the change to the social contract, and putting Monero among the cryptocurrencies that have shown that unlike Bitcoin, the more centralized leadership can change the financial contract thereby putting a dent in the store of value property of Monero.

That said, not only will the tail emission do what it is good for, keeping the mining of Monero rolling, but in the same way that Monero can do privacy on behalf of Bitcoin, Bitcoin can do SOV for Monero.  This will leave monero to concentrate on it's killer app feature.  Allowing seamless flow between these two currencies will be pretty magical.  You can sacrifice auditability and SOV stuff for privacy and then come back as you please.

I have always seen a symbiotic future for these two projects, and am very pleased with the way this is coming together.  

Monero is so far ahead of anything else in the privacy game... it will remain useful and valuable for quite a while.

When these realities start to become more obvious to the masses we will start to see fairly significant price moves, IMHO.

Quite a few of these Maximialist's have their heads so far up their asses they will just bury their heads deeper and refuse to admit they were wrong. Its a shame really, cult mentality. Funny thing to see in a technological project but there you go.

[Millionero]

https://repo.getmonero.org/monero-project/ccs-proposals/-/merge_requests/168

One small step for Monero, one giant leap for Bitcoin.

What does it mean Febo

Would there be no more exchange fees? I mean or exchanges? Im intrigued to see how the pricing and valuing works.

I wish I would know and imagine all. Yes there will be only transaction fee. So high for BTC and low for Monero. I cant really imagine how this will look in practice. I am sure we will soon read about some ideas. Two people that will want to trade will still need some place to met and decide price. Atomic swaps should sort of make real decentralised exchanges possible and very easy to build and run.

But my point was that Bitcoin will gain a lot. Monero will at least for now gain a lot also, since some have troubles to acquire it with fiat.  

If two users run their own nodes and swap-daemons, there would be no fee of any kind.  Just a person to person trade at the agreed-upon price.
(If I got that wrong, someone correct me.)
In practice, if widespread adoption takes place, ordinary users won't have the geek-fu to run their own nodes.  So the monero-bitcoin atomic swap ecosystem may take on characteristics similar to the lightning network.

This from one of the comments in the link:
Our architecture permits the support of "lighter" clients, that delegate tasks of enforcing events on chain, they synchronize the blockchain state to the protocol state and must stay always-online (during the swap), that's what we call chain-syncers. They will be run locally by advanced users, but others would have a better UX possibly by delegating actions to semi-trusted third parties, that publishes txs conditional on specific events. This is somewhat similar to watchtower in lightning.

Of course the monero swap infrastructure isn't going to be plagued with the ills of a Rube Goldberg construction such as lightning, like channels and liquidity headaches.
Monero atomic swap: a simple back-and-forth, the way it oughta be.

[strawbs]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-irs-offers-a-625-000-bounty-to-anyone-who-can-break-monero-and-lightning

It's great to hear that the IRS need to offer a bounty to try to break monero. Confirms they can't do it  

May have something to do with the little rally we're seeing today too?

[Febo]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-irs-offers-a-625-000-bounty-to-anyone-who-can-break-monero-and-lightning

It's great to hear that the IRS need to offer a bounty to try to break monero. Confirms they can't do it  
May have something to do with the little rally we're seeing today too?

Those are just free audits of Monero code. It is only fair that taxes are sometimes well spent. We are still waiting for Monero to go over 0.01. It is taking unusually long.

[explorer]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-irs-offers-a-625-000-bounty-to-anyone-who-can-break-monero-and-lightning

It's great to hear that the IRS need to offer a bounty to try to break monero. Confirms they can't do it  
May have something to do with the little rally we're seeing today too?

Those are just free audits of Monero code. It is only fair that taxes are sometimes well spent. We are still waiting for Monero to go over 0.01. It is taking unusually long.

approaching 4 days above 0.008, getting stronger...

[Febo]

approaching 4 days above 0.008, getting stronger...

6 days now. This post will probably spook the price, but we are getting close to 11 days what was best of this year.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I was among the folks who was disappointed that we chose to add the tail emission.  In fact I was FIRMLY against it.  And still recognize it came at a cost.  The biggest of which was the change to the social contract, and putting Monero among the cryptocurrencies that have shown that unlike Bitcoin, the more centralized leadership can change the financial contract thereby putting a dent in the store of value property of Monero.

I'm not aware of the tail emission changing the social contract, as it was discussed before even bitMonero was released, and even though it wasn't implemented right away, a ~1% inflation was listed on Monero's announcement thread from day 1. Further, even though we may not have realized it at the time, the tail emission wasn't really optional, as the dynamic block size cannot function without it. Could you imagine if we decided against the tail emission and then years later realized we needed to hard fork it in? That would have been a complete disaster.

[kurious]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

[explorer]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

[slaman29]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-irs-offers-a-625-000-bounty-to-anyone-who-can-break-monero-and-lightning

It's great to hear that the IRS need to offer a bounty to try to break monero. Confirms they can't do it  
May have something to do with the little rally we're seeing today too?

Those are just free audits of Monero code. It is only fair that taxes are sometimes well spent. We are still waiting for Monero to go over 0.01. It is taking unusually long.

Best definition I've heard of in a long, long time. Every time I hear about people trying to crack this Bitcoin wallet or analyze that Monero transaction, I just keep thinking. Yes, go on and prove their worth, help people see how they have fit exactly what they were supposed to do in terms of security. Good for us.

[cAPSLOCK]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

[elrippos friend]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

Prediction for this year?

[cAPSLOCK]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

Prediction for this year?

Oh I am very bad at that sort of thing, but I will give a probable range for fun.

I would say Santa will likely bring us something between .009 and .013.

This is my conservative estimate, and I sort of hope it's right because:

If we are back down near -008 we are rangebound and if we are over .015 we are possibly going parabolic, and early IMHO.

That said, I base this off the idea that XMR is a proven old school alt that is therefor less likely to have a massive move up, but I also could see XMR decoupling from the momentum BTC has by either:

- being part of a quality alt "altseason"
- being recognized specifically as the state of the art privacy coin (finally)

In those cases we could see BTC prices that try to revisit the .03x mark.  But I see this as a remote chance by the end of the year.

[elrippos friend]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

Prediction for this year?

Oh I am very bad at that sort of thing, but I will give a probable range for fun.

I would say Santa will likely bring us something between .009 and .013.

This is my conservative estimate, and I sort of hope it's right because:

If we are back down near -008 we are rangebound and if we are over .015 we are possibly going parabolic, and early IMHO.

That said, I base this off the idea that XMR is a proven old school alt that is therefor less likely to have a massive move up, but I also could see XMR decoupling from the momentum BTC has by either:

- being part of a quality alt "altseason"
- being recognized specifically as the state of the art privacy coin (finally)

In those cases we could see BTC prices that try to revisit the .03x mark.  But I see this as a remote chance by the end of the year.

I am also quite bad at this, but my estimation is more or less the same than yours, maybe a bit more positve to have the upswing for 0,009x by the end of September with a spike to 0,036 in July 2021  

[Febo]

Finally! This should definitely make things started.

https://www.perkinscoie.com/images/content/2/3/v3/237411/Perkins-Coie-LLP-White-Paper-AML-Regulation-of-Privacy-enablin.pdf

[Hueristic]

Finally! This should definitely make things started.

https://www.perkinscoie.com/images/content/2/3/v3/237411/Perkins-Coie-LLP-White-Paper-AML-Regulation-of-Privacy-enablin.pdf

Privacy-enabling cryptocurrencies, commonly known as privacy coins, are enhanced versions of early cryptocurrencies
that were developed to protect the financial privacy of individuals and businesses alike. Each privacy coin leverages
innovative mechanisms that provide privacy, encryption, and security to its users. Alongside their positive effects,
however, these mechanisms have raised an important compliance question:
Is it possible for regulated entities to comply with anti-money laundering (“AML”) obligations when supporting
privacy coins?
The answer, in our view, is yes.
Not only do privacy coins provide public benefits that substantially outweigh their risks, existing AML
regulations properly and sufficiently cover those risks, providing a proven framework for combatting money
laundering and related crimes.
In reaching that conclusion, we profile several privacy coins, detail key AML regulations and intergovernmental
recommendations affecting privacy coins, and explain the measures that have allowed financial institutions,
intermediaries, and virtual asset service providers (collectively, “VASPs”) to comply with AML obligations
when facilitating privacy coin transactions. We also dispel the misconception that privacy coins are
fundamentally incompatible with AML compliance, focusing on measures that have allowed VASPs to comply
with AML obligations when conducting or facilitating privacy coin transactions.

[Febo]

Quote from the paper

Conclusion
Privacy coins reflect a nascent, but important, effort to safeguard our fundamental interest in personal and commercial
financial privacy. The AML risks of privacy coins, while real, do not require specific, tailored regulations that may pose
an unnecessary risk of stifling privacy coins’ growth. Rather, VASPs can adequately address those AML risks by
maintaining an effective, risk-based program. Allowing VASPs to support privacy tokens under current, tested AML
regulations strikes the appropriate policy balance between preventing money laundering and allowing beneficial,
privacy-preserving technology to develop

[Hueristic]

Looks like big dump but low volume, they keep trying to pull these tactics.


#ShakenTheTrees