[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

Who knows about Wycoff stuff?  I know nothing about it... but all the shapes look like things I have seen in wycoff example charts...

Have you got a link?  My eyes seem to be failing.

Heh.  I suppose those are teeny pictures.  But my thought is the monero chart looks a lot like the first part of the Wyckoff examples I always see...

If you are still interested look for the header "Accumulation: Wyckoff Events" In this article and you will see what looks a lot like the current XMR chart with all the Wyckoff anatomy.

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[cAPSLOCK]

Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?

But no matter how we slice it we start to see those early bags move around it's gonna spook the market.  That reality will never go away.

I honestly think one of  CSW's angles was to  lay out the legal precedent to be able to demand access (via a fork) to those early blocks in all three major Bitcoin forks.  Luckily not only is that plan stupid, but the legal world seems to be having none of his BS.

[Longshot78]

Does anyone think XMR will decouple from Bitcoin, to an extent. Or is it still strongly dependent on BTC?

Some people say that it will be another year before we reach the previous BTC ATH and another year or more until the new ATH.

Any chance that XMR will reach a new ATH in terms of BTC and USD before then?

Can it get back in to the top 10? Top 5?

[cAPSLOCK]

Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?

Oh, and by the way...  This is really becoming my favorite mental rabbit hole... the idea that Monero could effectively become a privacy side chain of Bitcoin.

Monero is the strong front runner for privacy.  Even better than the lightning network.  If we can get that ball rolling it stands the chance to be a bit of a black swan event in my opinion.  It would be a solid use case for a separate but cryptographically joined block chain to Bitcoin.  It's the next killer app.  Maybe?

[cAPSLOCK]

Does anyone think XMR will decouple from Bitcoin, to an extent. Or is it still strongly dependent on BTC?

Some people say that it will be another year before we reach the previous BTC ATH and another year or more until the new ATH.

Any chance that XMR will reach a new ATH in terms of BTC and USD before then?

Can it get back in to the top 10? Top 5?

I do believe there is a chance Monero decouples as you say.

One way to look at it is the major early alts are at cycle to a cycle and a half behind Bitcoin. Monero has only had one major rise. 

It is because Monero actually offers something BTC can't that it could express a higher value against BTC, and I think the possibility of that happening as the world heads tentatively into crypto is certainly non-zero.

[Longshot78]

I do believe there is a chance Monero decouples as you say.

One way to look at it is the major early alts are at cycle to a cycle and a half behind Bitcoin. Monero has only had one major rise. 

It is because Monero actually offers something BTC can't that it could express a higher value against BTC, and I think the possibility of that happening as the world heads tentatively into crypto is certainly non-zero.

I guess it depends on the impact of day to day usage. It's probably very small compared to the daily volume on exchanges but what if some people remember the stories about people spending BTC on markets that later turned out to be worth thousands? They might decide to keep a little on the side.

Are there any other coins that are actually used for something today?

Right now it's BTC, ETH and XMR.

Everything else is just used for trading and speculation based on predictions of future products and usage right?

Are Chainlink, Cordano, Polkadot and EOS actually being used for their intended purpose?

[cAPSLOCK]

Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

[cAPSLOCK]

Healthy pullback = Healthy pullback

[Febo]

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.
97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.
Will this start to make an impact?

The block reward is currently 987 XMR per day.  That is getting close to stock to flow ratio of Gold. But it will go below that in the next year.

I wonder what the Koreans are doing with their XMR. They were a big part of the run up last time right? Where will they sell?
Also, perhaps it's now a blessing that XMR wasn't on Coinbase all this time. To acquire XMR you had to look outside of the biggest exchanges.

Most of those volume was fake. Most of those exchanges are now charged for fraud making fake volume. Just check the news.

Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

Yup, when people trade also transact. Combining that will increased use that is going on continually for more then a year, we got a great day and a week for Monero transactions.


Monero Atomic Swaps implementation funding

https://ccs.getmonero.org/proposals/h4sh3d-atomic-swap-implementation.html

Monero Atomic Swaps will hep Monero short term but also help Bitcoin drastically long term.

[explorer]

Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

From Monero.how:

Code:

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
Monero     Bitcoin           Ratio
Oct 2020 (est) 559,057 9,612,227 5.82%
Sep 2020 396,854 9,495,331 4.18%
Aug 2020 381,555 9,793,583 3.90%
Jul 2020 331,181 10,158,131 3.26%
Jun 2020 340,895 9,192,440 3.71%
May 2020 400,871 9,092,682 4.41%
Apr 2020 365,875 8,702,021 4.20%
Mar 2020 303,291 8,904,203 3.41%
Feb 2020 231,953 9,439,548 2.46%
Jan 2020 257,942 9,612,337 2.68%
Dec 2019 216,720 9,430,057 2.30%
Nov 2019 212,716 9,243,776 2.30%

Looking to eclipse May  

Code:

TRANSACTIONS PER HOUR
974 tph
 
Last hour 974
24hr high 1056
24hr low 365
24hr avg. 673
7 day avg. 707
30 day avg. 636

Code:

TRANSACTION FEES PAID (LAST 100 TRANSACTIONS)

Txn fee (XMR/BTC) Txn fee USD

Monero (lowest) 0.000016 $ 0.0021
Bitcoin (lowest)0.000144 $ 1.6521

Monero (median) 0.000031 $ 0.0039
Bitcoin (median)0.000302 $ 3.4586

If I'm reading it correctly, XMR has similar circulation to BTC, ~1%  ~2% of the trading volume, ~1% of the price, and ~5% of the transaction count. Not to mention  ~0.1% of the transaction cost.

[explorer]

The block reward is currently 987 XMR per day.  That is getting close to stock to flow ratio of Gold. But it will go below that in the next year.

Seems like last week it was about half of that...  Per hour    My first try at mining.  Ya I guess it was a while ago, but the stark contrast backs up my earlier point on emission rate.

Damnit, I can't make this embed.

https://gfycat.com/coordinatedmeekgenet

[kurious]

Yeah - it's a pain to get it working. How's this?

[explorer]

Yeah - it's a pain to get it working. How's this?

Nicely done!

Thanks

[Febo]

I wonder when everyone else will join this guy from 2 days ago that fat finger bought 35k XMR up to $147 on Binance. I am bored of this $12x&$13x prices. Time to move on.

[cAPSLOCK]

I wonder when everyone else will join this guy from 2 days ago that fat finger bought 35k XMR up to $147 on Binance. I am bored of this $12x&$13x prices. Time to move on.

I always wonder about those.  Like you say was it a slip?  Or a drunken "eff it?". Or does the guy know/think something?

Seems much more than trival to throw 2.5-3 million bucks at something on a whim... but I suppose some can.

But my oijia board lines and graphs... we have a lot of room to strech out over the next hump.  I think i saw it as 145?  But 137 might be the top of it?  I still think 145 will offer resistence... in someones our friend on Binance fulfilled my prophesy.

[explorer]

   I really expected to revisit 0.0105 range.  Nope.  Off we go! 

[cAPSLOCK]

   I really expected to revisit 0.0105 range.  Nope.  Off we go!  

Wheres the volume though?  Although if we break this...  wooooo hooooooo.

And you know what I relish more than just seeing NGU?

XMR putting some of those ridonkulous shitcoins in the top 10 back in their place.

[birr]

what is ngu

[bitebits]

It is Twitterish, Number Go Up.

[Krimster]

Hashrate skyrocketing. Either more investors are targetting their power there, or some widespread botnet. Arguably, both are further signs of strength, tough...