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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3282868 times)
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October 04, 2020, 06:38:43 PM
 #42241

Got to 0.0103 today then back to 0.01 and now is was going up again. Would be nice to see 0.0105. Could rally out of it or just make new higher top and try again tomorrow or latter. There is still plenty of time today for all options.

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October 04, 2020, 09:17:14 PM
 #42242


Props to you and Febo for prompting me to look at this.  I keep coming back to it and thinking about it.

Morpheus' tweets in the above link really makes me smile:

One quote:

'It is as if @monero was to some extent BTC itself, and you wont find other coins that has this same pattern. The market evaluated both as THE SAME. This is HUGE because as you guys can see, Monero's transactions just keep increasing parabolically while Bitcoin's TX aren't.'

I hope this analysis proves to be valid and stays on track (and that transactions do keep growing) because it means the price now could perhaps be a couple of orders of magnitude short of where it's ultimately headed.

And that would be rather sweet.  Am now taking out some of the sells I have left on exchange from a couple of years back.  I used to think it was a good thing to provide liquidity in the market, but I am suddenly starting to feel less inclined to.

Wink

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October 04, 2020, 10:44:12 PM
 #42243

After about ten refreshes I finally was able to see that tweet.

Twitter has been really weird lately, I think they are trying to force signups.

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October 05, 2020, 12:23:03 AM
 #42244

The recent price surge looks more like market manipulation to me rather than it being due to recent news about the IRS and BitMEX. There is very little trading volume on the big exchanges so it is much easier to pump the price on a dodgy exchange like CITEX, which is where most of the volume is coming from.

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October 05, 2020, 04:24:13 PM
 #42245

The recent price surge looks more like market manipulation to me rather than it being due to recent news about the IRS and BitMEX. There is very little trading volume on the big exchanges so it is much easier to pump the price on a dodgy exchange like CITEX, which is where most of the volume is coming from.

Monero tradings was always low compared to other coins. Reason is that Monero is listed on less exchanges and on less exchanges with fake volume. CITEX? really. You can cut out volume there totally. Every single day.
What is happening to Monero have nothing to do with BitMex. BitMex of course could shocks whole crypto and with that also Monero. I dont monitor it that closely, so I dont really know how much more chances for shock there are now.
For the IRS free advertisement. Such events raise interest about Monero to people that never heard about it before. And is not just that. There was many more news. Like 40 companies enrolled on that IRS call. They choose only two. One of those 40 companies was also CypherTrace that made additional advertisement of Monero only few weeks before. Then there was also Perkinscoie legal opinion of how Monero transactions are totally compatible with KYC rules in USA and wider, that did not got that much recognition in media as it should. Combining all this with growth of transactions. Most if not all of this are totally free advertisement of Monero. Other coins are paying huge amounts of money for such advertisements.

Advertisement never instantly reflects on price. It reflects after some time. Here is me talking about it two weeks ago:

Also, right now there is so much news of Monero in media, so I am surprised there was no price action because of that.  At least some failed pump as it happened on 21th August.


Another thing I noticed lately is how more accurate are articles in cointelegraph and in other news, as they were in last 6 years. If there were any articles at all. There are different writers or they started looking much more deeply in Monero when writing an article.


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October 05, 2020, 05:32:51 PM
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 #42246


Another thing I noticed lately is how more accurate are articles in cointelegraph and in other news, as they were in last 6 years. If there were any articles at all. There are different writers or they started looking much more deeply in Monero when writing an article.



You can thank Monero Outreach for this. They’ve been working closely with journalists who publish stories about Monero and correcting them when they get it wrong.  Especially CoinTelegraph.
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October 05, 2020, 11:08:36 PM
 #42247

Morpheus' tweets in the above link really makes me smile:
One quote:
'It is as if @monero was to some extent BTC itself, and you wont find other coins that has this same pattern. The market evaluated both as THE SAME. This is HUGE because as you guys can see, Monero's transactions just keep increasing parabolically while Bitcoin's TX aren't.'

I hope this analysis proves to be valid and stays on track (and that transactions do keep growing) because it means the price now could perhaps be a couple of orders of magnitude short of where it's ultimately headed.

It is more then obvious that at least some people are trying to buy. But they cant without moving market to much. 

Considering stock to flow. I just noticed today that daily emission went under 1000 XMR a day what is 1.62% yearly. So very close to Golds yearly mining emission.

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October 06, 2020, 08:53:04 AM
 #42248

What if we had out own version of Greyscale?

I mean their reason for choosing Monero would be obvious, but it also means they are less likely to shout it from the rooftops.

They are soaking up the new supply and I think that's can only be a positive.


I wonder if they are here already? but anyway the seed of an idea is now sown. It comes down to who has all the money.



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October 06, 2020, 02:27:58 PM
 #42249

   Definitely accumulation going on.  Buy orders on polo up 25% and significant wall action keeping a lid on it.  Certainly a small fry exchange compared to the volume proportion of yesteryear, but indicative.  It would seem that this is gentleman.
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October 06, 2020, 09:21:12 PM
 #42250

   Definitely accumulation going on.  Buy orders on polo up 25% and significant wall action keeping a lid on it.  Certainly a small fry exchange compared to the volume proportion of yesteryear, but indicative.  It would seem that this is gentleman.

Yep, the sell side for XMR/BTC hasn't moved much on Polo, but the buy side is up a lot.  Monero is third on Polo for volume in BTC.  Not as high on the Polo Tether market - but still high there too.

In spite of current BTC dip, support is reasonably strong.  All still looking good. Supply tightening is starting to show.  That said, the next month or so is inevitably going to see fun and games in legacy financial markets to keep things unpredictable.

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October 07, 2020, 06:48:33 PM
 #42251

  Definitely accumulation going on.  Buy orders on polo up 25% and significant wall action keeping a lid on it.  Certainly a small fry exchange compared to the volume proportion of yesteryear, but indicative.  It would seem that this is gentleman.

Yep, the sell side for XMR/BTC hasn't moved much on Polo, but the buy side is up a lot.  Monero is third on Polo for volume in BTC.  Not as high on the Polo Tether market - but still high there too.

In spite of current BTC dip, support is reasonably strong.  All still looking good. Supply tightening is starting to show.  That said, the next month or so is inevitably going to see fun and games in legacy financial markets to keep things unpredictable.

Poloniex leading the XMR-BTC charge with aggressive buying.  Doesn't seem logical, but I trade(dabble for peanuts) there for legacy/laziness reasons, I guess I'm not alone.  Just seems odd, with such limited liquidity.

I guess after a 2 year break I'm still addicted, because I should be going to work, but chart watching and button poking is so much more entertaining  Tongue Grin Cheesy
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October 07, 2020, 07:35:51 PM
 #42252

It's funny you bring this up.  I have just been doing some looking into the places that are pushing volume, particularly the "legit ones"

Because I would think we could know something about where the volume is coming from if we know who trades where as in China, etc.  Or if it is likely to be a single actor.  If Polo is the big volume that second theory kind of lights up a little.
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October 07, 2020, 07:53:56 PM
 #42253

It's funny you bring this up.  I have just been doing some looking into the places that are pushing volume, particularly the "legit ones"

Because I would think we could know something about where the volume is coming from if we know who trades where as in China, etc.  Or if it is likely to be a single actor.  If Polo is the big volume that second theory kind of lights up a little.

I wouldn't say it's the big volume.  (At least) One entity is buying above general market consensus there,  hence higher price.  Yesterday, and today, big (for polo) limit buys @ .0105 just left to actually fill, as general market drops away instead of the more typical pulling and reinstating lower.  That is accumulation when applied to such a small piece of the pie.  Entertaining to speculate on the whys and wherefores.
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October 07, 2020, 11:22:56 PM
 #42254

I've found it amusing the last week watching someone try to shake the trees only to come up empty. Hope they lost their coins rather than sold into themselfs. Cheesy

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October 08, 2020, 04:52:23 PM
 #42255

It is god to see that not only a bug polished Monero GUI is ready 10 days before protocol upgrade. https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/j5qbq1/gui_v01701_oxygen_orion_released/
But also Leger https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/j6ob5w/ledger_nano_app_update_173_is_now_available/
and Trezor https://blog.trezor.io/firmware-update-for-trezor-model-t-version-2-3-4-for-monero-hard-fork-c2ff972101d3
built their upgrades. Monero ecosystem is definitely maturing.

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October 09, 2020, 02:48:06 PM
 #42256

Well we are a little above the $115 mark. 

So that's over the upper edge of cAPSLOCK's low range.  Hopping up one step would be good.  That said, mainly I am just happy it's still bullish and not looking at all like ending soon.

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October 09, 2020, 03:06:57 PM
 #42257

It's funny you bring this up.  I have just been doing some looking into the places that are pushing volume, particularly the "legit ones"

Because I would think we could know something about where the volume is coming from if we know who trades where as in China, etc.  Or if it is likely to be a single actor.  If Polo is the big volume that second theory kind of lights up a little.

I wouldn't say it's the big volume.  (At least) One entity is buying above general market consensus there,  hence higher price.  Yesterday, and today, big (for polo) limit buys @ .0105 just left to actually fill, as general market drops away instead of the more typical pulling and reinstating lower.  That is accumulation when applied to such a small piece of the pie.  Entertaining to speculate on the whys and wherefores.

There goes .0105 guy again.  Third day in a row pull back once his bags are filled?
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October 09, 2020, 03:40:40 PM
 #42258

Great Monero chart at the moment.

Look at the length of all those tails.


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October 09, 2020, 04:06:16 PM
 #42259

You guys beat me to it...





If we can decisively break this then I think we go to the next orbit.  This seems a little quick to me, but... hey?
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October 09, 2020, 04:12:34 PM
 #42260

Whoomp



It's a little early to bake a cake for sure... but there *appears* there could be volume behind this too!
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