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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3301097 times)
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kurious
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October 13, 2020, 10:17:37 AM
 #42281


50k BTC to me seems inevitable before summer, IMO.  

If that is you belief? do you see Monero rising with the wave against btc? or a decrease in ratio but still an net increase in monero price in bitcoin?

Last moontime it rose against BTC and of course, consequentially, in fiat terms (massively).  So if history at least rhymes...

Personally I can only agree with explorer.  BTC 50K by autumn '21 - then moon.  Monero following.  ATH by the time BTC hits 50K then moon.  You know I have been this bullish on BTC since the bottom, mate - I just think Monero will follow, too.

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October 13, 2020, 10:25:27 AM
 #42282

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.

Do you think that new supply is finally restricted enough? Is the majority of Monero now held by stronger hands? How many people bought between $140 and $500 and just want to break even?

97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.

Will this start to make an impact?

Or are there still whales and miners waiting in the wings looking to get rid of their bags?

Start?  It already has.  As explorer and I have noted with Polo, the XMR sell side has been depleting and the buy side has steadily increased.  The ratio is the highest I have seen.  If bagholders looking for exit exist they aren't even putting speculative high sells on.

You would think after such a long period of historically low prices there would indeed be some cashing in, but I cannot see it.  

Maybe big money is smart and knows it's way too early..?

If Aminorex was here, I reckon I know what he'd say.

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October 13, 2020, 10:28:41 AM
 #42283

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.

Do you think that new supply is finally restricted enough? Is the majority of Monero now held by stronger hands? How many people bought between $140 and $500 and just want to break even?

97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.

Will this start to make an impact?

Or are there still whales and miners waiting in the wings looking to get rid of their bags?



   It is the opinion of the seat of my pants, that the tide has definitely turned.  Miners can have only a tiny fraction of the control exhibited in the past.  Sure, they can sell their bags, but only once; there is no more easy resupply.  The whales accumulating for years have done so on purpose, and it would be in their own interest to reset the price higher by withholding, not flooding the market.  I imagine they will want to shake the tree pretty hard along the way, but it doesn't appear to be yielding much at this level.




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October 13, 2020, 10:55:57 AM
 #42284

I wonder what the Koreans are doing with their XMR. They were a big part of the run up last time right? Where will they sell?

Also, perhaps it's now a blessing that XMR wasn't on Coinbase all this time. To acquire XMR you had to look outside of the biggest exchanges.
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October 13, 2020, 12:12:48 PM
 #42285

Great posts cAPSLOCK, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Online financial privacy should be as simple as using cash offline, else it will remain a minority (like myself) using it as unfortunately with most privacy focused projects. However there is a group of users that would normally not care, but now they have to. Not sure how many DNM’s and its users need to get busted before it becomes clear you can’t use a coin with a transparent ledger, but both ends have a clear incentive looking for alternatives. And currently there really is only one.

Absolutely.

But there has only ever been one.  It's just that the penny has finally dropped.  That, coupled with a lack of liquidity is a perfect storm.

But hey, this is Monero, of course it's leaping up again.


Unfortunately there were, and still are, some imposters/scams like dark and snark coin clouding the vision of new users. They have large advertising budgets and are actively being promoted by the gemini twins, shilbert and armstrong. It is a shame really but I have always believed that the market will eventually catch up and Monero will properly reflect the Achilles heel of Bitcoin in its price, whatever that price point may be.

The Zcash is still definitely a viable scam, and part of it was it was started by a cryptography OG who I have even heard praise about from Nick Szabo who having known him from the mailing list days probably saw him as family, so to speak, and the fact he was using cutting edge exotic cryptography to achieve privacy was exciting for many people.  And I think Zooko (who blocked me on Twitter, lol) even fooled himself with his sweet little boy "How nice it is not to have to worry about groceries anymore" style.  As you said they had an effective marketing budget to dump on the Gemini twins and the Cue Ball.

Oh and Dash, even scammer still has SO MUCH momentum, and I suspect it large transaction volume is most likely real.  Goes to show what network effect does... amazing really.  Our CLI wallet and odd codebase really hurt us in that regard, but I think we still catch up and pass Dash eventually.

Another thing often glossed aver about Monero is that as far as shitcoins go it has just about the best possible track record aside from the crippled miner, and the fact we made a change at the social contract level early on (tail emmision, which although possibly justified is, in my opinion almost a "guys can you stop trading now" moment of centralization).  But past those things Monero is one of the most immaculate projects out there.  And will continue to overcome those blips just as BTC overcame it's own inflation bug, and concentrated early mining.  Although in BTC unlike Monero that last bit is still a specter hanging over the entire project like some giant guillotine.  Let's just hope Satoshi hasn't developed a coke habit since 2011.  And if he has hopefully he is using Monero, or XMR.TO and coins much later in his hoard. Smiley

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October 13, 2020, 12:20:08 PM
 #42286

In USD the next trading ranges are:

Between 95-115
Between 115-140
Open skies!

The timeframe is the harder question, and I think depends on the broader crypto markets.

I expect those two areas to put up fights.

The reason I am talking USD is because I think a lot of the new money coming in will be thinking in USD, and bitcoin's rise also brings us into those areas.

Looking at it in the more important XMR/BTC shows a similar potential progression, though.

This happened much faster than I thought it would... and it looks like the top end was closer to 135.  I guess the question now is do we spend some time in the 115-135 range or bust through that in a week or two?
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October 13, 2020, 12:24:13 PM
 #42287

Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?


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"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016
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October 13, 2020, 12:24:16 PM
 #42288

Who knows about Wycoff stuff?  I know nothing about it... but all the shapes look like things I have seen in wycoff example charts...





Have you got a link?  My eyes seem to be failing.

Heh.  I suppose those are teeny pictures.  But my thought is the monero chart looks a lot like the first part of the Wyckoff examples I always see...

If you are still interested look for the header "Accumulation: Wyckoff Events" In this article and you will see what looks a lot like the current XMR chart with all the Wyckoff anatomy.

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October 13, 2020, 12:27:06 PM
 #42289

Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?

But no matter how we slice it we start to see those early bags move around it's gonna spook the market.  That reality will never go away.

I honestly think one of  CSW's angles was to  lay out the legal precedent to be able to demand access (via a fork) to those early blocks in all three major Bitcoin forks.  Luckily not only is that plan stupid, but the legal world seems to be having none of his BS.
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October 13, 2020, 12:31:19 PM
 #42290

Does anyone think XMR will decouple from Bitcoin, to an extent. Or is it still strongly dependent on BTC?

Some people say that it will be another year before we reach the previous BTC ATH and another year or more until the new ATH.

Any chance that XMR will reach a new ATH in terms of BTC and USD before then?

Can it get back in to the top 10? Top 5?
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October 13, 2020, 12:31:24 PM
 #42291

Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?

Oh, and by the way...  This is really becoming my favorite mental rabbit hole... the idea that Monero could effectively become a privacy side chain of Bitcoin.

Monero is the strong front runner for privacy.  Even better than the lightning network.  If we can get that ball rolling it stands the chance to be a bit of a black swan event in my opinion.  It would be a solid use case for a separate but cryptographically joined block chain to Bitcoin.  It's the next killer app.  Maybe?
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October 13, 2020, 12:36:53 PM
 #42292

Does anyone think XMR will decouple from Bitcoin, to an extent. Or is it still strongly dependent on BTC?

Some people say that it will be another year before we reach the previous BTC ATH and another year or more until the new ATH.

Any chance that XMR will reach a new ATH in terms of BTC and USD before then?

Can it get back in to the top 10? Top 5?

I do believe there is a chance Monero decouples as you say.

One way to look at it is the major early alts are at cycle to a cycle and a half behind Bitcoin. Monero has only had one major rise. 

It is because Monero actually offers something BTC can't that it could express a higher value against BTC, and I think the possibility of that happening as the world heads tentatively into crypto is certainly non-zero.
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October 13, 2020, 12:52:36 PM
 #42293

I do believe there is a chance Monero decouples as you say.

One way to look at it is the major early alts are at cycle to a cycle and a half behind Bitcoin. Monero has only had one major rise. 

It is because Monero actually offers something BTC can't that it could express a higher value against BTC, and I think the possibility of that happening as the world heads tentatively into crypto is certainly non-zero.

I guess it depends on the impact of day to day usage. It's probably very small compared to the daily volume on exchanges but what if some people remember the stories about people spending BTC on markets that later turned out to be worth thousands? They might decide to keep a little on the side.

Are there any other coins that are actually used for something today?

Right now it's BTC, ETH and XMR.

Everything else is just used for trading and speculation based on predictions of future products and usage right?

Are Chainlink, Cordano, Polkadot and EOS actually being used for their intended purpose?
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October 13, 2020, 01:44:27 PM
 #42294



Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.
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October 13, 2020, 02:06:30 PM
 #42295

Healthy pullback = Healthy pullback

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October 13, 2020, 02:57:54 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (2)
 #42296

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.
97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.
Will this start to make an impact?

The block reward is currently 987 XMR per day.  That is getting close to stock to flow ratio of Gold. But it will go below that in the next year.


I wonder what the Koreans are doing with their XMR. They were a big part of the run up last time right? Where will they sell?
Also, perhaps it's now a blessing that XMR wasn't on Coinbase all this time. To acquire XMR you had to look outside of the biggest exchanges.

Most of those volume was fake. Most of those exchanges are now charged for fraud making fake volume. Just check the news.





Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

Yup, when people trade also transact. Combining that will increased use that is going on continually for more then a year, we got a great day and a week for Monero transactions.


Monero Atomic Swaps implementation funding

https://ccs.getmonero.org/proposals/h4sh3d-atomic-swap-implementation.html

Monero Atomic Swaps will hep Monero short term but also help Bitcoin drastically long term.


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October 13, 2020, 09:31:21 PM
Last edit: October 13, 2020, 10:21:40 PM by explorer
 #42297



Transaction volume.
 
A 10% spike in a single day, and a solid new ATH.

From Monero.how:

Code:
MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
Monero     Bitcoin           Ratio
Oct 2020 (est) 559,057 9,612,227 5.82%
Sep 2020 396,854 9,495,331 4.18%
Aug 2020 381,555 9,793,583 3.90%
Jul 2020 331,181 10,158,131 3.26%
Jun 2020 340,895 9,192,440 3.71%
May 2020 400,871 9,092,682 4.41%
Apr 2020 365,875 8,702,021 4.20%
Mar 2020 303,291 8,904,203 3.41%
Feb 2020 231,953 9,439,548 2.46%
Jan 2020 257,942 9,612,337 2.68%
Dec 2019 216,720 9,430,057 2.30%
Nov 2019 212,716 9,243,776 2.30%

Looking to eclipse May  Shocked


Code:
TRANSACTIONS PER HOUR
974 tph
 
Last hour 974
24hr high 1056
24hr low 365
24hr avg. 673
7 day avg. 707
30 day avg. 636


Code:
TRANSACTION FEES PAID (LAST 100 TRANSACTIONS)

Txn fee (XMR/BTC) Txn fee USD

Monero (lowest) 0.000016 $ 0.0021
Bitcoin (lowest)0.000144 $ 1.6521

Monero (median) 0.000031 $ 0.0039
Bitcoin (median)0.000302 $ 3.4586

If I'm reading it correctly, XMR has similar circulation to BTC, ~1%  ~2% of the trading volume, ~1% of the price, and ~5% of the transaction count. Not to mention  ~0.1% of the transaction cost.
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October 13, 2020, 09:59:51 PM
 #42298



The block reward is currently 987 XMR per day.  That is getting close to stock to flow ratio of Gold. But it will go below that in the next year.



Seems like last week it was about half of that...  Per hour  Cheesy  My first try at mining.  Ya I guess it was a while ago, but the stark contrast backs up my earlier point on emission rate.

Damnit, I can't make this embed.

https://gfycat.com/coordinatedmeekgenet
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October 13, 2020, 11:12:10 PM
 #42299

Yeah - it's a pain to get it working. How's this?


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October 13, 2020, 11:26:10 PM
 #42300

Yeah - it's a pain to get it working. How's this?



Nicely done!

Thanks
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