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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3282868 times)
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explorer
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October 12, 2020, 07:00:41 PM
 #42281

XMR's USD peak was around the 500 USD mark when Bitcoin last mooned.

Back then, let's say that was roughly a 40th (or 2/5%) of the Bitcoin price.   If this run 'season' plays out then a 50K BTC is far from difficult to imagine be end of 2021.   

Monero making it to a four figure dollar sum is not outside the realms of possibility.

I certainly think an ATH is likely.   2 x ATH - why not?

Definitely over 500.  I can't remember an exact peak, because it varied wildly between exchanges, but I did buy 4x Ledger Nano X  for well under 1 XMR.  I thought that was in the range of 6XX, peaking over 700, but that might have been CAD?  It was running about 80c USD at that time.  Well probably high US$5XX then, so never mind me  Tongue'

I'm  Expecting 1000-2000 USD.  Just call me a bull.  Nobody here will be shocked  Grin
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October 12, 2020, 07:16:40 PM
 #42282

Here's a little blast from the past:

what's the price going to be by dec. 31?

will we see $200?

Someone should make a thread where we guess exact prize.

I am quite certain price will go over USD ATH before the end of the year. If it will go beyond to $200 is also possible but that is not so sure thing anymore. If it will stay above $200 on Dec.31?  I would give 25% chance to that.

I doubt XMR will spend any time in the $200 range. The price will creep toward $150 before exploding all the way to $300, and then peak near $425 by mid December.

Going to effectively triple in price in the space of a month? Yeah I highly doubt that will happen.

Be pretty shocked if it hit $200 by end of 2017

  It happens.  Pretty regularly, actually.  Most recently XMR tripled in a week, back in August.

"It's happened before so it WILL happen again!"

Infallible logic!

You can read it any way you like.  Maybe you should short...


To merely revisit a 3 year old high would be too sad.  Shattering it will be far more satisfying.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=925649.0   Grin

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October 12, 2020, 07:24:21 PM
Last edit: October 12, 2020, 07:42:49 PM by explorer
 #42283

One year ago, XMR was $6.  A year before that, it was 40 cents. Today, XMR is $133.  One year from now, 1 XMR=$______

Three years later... $133.  So I was a bit ahead of myself, but we can try again.  One year from now, 1 XMR=$______


Actually we have ~5 weeks to go on that 3 years.  I expect $133 to be an historical footnote by that time.  Make It So!
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October 12, 2020, 07:27:02 PM
 #42284

ZOMG wow

What a chart


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.PLAY NOW.
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October 12, 2020, 08:06:11 PM
 #42285

Completely off topic...

The new "Feather Wallet" for Monero is an EXCELLENT implementation.  Especially if you like Electrum as it really is a strong, well done imitation of that interface, but with a lot of interesting built in features, like xmr.to for one thing.  It is non-proprietary and creates .keys files that are CLI compatible and uses the new 14 word seed scheme by default and yet is compatible with 13/25 word seeds as well.

Really for me my default desktop wallet now probably.
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October 12, 2020, 08:10:30 PM
 #42286

XMR's USD peak was around the 500 USD mark when Bitcoin last mooned.

Back then, let's say that was roughly a 40th (or 2/5%) of the Bitcoin price.   If this run 'season' plays out then a 50K BTC is far from difficult to imagine be end of 2021.   

Monero making it to a four figure dollar sum is not outside the realms of possibility.

I certainly think an ATH is likely.   2 x ATH - why not?

Definitely over 500.  I can't remember an exact peak, because it varied wildly between exchanges, but I did buy 4x Ledger Nano X  for well under 1 XMR.  I thought that was in the range of 6XX, peaking over 700, but that might have been CAD?  It was running about 80c USD at that time.  Well probably high US$5XX then, so never mind me  Tongue'

I'm  Expecting 1000-2000 USD.  Just call me a bull.  Nobody here will be shocked  Grin

Yep, I see 1000$ XMR entirely possible, certainly far, far more than a 50k BTC. I am, however, concerned about the fireworks from law enforcement, (from any and all countries) if XMR becomes widely used in DNM. Declaring it illegal altogether is, again, not outside the realms of possibility.   
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October 12, 2020, 08:41:44 PM
 #42287

XMR's USD peak was around the 500 USD mark when Bitcoin last mooned.

Back then, let's say that was roughly a 40th (or 2/5%) of the Bitcoin price.   If this run 'season' plays out then a 50K BTC is far from difficult to imagine be end of 2021.   

Monero making it to a four figure dollar sum is not outside the realms of possibility.

I certainly think an ATH is likely.   2 x ATH - why not?

Definitely over 500.  I can't remember an exact peak, because it varied wildly between exchanges, but I did buy 4x Ledger Nano X  for well under 1 XMR.  I thought that was in the range of 6XX, peaking over 700, but that might have been CAD?  It was running about 80c USD at that time.  Well probably high US$5XX then, so never mind me  Tongue'

I'm  Expecting 1000-2000 USD.  Just call me a bull.  Nobody here will be shocked  Grin

Yep, I see 1000$ XMR entirely possible, certainly far, far more than a 50k BTC. I am, however, concerned about the fireworks from law enforcement, (from any and all countries) if XMR becomes widely used in DNM. Declaring it illegal altogether is, again, not outside the realms of possibility.   

Your too late for this FUD the weak hands are gone.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 12, 2020, 08:49:23 PM
 #42288

XMR's USD peak was around the 500 USD mark when Bitcoin last mooned.

Back then, let's say that was roughly a 40th (or 2/5%) of the Bitcoin price.   If this run 'season' plays out then a 50K BTC is far from difficult to imagine be end of 2021.   

Monero making it to a four figure dollar sum is not outside the realms of possibility.

I certainly think an ATH is likely.   2 x ATH - why not?

Definitely over 500.  I can't remember an exact peak, because it varied wildly between exchanges, but I did buy 4x Ledger Nano X  for well under 1 XMR.  I thought that was in the range of 6XX, peaking over 700, but that might have been CAD?  It was running about 80c USD at that time.  Well probably high US$5XX then, so never mind me  Tongue'

I'm  Expecting 1000-2000 USD.  Just call me a bull.  Nobody here will be shocked  Grin

Yep, I see 1000$ XMR entirely possible, certainly far, far more than a 50k BTC. I am, however, concerned about the fireworks from law enforcement, (from any and all countries) if XMR becomes widely used in DNM. Declaring it illegal altogether is, again, not outside the realms of possibility.   

50k BTC to me seems inevitable before summer, IMO. 
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October 12, 2020, 08:50:21 PM
 #42289

Who knows about Wycoff stuff?  I know nothing about it... but all the shapes look like things I have seen in wycoff example charts...



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October 12, 2020, 08:56:55 PM
 #42290

Who knows about Wycoff stuff?  I know nothing about it... but all the shapes look like things I have seen in wycoff example charts...





Have you got a link?  My eyes seem to be failing.
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October 12, 2020, 11:56:27 PM
 #42291


50k BTC to me seems inevitable before summer, IMO.  

If that is you belief? do you see Monero rising with the wave against btc? or a decrease in ratio but still an net increase in monero price in bitcoin?



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WIN A LAMBO !

.
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October 13, 2020, 04:36:00 AM
 #42292



50k BTC to me seems inevitable before summer, IMO.  

If that is you belief? do you see Monero rising with the wave against btc? or a decrease in ratio but still an net increase in monero price in bitcoin?



  Compound growth overall, but expect massive volatility, so it might look very different from week to week.  Sometimes, I'm even correct!

add:

Remember when the price was low, like under a buck (2014, 2015, into 2016 IIRC)and wouldn't rise for anything?  There was such a wash of new coins, and such a small market pretty much just Poloniex, and a couple others that came and went (with the coins Tongue).  Just look at the size of the market now, and note the drastic and continuing squeeze on supply of fresh coins.  Transaction count is up, transactoin fees are down, development seems never to slacken, and its just time.

  
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October 13, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
 #42293

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.

Do you think that new supply is finally restricted enough? Is the majority of Monero now held by stronger hands? How many people bought between $140 and $500 and just want to break even?

97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.

Will this start to make an impact?

Or are there still whales and miners waiting in the wings looking to get rid of their bags?

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October 13, 2020, 10:17:37 AM
 #42294


50k BTC to me seems inevitable before summer, IMO.  

If that is you belief? do you see Monero rising with the wave against btc? or a decrease in ratio but still an net increase in monero price in bitcoin?

Last moontime it rose against BTC and of course, consequentially, in fiat terms (massively).  So if history at least rhymes...

Personally I can only agree with explorer.  BTC 50K by autumn '21 - then moon.  Monero following.  ATH by the time BTC hits 50K then moon.  You know I have been this bullish on BTC since the bottom, mate - I just think Monero will follow, too.

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October 13, 2020, 10:25:27 AM
 #42295

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.

Do you think that new supply is finally restricted enough? Is the majority of Monero now held by stronger hands? How many people bought between $140 and $500 and just want to break even?

97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.

Will this start to make an impact?

Or are there still whales and miners waiting in the wings looking to get rid of their bags?

Start?  It already has.  As explorer and I have noted with Polo, the XMR sell side has been depleting and the buy side has steadily increased.  The ratio is the highest I have seen.  If bagholders looking for exit exist they aren't even putting speculative high sells on.

You would think after such a long period of historically low prices there would indeed be some cashing in, but I cannot see it.  

Maybe big money is smart and knows it's way too early..?

If Aminorex was here, I reckon I know what he'd say.

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October 13, 2020, 10:28:41 AM
 #42296

I still have nightmares of huge bags being dumped on the market over and over again.

Do you think that new supply is finally restricted enough? Is the majority of Monero now held by stronger hands? How many people bought between $140 and $500 and just want to break even?

97% of the 18 million Monero has been mined compared to Bitcoin which is at 88% of 21 million.

Will this start to make an impact?

Or are there still whales and miners waiting in the wings looking to get rid of their bags?



   It is the opinion of the seat of my pants, that the tide has definitely turned.  Miners can have only a tiny fraction of the control exhibited in the past.  Sure, they can sell their bags, but only once; there is no more easy resupply.  The whales accumulating for years have done so on purpose, and it would be in their own interest to reset the price higher by withholding, not flooding the market.  I imagine they will want to shake the tree pretty hard along the way, but it doesn't appear to be yielding much at this level.




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October 13, 2020, 10:55:57 AM
 #42297

I wonder what the Koreans are doing with their XMR. They were a big part of the run up last time right? Where will they sell?

Also, perhaps it's now a blessing that XMR wasn't on Coinbase all this time. To acquire XMR you had to look outside of the biggest exchanges.
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October 13, 2020, 12:12:48 PM
 #42298

Great posts cAPSLOCK, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Online financial privacy should be as simple as using cash offline, else it will remain a minority (like myself) using it as unfortunately with most privacy focused projects. However there is a group of users that would normally not care, but now they have to. Not sure how many DNM’s and its users need to get busted before it becomes clear you can’t use a coin with a transparent ledger, but both ends have a clear incentive looking for alternatives. And currently there really is only one.

Absolutely.

But there has only ever been one.  It's just that the penny has finally dropped.  That, coupled with a lack of liquidity is a perfect storm.

But hey, this is Monero, of course it's leaping up again.


Unfortunately there were, and still are, some imposters/scams like dark and snark coin clouding the vision of new users. They have large advertising budgets and are actively being promoted by the gemini twins, shilbert and armstrong. It is a shame really but I have always believed that the market will eventually catch up and Monero will properly reflect the Achilles heel of Bitcoin in its price, whatever that price point may be.

The Zcash is still definitely a viable scam, and part of it was it was started by a cryptography OG who I have even heard praise about from Nick Szabo who having known him from the mailing list days probably saw him as family, so to speak, and the fact he was using cutting edge exotic cryptography to achieve privacy was exciting for many people.  And I think Zooko (who blocked me on Twitter, lol) even fooled himself with his sweet little boy "How nice it is not to have to worry about groceries anymore" style.  As you said they had an effective marketing budget to dump on the Gemini twins and the Cue Ball.

Oh and Dash, even scammer still has SO MUCH momentum, and I suspect it large transaction volume is most likely real.  Goes to show what network effect does... amazing really.  Our CLI wallet and odd codebase really hurt us in that regard, but I think we still catch up and pass Dash eventually.

Another thing often glossed aver about Monero is that as far as shitcoins go it has just about the best possible track record aside from the crippled miner, and the fact we made a change at the social contract level early on (tail emmision, which although possibly justified is, in my opinion almost a "guys can you stop trading now" moment of centralization).  But past those things Monero is one of the most immaculate projects out there.  And will continue to overcome those blips just as BTC overcame it's own inflation bug, and concentrated early mining.  Although in BTC unlike Monero that last bit is still a specter hanging over the entire project like some giant guillotine.  Let's just hope Satoshi hasn't developed a coke habit since 2011.  And if he has hopefully he is using Monero, or XMR.TO and coins much later in his hoard. Smiley

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October 13, 2020, 12:20:08 PM
 #42299

In USD the next trading ranges are:

Between 95-115
Between 115-140
Open skies!

The timeframe is the harder question, and I think depends on the broader crypto markets.

I expect those two areas to put up fights.

The reason I am talking USD is because I think a lot of the new money coming in will be thinking in USD, and bitcoin's rise also brings us into those areas.

Looking at it in the more important XMR/BTC shows a similar potential progression, though.

This happened much faster than I thought it would... and it looks like the top end was closer to 135.  I guess the question now is do we spend some time in the 115-135 range or bust through that in a week or two?
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October 13, 2020, 12:24:13 PM
 #42300

Regarding Satoshi, soon he won’t have to worry about it and just atomic swap his stash Wink

Of course depending if there’s enough “liquidity” for that??  Or does that not matter?


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XMR Open Alias: phishead@xmr.id
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016
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