[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Erik Goff]

It's true that xmr and eth are very correlated recently and I am not sure how to explain this. A sell wall is up it seems that someone wants the price to stay around like 240k to 280k sats.

It is because the smart investors will invest in Monero and Ethereum
But I like this speculation topic because a lot of people give good insights about the price.
And I have a question for you guys, I want to buy more Monero, and you guys are speculating a lot in this topic.
My last buy was at: 0.00289041 and at the moment it is already lower, so I could buy now but I have seen some of you saying that it would go down more before it goes up.
When do you think is the best time to buy?

Usually i just simply slaughter a goat in the bathroom and read its internals. For smaller trades i use a chicken. The point is, nobody knows for sure. We are in a heavily manipulated market (all alts are) so put your orders accordingly. The fundamentals for this coin are really good though, and one day people will hopefully start realizing that en masse. Personally i expect that the big whales will turn around soon again to make the coin go up.

[nickenburg]

It's true that xmr and eth are very correlated recently and I am not sure how to explain this. A sell wall is up it seems that someone wants the price to stay around like 240k to 280k sats.

It is because the smart investors will invest in Monero and Ethereum
But I like this speculation topic because a lot of people give good insights about the price.
And I have a question for you guys, I want to buy more Monero, and you guys are speculating a lot in this topic.
My last buy was at: 0.00289041 and at the moment it is already lower, so I could buy now but I have seen some of you saying that it would go down more before it goes up.
When do you think is the best time to buy?

Buy right now! If it breaks the trendline on 0.0024 you might want to sell again.

So you say buy right now and if it goes below 0.0024 I sell again because I will loose to much or something?
I really just want to buy at the low point and keep it for a long time man with this coin I don't really care in trading it much.
But I am from Holland to so you can maybe Pm me in dutch for some tips?

And yes I know it is a very volatile market and anything can happen, and nobody knows for sure what will happen
But ill try to buy as low as possible!

[griffen1102]

I really just want to buy at the low point

You and everyone else I'm sure but in all honesty I think 240k is the most important level here because of the buy wall there. I'm sure that would get pulled if price came close though and I would expect it to go back down to 200k. IF it is truly following ETH the way I posted in those charts above than a pull back to the .38 fib level from this semi double top would put us at 200k.

[nioc]

anything between the freezing point of water and mercury is a good buy

what I can't figure out is why when people step on an escalator they become paralyzed

[Johnny Mnemonic]

It certainly appears that XMR follows ETH... everytime I look it's almost exactly 1/10th the price.

BTW: I miss primer-

[lolikop]

It certainly appears that XMR follows ETH... everytime I look it's almost exactly 1/10th the price.

BTW: I miss primer-

Major breakout coming up next week...

[hitchingAride]

Yes the 1/10th ratio is true I often wonder if that will continue to be a long term phenomenon. Only time will tell  
I also wonder in the event of a bad crash in eth would monero follow or would that help xmr break out and be a positive force for us trader/holders.

[owm123]

It certainly appears that XMR follows ETH... everytime I look it's almost exactly 1/10th the price.

BTW: I miss primer-

Major breakout coming up next week...

You mean eth and homestead release?  If the hypothesis is right that xmr follows eth, then at the homestead release (14 march), xmr should go up (assuming eth will also go up).

[tifozi]

100 BTC buy wall @ 265 vs 65 BTC sell wall at 275. 

"They" are not even trying to mask it anymore. Thats your current trading range  Also it seems there are some teams who become active right after 8 PM Central US time.

[opennux]

Is it a sure sign of becoming insane when you start to enjoy the TrueCryptonaire postings? 

I'm asking myself this question as well since some time.
I've put my definite answer on hold, waiting for him to switch to whatever direction is opposite to mine. (so basically, when he becomes uber-ultra-bearish).
I speculate I'll enjoy less then.

This meta speculation is becoming too much for me to bear.

Bear?

Who said bear?

BEAR?!

BEAR MARKET?


SELL SELL SELL!!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it a sure sign of becoming insane when you start to enjoy the TrueCryptonaire postings? 

I'm asking myself this question as well since some time.
I've put my definite answer on hold, waiting for him to switch to whatever direction is opposite to mine. (so basically, when he becomes uber-ultra-bearish).
I speculate I'll enjoy less then.

I do not know if I am becoming ultra bearish. Obviously it might happen but then the price need to drop to low so that  I can accumulate.  
I hate scammers and con artists, therefore I like to be open about my behavior.
The statement of saying XMR looks slightly bearish did not make me to push a sell button but that was just the observation of a trend of a short period.
Long term we potentially have changed the trend from bearish to bullish (although the confirmation will be when the previous ATH will be broken and hopefully holds all the dumpers).
I do not see much reason to be bearish... Previously my main argument why XMR cannot rise has been high inflation basically. To me it appears the inflation is not high, at least not as high as it used to be.
For me 2014 and 2015 was more a "play time" with Monero but with current low inflation if the demand goes up, Monero could go parabolic.

I speculate that once XMR has risen to new ATH the most resistance has been cleared as many speculator in alts and crypto generally tend to be sceptical of breaking the ATH of the initial pump when a coin has been launched.
Correct me if I am wrong but Etherium was the first coin that did it and therefore I highly appreciate it as well.
I hope XMR will the next one doing exactly the same thing.

And indeed it is good to take into account that there are sometimes unexpected things happening and Monero could fail although it seems that money in dev fund will not be the issue which probably is the case in the most shitcoins and why they remain shitcoins, once the premine has been dumped, the developers run away.

[TPTB_need_war]

I draw your attention to this post and you may want to comment on my stated perspective:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1393703.msg14162127#msg14162127

[languagehasmeaning]

I do not see much reason to be bearish... Previously my main argument why XMR cannot rise has been high inflation basically. To me it appears the inflation is not high, at least not as high as it used to be.

That is an astute observation that I can agree with.

[TPTB_need_war]

I do not see much reason to be bearish... Previously my main argument why XMR cannot rise has been high inflation basically. To me it appears the inflation is not high, at least not as high as it used to be.

That is an astute observation that I can agree with.

The main threat is a crypto wide market melt down. XMR would outperform the rest and rise relative to BTC, but still come down relative the US dollar.

[smooth]

I draw your attention to this post and you may want to comment on my stated perspective:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1393703.msg14162127#msg14162127

Regarding Monero, while the price has been somewhat weak over a two year period (as you say, whatever the reason, there was certainly an unsustainable pump early on), the market cap is now well into the all-time-high zone. That is not something you see much (if ever) with two-year-old coins, other than Bitcoin.

I just clicked through every single older coin in the top 10 (ignoring the unseasoned ones such as Ethereum, Factom and Maidsafe). Not a single one other than Monero is anywhere near its market cap peak.

The same applies to all of the top 20, with the exception of FedoraCoin (TIPS) which has had an insane pump recently. What is going on there?

[bitebits]

So you say buy right now and if it goes below 0.0024 I sell again because I will loose to much or something?
I really just want to buy at the low point and keep it for a long time man with this coin I don't really care in trading it much.

And yes I know it is a very volatile market and anything can happen, and nobody knows for sure what will happen
But ill try to buy as low as possible!

Timing the bottom is impossible. But you can apply 'dollar cost averaging'. Just buy a fixed small amount on a daily basis over a predetermined period. This way your average buy-in price smooths out and you don't get stressed when the (p)rice goes up or down.

Edit: lol aminorex, changed it

[aminorex]

Unless it is Mexican jumping rice.

Always stresses me the frack out.

*ba dum tum*tsssch*

[elrippo]

mhh thinking about to sell all my moneroj. It looks like dash will become the leader of anon

It's the difference between short and long term thinking.

To open up, I will share my latest price/scenario analysis for Monero. I did it for the following 32 months (the remainder of this year, and the 2 following years). As it was price scenario, the only variable actually mapped was price, the reasons why the price might go up, down or stay the same, were all approximated as part of the probabilities.

The scenarios had 6 possible prices: 1000, 100, 10, 1, 0.1 and 0 USD, and 0 was considered a terminal failure after which no recovery could happen. Each timepoint (end of year 2015, 2016, 2017) and price were assigned with a conditional probability based on the price in the previous timepoint.

It was always possible to go to 0, the probability that it would happen in a given period ranged from 5-24%. Also every lower price point was always possible. The increase in price was only deemed possible to be 10-200x per period though, excluding black swans. (Much larger price increases are not even uncommon in crypto - BTC had 6400x in less than a year in 2010-2011, and some premined coins have had even larger).

The complete table of conditional probabilities used (expressed in full %) is as follows:

Code:

price	2015	16/0.1	16/1	16/10	16/100	17/0.1	17/1	17/10	17/100	17/1000
10000									1	9
1000				1	5			1	12	45
100	2		2	15	50		1	12	45	35
10	15	2	15	40	33	1	10	45	32	4
1	46	20	48	30	5	10	50	32	4	1
0,1	25	54	25	6	1	65	31	4	1	1
0	12	24	10	8	6	24	8	6	5	5

When calculated, it yielded the following price scenario probability table for the end of 2017:

Code:

price	Prob....	EV
10000	0,0642 %	6,42
1000	0,7535 %	7,54
100	3,9680 %	3,97
10	11,0986 %	1,11
1	23,1005 %	0,23
0,1	27,2754 %	0,03
0	33,7398 %	0,00

It looks like that an investment in Monero will return a loss of 80% or more in 61% probability, which is not promising. Also the probability of a rise to 1000 USD or more (reaching the historical peak in BTC marketcap, in about 2/3 of the timeframe that BTC reached it from launch) is at less than 1%, a reality check confirming the conservative assumptions.

Yet the EV of XMR in the end of the period (the sum of the partial EV in the above table) is 19.29 USD, a 38x gain in 32 months, with an annual expected return of 293%. When we evaluate this result, it is notable that 3/4s of the EV is produced from scenarios where XMR achieves the current size of BTC, or more. It is these scenarios that must exist to make the coin a stellar investment.

Now I don't want to bash Dash, but I haven't seen evidence that it could realistically (<1% (above) is still realistic, 0% is not) achieve such a prominent long-term position.

To create a fat tail probability distribution, there must be few flaws in the system. Dash has too many:
- single developer
- premine
- lying about the premine
- masternodes
- deficient anonymity.

It is like physically reaching the moon. The spacecraft does not need to be high-end, but if there are 5 large holes in its different systems, it soon tilts the odds of actually reaching the moon to become slim.

Monero, on the other hand, seems quite antifragile. The only problem that is as severe as the ones listed above for Dash, is
- botnet mining.

The developers have correctly understood that the potential and payoff for Monero is not in the order of 10-100x the current price, but 1000x or more. The priorities of development are set accordingly.

If Monero and Dash are mooncraft, Monero's design philosophy is to maximize the probability of hitting moon, and the resulting payoff, while Dash concentrates on getting as many people on board as possible.

Dear Risto,
could you be so kind to reevaluate your calculations from April 2015. I think it would be interesting to see what happens to thos assumptions with nearly a year more of MONERO 

[elrippo]

Having an addictive game doesn't hurt either.  

While the game is in development, the designer indulges himself in the mysteries of the ancient civilizations:

Just found out that the midpoint of the great chamber of the Kheops Pyramid is situated at such a point (29.9792458° N) that it agrees with the speed of light in vacuum in 9 figure precision (299,792,458 m/s, exact value), corresponding to 3.3 centimeters precision in the placement of the chamber. This is the most astounding coincidence that I have found during my longstanding interest in such. Youtube 1 minute.

It handsomely beats even the values of Pi and e found in Genesis 1:1 and Gospel of John 1:1 in precision. (There is also the well-known 5-digit value of Pi in 1. Kings, quoted from the sceptic site for added credibility among Bible non-believers. This establishes the circumference of the vessel in question in the verse, with 0.5 mm precision given that the diameter was an exact value.)

BUY
BUY

[elrippo]

Having an addictive game doesn't hurt either.  

While the game is in development, the designer indulges himself in the mysteries of the ancient civilizations:

Just found out that the midpoint of the great chamber of the Kheops Pyramid is situated at such a point (29.9792458° N) that it agrees with the speed of light in vacuum in 9 figure precision (299,792,458 m/s, exact value), corresponding to 3.3 centimeters precision in the placement of the chamber. This is the most astounding coincidence that I have found during my longstanding interest in such. Youtube 1 minute.

It handsomely beats even the values of Pi and e found in Genesis 1:1 and Gospel of John 1:1 in precision. (There is also the well-known 5-digit value of Pi in 1. Kings, quoted from the sceptic site for added credibility among Bible non-believers. This establishes the circumference of the vessel in question in the verse, with 0.5 mm precision given that the diameter was an exact value.)

I think you should watch this -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnXkgxFC30s
I hope you speak some german Risto, because this is a documentary by mathematitians and physichians, not by geologists 

I love that guy, an aeronautic engineer 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFpG4fTiz1g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7Hu7oOVvHk

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