[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

You guys.... hedge funds?  Really?  ...I would much rather the humble nerds and little people have a taste first. ...If a hedge fund gets richer, no one gives a shit.  

Hedge funds are oft vilified, but you know who banks most of the gains?  Pension funds.  Grossly underfunded pension funds.  Hedgies make money the old fashioned way:  With OPM (other people's money).  Yes, they sometimes (not usually, but if they are good, certainly) bank outsized gains, and charge exorbitant fees.  It is a sweet business  if you are good at it, and the reward is quite disproportionate to the social benefit in such cases.  However, keeping pension funds in the black is an enormous social benefit.  And it is about 50% of the sink for hedgie gains.  ~20% is probably insurance, ~4% is high net-worth punters, and the rest is internal to the industry, with about 10% going to the managing partners.

Yes, it is not as efficient a redistribution mechanism as direct grass-roots XMR investment.  But I would argue that it is far more efficient than state-socialism!  I would not avoid the market.  I just think it is premature to take the market seriously, except on an opportunistic basis.

[Hueristic]

Anyone have an analysis on the XMR drop (on polo) in the last few days? It's been climbing back up over the past month or so (in particular), but it's dropped a steady 25k under 300k sats and remained there for some time now. It was peaking at 300k-320k at points last week.

The tree's are shaking to see what falls out.

BTW I have been trying to find a country where an exchange can be hosted that does not cow to fincen but have not as of yet found a list. I had thought The Isle of Mann was one but apparently not after reading this. Boring ass read, skip all the agreed upon terms.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/treaties/Documents/FATCA-Agreement-Isle-of-Man-12-13-2013.pdf

Basically no such country exists, not any more. Singapore and Hong Kong were the last holdouts I knew of and they're towing the line now too.
Andorra, Monaco, wherever.

Basically? Or not at all? Thx for the input BTW.

Guys cmon... Let's be real with this hedge fund bullshit. We're going to do more harm than help if we were to pitch monero to a hedge fund right now. Unless that hedge fund manager is computer literative, he/she is going to have to store their stash on mymoner.com and let's be honest, that's not how you want to pitch an idea to a hedge fund. Pet focus on the now before we get ahead of ourselves here.

I agree this should be on the todo list after gui release. Is there anyone actively keeping one? I noticed when I asked who will be handling marketing there was nothing but silence. Is that because MEW has been dissolved and is a bit of a "touchy subject" now?


BTW I have been trying to find a country where an exchange can be hosted that does not cow to fincen but have not as of yet found a list. I had thought The Isle of Mann was one but apparently not after reading this. Boring ass read, skip all the agreed upon terms.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/treaties/Documents/FATCA-Agreement-Isle-of-Man-12-13-2013.pdf

There is no one really "appointed" to handle the marketing currently. There is a trello board for Monero community contributions currently though:

https://trello.com/b/5R2ly4mV/monero-community-contributions

Alternatively, when we really want to market Monero we could create some kind of slack channel and invite the ones who are interested (and capable) to do so.

What ever happened to that XMRPromotions kid? He jumped in with both feet then disappeared. My concern is that all these great Ideas that shouldn't be followed up on until after GUI release will be lost in this monster thread if no-one is making note of them.

AFA testing the trezor firmware, If I had one I would. But I just don't hold enough to justify getting one. I doubt many XMR holders own one ATM because the support doesn't exist yet, kind of a catch 22.

With finex now offering eth from monday it seems that this would be a good time to pump monero up to new highs and widen the story to an alt-coin bubble..

why would news about eth and bitfinex affect monero?

Adds to the Volume On Polo.

http://moneroinvestment.com/

Helps you in pitching.

Thanks, Great info!

Anyone have an analysis on the XMR drop (on polo) in the last few days? It's been climbing back up over the past month or so (in particular), but it's dropped a steady 25k under 300k sats and remained there for some time now. It was peaking at 300k-320k at points last week.

People were mistakenly expecting me to get bearish and therefore selling because historically when I have been bearish it has been a good time to exit or shake a few coins out.

People know you are a guppy that cannot move markets.

...

That screenshot is funny as I have control of what shows up on my screen so that never did nor ever will. Lol

[aminorex]

BTW I have been trying to find a country where an exchange can be hosted that does not cow to fincen

Basically no such country exists, not any more. Singapore and Hong Kong were the last holdouts I knew of and they're towing the line now too.
Andorra, Monaco, wherever.

Start with countries off-sides from the U.S. which aren't under international sanctions.  Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, UAE, Uruguay, Fiji, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Laos, Myanmar....

[dEBRUYNE]

That screenshot is funny as I have control of what shows up on my screen so that never did nor ever will. Lol

It's merely a bitcoinwisdom screenshot, but adblocker is currently "taking a stand against censorship" which is quite ironic in my opinion. See:

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/amnesty-adblock-censorship/

[Hueristic]

BTW I have been trying to find a country where an exchange can be hosted that does not cow to fincen

Basically no such country exists, not any more. Singapore and Hong Kong were the last holdouts I knew of and they're towing the line now too.
Andorra, Monaco, wherever.

Start with countries off-sides from the U.S. which aren't under international sanctions.  Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, UAE, Uruguay, Fiji, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Laos, Myanmar....

Thanks, I'll check these out when I get a chance. Out of that list I would think UAE or Venezuela would be the safest?

That screenshot is funny as I have control of what shows up on my screen so that never did nor ever will. Lol

It's merely a bitcoinwisdom screenshot, but adblocker is currently "taking a stand against censorship" which is quite ironic in my opinion. See:

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/amnesty-adblock-censorship/

Oh, I like that! I Use Adblock Plus or Ublock/ghostery and noscript so even that doesn't get through. But I'd love to see a web page dedicated to just those ads! I'd click on them just because I fucking Hate censorship. goddamn Nanny state. And I don't like Adblock accepting cash from these mega corps to whitelist them either!

[lolikop]

There is almost no one selling XMR those sell walls will be taken out soon for a new pump

[TrueCryptonaire]

I agree the pump has been ordered and we are waiting for the delivery.  

Bad news for all the bears: I am still bullish which has historically been a good sign.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iI3OB14Q0c

[pönde]

Where are you trading at and with what app? I'm using Poloniex for buying my Monero, but the UI is soooo slow and nearly broken on my android.

 Polo crashes my phone, and my mediocre laptop barely functions.  Crazy resource hog.  Since I don't trade much, I can put up with it to buy my moneroj.  It sure would be nice to have a 'light' version with fewer features though.

I also don't trade much and would not attempt it at Polo on my new android phone.  I find it almost impossible to scroll through the order book.  I did cancel an order once.

To check the price I use bitcoinwisdom, no lag at all.  One stop shopping

You can scroll down and click the Switch to Mobile Version tab at the end poloniex.com site. Or just put m.poloniex.com to the address bar. Mobile version is running just fine with both phone and desktop/laptop.

The Desktop is very sticky also on my laptop, so I use the Mobile Version without any problems. For some reason the Desktop Version is running just fine on my Android Phone. I just do not understand how it is possible. But it is. I anyway use the Mobile Version also on my phone while the text fits better to a small screen.

[lolikop]

I expect a pump to 400K within a couple of hours

[aminorex]

I expect a pump to 400K within a couple of hours

Perhaps there is no explanation needed beyond an undervalued state, yet I feel compelled to ask:  Pray tell, why?

[americanpegasus]

I don't even know what I drew here, but it's pretty.  Monero fibbonacci arcs and fans for March: 
 


 

[Bicmac1973]

My picture is not so nice, but it is simple enough for me to interpret it:



6 h BBand slowly contracts, triangle will close in 36 to 48h. And then (!): it will go up or down!

EDIT: Thanks for technical advice, with you guys I get a little bit smarter every day!

[dEBRUYNE]

My picture is not so nice, but it is simple enough for me to interpret it:



6 h BBand slowly contracts, triangle will close in 36 to 48h. And then (!): it will go up or down!

EDIT: I would really like to know how you manage to post images in this forum ...

You have to upload them to a website like imgur.com. Then place the link imgur provides you with between [img][./img].

[Dotto]

I don't even know what I drew here, but it's pretty.  Monero fibbonacci arcs and fans for March: 
 


 

That´s a pice of graphic design. What sofware/web is?

[americanpegasus]

That´s a pice of graphic design. What sofware/web is?

https://cryptowat.ch/poloniex/xmrbtc/4h

It's da best.  Move over Bitcoin Wisdom.

[Bicmac1973]

That´s a pice of graphic design. What sofware/web is?

https://cryptowat.ch/poloniex/xmrbtc/4h

It's da best.  Move over Bitcoin Wisdom.

Looks nice but I have'nt found out yet how to zoom market depth indicator further out. On bitcoinwisdom, I can see e.g. the 250 sat wall, when I set the market depth indicator to 'max'.

[aminorex]

Mining difficulty just passed 1 gig - for the first time since the listing spikes, AFAIK.  This means that dumping by nearsighted miners doesn't start until a higher price level.

Everything I see is consistent with the thesis that this price zone is the new "quantum foam", the zero-point quasi-equilibrium.  We have not even begun yet.  I still think BTC hedging flows and ETH diversification flows caused the price to level-up from a sticky level, but I no longer fear drops, because they will all fill in double-time, as miner dumps cease to supply below the USD $1.10 mark.  For those who mark their book in BTC, they are still subject to the FOMU pain of a BTC ramp, however.  Personally, I mark my book in XMR these days, and have done for a long while.  

I think: The regret risk of buying at this level is low enough to compel the resumption of DCA.  And: In a stable BTC world the USD level of "zero-point" should rise 4-5% monthly, unless the mining difficulty changes significantly and persistently.  Which is why holders should be miners, if they have a rational neuron in their cerebrum.

EDIT: Correction - I later learned that it has intermittently passed 1 gig at least once before during this month.  See post regarding monero.net below.

[iCEBREAKER]

Start with countries off-sides from the U.S. which aren't under international sanctions.  Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, UAE, Uruguay, Fiji, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Laos, Myanmar....

Thanks, I'll check these out when I get a chance. Out of that list I would think UAE or Venezuela would be the safest?

Those two are powder kegs with lit fuses.

You need non-confiscatory political stability and citizens that understand how to civilization.   Fiji/Seychelles are tiny, isolated paper statelets with backward/primitive natives.

That limits the list to Uruguay, with Laos and Myanmar tied for a very distant second place.

LMK if you need help down there.  I love Tannat! 

[iCEBREAKER]

I no longer fear drops, because they will all fill in double-time, as miner dumps cease to supply below the USD $1.10 mark.

Overconfidence is the market's cue to surprise us and take our money, like the proverbial man getting mugged while walking across a meadow.   

[explorer]

I no longer fear drops, because they will all fill in double-time, as miner dumps cease to supply below the USD $1.10 mark.

Overconfidence is the market's cue to surprise us and take our money, like the proverbial man getting mugged while walking across a meadow.   

I dunno.  The times, they are a-changin'...  difficulty rising, block reward dropping, community growing.  A new, higher floor price seems likely to me.