[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Days]

So I've been meaning to put some money on /u/fluffyponyza's Monerodice.net for a while now and give it a spin, but for some reason only just got around to it.

Before we begin though, what's the #1 rule of gambling? Look at the money you're about to gamble, pretend its already gone and the only thing you got in return was the entertainment of gambling it away. Is that ok? If so, proceed. If not, reduce the size of your bankroll.

Setup

For me, I had 10 Monero in my Tippero account that I didn't mind losing, and a long boring day of lectures to sit through. So I transferred them over from Tippero to Monerodice, and poof - no transaction difficulties or excessive confirmations. I checked back a few minutes later and everything was there.

The site also lets you add 2FA to your account which is nice, and gives it an air of legitimacy. It's especially nice since I can't always be bothered to login to a dice site with a secure computer - yesterday I wanted to play on a mobile for example.

Play

You surely already know how a dice site works, and this one has a tiny < 1% house edge, a portion of which goes to support the devs anyway. You can set your rolls and odds all the way from a "x2" where you have to beat a roll of 50.50, all the way to a moonshot chance of 5,000x'ing your money where you have to beat a number well above 99.98.

However my favorite bet was the 1.10x multiplier which carries a 90% chance of winning. Maybe I'm just bad at arithmetic (I am), but this bet seems to carry no house edge? I can bet 10 Monero, and if I roll less than 90.00 (or greater than 10.00, players choice), I win eleven back. This also seems to be the most popular bet on the site.

While bored out of my mind in my lectures, I devised what I call "Gauntlet One", which aims to 5x your initial wager with descending chances of ruin, assuming you pass the initial x2 wager.

    Roll 1: x2 (50%)
    Roll 2: x1.5 (66%)
    Roll 3: x1.33 (75%)
    Roll 4: x1.25 (80%)

I'm sure if you work out the probability of surviving all the rolls, it equates to approximately 20%, but this is far more exciting than a one-off shot at 5x'ing a bet.

Anyhow, with a couple of lucky button presses, scaling up a few winning bets, and scaling back bets on losses, I managed to work that initial 10 Monero to 15, then 25, then 33, and ended the night with a win of 40 Monero! Thanks for the free money, and I figured I would write this review now before I lose it all today.

In any case, the site works fine on my iPhone, but you have to remember to click the roll button one time to highlight it, and a second to roll it (if you double click it, that's two rolls so be careful!). Also be warned if you click a 'Go' instruction on the iPhone keyboard that's permission to go ahead and roll too.

Other Features

The site also has great stats where you can see recent bets/wins/losses as well as big bets recently. It also has a basic troll/whine box where you can complain about losing all your Monero, and you can also see a graph of the site's profit/loss (part of the provably fair metric). Players have the option to invest a little of their money into the site and share in the small house edge, but who has time for having a house advantage when you can beat long odds for much more?

I also like that the site explicitly shows you a "maximum win" amount, which is significant but also fair. It prevents me from wondering if the owner would toss me into the back alley should I accidentally hit a real moonshot. For those who want to test their fortunes, that amount is currently set at a whopping 28,000 Monero. Remember not to gamble more than you can afford to lose!

Summary

It would be hard to ask for a better dice site than this, but that doesn't mean the field isn't wide open. There is still room for a quality poker site, blackjack game, as well as something with a bit more flash and dazzle (like slots). Play responsibly, legally, and if you are an entrepreneur consider what other sites you might create to help bolster the Monero universe!

Great review Mr. Pegasus. Very useful and thanks for doing it.

He forgot to mention that FluffyPony is taking 10% of all winnings, and he also did not mention that the highest winner (21800) Moneros is also another Monero develop Othe. So much for developing the coin

[wpalczynski]

So I've been meaning to put some money on /u/fluffyponyza's Monerodice.net for a while now and give it a spin, but for some reason only just got around to it.

Before we begin though, what's the #1 rule of gambling? Look at the money you're about to gamble, pretend its already gone and the only thing you got in return was the entertainment of gambling it away. Is that ok? If so, proceed. If not, reduce the size of your bankroll.

Setup

For me, I had 10 Monero in my Tippero account that I didn't mind losing, and a long boring day of lectures to sit through. So I transferred them over from Tippero to Monerodice, and poof - no transaction difficulties or excessive confirmations. I checked back a few minutes later and everything was there.

The site also lets you add 2FA to your account which is nice, and gives it an air of legitimacy. It's especially nice since I can't always be bothered to login to a dice site with a secure computer - yesterday I wanted to play on a mobile for example.

Play

You surely already know how a dice site works, and this one has a tiny < 1% house edge, a portion of which goes to support the devs anyway. You can set your rolls and odds all the way from a "x2" where you have to beat a roll of 50.50, all the way to a moonshot chance of 5,000x'ing your money where you have to beat a number well above 99.98.

However my favorite bet was the 1.10x multiplier which carries a 90% chance of winning. Maybe I'm just bad at arithmetic (I am), but this bet seems to carry no house edge? I can bet 10 Monero, and if I roll less than 90.00 (or greater than 10.00, players choice), I win eleven back. This also seems to be the most popular bet on the site.

While bored out of my mind in my lectures, I devised what I call "Gauntlet One", which aims to 5x your initial wager with descending chances of ruin, assuming you pass the initial x2 wager.

    Roll 1: x2 (50%)
    Roll 2: x1.5 (66%)
    Roll 3: x1.33 (75%)
    Roll 4: x1.25 (80%)

I'm sure if you work out the probability of surviving all the rolls, it equates to approximately 20%, but this is far more exciting than a one-off shot at 5x'ing a bet.

Anyhow, with a couple of lucky button presses, scaling up a few winning bets, and scaling back bets on losses, I managed to work that initial 10 Monero to 15, then 25, then 33, and ended the night with a win of 40 Monero! Thanks for the free money, and I figured I would write this review now before I lose it all today.

In any case, the site works fine on my iPhone, but you have to remember to click the roll button one time to highlight it, and a second to roll it (if you double click it, that's two rolls so be careful!). Also be warned if you click a 'Go' instruction on the iPhone keyboard that's permission to go ahead and roll too.

Other Features

The site also has great stats where you can see recent bets/wins/losses as well as big bets recently. It also has a basic troll/whine box where you can complain about losing all your Monero, and you can also see a graph of the site's profit/loss (part of the provably fair metric). Players have the option to invest a little of their money into the site and share in the small house edge, but who has time for having a house advantage when you can beat long odds for much more?

I also like that the site explicitly shows you a "maximum win" amount, which is significant but also fair. It prevents me from wondering if the owner would toss me into the back alley should I accidentally hit a real moonshot. For those who want to test their fortunes, that amount is currently set at a whopping 28,000 Monero. Remember not to gamble more than you can afford to lose!

Summary

It would be hard to ask for a better dice site than this, but that doesn't mean the field isn't wide open. There is still room for a quality poker site, blackjack game, as well as something with a bit more flash and dazzle (like slots). Play responsibly, legally, and if you are an entrepreneur consider what other sites you might create to help bolster the Monero universe!

Great review Mr. Pegasus. Very useful and thanks for doing it.

He forgot to mention that FluffyPony is taking 10% of all winnings, and he also did not mention that the highest winner (21800) Moneros is also another Monero develop Othe. So much for developing the coin

The house edge was mentioned which is 1% and someone has to pay for the server and site upkeep so 10% of that 1% seems very fair.

[luigi1111]

However my favorite bet was the 1.10x multiplier which carries a 90% chance of winning. Maybe I'm just bad at arithmetic (I am), but this bet seems to carry no house edge? I can bet 10 Monero, and if I roll less than 90.00 (or greater than 10.00, players choice), I win eleven back. This also seems to be the most popular bet on the site.

Great review Mr. Pegasus. Very useful and thanks for doing it.

He forgot to mention that FluffyPony is taking 10% of all winnings, and he also did not mention that the highest winner (21800) Moneros is also another Monero develop Othe. So much for developing the coin

It's 10% of site *profits*, which seems reasonable enough to me.

AP, your arithmetic is bad. You have a 9/10th chance of winning, but payout is 11/10ths. A bet at 90% should pay out 10/9ths or 11.1%.

[aminorex]

Othe's big win has terrible optics, but what are you gonna do?  If he wins he wins.  Of course the top winner is most likely to be someone with a lot of XMR to play with, and of course the devs are going to have XMR.  For PR sake I hope devs refrain from playing big there going forward, and in time someone else will claim the top win spot, thus repairing the optics.

[vuduchyld]

For me, I had 10 Monero in my Tippero account that I didn't mind losing, and a long boring day of lectures to sit through. So I transferred them over from Tippero to Monerodice, and poof - no transaction difficulties or excessive confirmations. I checked back a few minutes later and everything was there.

I sincerely hope that someday this story gets as much play as the 10,000 bitcoin pizza!

[vuduchyld]

I've been paralyzed over the last week or more due to the lack of a USD/XMR pair.

Honestly, I don't want to buy XBT at $415 just to use it to buy XMR.  It's stupid, I know, but I've been waiting for a dip to $390 or so to buy XBT, just so I can move it over to Polo to buy XMR. 

What the hell is wrong with me?  Shouldn't I just look at XBT as the medium through which I'd be buying XMR at $1.17?  My $1000 still would buy me 855 XMR.  I guess I have this notion of waiting to buy XBT at 390, then picking up XMR at .0027, thereby paying $1.05 per XMR.  But that may not happen, right?  RIGHT? 

I mean, it doesn't REALLY matter if XBT goes up or down, I think, when considering this. 

Somebody help me overcome my paralysis with some analysis.  Please.  My XMR holdings are also once again above-water, which is a mental change, as anytime I'd added in the last year, I was lowering my average.  Now I'd be raising it. 

[Drhiggins]

So will the new GUI wallet have a feature that generates a payment ID and also will you be able to generate view keys?

[explorer]

I've been paralyzed over the last week or more due to the lack of a USD/XMR pair.

Honestly, I don't want to buy XBT at $415 just to use it to buy XMR.  It's stupid, I know, but I've been waiting for a dip to $390 or so to buy XBT, just so I can move it over to Polo to buy XMR.  

What the hell is wrong with me?  Shouldn't I just look at XBT as the medium through which I'd be buying XMR at $1.17?  My $1000 still would buy me 855 XMR.  I guess I have this notion of waiting to buy XBT at 390, then picking up XMR at .0027, thereby paying $1.05 per XMR.  But that may not happen, right?  RIGHT?  

I mean, it doesn't REALLY matter if XBT goes up or down, I think, when considering this.  

Somebody help me overcome my paralysis with some analysis.  Please.  My XMR holdings are also once again above-water, which is a mental change, as anytime I'd added in the last year, I was lowering my average.  Now I'd be raising it.  

Analysis:

  BUY BUY BUY!!!

You will be increasing, your average buy price, but at a decreasing rate as your hoard increases  

[americanpegasus]

There will hopefully come a day when Coinbase adds Monero to their fiat on/off ramp.  
  
Of course Monero may be worth 100x as much by then, so it might not be worth your time to wait.


I just noticed our topic has passed a million reads.... Wow.

[GingerAle]

So will the new GUI wallet have a feature that generates a payment ID and also will you be able to generate view keys?

You mean a viewkey per transaction, so the concept of selective audibility is possible?

[CryptoAddict]

I've been paralyzed over the last week or more due to the lack of a USD/XMR pair.

Honestly, I don't want to buy XBT at $415 just to use it to buy XMR.  It's stupid, I know, but I've been waiting for a dip to $390 or so to buy XBT, just so I can move it over to Polo to buy XMR.  

What the hell is wrong with me?  Shouldn't I just look at XBT as the medium through which I'd be buying XMR at $1.17?  My $1000 still would buy me 855 XMR.  I guess I have this notion of waiting to buy XBT at 390, then picking up XMR at .0027, thereby paying $1.05 per XMR.  But that may not happen, right?  RIGHT?  

I mean, it doesn't REALLY matter if XBT goes up or down, I think, when considering this.  

Somebody help me overcome my paralysis with some analysis.  Please.  My XMR holdings are also once again above-water, which is a mental change, as anytime I'd added in the last year, I was lowering my average.  Now I'd be raising it.  

I was thinking like you 2 weeks ago when BTC was 430$. I'm glad I didn't wait for cheaper BTC because I would have missed the pump we had on 3/3.

Just look at it as the medium of conversion like you said.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Added: BTW I hold no XMR atm. Fucking shark this morning. !@#$%#%!#@@%#@%

Teach me to try to help suppress while I buy to stop the bots.

...

...

There are many reasons that entities/holders might sell or spend their moneroj.  Maybe, just maybe, becoming a gazillionaire is not the be all and end all goal for some. 
As far as 1000 XMR having an impact, our definitions of impact would appear to differ.  10 000 XMR tends to move a few percent for a few minutes.  In recent market conditions, it would be fairly easy to accumulate 100K coins within a pretty tight window of price and time, and leave no lasting effect.   Of course, it would be more fun to time it just right, so that you shoot a green candle right out the top of the monitor, but it isn't necessary if you don't have the funds to waste on such childish pleasures

There are probably around 1000 bagholders in Monero community (probably the majority is not even writing here but lurking occassionally and staying in sidelines) and I am sure you are right - among that amount of people there are many motives: a portion of them just want to hold Monero for the sake of the honor of owning a little bit of the pie, for some people they need to buy diabers to their babies and then sell Moneros for that (very bad position to be IMO), but also there are some people who have the mindset of a speculator who is expecting Monero to hit the "mainstream" (whatever it means in this context).
When I bought Moneros for the last time I think the price rose like 1-2 % for a short period and I did not buy any significiant amount (maybe 200-300 coins) - I have my core position that stands idle + lending portfolio.

***************************************************

In 2014 and 2015 I used to have a pump'n'dump position which was empty when I was bearish and looking for an entry point and bullish when my bag was full and I was looking for exit point.
However, those days are past. They were good times. It was actually funny to read some angry writings on me when I flip-flopped like a bi-polar in accordance to my position.  
The reason why I shifted my strategy into more long term investor/speculator type of strategy is the fact that the emission is taking hit big time and soon the emission and inflation is something that one do not need to factor into the analysis.
Ladies and gentlemen, 1-2 years from now and we hardly have inflation in Monero. In those days if the demand of Monero starts to increase the price goes literally to sky-high. Given the activity of the community and a great unison in making the difference I do not see too many reasons why this could fail (pessimists will see of course, and I am kinda expecting now some pessimists to reply to this - sure there are ways this could fail obviously).  

[phishead]

MONERO MADNESS

Hey guys, decided it might be fun for some of us who would like to try our luck in picking out our own brackets for March Madness this year!  Since probably everyone on here (including my self) doesn't really keep up with college basketball (in the U.S.), I decided it would be equally as fair to win some Monero and will make it somewhat enjoyable/interesting to watch a game if someone has it on their T.V. at a friends house or out to eat at some bar.

So here's what I'm thinking:

1 entry per user
10 XMR to play  ... ?? up for discussion ??
Figured going through ESPN.com would be easiest to set up our brackets (very simple to sign up a username)

Since ESPN doesn't allow gambling, I figured we will just trust each other to pay up at the end of the bracket.  If you would like to play, sign up on ESPN and message me on either of the ANN or speculation threads or PM me.

Group Name: Monero
Password: blockchain  ... (didn't know what else to put)

Here's a direct link:
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?invitesource=email&groupID=1427554&inviteuser=ezQyRjI1MzNFLTBGQTYtNEY2Qi1BN0Y0LTk1OEMyMDVBNDE2Qn0%3D&ex_cid=invite-email-tcmen&groupp=YmxvY2tjaGFpbg%3D%3D


Let me know if you guys are interested or not! Should be fun if we get a couple players to throw in 10 (or so) XMR.  Maybe the best dudero win  

[Kramerc]

I'm thinking maybe a maximum of 7 more days sideways/down with a low between .0024 and .0020 and then another explosive wave up.

[explorer]

Ladies and gentlemen, 1-2 years from now and we hardly have inflation in Monero. In those days if the demand of Monero starts to increase the price goes literally to sky-high. Given the activity of the community and a great unison in making the difference I do not see too many reasons why this could fail (pessimists will see of course, and I am kinda expecting now some pessimists to reply to this - sure there are ways this could fail obviously).  

Yes, there are obvious failure cases, and likely some not so obvious ones.  OTOH, as you point out, the positive side constantly strengthens as inflation slows, development and community progress, and the global economic ecosystem drives capital to find alternatives for preservation, if not growth.  The greater crypto currency system is so tiny, that only a drop from the global economic bucket will raise all boats.  Maybe swamp some of them, too.  If When it comes, it could be quite violent, as shown by bitcoin in the past.  Look at ETH recently on greed and speculation alone.  Add some fear, and the results could be eye popping, to say the least.  Place your bets, gentlemen.

[bitebits]

I've been paralyzed over the last week or more due to the lack of a USD/XMR pair.

Honestly, I don't want to buy XBT at $415 just to use it to buy XMR.  It's stupid, I know, but I've been waiting for a dip to $390 or so to buy XBT, just so I can move it over to Polo to buy XMR. 

What the hell is wrong with me?  Shouldn't I just look at XBT as the medium through which I'd be buying XMR at $1.17?  My $1000 still would buy me 855 XMR.  I guess I have this notion of waiting to buy XBT at 390, then picking up XMR at .0027, thereby paying $1.05 per XMR.  But that may not happen, right?  RIGHT? 

I mean, it doesn't REALLY matter if XBT goes up or down, I think, when considering this. 

Somebody help me overcome my paralysis with some analysis.  Please.  My XMR holdings are also once again above-water, which is a mental change, as anytime I'd added in the last year, I was lowering my average.  Now I'd be raising it. 

There is a flaw in your reasoning. If the dollar price of XBT goes down, and the dollar price of XMR remains the same, the XBT price of XMR goes up.
So whatever dollar price of XBT, it won't get you more XMR.

[dEBRUYNE]

So will the new GUI wallet have a feature that generates a payment ID and also will you be able to generate view keys?

You mean a viewkey per transaction, so the concept of selective audibility is possible?

Strictly speaking that would be called the tx-key :-P

[tifozi]

MONERO MADNESS

Joined 

[phishead]

MONERO MADNESS

Joined  

Nice   ... but just to let you and everyone else know, the entry fee (10 XMR) is up for discussion and any amount of XMR the "group" feels OK putting in, we'll do.  I guess when we get some more people on here and they feel like raising or lowering the "fee" to play, then we'll have a group vote on what to set the stakes at.

I'd say a fair general ball park to decide from will be 5-25 XMR per user/entry.  When I get home I'll make a thread in the altcoin marketplace and link it on here so we won't be clogging up the price speculation thread.

EDIT: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1400823.new#new

[newb4now]

I'm thinking maybe a maximum of 7 more days sideways/down with a low between .0024 and .0020 and then another explosive wave up.

I think there are a lot of people here who would love to buy more XMR at prices between .0024 and .0020

There is a decent chance we may not go that low ever again.