[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TPTB_need_war]

Don't you think zcash is a factor in this?  Maybe I'm misreading the tea leaves but the ethereum market cap seems to indicate that people are more comfortable funding development via premine / taxed mining rewards than not having any subsidies and slower development.  (XMR and Dash would be another comparison ... and those are two coins where the economic winner is clearly not the technical winner).

Is it because they think Ethereum is getting more development than it really is? Because it is seems reasonably clear from the technological facts in the Ethereum Paradox thread that Ethereum's development is mostly useless. Or am I hallucinating?

I think many people are looking for the next huge adoption coin. So they are ripe for bullshit about smart contracts, etc..

I am going to guess that we have a confluence of:

1. N00bs who really can't understand the technology and only think in simple soundbite buzzword terms.

2. Growing impatience/frustration about reaching the Bitcoin promise of mass adoption.

3. The wet dream of acquiring the next Big Thang in its nascent stage. Disguising a guaranteed P&D and lying to oneself about how that prevents it from ever having the network effects to be the next Big Thing, seems to be the delusion du jour.

Whereas, I think if there is any demand for parking capital in a decentralized, permissionless coin with the best open source development for minimizing risk, I am thinking Monero and Bitcoin are at the top of that list and what Bitcoin gains in terms of liquidity/widespread acceptance it gives up some to Monero in terms of its scalepocalypse. Also RingCT will add damn good privacy.

But since all these user adoption markets (including Bitcoin) are really still tiny, I doubt we have significant non-tinfoil-hat demographic serious money investing in tokens and the serious venture capital was going into ecosystem startups. So it is here that I think Bitcoin is kicking ass on every altcoin that aren't even with an ear shot. Mention crypto currency and the mainstream investors probably roll their eyes and say "nefarious".

When ever I write or think about this, I get frustrated and want to just go back to working on my project because I don't really have anything good to say. Let's see what others have to say and if they push their biases aside and comment rationally.

I know smooth argued that over the long-term methodical open source wins, and I argued that over the short-term Monero's long-term could be disrupted. I don't want to start another flame war. I haven't delivered any usable crypto. Again this stuff frustrates me, so head down is my best response.

[TPTB_need_war]

Edit#2: let us not forget how much work developing crypto is. Monero has a solid open source methodical forward movement...

I was trying to remember where I had seen an interesting blog post by Professor Dave Anderson (who is on the quoted linked page):

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html?view=sidebar
http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/hefuc/proposal.html

[vuduchyld]

Yeah, I think you're absolutely correct with everything you say above.

People tend to get mesmerized by patterns in life.  The only pre-viewed pattern that seems to fit in crypto is Bitcoin, specifically the meteoric rise that happened in 2013.  Personally, I think that was a unique confluence of events that is unlikely to repeat in our lifetimes.  Too many factors have changed.

Kids hopping the ETH train view it as their birthright to have THEIR successful crypto rocketship to fortune.  Facts be damned.

I still think the story has yet to be written about crypto, in general, and whether or not it can scale to mass adoption (and maybe shed that nefarious label...I think it can).  I also think you're absolutely correct that the real money is NOT investing in all these random tokens.

I don't think there will be another Bitcoin circa 2012-2013.  

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think there will be a coin or possibly several coins that will experience bitcoin-like meteoric rise.
Even if XMR is not the one.

You see, if you assume crypto currencies will take over the world in coming years/decades, it cannot be that the largest crypto has marketcap of only in billions of dollars. If you look at the small currencies, their marketcaps are in 10¹² rather than billions (not to mention any major currency).

Therefore if a currency starts pretty much from the scratches, it will give a huge leverage to the wealth.

Therefore, by stating "there will be no more bitcoin 2009-2013" is correct - there will be even bigger rises on the horizon (assuming once again crypto currencies will take over the trade and the current monetary system).

[americanpegasus]

I know smooth argued that over the long-term methodical open source wins, and I argued that over the short-term Monero's long-term could be disrupted. I don't want to start another flame war. I haven't delivered any usable crypto. Again this stuff frustrates me, so head down is my best response.

If you are as legendary of a coder as you say, have you considered working on the Monero code some and offering some commits?  Perhaps you can help bolster and accelerate development of what you admit is the best solution thus far.



On the subject of price rises - I think we could see much larger rises, at least once more in our lifetimes.  We have a miracle combination of a critical mass of individuals all aware of the advantages of cryptocurrency combined with a maturation of the technology.  
  
I can see Monero 'stagnating' in the single and double digits of dollars for many years (even though this would still be a significant rise from current levels)...  but I can also see a meteoric rocket from something like $4 a Monero in 2016 to $40,000 a Monero by 2018.  It will be the next 'tulip mania' and everyone will be screaming to get in.... right before Monero has an awful crash from $40,000 each down to $4,000 each in 2019 and is declared 'dead'.  These kinds of things can happen frightfully fast once a critical mass is reached.

[dEBRUYNE]

http://www.wired.com/2016/04/forget-apple-vs-fbi-whatsapp-just-switched-encryption-billion-people/

Where would we be without an accompanyingwhite paper:

https://www.whatsapp.com/security/WhatsApp-Security-Whitepaper.pdf

[americanpegasus]

http://www.wired.com/2016/04/forget-apple-vs-fbi-whatsapp-just-switched-encryption-billion-people/

Where would we be without an accompanyingwhite paper:

https://www.whatsapp.com/security/WhatsApp-Security-Whitepaper.pdf

This is inspiring - I am filled with pride watching those in power stand up for individual right to privacy.  We are right now deciding on the world we want to see in the future - a global surveillance state where no new ideas can prosper due to fears of censorship and repercussions, or an enlightened society of 'individual kingdoms' where everyone gets to decide their own level of involvement with the greater objectives of the species.

[Nxtblg]

If y'all don't mind me pulling a quasi-hijack from the current subject, allow me to present an item well worth discussing. I actually was torn between posting it here and posting it in a new "General Discussion" thread, because the emerging use case might well be too big for Monero to handle atm. Even though Monero's tech fits this use case hand-in-glove, only Bitcoin has the ready-to-go whale-sized ecosystem and financial infrastructure to exploit this (as of now potential) use case.

First, the news item that got me thinking along the above lines:

Trump proposes funding wall by cutting off remittances

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump would force Mexico to pay for a border wall by threatening to cut off billions of dollars in remittances sent by immigrants living in the U.S., according to a memo released by his campaign Tuesday.

The memo outlines how Trump would try to compel Mexico to pay for a 1,000-mile wall if he becomes president.

In his proposal, Trump threatened to change a rule under the USA Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law, to cut off funds sent to Mexico through money transfers known as remittances. Trump said he would withdraw the threat if Mexico makes "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to finance the wall."

The U.S. is home to about 12 million Mexicans, some living here illegally, according to various research organizations that monitor trends in immigration. They and other migrants use money transfer agents or banks to send money home, often with the objective of supporting their families.

The Mexican central bank reported that money sent home by Mexicans overseas hit nearly $24.8 billion last year, overtaking oil revenues for the first time as a source of foreign income. Cutting off those transfers would therefore represent a significant blow to the Mexican economy. Trump's campaign says that money "provides substantial leverage for the United States to obtain from Mexico the funds necessary to pay for a border wall."

"We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage," the memo reads. "It is time we use it in order to Make America Great Again."

Now, it could be argued that the above item is 100% nothingburger because Trump won't win the Presidency. That's a point, but consider these two counterpoints:

1) The fear engendered by the fact that someone like Donald Trump has come close to the Presidency;
2) The related, and more rational, fear that the Establishment politicians will act to cut off or heavily tax those to-Mexico remittances anyway. If Donald Trump winds up losing, all they have to do is wait a long-enough interval to credibly claim that they're not knuckling under to The Donald and then claim that they've "answered the just demands of the [Trump supporters]".

What's intriguing about this use-case is that it has the potential to be framed as moral to a much wider group of people than hardcore libertarians. Imagine the typical Dem who hears about a Monero-powered para-remittance channel for those immigrants, justified as a way to "fight xenophobia!" He or she would actually be torn. On the one hand, it would clearly be a dark-market operation whose reason for being is to evade a new tax. But on the other hand, it would be explicitly set up to evade a highly regressive tax placed on the backs of mostly poor immigrants. The fact that it'd be a dark money pathway explicitly set up to help a group of disadvantaged and recently-maligned group of people would elicit a lot of squirmy sympathy or even hand-wringy support amongst Dems who can't stand the Trump movement. As a "moral" dark market, it's far more bankable than is Agora or the now-defunct Silk Road.

And, to shift to admittedly callous dollar-sand-cents figuring, a Big Fat Tax on fiat remittances to Mexico would open up a much larger "liquidity cushion" than Western Union's fees do. Even if the net proceeds from a Monero remittance were to knock off 50% in fiat terms, that 50% would match a 10% fee with a 40% tax piled on top of it.

But I think the best way to sell it, to undocumented-immigrant communities who already have lots of good reasons to be stuck-in-the-familiar-rut cautious, is emotional. Present a Monero para-remittance path as a way to whack the Donald Trump piñata with your money.

To be frank, I know next to nothing about those communities and I have no connections to any of them; I know no Spanish. So in this sense, I'm talking through my hat. But feel free to comment on this idea.

[Monerobuyer0]

If y'all don't mind me pulling a quasi-hijack from the current subject, allow me to present an item well worth discussing. I actually was torn between posting it here and posting it in a new "General Discussion" thread, because the emerging use case might well be too big for Monero to handle atm. Even though Monero's tech fits this use case hand-in-glove, only Bitcoin has the ready-to-go whale-sized ecosystem and financial infrastructure to exploit this (as of now potential) use case.

First, the news item that got me thinking along the above lines:

Trump proposes funding wall by cutting off remittances

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump would force Mexico to pay for a border wall by threatening to cut off billions of dollars in remittances sent by immigrants living in the U.S., according to a memo released by his campaign Tuesday.

The memo outlines how Trump would try to compel Mexico to pay for a 1,000-mile wall if he becomes president.

In his proposal, Trump threatened to change a rule under the USA Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law, to cut off funds sent to Mexico through money transfers known as remittances. Trump said he would withdraw the threat if Mexico makes "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to finance the wall."

The U.S. is home to about 12 million Mexicans, some living here illegally, according to various research organizations that monitor trends in immigration. They and other migrants use money transfer agents or banks to send money home, often with the objective of supporting their families.

The Mexican central bank reported that money sent home by Mexicans overseas hit nearly $24.8 billion last year, overtaking oil revenues for the first time as a source of foreign income. Cutting off those transfers would therefore represent a significant blow to the Mexican economy. Trump's campaign says that money "provides substantial leverage for the United States to obtain from Mexico the funds necessary to pay for a border wall."

"We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage," the memo reads. "It is time we use it in order to Make America Great Again."

Now, it could be argued that the above item is 100% nothingburger because Trump won't win the Presidency. That's a point, but consider these two counterpoints:

1) The fear engendered by the fact that someone like Donald Trump has come close to the Presidency;
2) The related, and more rational, fear that the Establishment politicians will act to cut off or heavily tax those to-Mexico remittances anyway. If Donald Trump winds up losing, all they have to do is wait a long-enough interval to credibly claim that they're not knuckling under to The Donald and then claim that they've "answered the just demands of the [Trump supporters]".

What's intriguing about this use-case is that it has the potential to be framed as moral to a much wider group of people than hardcore libertarians. Imagine the typical Dem who hears about a Monero-powered para-remittance channel for those immigrants, justified as a way to "fight xenophobia!" He or she would actually be torn. On the one hand, it would clearly be a dark-market operation whose reason for being is to evade a new tax. But on the other hand, it would be explicitly set up to evade a highly regressive tax placed on the backs of mostly poor immigrants. The fact that it'd be a dark money pathway explicitly set up to help a group of disadvantaged and recently-maligned group of people would elicit a lot of squirmy sympathy or even hand-wringy support amongst Dems who can't stand the Trump movement. As a "moral" dark market, it's far more bankable than is Agora or the now-defunct Silk Road.

And, to shift to admittedly callous dollar-sand-cents figuring, a Big Fat Tax on fiat remittances to Mexico would open up a much larger "liquidity cushion" than Western Union's fees do. Even if the net proceeds from a Monero remittance were to knock off 50% in fiat terms, that 50% would match a 10% fee with a 40% tax piled on top of it.

But I think the best way to sell it, to undocumented-immigrant communities who already have lots of good reasons to be stuck-in-the-familiar-rut cautious, is emotional. Present a Monero para-remittance path as a way to whack the Donald Trump piñata with your money.

To be frank, I know next to nothing about those communities and I have no connections to any of them; I know no Spanish. So in this sense, I'm talking through my hat. But feel free to comment on this idea.

Great post!


By coincidence, the name Monero even sounds like something that you would expect to be focused on remittances to Mexico.  (At least it does to me).

[americanpegasus]

Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

[explorer]

Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

[inca]

Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.

Personally I love them. They are working hard to feed my greed (I am a lender).  

[explorer]

Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.

Bump it up.  Make it hurt    I'd wager that the book would fill up behind you, as it has not on the way down.  Sellers are still sitting at 365 looking down, saying WTF?  No way!

[americanpegasus]

Can't promise it was quite that much, but I can only think of a few reasons to sell so much in one chunk:  
  
- Want to incite a temporary panic and buy back lower.  
- Want to start a new short off with a bang, hoping the market cooperates.  
- Want to legit offload a ton of XMR (unlikely).  
  
I'm betting one of our friends throwing a fit on previous pages has tried a gambit to acquire at a lower price.  Judging by the market absorbing the slap and rising back to the high 350's, and also considering that Monero has the greatest bull case it's ever had, I am more amused than worried.  
  
If someone wants to have a bit of fun, take a small risk here and buy up the order book until 380 and watch the shorts and synthetic-shorts squirm.  
  
(Disclaimer: I am a long Monero permabull, no trading advice implied, this post is for entertainment purposes only, acquire spot XMR and never part with it)

[wpalczynski]

Can't promise it was quite that much, but I can only think of a few reasons to sell so much in one chunk:  
  
- Want to incite a temporary panic and buy back lower.  
- Want to start a new short off with a bang, hoping the market cooperates.  
- Want to legit offload a ton of XMR (unlikely).  
  
I'm betting one of our friends throwing a fit on previous pages has tried a gambit to acquire at a lower price.  Judging by the market absorbing the slap and rising back to the high 350's, and also considering that Monero has the greatest bull case it's ever had, I am more amused than worried.  
  
If someone wants to have a bit of fun, take a small risk here and buy up the order book until 380 and watch the shorts and synthetic-shorts squirm.  
  
(Disclaimer: I am a long Monero permabull, no trading advice implied, this post is for entertainment purposes only, acquire spot XMR and never part with it)

I speculate the tactic didn't work and we go up from here.  If it goes to 380 prepare to hear some major whining and sniffling from our crywhale.  

[aminorex]

I have been out, ill, for the past ~two weeks.  Now I have a backlog of work to do, and taxes upcoming. But I just had to come here to thank that seller:

Sir, thank you, for selling XMR to me at a marvelous discount.  Without people like you I would be significantly less wealthy.

[vuduchyld]

If y'all don't mind me pulling a quasi-hijack from the current subject, allow me to present an item well worth discussing. I actually was torn between posting it here and posting it in a new "General Discussion" thread, because the emerging use case might well be too big for Monero to handle atm. Even though Monero's tech fits this use case hand-in-glove, only Bitcoin has the ready-to-go whale-sized ecosystem and financial infrastructure to exploit this (as of now potential) use case.

First, the news item that got me thinking along the above lines:

Trump proposes funding wall by cutting off remittances

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump would force Mexico to pay for a border wall by threatening to cut off billions of dollars in remittances sent by immigrants living in the U.S., according to a memo released by his campaign Tuesday.

The memo outlines how Trump would try to compel Mexico to pay for a 1,000-mile wall if he becomes president.

In his proposal, Trump threatened to change a rule under the USA Patriot Act, an anti-terrorism law, to cut off funds sent to Mexico through money transfers known as remittances. Trump said he would withdraw the threat if Mexico makes "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to finance the wall."

The U.S. is home to about 12 million Mexicans, some living here illegally, according to various research organizations that monitor trends in immigration. They and other migrants use money transfer agents or banks to send money home, often with the objective of supporting their families.

The Mexican central bank reported that money sent home by Mexicans overseas hit nearly $24.8 billion last year, overtaking oil revenues for the first time as a source of foreign income. Cutting off those transfers would therefore represent a significant blow to the Mexican economy. Trump's campaign says that money "provides substantial leverage for the United States to obtain from Mexico the funds necessary to pay for a border wall."

"We have the moral high ground here, and all the leverage," the memo reads. "It is time we use it in order to Make America Great Again."

Now, it could be argued that the above item is 100% nothingburger because Trump won't win the Presidency. That's a point, but consider these two counterpoints:

1) The fear engendered by the fact that someone like Donald Trump has come close to the Presidency;
2) The related, and more rational, fear that the Establishment politicians will act to cut off or heavily tax those to-Mexico remittances anyway. If Donald Trump winds up losing, all they have to do is wait a long-enough interval to credibly claim that they're not knuckling under to The Donald and then claim that they've "answered the just demands of the [Trump supporters]".

What's intriguing about this use-case is that it has the potential to be framed as moral to a much wider group of people than hardcore libertarians. Imagine the typical Dem who hears about a Monero-powered para-remittance channel for those immigrants, justified as a way to "fight xenophobia!" He or she would actually be torn. On the one hand, it would clearly be a dark-market operation whose reason for being is to evade a new tax. But on the other hand, it would be explicitly set up to evade a highly regressive tax placed on the backs of mostly poor immigrants. The fact that it'd be a dark money pathway explicitly set up to help a group of disadvantaged and recently-maligned group of people would elicit a lot of squirmy sympathy or even hand-wringy support amongst Dems who can't stand the Trump movement. As a "moral" dark market, it's far more bankable than is Agora or the now-defunct Silk Road.

And, to shift to admittedly callous dollar-sand-cents figuring, a Big Fat Tax on fiat remittances to Mexico would open up a much larger "liquidity cushion" than Western Union's fees do. Even if the net proceeds from a Monero remittance were to knock off 50% in fiat terms, that 50% would match a 10% fee with a 40% tax piled on top of it.

But I think the best way to sell it, to undocumented-immigrant communities who already have lots of good reasons to be stuck-in-the-familiar-rut cautious, is emotional. Present a Monero para-remittance path as a way to whack the Donald Trump piñata with your money.

To be frank, I know next to nothing about those communities and I have no connections to any of them; I know no Spanish. So in this sense, I'm talking through my hat. But feel free to comment on this idea.

That's quite a use case!

I just wonder if the average remitter and remittee in this situation would be comfortable with:

USD to BTC
BTC to XMR
XMR wallet to XMR wallet
XMR to BTC
BTC to MXN

Sounds more like a service one could sell, then use the technology inside the wrapper, so to speak, as the special sauce.

So I set up a lemonade stand, or possibly even a website, where people send USD.  I offer to deliver MXN (or USD) to their remittee in Mexico.  Then I do all the proper crypto converting and charge way less than the competition.

[americanpegasus]

Hehe, another 8k sell wall at 362.  Someone is doubling down on their Martingale Monero buyback strategy.  The price action on the sell side today resembles the tantrums of a bratty child, "Why won't you go down!!!?"  
  
Good, let's remove this individual from the Monero-verse entirely, ideally placing them in a net-short position so they can slowly watch that move against them as well.

[wpalczynski]

I have been out, ill, for the past ~two weeks.  Now I have a backlog of work to do, and taxes upcoming. But I just had to come here to thank that seller:

Sir, thank you, for selling XMR to me at a marvelous discount.  Without people like you I would be significantly less wealthy.

Someone took out a short and sold in a desperate bid to push the price down.  He even stated he would do so, this type of manipulation seldom works. Some people got a real gift from our Crywhale.  The crypto hissy fit.