[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Monerobuyer0]

Are the whales that sold ready to get back into XMR yet?  Or are they going to let the community shrink back to what it was in January first?

Wait and see...

It looks to me like they want everyone to quit Monero except the people who have been hodling for 2 years already. 

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[ArticMine]

As far as I can see, Monero has not solved the Tragedy of the Commons in Satoshi's design. I reiterated my rebuttal to ArticMine:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1441959.msg14599446#msg14599446

Clarification:

...

I have responded to this in the Monero Technical Improvement thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1139756.msg14610651#msg14610651

[sandiman]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

[explorer]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

[sandiman]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

[smooth]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

[dEBRUYNE]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

Isn't he implying here that Poloniex only offers margin trading for a few coins (i.e. not all coins listed)?

[explorer]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

Isn't he implying here that Poloniex only offers margin trading for a few coins (i.e. not all coins listed)?

As far as I know, there are only about a dozen coins available for margin trading? 

[Hueristic]

Anyone take my ETH advice?

[noobtrader]

if bitcoin goin to be regulated to death are you really believe monero will be spared  if monero being spared it would be because monero was created by NSA.    

[Hueristic]

if bitcoin goin to be regulated to death are you really believe monero will be spared  if monero being spared it would be because monero was created by NSA.    

Spared? They would have to legislate a code change and thats not possible. No-one would use it. And a Fork would take over. Lol

[TPTB_need_war]

Anonymint, I don't know how you can fall into the beginner trap of saying the halving is "priced in".  For something to be priced in, it would imply there is some form of equilibrium at hand, meaning the price goes up, minining power doesn't increase with it, halving occurs, then mining power stays the same.  That isn't what happened at all though.  The price went up and more mining power joined the network, raising the price floor months ago and it has been shown to be pretty stable at the higher price.  Now when the halving occurs, the price is either required to increase a lot, or lots of miners will have to drop out.  There is no form of equilibrium at hand.  Tidal waves of cause and effect have to occur.

We also know that ASICs require lots of R&D investment and capital.  Since people have already invested millions of dollars in mining farms, there is no way in hell they are going to turn off their 16nm, state of the art miners.  Current process node miners simply do not turn them off ever.  They always mine at a loss or buy coins off the wall to dollar cost average before doing that.  Even if you did think the Bitcoin price was unsustainable (it's not, market cap is still small), it's inevitable the price would spike higher before any unsustainable reality could set in.

The act of mining is also a decentralized exchange while Coinbase is a centralized exchange.  Supply is being cut in half on the DEX while demand remains the same because miners are simply not going to be turned off.  Centralized exchanges are forced to follow the price action.

1. Marginal miners continuing to mine has no positive effect on the price. If hashrate doesn't halve, they have to sell proportionally (to the block reward) more Bitcoin to pay expenses. So while the main argument for the price increasing (other than expectations of investors), is the halving of the annual supply of coins will be available for selling from mining, some of that could be offset by increased selling as more marginal miners become cash flow negative. So the initial effect could be an increase in selling while marginal miners try to stay afloat hoping price will rise. This is entire consistent with the V crash followed by a slingshot rocket up, which is what I stated is possible.

2. Marginal miners won't shut off their mining once Bitcoin becomes unprofitable for them, instead they will shift their ASICs to Bitcoin clones. Another Litecoin (formerly the GPU switch) is out there right now, waiting to be beneficially. Is it Vcash? What Bitcoin clones are out there?

3. I don't think the DEX demand via mining is entirely price inelastic. At some price, it is more profitable to mine an altcoin, then trade it for Bitcoins (after pumping the price of the altcoin by mining out the float and doing manipulation).

The game theory is much more sophisticated than your simplistic one.

There was a -40% price crash of Bitcoin about 3 months before the last halving, so that would correspond to roughly this May:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg1460zczsg2012-04-23zeg2013-01-22ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Short_Term

Also the price rise in 2013 followed not only the halving but also the first ASIC miners:

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/40944/when-did-the-asic-mining-era-begin

So another possible theory is the ASIC miners had such lower costs, that more and more Bitcoin was being held and not sold to pay expenses. And thus leading to the 2013 bubbles.

Whereas, the opposite economics this halving, in that more miners will have their costs increase unless the price doubles, thus more Bitcoin proportionally being dumped on the market until those marginal miners exit and go mine an altcoin.

[dEBRUYNE]

if bitcoin goin to be regulated to death are you really believe monero will be spared  if monero being spared it would be because monero was created by NSA.    

It's way easier to introduce such a scheme into Bitcoin than Monero, simply because you can differentiate between certain coins/transactions in Bitcoin (i.e. taint). Sure they could ban Monero as a whole, but that wouldn't break the fungibility of the coin. Furthermore, since Monero is (i) decentralized and (ii) fairly launched the chances are pretty negligible.

[sandiman]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on the lending market from now on.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on the lending market from now on.

I am using lending market to analyze the overall atmosphere. When rates  are low it means the shorter community thinks the price is low and odds for further decline are  limited.

[dreamspark]

Hope everyone is well. Been a long break from crypto for me. Still holding my main bag and its good to see some nice price rises in both XMR and BTC

[lolikop]

this dump is for all people who loan their coins at 0.01% having fun yet with ur loaning profits lol

[spatula]

this dump is for all people who loan their coins at 0.01% having fun yet with ur loaning profits lol

It doesn't even look like a margin short position. There are still a lot of loan offers below 0.01%, and even more right around that (already really crazy) low area. This looks like regular unloading to me. Hold on tight folks.

[DaveyJones]

BTC rising... monero is not alone so id say just relax and wait till the tides are back to normal after halvening and the speculation it brings to the alt scene too

[TPTB_need_war]

Probably nobody here wants to read this viewpoint:

So, what will happen?

Back in 2013 we had Mt.Gox running on fractional/damaged reserve, so there had been more BTC available in trades than BTC total in existance and it did not matter because there was money inflow from the outsides. This year is more solid regarding those issues, just completely isolated market.

The 850,000 Bitcoins stolen (200,000 recovered) from Mt. Gox were roughly 8% of the coin supply. What was likely happening is this supply was employed to manipulate the float on Mt. Gox (buying from yourselves, etc) in order to drive a massive bubble..since 70% of all Bitcoin traded through Mt.Gox.

Given ASICs had come online, miners didn't need to sell as many coins to pay electricity.

The mass media was pumping Bitcoin up every day.

We probably don't have the level of upward price manipulation now. Sorry.

Edit: altcoins became the way to have the float tied up in one or two exchanges (e.g. Ethereum) so the insiders could manipulate the price. Crypto-currency is all about the scams.

Nobody invests into BTC or mining equipment anymore. When did you bought ASICs valued 10.000 USD last time? Aren't those USD you now use to buy BTC just been taken from former BTC sales?

Bitcoin cannot do without Alts, both built up a complete whole economy. Remember people are not buying/selling anything using BTC, they just gamble on Alts. Basically I do agree on BTC up causing Alts going down and vice verse. Enclosed system like two water tanks with a flexible tube connecting them.

This is true. Most people don't want to trade their BTC for a non-CC asset, because this their gambling money. They can't buy mining equipment with BTC to increase their holdings of crypto-currency. This is why ICOs have become more popular than mined distribution, with the ASIC resistant Monero as an exception.

ASICs killed the mining ecosystem. This has been r0ach's point, that if the coins don't circulate, then the ecosystem dies. Bitcoin is dying. Only the altcoin circulation kept Bitcoin alive.

Sorry I see Bitcoin as very vulnerable. No new money is coming in. A global contagion can force some large whales to liquidate to cover their ass in other illiquid loans and investments.

Prepare for the crash.