[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

Oh wow, massive XMR short opened just now.  XMR lending dropped by 30k - 40k at least, maybe more.

Nice spot.

Alts dumped across the board, it looks like.

Tempted to buy 20-30k. Hate shorters.

Don't hate shorters. Even if the shorter is right and the price drops he will need to buy his position back at some point, that creates support at low levels and prevents the price from falling too far. If the shorter is wrong he will be forced to buy and that can result in breaking through resistance levels and fuel a rally. Any trade activity is good as it creates more liquidity. High liquidity means it will be easier to enter or exit large position. That is good for everyone and encourages larger investments. Not to mention people eager to buy getting their bids fulfilled.

[1714862900]

1714862900

[americanpegasus]

I've seen this pattern play out enough that it is getting quite old.  
  
Whale sets up some big ask walls, and buyers chomp through them because fuckthisguy-amirite.  Then the whale dumps as much as possible and sets up a few final sell walls trying to squeeze the price down and rebuy what he sold at a lower price point.  
  
He either profits from the fear he generates or loses when the market rallies despite his manipulation.

[vuduchyld]

Well, I'm just a simple guy.

I look at the Polo markets today...bloody red everywhere.

Seemed like a perfect time to get some orders filled.  Added about 600 to my stash.  I was happy to get a couple hundy at .003518.  Good day to buy, I'd say.  Tomorrow is another day. 

[vuduchyld]

Well, I'm just a simple guy.

I look at the Polo markets today...bloody red everywhere.

Seemed like a perfect time to get some orders filled.  Added about 600 to my stash.  I was happy to get a couple hundy at .003518.  Good day to buy, I'd say.  Tomorrow is another day. 

Whoops.  Make that about 750 added.  Another order filled.  I'll take it.

[dEBRUYNE]

Thanks to TheKoziTwo, this is working properly again:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Unfortunately we cannot see what happened around the 30-40k dump.

[vuduchyld]

Well, I'm just a simple guy.

I look at the Polo markets today...bloody red everywhere.

Seemed like a perfect time to get some orders filled.  Added about 600 to my stash.  I was happy to get a couple hundy at .003518.  Good day to buy, I'd say.  Tomorrow is another day. 

Whoops.  Make that about 750 added.  Another order filled.  I'll take it.

Whoops again.  Make that about 1100.  Better get some more BTC to that wallet!

[americanpegasus]

Brutal artificial sell off today.  My only guess is that someone wants to squeeze the living shit out of longs before the next major movement north.  We've seen this before a couple of times.  
  
No free rides on the Monero train!  I remain bullish, as always.  If you hold XMR, keep holding it - there has never been a stronger bull case for it.  Don't let the big guys bully around the stack - if you were considering a large long position now is definitely the time get it - it makes me sick watching whales take money from the emotional small fish.

[Monerobuyer0]

Brutal artificial sell off today.  My only guess is that someone wants to squeeze the living shit out of longs before the next major movement north.  We've seen this before a couple of times.  
  

This is what happens when people here troll someone who has bought Monero (Crowdwhale), and make him want to leave.  He sells and we all have to sit here looking at our -7% Monero. 

I am very sad that that happened.

[americanpegasus]

This is what happens when people here troll someone who has bought Monero (Crowdwhale), and make him want to leave.  He sells and we all have to sit here looking at our -7% Monero.  

I am very sad that that happened.

No one trolled him.  He came in flinging around a series of temper tantrums because the price wouldn't move the way he wanted, demanded 'the boogeywhales' cater to him or he would leave and go back to Forex, and no one obliged his ego.  Monero ill needs holders like that.  If that was him dumping his stash I would say we are better off without those XMR being in his hands.  Monero is the most sophisticated financial asset in the world - if you dump it because the other holders don't pander to your whims, then I'm not sure you deserve what comes next anyway.

[explorer]

Brutal artificial sell off today.  My only guess is that someone wants to squeeze the living shit out of longs before the next major movement north.  We've seen this before a couple of times.  
  

This is what happens when people here troll someone who has bought Monero (Crowdwhale), and make him want to leave.  He sells and we all have to sit here looking at our -7% Monero.  

I am very sad that that happened.

Better to have periodical shakeouts on the way up, allowing for a more stable overall rise.  Rapid exponential growth with no major retrace along the way typically results in one big drop back to the bottom.  

edit:

look at that buy wall now  (flashed and gone, 400BTC @ 340)  enough to make any further shorting a bit sketchy, anyway.

[lolikop]

This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

[Monerobuyer0]

This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

Or maybe Monero 200k is incoming, and this is just like the top from last year at 430.  Chart looks very similar, though not identical.  No one here wants to admit this possibility.  I bet everyone was bullish at that last peak too, just like this.

[instacalm]

I remember Monero topics all over this place a couple months ago, seems like that hype has faded. Silently progressing with development?

[Monerobuyer0]

I remember Monero topics all over this place a couple months ago, seems like that hype has faded. Silently progressing with development?

Maybe the smart people dumped near 400 already, and now they are waiting for us all to give up again and buy back.

[explorer]

This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

So it would seem, looking just at XMR.  Looking at Poloniex, it is a sea of red. 2 months of green has been nice, but is some of that new money pulling out again?  Is ETH dump part of it, or cause of it?

   It's been over 3 hours since the initial 30K short.  Impatiently awaiting the fast recovery 

[needmoney90]

Thanks to TheKoziTwo, this is working properly again:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Unfortunately we cannot see what happened around the 30-40k dump.

2016-04-05 21:36:02   218665.51021900   0.00000000   0.7098% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:35:01   199385.18516500   0.00000000   0.2963% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:34:01   199437.19460200   0.00000000   0.2963% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:33:02   198659.08590300   0.00000000   0.7794% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:32:01   198659.08590300   0.00000000   0.7794% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:31:01   179417.86767100   0.00000000   0.3273% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:30:02   197102.22078100   0.00000000   0.7854% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:29:01   197102.10396900   0.00000000   0.7854% / 0%
2016-04-05 21:28:01   178199.05722600   0.00000000   0.3293% / 0%

That's some pretty intense whipsaw in the weighted average..

[dEBRUYNE]

I don't get the need for panic here, as long as the horizontal support (320-330k) holds the trend is doing just fine. Trendlines break all the time and that doesn't necessarily result in a reversion of the trend. Subsequently, a new trendline gets found. Furthermore, they are kind of subjective, whereas horizontal supports are much more clear and thus objective in my opinion.

Also, if it really were people shorting they have to buy back at some point, which increases liquidity.

[americanpegasus]

This is just an attempt to buy lower most of the selling today is fake to create a panic

If no panic dumps occur within 3 hours expect a fast recovery

Or maybe Monero 200k is incoming, and this is just like the top from last year at 430.  Chart looks very similar, though not identical.  No one here wants to admit this possibility.  I bet everyone was bullish at that last peak too, just like this.

Oh no!  Fear, uncertainty, doubt!    
  
Look at the volume compared to last year and consider the environment- Monero is nearly ready for the big leagues now, unlike then.  The core engine is much sleeker and there will soon^tm be a GUI.  Things like Ring CT and multisig are going to make it even better.  
  
Meanwhile the subreddit has more than twice the number of subscribers from that time period and we are getting more exposure all the time.  The emission is way lower as well, and Poloniex (main exchange, and featuring an XMR market) isn't some young startup anymore - they are one of the standards for a crypto exchange.  
  
Additionally I've heard XMR chatter spreading around the Internet and approaching critical mass - the secret is out and we are gradually approaching a mainstream awareness of Monero.  
  
Like Mark Baum, I will be the one to stand up and say: "Zero.  There is a zero chance we return to the levels of last year."

[needmoney90]

Additionally I've heard XMR chatter spreading around the Internet and approaching critical mass - the secret is out and we are gradually approaching a mainstream awareness of Monero.  

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11424592

ctrl+f Monero

For anyone who hasn't heard of HackerNews, they're pretty big in the programming community, and a bastion of rational discussion. I personally check the front page (and the comments section, that's the best part) multiple times a day, and I know many other people in my profession do as well.

[Monerobuyer0]

Additionally I've heard XMR chatter spreading around the Internet and approaching critical mass - the secret is out and we are gradually approaching a mainstream awareness of Monero.  

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11424592

ctrl+f Monero

Wow nice, Shen Noether even posted in that thread.