[XMR] Monero Speculation

[toknormal]

If we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story...They've ceded that point

I don't often post in here. But for the record, that point is well and truly not ceded as far as this investor is concerned.

I have held Monero since almost day 1 of its existence and Dash from a bit before. There's never been any doubt in my mind about which was more "fungible" because for me, "fungibility" is meaningless unless you're talking about a transparent blockchain with visible balances independently of whether anyone happens to hold a private key or not.

Blockchain transparency (not obscurity) is what sustains authenticity & confidence and confidence is what sustains value if the asset is otherwise unbacked. I appreciate that posters in this thread prefer their blockchains encrypted. I've no problem with that since there are markets to cater for everyone's preference. Just don't pretend you've won some kind of 'battle' when you're not even on the same battlefield.

[1715481755]

1715481755

[kurious]

If we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story...They've ceded that point

I don't often post in here. But for the record, that point is well and truly not ceded as far as this investor is concerned.

I have held Monero since almost day 1 of its existence and Dash from a bit before. There's never been any doubt in my mind about which was more "fungible" because for me, "fungibility" is meaningless unless you're talking about a transparent blockchain with visible balances independently of whether anyone happens to hold a private key or not.

Blockchain transparency (not obscurity) is what sustains authenticity & confidence and confidence is what sustains value if the asset is otherwise unbacked. I appreciate that posters in this thread prefer their blockchains encrypted. I've no problem with that since there are markets to cater for everyone's preference. Just don't pretend you've won some kind of 'battle' when you're not even on the same battlefield.

Are you saying you think Dash is better than Monero - at least in this respect?

[Dotto]

A big move is in the kitchen

[ArticMine]

For all of you lending out thousands of Monero especially at really low rates... just think about it for a moment. Right now we have about 190,000 XMR available to short and a good share of them are available at VERY low rates. While Dash on the other hand has only about 17,000 and yes I know some are currently shorting Dash but, even when their price was much lower the numbers were still about 8 or 9 to 1.  That makes it extremely easy for anyone with some btc to short Monero at a very low cost and in big numbers and drive that price down.  

The MasterNode scheme does one thing effectively and that is remove huge numbers of coins from the market for trading AND for lending, thus raising the cost to short and making it easier to keep a pump going to these really extreme levels.

Please re-examine your lending habits, if we all quit squabbling over the scraps maybe Monero would make some headway as far as price goes.

And yes that include you TC!

There is more to this, but is is fair to say that low XMR interest rates may be in part at least fuelling the Dash bubble. I am going to start with the changes in the Dash masternode network. http://178.254.23.111/~pub/Dash/Dash_Info.html What is very significant is the drop in the number of masternodes ~500 masternodes or 500,000 Dash just before the start of the Dash price rise. Now quizzie made the argument that these masternodes were kicked off the Dash network due to a software upgrade. That was fair enough at the time but the reality is that these masternodes have for the most part not returned to the Dash masternode network. So I am forced to look again at my original argument leveraged longs.

At the time I'm posting this Dash is @ 45.35$. Anybody know if this is organic or if this is just a bubble?

Dash has been in an uptrend for a couple of months now, resulting in a dramatic price break-out. Time will tell if this is indeed a bubble that could burst at any time
or if it is due to an organic rise.

Personally though i think Dash deserves that third rank on coinmarketcap as it kept developing its cryptocurrency from the moment it was launched till this very day.
Dash Evolution is also progressing nicely with an Alpha release scheduled for mid summer 2017. This will bring Dash massive scalability and a distinct focus
on the ease of usability.

Link : https://www.dash.org/evolution/

Maybe some large whales are taking positions in Dash right now because of that, or maybe there is a stronger tendency to diversify into promising altcoins ?
Who knows....
    

    

... or a large leveraged Dash long position. Ever wondered why 500 Dash masternodes were removed from the Dash masternode network on February 26, 2017 just before the breakout? http://178.254.23.111/~pub/Dash/Dash_Info.html My interest in this by the way is the coin that is a likely candidate for the corresponding short position.  

Edit 1: Just a theory. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg18068376#msg18068376

Edit 2: By the way Dash does deserve congratulations on Bronze

Those 500 Dash masternodes were actually kicked from the netwerk as a spork got activated that day that ruled that only 0.12.1 masternodes were allowed on the netwerk. Its part of Dash controlled hard fork into update 0.12.1

First the spork activation can make a good cover for someone planning such a leveraged long with minimal impact on the market.  One still has to ask the question where did the 500,000 Dash go. The price moved up sharply so it was not dumped, furthermore there is very little Dash available for lending. This leaves collateral for a leveraged longs as a reasonable plausible alternative. Such positions have up to now being very profitable.

So how does one set up a Dash leveraged  long position on Poloniex for example?. One deposits Dash into Poloniex and then borrows another coin to sell short for more Dash. It is here where Monero comes in. The combination of very low Monero interest rates, a very large availability of Monero for lending, a highly liquid Monero market, together with a bearish bias until the beginning of March made Monero a very attractive candidate for the short side of the long Dash position. Furthermore as long a Dash rises at a faster rate than Monero the Dash / Monero spread is fine and in fact the rising Monero price may serve to further fuel the Dash bubble. The key market to watch here is DASH/XMR https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash Dash is currently trading for ~5 XMR this is below the ~7.8 XMR in August of 2016 for example. So the Dash bubble may still have some legs.  The net result of all of this is that the Dash bubble may be fuelled in part by low Monero interest rates, and the development of sizable Long Dash / Short Monero positions.

Like any bubble the current Dash bubble will eventually crash and the pigs will go to the slaughterhouse. The impact on the broader Monero markets would be: A rising  default risk of Monero loans collateralized by Dash and a significant overall Monero short squeeze. Should this occur those who have taken delivery of their XMR  should be in the strongest position to profit from the resulting blood on the streets.

[toknormal]

Are you saying you think Dash is better than Monero - at least in this respect?

No. I'm saying you can't compare their approaches to 'privacy'. Each is appropriate to its respective blockchain's design priority and works in that respect. Dash's was to retain bitcoin compatability - in particular with respect to staying a transparent chain.

Monero's was to provide a fully encrypted transacting environment where the significant transaction attributes are only accessible to the participating parties. If Dash adopted a Cryptonote approach, it would loose a central plank of its value basis. If Monero adopted Dash's approach it would suffer similarly. So there's no battle to be won there - each has the type of privacy that's consistent with its respective monetary model.

[Hueristic]

...

Like any bubble the current Dash bubble will eventually crash and the pigs will go to the slaughterhouse. The impact on the broader Monero markets would be: A rising  default risk of Monero loans collateralized by Dash and a significant overall Monero short squeeze. Should this occur those who have taken delivery of their XMR  should be in the strongest position to profit from the resulting blood on the streets.

I agreed with you then and I agree with you now, those masternode coins are fueling this in concert with large Dash bagholders. This is a coordinated movement. But they could not keep XMR price suppressed forever so I expect as XMR rises dash should start the inverse and then boom the big dump is going to be epic.

What I am not sure of is if the dumpers will hold in BTC or rebuy lower (probally) or move into other markets. I think that is the million dollar question.


Anyway it's really nice to see the positive movement going on!

[Hueristic]

Oh, by the way guys... I think I know how to stop Dash from rising any more  

Just now, I just bought ONE DASH COIN using about $100 worth of bitcoin that I was lucky enough to WIN today, totally unexpected fluke.

Easy Come, Easy Go... right?  Buying stupid Dash at what may be the TOP of this epic bubble run is definitely a "gamble" more extreme than any casino odds LOL

And... EVERY... FREAKING... TIME... when I "capitulate" and BUY some coin as it's been running HOT...?  ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS it immediately CRASHES

So, LOL... y'all can thank me later  

LOL, good one.

A little insider knowledge on polo right now could make a person quit a stack of cash!

< 200k for sale is nice to see as well.

[cAPSLOCK]

Are you saying you think Dash is better than Monero - at least in this respect?

No. I'm saying you can't compare their approaches to 'privacy'. Each is appropriate to its respective blockchain's design priority and works in that respect. Dash's was to retain bitcoin compatability - in particular with respect to staying a transparent chain.

Monero's was to provide a fully encrypted transacting environment where the significant transaction attributes are only accessible to the participating parties. If Dash adopted a Cryptonote approach, it would loose a central plank of its value basis. If Monero adopted Dash's approach it would suffer similarly. So there's no battle to be won there - each has the type of privacy that's consistent with its respective monetary model.

I believe that aspect of Dash's privacy model is flawed.  It provides a significant handle for for data mining the block chain.  That combined with a semi-centralized mixing model makes Dash's "privacy" broken from the get go.

[explorer]

Okay guys... I guess I need to weigh-in here on the whole Dash situation "big picture" given that the damn shitcoin seems to be about to break $100.

Un-frikkn'-believeable but... there it is.

So: am I butt-hurt?  Yep.  Freely admit it.  Fact is that I did HODL 50 Dash from over a year ago until just recently (like last October or November I think) when I decided to dump it and 'consolidate' my crypto portfolio around only "what really mattered".

So, yep I've missed out of this pump even though I should not have, given that I WAS holding *some* Dash just as a "hedge" until very recently and stupidly I sold it off JUST BEFORE this run started.

Back in October-ish the 50 Dash I had was worth about 1 bitcoin and now, today, it'd be at 4 bitcoins.

So that's two doublings 1-to-2-to-4 that I missed out on.  Opportunity cost of 3 BTC.  That would've made it my third-best crypto investment of all time after Monero and MaidSafe overall returns and it would've beaten my overall bitcoin performance (one doubling) by twice.

So, yeah, it sucks and I feel stupid but can't win 'em all I guess... right?  LOL.  Still ButtHurt.

Anyhoo....

The $64,000 Big Question NOW is... what to do about this situation?  Let's look at "reality" as best we can.

Dash is no competition to Monero.  We know that. 

The Monero/Dash fighting is really over IF we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story.

But taking a step backwards it looks to me like Dash isn't really competing on that point any more.  They've ceded that point (mostly) and nowadays they are trying to SELL their shit premine scam coin as being JUST a little BETTER than BITCOIN.  It has faster and cheaper transactions, apparently, even IF it does not have better fungibility or anonymity (which is simply also true for bitcoin).

I thought that this recent DashPump would never get to $100 but NOW here it is and it's come RIGHT ON THE HEELS of the latest, biggest, noisiest and messiest battle between BlockstreamCore and Bitcoin Unlimited (yesterday this node bug crashing shitstorm mess).

SO is it really POSSIBLE that this latest Bitcoin Disaster has driven more real money/value into... aaaaah... can't bear to say it... DASH REAL USE??

Or is ALL this really STILL just the most Epic Mother Of All-Time PUMPS by the Dashhole Insiders, trying to desperately make a Hail-Mary Pass and *buy* some expensive *legitimacy* for their scam coin at the last minute *before* the actual real-reality takes over again and consigns it to the dustbin of history?  Dashholes may actually KNOW that most likely coinbase is going to adopt Monero soon, for example, and when WE hit $50-$100+ on that fact (soon^TM) it may be the end of the road for them.

I'm willing to listen IF any Dashers around here wanna try and convince me using real FACTS/DATA that I've been wrong that it's a scam coin and pump-dump here lately, just on the theory that *maybe* Dash only needs to be a little better in some small way than BITCOIN (not Monero) to justify this crazy price rise.

Really trying hard here NOT to be "emotional" about this kind of investment decision but under the circumstances it's pretty hard LOL

https://twitter.com/dangermouse117

some interesting tweets on the subject, worth looking at IMO.

[ArticMine]

...

I agreed with you then and I agree with you now, those masternode coins are fueling this in concert with large Dash bagholders. This is a coordinated movement. But they could not keep XMR price suppressed forever so I expect as XMR rises dash should start the inverse and then boom the big dump is going to be epic.

What I am not sure of is if the dumpers will hold in BTC or rebuy lower (probally) or move into other markets. I think that is the million dollar question.


Anyway it's really nice to see the positive movement going on!

If the dumpers are short XMR they have to buy XMR to cover their positions. This is the essence of a short squeeze.

[explorer]

...

I agreed with you then and I agree with you now, those masternode coins are fueling this in concert with large Dash bagholders. This is a coordinated movement. But they could not keep XMR price suppressed forever so I expect as XMR rises dash should start the inverse and then boom the big dump is going to be epic.

What I am not sure of is if the dumpers will hold in BTC or rebuy lower (probally) or move into other markets. I think that is the million dollar question.


Anyway it's really nice to see the positive movement going on!

If the dumpers are short XMR they have to buy XMR to cover their positions. This is the essence of a short squeeze.

XMR loan pool is at a recent high with very low rates, I doubt there is a large amount out right now.

[astmandu]

Though I've thought the DASH pump should have ended long ago, the ETH and XMR bull market seems to have begun and hopefully that will pull some volume in.  I expect the DASH cabal to keep holding the price up, but I also expect many of the retail traders to take profit and go into ETH and XMR.  Other alts will still vie for position but time is getting limited...only the strong will survive the next couple years. 

[KeyJockey]

Thanks to all above for replies: Just to further try and get my head around all this, here's a further bit of theory for us all to maybe chew on...

Seems possible to me that maybe the purpose of this Epic Pump (if indeed it's what it is? And not something organic?) is intended to "buy legitimacy" for the Dash coin project AT EVEN A VERY EXPENSIVE MARKET MANIPULATION PRICE just because a go-for-broke Hail Mary Pass *will* be necessary if it's going to survive?

In other words:

1. The Master Dashers use up all their firepower ammo in this epic mother of all pumps JUST TO GET their coin UP in market cap rating to #3
2. The TIMING of this just when Bitcoin is going thru the worst point of its scaling political problems is "interesting" to say the least
3. Achieving #3 Market Cap Position, Dash gains very valuable media attention and Internet "chatter" - "success breeds success!" in theory
4. This apparent "victory" of DASH as "King of Alts" as "Bitcoin 2.0" then leads to (they hope?) actual MERCHANT ADOPTION...
5. Merchant adoption provides users someplace to actually spend their Dash at faster and cheaper transactions than FAILING BITCOIN can do!!
6. Virtuous-Cycle of #3 to #4 to #5 continues a while (they hope?)
7. Finally... number #6 goes on long enough to take on its own life BEFORE THE PUMPERS run out of FUEL and the whole efforts crashes and burns...?

What do you guys think...? 

Is something like this really going on here, to maybe try and make Dash "real" ??
-OR-
Is it really just a Poloniex-based, simple P&D operation as seen before, but just THIS TIME on a larger scale than's ever been attempted previously??

[N-rG]

First the spork activation can make a good cover for someone planning such a leveraged long with minimal impact on the market.  One still has to ask the question where did the 500,000 Dash go. The price moved up sharply so it was not dumped, furthermore there is very little Dash available for lending. This leaves collateral for a leveraged longs as a reasonable plausible alternative. Such positions have up to now being very profitable.

So how does one set up a Dash leveraged  long position on Poloniex for example?. One deposits Dash into Poloniex and then borrows another coin to sell short for more Dash. It is here where Monero comes in. The combination of very low Monero interest rates, a very large availability of Monero for lending, a highly liquid Monero market, together with a bearish bias until the beginning of March made Monero a very attractive candidate for the short side of the long Dash position. Furthermore as long a Dash rises at a faster rate than Monero the Dash / Monero spread is fine and in fact the rising Monero price may serve to further fuel the Dash bubble. The key market to watch here is DASH/XMR https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash Dash is currently trading for ~5 XMR this is below the ~7.8 XMR in August of 2016 for example. So the Dash bubble may still have some legs.  The net result of all of this is that the Dash bubble may be fuelled in part by low Monero interest rates, and the development of sizable Long Dash / Short Monero positions.

Like any bubble the current Dash bubble will eventually crash and the pigs will go to the slaughterhouse. The impact on the broader Monero markets would be: A rising  default risk of Monero loans collateralized by Dash and a significant overall Monero short squeeze. Should this occur those who have taken delivery of their XMR  should be in the strongest position to profit from the resulting blood on the streets.

Chapeau

[megadeth]

Conspiracy theory: Polo got pwned and Dash is being used to cash out the proceeds.   

[Febo]

It is good to see under 200k XMR on sell side. and over 2k BTC on a buy side without any obvious fake walls. This weekend will for sure look extra bright for Monero.

[CTTE]

...

I agreed with you then and I agree with you now, those masternode coins are fueling this in concert with large Dash bagholders. This is a coordinated movement. But they could not keep XMR price suppressed forever so I expect as XMR rises dash should start the inverse and then boom the big dump is going to be epic.

What I am not sure of is if the dumpers will hold in BTC or rebuy lower (probally) or move into other markets. I think that is the million dollar question.


Anyway it's really nice to see the positive movement going on!

If the dumpers are short XMR they have to buy XMR to cover their positions. This is the essence of a short squeeze.

Another problem is that Polo has stopped adding to their list of marginable coins.  So, we have only a few that are worth bothering with, for example not many people are actively trading Clam or Stellar due to their low price and volume, yet it remains on the list. While other new coins are not added... I think it would spread some of this shorting pressure out a bit if there were another half dozen coins with decent liquidity that people could margin trade besides Monero.

Of course in this case, the Dashstards are also gunning for Monero so, it maybe wouldn't have made a world of difference but, I think in normal times it would be a benefit.

[explorer]

I'm such an idiot. I bought into this suckers rally. Is it going back to $12 or is this part of a bigger movement?

Wish there was more price speculation and less discussion of 0s/2 warp

Buy a little.  If it goes up, buy a little more.  If it goes down, buy a little more.  If it goes down a lot, buy a lot 

Feeling better? 

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Aaaand we broke $20, and new BTC local high of 0.0164.

[explorer]

As for the Monero price, right now we're currently continuing the cool drive back up to the previous local 0.0169 high. A little turbulence can be expected as we attempt to break through resistance, but you'd be wise to hang tight. Once we've broken through 0.0169, it will be an easy slingshot up to the main ATH, particularly in combination of an uncertain bitcoin and a potential Dash evacuation.

So, basically fasten your seatbelts, grab yourself a Piña colada, stick on some Burt Bacharach, and enjoy the ride.

Buckle up.