[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bitwolf]

Soon I doubt that there will be a single digital coin that doesn't promote at least some minimal level of privacy and anonymity. So it's not a matter of "if", but "when" exchanges and also governments will admit that it is completely normal that absolutely everything on the internet - pics, videos, audio, files and literally all kind of data - will be encrypted to a level of an impossible brute force decryption. And this is completely normal to include the digital currencies too. If you don't want to show what you have used the currency for - than you have the option to hide the transaction. Monero is the best tool for this. Hiding transactions from eyes different from yours doesn't mean that you are trying to throw out the government. Maybe you bought a car that you like and you don't want anyone to know the price (like your wife... just an example).

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[infofront]

Given the fact that coinbase is trying so hard to appease regulators and bureaucrats, I find it very hard to believe they'll ever accept Monero.

You think coinbase LIKES IT that they have to appease regulators and bureaucrats?  Or they're doing it because they unfortunately HAVE to do it to stay in business?

All that shit they do has a definite COST to them, i.e. it's expensive to gain a new customer: do you think they are happy when they *have to* deliberately throw away a customer's account for no real reason?

IMHO seems to me that coinbase may internally just LOVE Monero now, precisely because it's gonna give them a natural way to be easily able to STOP DOING all that shit (at least for XMR transactions, if not Bitcoin/Ether going forward).

With Monero, they can say, "Oh, yeah sure guys, we would just love to keep tracking all this stuff for y'all but <snap> seems like it just ain't possible with this-here new crypto and its architecture.  Sorry 'bout that.  So, tell ya what: we'll track it as far as we can for ya, just single deposit source and withdraw address, I guess, with the customer viewkey here that we'll require them to give us, but anything after that?  Sorry, you guys gonna be on your own for anything further about any of our customers that you need to investigate.  Guess y'all just gotta go back to old fashioned normal police work again and not make us do all your dirty work for ya any more..."

 

I'm sure they were aware, from the beginning, of the difficulties in running a cryptocurrency exchange in the USA.

[bobabouey2]

Given the fact that coinbase is trying so hard to appease regulators and bureaucrats, I find it very hard to believe they'll ever accept Monero.

You think coinbase LIKES IT that they have to appease regulators and bureaucrats?  Or they're doing it because they unfortunately HAVE to do it to stay in business?

All that shit they do has a definite COST to them, i.e. it's expensive to gain a new customer: do you think they are happy when they *have to* deliberately throw away a customer's account for no real reason?

IMHO seems to me that coinbase may internally just LOVE Monero now, precisely because it's gonna give them a natural way to be easily able to STOP DOING all that shit (at least for XMR transactions, if not Bitcoin/Ether going forward).

With Monero, they can say, "Oh, yeah sure guys, we would just love to keep tracking all this stuff for y'all but <snap> seems like it just ain't possible with this-here new crypto and its architecture.  Sorry 'bout that.  So, tell ya what: we'll track it as far as we can for ya, just single deposit source and withdraw address, I guess, with the customer viewkey here that we'll require them to give us, but anything after that?  Sorry, you guys gonna be on your own for anything further about any of our customers that you need to investigate.  Guess y'all just gotta go back to old fashioned normal police work again and not make us do all your dirty work for ya any more..."

 

Don't forget that they are fighting in court the blanket request they received for everyone's transaction and personal data. BTW does anyone know how that is going?

Not being able to track does not absolve them of KYC.

If you show up to your bank with a pile of untraceable cash, they still need to do diligence to make sure the source is legitimate.  Instead of blockchain analysis, they do things like asking for the source, validating through tax returns, trading records and other documents.

For example, think of all the customers of Coinbase who pull coins out to cold storage.  When you pull them back in, it is a simple matter of checking the blockchain to see that they came from Coinbase and are now returning.  Diligence is pretty easy.  With Monero, isn't it a black box?

And I think optics for tax case are terrible - IRS will say to court "Look, they just made it even easier to hide assets!"

I don't think they will list it for those reasons.  If they do, I think it will come with extreme KYC which will discourage it from being a big market.

But I'll be happy if I'm wrong!

[KeyJockey]

Not being able to track does not absolve them of KYC.

You're right and they'll still do the same KYC which is already more than most banks do.  And your bank example is correct so all coinbase has to do to be in compliance at the same or greater level of the banks is track ONE HOP of the transactions coming into or going out of their site.

Do banks need to follow dollar bills as they go to the third or fourth person down the line?  Can they do that?  Nope.  And that's what coinbase is doing already with bitcoin transactions (and it's excessive and not reasonable, and they just need a good reason why they need to STOP doing it.  Monero provides that reason).

And I think optics for tax case are terrible - IRS will say to court "Look, they just made it even easier to hide assets!"

Coinbase is doing nothing of the sort, it's just how Monero works and they can't help it.  ADDING MONERO to their services is simply keeping up with the competition and being part of the industry.  Their major competitor KRAKEN already supports Monero so Coinbase is just doing it too, to just keep up as every company must.

But, yes, sure you're right and nobody knows what will happen.  We'll see soon enough.

In any case coinbase has said very clearly they're gonna add more currencies and given Charlie's tweets about Dash I think we can pretty safely say it won't be them, LOL 

Maybe coinbase will surprise everyone and add Dogecoin LOL

[Hueristic]

Given the fact that coinbase is trying so hard to appease regulators and bureaucrats, I find it very hard to believe they'll ever accept Monero.

You think coinbase LIKES IT that they have to appease regulators and bureaucrats?  Or they're doing it because they unfortunately HAVE to do it to stay in business?

All that shit they do has a definite COST to them, i.e. it's expensive to gain a new customer: do you think they are happy when they *have to* deliberately throw away a customer's account for no real reason?

IMHO seems to me that coinbase may internally just LOVE Monero now, precisely because it's gonna give them a natural way to be easily able to STOP DOING all that shit (at least for XMR transactions, if not Bitcoin/Ether going forward).

With Monero, they can say, "Oh, yeah sure guys, we would just love to keep tracking all this stuff for y'all but <snap> seems like it just ain't possible with this-here new crypto and its architecture.  Sorry 'bout that.  So, tell ya what: we'll track it as far as we can for ya, just single deposit source and withdraw address, I guess, with the customer viewkey here that we'll require them to give us, but anything after that?  Sorry, you guys gonna be on your own for anything further about any of our customers that you need to investigate.  Guess y'all just gotta go back to old fashioned normal police work again and not make us do all your dirty work for ya any more..."

 

Don't forget that they are fighting in court the blanket request they received for everyone's transaction and personal data. BTW does anyone know how that is going?

Not being able to track does not absolve them of KYC.

If you show up to your bank with a pile of untraceable cash, they still need to do diligence to make sure the source is legitimate.  Instead of blockchain analysis, they do things like asking for the source, validating through tax returns, trading records and other documents.

For example, think of all the customers of Coinbase who pull coins out to cold storage.  When you pull them back in, it is a simple matter of checking the blockchain to see that they came from Coinbase and are now returning.  Diligence is pretty easy.  With Monero, isn't it a black box?

And I think optics for tax case are terrible - IRS will say to court "Look, they just made it even easier to hide assets!"

I don't think they will list it for those reasons.  If they do, I think it will come with extreme KYC which will discourage it from being a big market.

But I'll be happy if I'm wrong!

I'm not sure why your trying to explain common knowledge to me, could you try to answer the question I actually asked?

[Hueristic]

Do you have a link to rangedrivers original chart post?

As above.

thx but I mean the actual post.

[explorer]

img snip

Do you have a link to rangedrivers original chart post?

As above.

thx but I mean the actual post.

Not much more helpful.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16608707#msg16608707

[Iranus]

Monero is the market leader, just look at the blockchain usage

Yes, well my theory about what may really be going on with this epic DashPump (outlined above) comes down to IF they can pull this off and artificially stimulate merchant adoption, giving Dashers new places to actually spend their coins, BEFORE the pumpers run out of fuel...?  They MAY be able to create the illusion of success long enough to transition into actually becoming bitcoin's replacement (assuming BTC continues to bang its head against the wall stagnating on the blocksize issue and BTC transactions keep getting slower and slower and more and more expensive, long enough to let something else take over).

IF this happens (latter part of paragraph above) it may mean that *yes*, Dash is worse technology than superior Monero, but it's still just a little bit better, enough, than Bitcoin... to take over BTC's role for people who don't really care about fungibility (privacy).

It doesn't affect Monero really as XMR being real fungible private anonymous *digital cash* will take it's rightful place in that role whether or not BTC or DASH is the non-fungible open blockchain transparent coin option.  Obviously I'd personally prefer to see XMR take over the role of BOTH things but that will depend on the average man on the street starting to actually care about his privacy, and that seems to be a tall order.

ANYWAY... bottom line, for me?  I want to VERY CAREFULLY WATCH AND TRACK the actual increase (possible?) of real Dash transactions... to detect if they're pulling this off successfully or not *before* the fake PUMP will lose fuel and dump back to where it started.

If their attempt works and actual transactions start happening (I have a small suspicion this ploy may actually succeed, even given low odds) then it will make sense to re-buy back into Dash (ugh!) as my crypto portfolio needs to be properly hedged against BTC's possible failure... even buy-in again at these inflated prices of $50 to $100 per coin -- IF it turns out that the DashMaster's ploy here will be successful.  If that happens, and bitcoin dies, and Dash starts replacing real BTC transactions in actual use by normal people, well... then $500+ per Dash coin isn't out of the question.

OTOH if their ploy fails?  If actual transactions don't start happening?  Well, then this was just a failed Epic Hail Mary Pass play and the fake DashPump bubble will crash down again to ten or twenty bucks a coin and we all will be just happy to have stayed out of the fray at all.

Comments?  Whatta you guys think?

And WHERE is the best place/way to monitor actual increasing Dash real world transactions IF it starts happening...?

P.S. {Edit} As just one recent example I've seen, where I've become concerned that this ploy may actually have a chance to succeed my favorite bitcoin online casino site www.bitcoinvideocasino.com recently unveiled, wait for it, www.dashvideocasino.com    

AND they've said they have plans for several other altcoin specific sites including www.monerovideocasino.com but -- here's the thing -- they've started already with DASH.  

So, this is concerning. They did Dash first, and they did it pretty fast.

IF this kind of thing starts happening much more then, yes, maybe the DashMasters could actually have a shot at this Hail Mary Pass being successful (low odds, but still a shot...)

No, this definitely won't happen.  Based on my calcuations, the market cap of Dash ($659,228,382 at the time of writing), is about 15% that of Ethereum ($4,248,956,315 at the time of writing).  Therefore the supposedly great DASH pump is weak even compared to Ethereum and is even a much weaker altcoin, never mind being able to compete with Bitcoin.  Furthermore, the supposed price of $100 or so which has gone down a tad from its peak already, was partially based on the supply of DASH being less than half that of Bitcoin, therefore in terms that are relative to Bitcoin DASH's price would be well under $50.

Furthermore, this market adoption, while interesting, is minor and will continue to be so until DASH finally runs out of steam, which it will do even if it remains a genuine competitor to Bitcoin.  Monero is comparatively stronger and its growth healthier.

[kurious]

More Monero volume on Polo than Dash....

Price is nice - and if rangedriver is right, well - who needs marketing, rather than superior tech?

[ujang1]

I noticed a certain pattern Dash 90$ Ethereum 45$ Monero 22$

[Hueristic]

img snip

Do you have a link to rangedrivers original chart post?

As above.

thx but I mean the actual post.

Not much more helpful.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16608707#msg16608707

Actually it is as I can find the other ones from there!

Here's Smoothies, looking for mine.



Funny reply from Smoothie as well. Lol

https://i.imgur.com/8O8I5FN.png

i wish...

[Hueristic]

This was mine, how do you do the overlay on these?



Weird can't get the image to display. Hate when that happens, here's the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16610638#msg16610638

EDIT: Fixed I think


ADDED: I can't find anymore, did anyone else do one?

[KeyJockey]

No, this definitely won't happen.  Based on my calcuations, the market cap of Dash ($659,228,382 at the time of writing), is about 15% that of Ethereum ($4,248,956,315 at the time of writing).  Therefore the supposedly great DASH pump is weak even compared to Ethereum and is even a much weaker altcoin, never mind being able to compete with Bitcoin.  Furthermore, the supposed price of $100 or so which has gone down a tad from its peak already, was partially based on the supply of DASH being less than half that of Bitcoin, therefore in terms that are relative to Bitcoin DASH's price would be well under $50.

Furthermore, this market adoption, while interesting, is minor and will continue to be so until DASH finally runs out of steam, which it will do even if it remains a genuine competitor to Bitcoin.  Monero is comparatively stronger and its growth healthier.

Thanks a lot for reply, good info: much appreciated

However I was hoping to get more responses on this line of inquiry here, just because my possible mistake in selling the Dash 'hedge' position I held until late last year has been nagging me so much during this big crazy-ass DashPump, LOL

The whole reason I got into alts in the first place (including XMR) was -- first and foremost -- to protect against bitcoin failing.

I sincerely believe that the world's transition to a future with cryptocurrency embedded in society is going to be the greatest wealth transfer tsunami of all time.

BUT problem for all of us is going to be making the right decisions, as it all evolves.  Bitcoin is a brilliant invention and Satoshi was a genius but there's no guarantee that as Version 1.0 it will be the be-all and end-all implementation of the crypto currency concept forever. Hardly any software is really ever any good until at least Version 3.0

I believe I am sufficiently diversified out of just BTC into XMR (large position) ETH (small position) and others (even smaller position) to be reasonably safe that I'm covered, so far, whatever happens, unless and until some newer/better coin comes along.  

But now this damn DashPump has come along and thrown a monkey wrench at my balanced (I believed) position, LOL

I can see now it was a mistake a couple months ago to dump the few Dash I acquired very cheap, long ago (invested less than 1 BTC) but now I do NOT wanna buy in again for restoring my hedge at this PUMPED price.  That's just too expensive given the high likelihood that this is just another P&D and the crash will probably come soon enough.

If it falls back to $20, okay maybe then I will... just to cover all possible outcomes IF again Dash comes back somehow again but "for real" the second time.

But, guys... listen: if the DUMP from this PUMP does not come?  We have to be ready to face the fact that XMR may not win. We MAY be WRONG here, about Dash, despite all the indications we think we see.

Remember Fluffy even says "Do Not Buy Monero" LOL

XMR is better tech, no question, but sometimes other things take on more priority and we can't foresee what really matters, or why SHIT happens.

===

So, anyone else have ideas here, HOW all of us in the Monero community can "keep a smart eye on" what DASH is doing too, just to keep ourselves grounded and reality check that we are not missing the boat due to all of our love here for HoneyPony...

I'd rather discuss this and do the work on it in the MONERO COMMUNITY and not join the DASH Community really... just 'cuz, y'know... fuck those guys.  LOL

But IF my theory about the DashMasters using their Pump Power to "buy" merchant adoption is possible, although unlikely, HOW can we monitor that to be aware IF it's happening?  

What's the best way to keep tabs on actual DASH TRANSACTIONS to be aware if they start getting real usage going?

Thanks again, in advance, for more replies

[rangedriver]

Do you have a link to rangedrivers original chart post?

As above.

thx but I mean the actual post.

That's all that was posted:-

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16608707#msg16608707

Seriously folks I wouldn't be reading too much into this chart. It literally took me less than 7 seconds to make!

It's kinda fun to compare with the current chart after all these months, but it's not indicative of any voodoo economical magic or intensive chart painting.

[mnemonicsoup]

@KeyJockey

I disagree. Even if Dash is pumped to a 1000$ it has not "won", too many people will never trust Dash, there are just too many warning signals.

[owlcatz]

@KeyJockey

I disagree. Even if Dash is pumped to a 1000$ it has not "won", too many people will never trust Dash, there are just too many warning signals.

Even nasdaq.com had an article exploring the "dash scam".... I expect that eventually that coin will fail, marketing does not make a coin with no usage, not that XMR has more or less but still. I have no butthurt over it other than not holding mined DRK's from years ago, but hey, i'm not alone. Time will prove the winners in the "anon" coins arms race. I'm sort of surprised people keep bringing it up here as it's clearly not an "anon" coin anymore, at least IMO. Thanks.

[CO2]

Finally sold my 127 Moneros (bought them at ~4 EUR). Gonna invest like 400-600€ in some other Altcoins and the rest in Bitcoins. I think Bitcoin gonna get around 1100-1200€ at the end of the next week.

[rangedriver]

Worried that you're not going to meet your target?      

Who knows? Maybe I'm wrong on this one. Maybe not. What can I say?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXYeARRyDWk

[rangedriver]

I agree,.... TrueCrypt has the best trading advice on this whole thread i think

i'll be making sure i listen to him a lot more offten from now on

LOL.

Yeah.....I know who you are.

Twat.

[Scrotum]

@KeyJockey

I disagree. Even if Dash is pumped to a 1000$ it has not "won", too many people will never trust Dash, there are just too many warning signals.

I agree, and even if Dash is accepted and scam launch and inferior tech don't eventually kill it, to succeed in crypto wealth transfer you don't need to be right for every coin and asset, you just need to be right about enough  to make good money. XMR is better than Dash and has a good fututre, so if you're patient you make life changing wealth. The factors pumping Dash and Ethereum are much more nebulous and unpredictable.  Be like Warren Buffet, work inside a smaller sphere of knowledge where you can become an expert (I.e the fundamentals), you can only be an expert in pump and hype if you're behind the hype and pump, which no-one really is fully. Be like WB, you only swing at pitches you know you can hit, leave everything else alone, then you can only make money in the end.