[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

where could I see this dollar chart?

Thanks,

Phil

A good place to see a lot of Monero stats is:

https://www.monero.how/

If you're on a mac you can put a ticker in your menu bar, too.   I keep an eye on current USD value via this site.

[KeyJockey]

Shifting gears a little bit: question for everyone here...

IF there's a bitcoin blockchain split and the overall value of both sides added together DROPS (as some people say, i.e. before split BTC = $1,000 but after split with say 80/20 hashrate division, the value is not $800/$200 but rather something like $600/$100, or less, due to loss of network effect)... do you guys think the "lost value" will just disappear i.e. go back to "dollars" as leaving "crypto" entirely, OR would it be reflected in increased "dollar value" of ALTS (even as, probably, the relevant alt-value as priced "in bitcoin" will almost certainly decrease...?)

TL;DR above :: if there's a BTC chain split, will those of us with appropriately balanced portfolios of alt-coins (XMR/ETH/MAID/DASH/etc) see the dollar-valuation of that portfolio stay largely the same, or will we need to be ready to DO something other than just ride-out the storm until bitcoin settles down again, post-split...?

Whadda Y'all Think... who's planning for what scenarios here?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Shifting gears a little bit: question for everyone here...

IF there's a bitcoin blockchain split and the overall value of both sides added together DROPS (as some people say, i.e. before split BTC = $1,000 but after split with say 80/20 hashrate division, the value is not $800/$200 but rather something like $600/$100, or less, due to loss of network effect)... do you guys think the "lost value" will just disappear i.e. go back to "dollars" as leaving "crypto" entirely, OR would it be reflected in increased "dollar value" of ALTS (even as, probably, the relevant alt-value as priced "in bitcoin" will almost certainly decrease...?)

TL;DR above :: if there's a BTC chain split, will those of us with appropriately balanced portfolios of alt-coins (XMR/ETH/MAID/DASH/etc) see the dollar-valuation of that portfolio stay largely the same, or will we need to be ready to DO something other than just ride-out the storm until bitcoin settles down again, post-split...?

Whadda Y'all Think... who's planning for what scenarios here?

Thank you for very interesting question.
I have also being thinking this a lot recently and I have to admit I have been pretty worried for the sake of bitcoin recently for the first time since 2013 when I first bought in.
You are right value will be probably disappearing and most likely one of the two will remain and the other blockchain probably dies. There might be an exchage that trades between those two bitcoins and the one that the majority will choose will prevail and the other goes towards 0.
That could be potentially very good opportunity for Monero to shine... Dark coin has already started to shine like the radiant sun but I am afraid its heat will burn many from alive eventually so no time to FOMO buy anymore it... A prudent investor will start accumulating Moneros now while they are still this cheap.. If Bitcoin splits into 2 parts, it is very possible that Monero reaches 1:1 parity with bitcoin (or some other alt coin, Dark coin perhaps?). Etherium is much more nice coin than Monero... Ripple is run by the company so we are left with Dark coin, XMR or LTC perhaps...?

[kurious]

Shifting gears a little bit: question for everyone here...

IF there's a bitcoin blockchain split and the overall value of both sides added together DROPS (as some people say, i.e. before split BTC = $1,000 but after split with say 80/20 hashrate division, the value is not $800/$200 but rather something like $600/$100, or less, due to loss of network effect)... do you guys think the "lost value" will just disappear i.e. go back to "dollars" as leaving "crypto" entirely, OR would it be reflected in increased "dollar value" of ALTS (even as, probably, the relevant alt-value as priced "in bitcoin" will almost certainly decrease...?)

TL;DR above :: if there's a BTC chain split, will those of us with appropriately balanced portfolios of alt-coins (XMR/ETH/MAID/DASH/etc) see the dollar-valuation of that portfolio stay largely the same, or will we need to be ready to DO something other than just ride-out the storm until bitcoin settles down again, post-split...?

Whadda Y'all Think... who's planning for what scenarios here?

After the ETH split the lesser fork increased in value and is still viable now.  The value of the two was after a while greater than the original ETH.  Now ETC is less significant as ETH has grown so much - but it was not (as expected) a fast death for the 'alt'.

BTC is different - all the Alt market is priced in Bitcoin and let's face it, it is the best way to cash out of any alt (buy BTC with it, cash out of BTC).

So in Bitcoin a split could in my view hit price hard - it is already why BTC has fallen and cannot break out.  Even the uncertainty is hurting.  The two chains will probably not add up to greater than the 'original' since upon a split, the news would be 'Bitcoin is broken' and 'now the supply of Bitcoin is doubled'. Volatility and acrimony will be the initial result.

Value (even as a split looks realistic) could plummet initially and Alts will not simply rise up - they could be hit hard too.   Alts are 'alternatives to Bitcoin' so the whole market will be jittery and volatile, unless there is a clear winner that unites Bitcoin and does so fast.

If Bitcoin looks like dying (it won't - but it might look like it), then all crypto is at risk to some extent.   Imagine selling a new Alt coin venture just after the shit has hit the fan with BTC?

Eventually it will play out, yes - but a contentious fork (a civil war in Bitcoin) will be bad for crypto as a whole, in the short term at least.  I hope it does not happen; it will not be good for the market if the rock-solid reputation of the main coin as 'one bitcoin, fixed supply, chain impossible to crack' is in question because there are 'two' Bitcoins on two chains with twice as many in circulation all of a sudden.

Both will claim they are Bitcoin, neither will be lying, but both will accuse the other of betraying Satoshi's idea.

That's my 2 cents.

[wachtwoord]

BU would be lying.

[kurious]

BU would be lying.

I take no sides here, but they would claim it is a fork of the original Bitcoin blockchain. They would not be lying in saying that.

I don't want Core vs BU debate here, it is blissfully free of it, I was just answering a question here on the effect on us.  What I think personally is that a fork is not 'woo, free extra coins' it is a total shitstorm we could really do without.

[KeyJockey]

Thanks for all answers guys...

So summary "so far" are we concluding that IF the shit starts to hit the fan THEN possibly the most appropriate action to protect currently-realized value-gains in 'buying power' from all our crypto portfolio investment and coin-balancing management, etc, so far, is going to be to totally bail out of all crypto entirely and go back into (ugh) DOLLARS, until the BTC dust settles...?

ideologically that'd be my LEAST preferred action to take, LOL, since a big reason I got into crypto in the first place was just 'cuz I believe the old-world fiat system is probably at MORE risk of blowing up in the near future than our newer, better, math-secured crypto-future.  Going BACK to THAT even temporarily just for "safety" just kind of feels... wrong.  LOL

But maybe during this unfortunate necessary 'growing pains' period in evolution to that future it'll be necessary anyway...?  Hmm.

P.S. {Edit} It's probably mostly due to BTC weakness I guess but still nice to see HoneyPony back in the 020's today

[kurious]

P.S. {Edit} It's probably mostly due to BTC weakness I guess but still nice to see HoneyPony back in the 020's today

Yes, but it acted strangely when the big drop down to almost 1000 just happened and the price didn't go up as much as it has been (proportionately).

We should be over 022

[Hueristic]

where could I see this dollar chart?

Thanks,

Phil

A good place to see a lot of Monero stats is:

https://www.monero.how/

If you're on a mac you can put a ticker in your menu bar, too.   I keep an eye on current USD value via this site.

I have this plugin for Firefox.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/bitcoin-price-ticker/?src=api

[kurious]

where could I see this dollar chart?

Thanks,

Phil

A good place to see a lot of Monero stats is:

https://www.monero.how/

If you're on a mac you can put a ticker in your menu bar, too.   I keep an eye on current USD value via this site.

I have this plugin for Firefox.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/bitcoin-price-ticker/?src=api

Yep - spotted that, thanks!

I wish it would tell me why the hell we are suddenly going up and down WITH BTC, instead of inversely.

Why the flip in behaviour? I hope it's not crypto 'Fork' nerves, meaning the BTC price is suddenly the canary in the coal mine.

Anyone care to speculate on this price behaviour? Unless I am wrong in this of course.

[Hueristic]

where could I see this dollar chart?

Thanks,

Phil

A good place to see a lot of Monero stats is:

https://www.monero.how/

If you're on a mac you can put a ticker in your menu bar, too.   I keep an eye on current USD value via this site.

I have this plugin for Firefox.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/bitcoin-price-ticker/?src=api

Yep - spotted that, thanks!

I wish it would tell me why the hell we are suddenly going up and down WITH BTC, instead of inversely.

Why the flip in behaviour? I hope it's not crypto 'Fork' nerves, meaning the BTC price is suddenly the canary in the coal mine.

Anyone care to speculate on this price behaviour? Unless I am wrong in this of course.

My guess is BTC is way overpriced and there is profit taking and with the large jump in XMR there is also profit taking. I'm gueesing a drop then sideways then another spike rinse repeat. this seems to be the modus operandi since the initial spike.

[kurious]

My guess is BTC is way overpriced and there is profit taking and with the large jump in XMR there is also profit taking. I'm gueesing a drop then sideways then another spike rinse repeat. this seems to be the modus operandi since the initial spike.

As mentioned in WallObserver - maybe it's the fact some exchanges are mailing people about BTC 'doom / fork' - here is Circle's advice:

'Potential Bitcoin Changes
We wanted to provide you with some important information regarding potential changes to Bitcoin that could significantly impact bitcoin held in your Circle Account.

As described in our User Agreement, “Bitcoin is a decentralized currency that operates on open source software protocols which can be used, modified or adapted by anyone... As a result of the decentralized nature of Bitcoin it is possible that sudden, unexpected or controversial changes (“forks”) can be made to Bitcoin.”

Based on recent developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem, it now seems likely that one or more forks of Bitcoin may occur in the near future. Any fork of Bitcoin may have a significant impact on the value of bitcoin and your ability to access the bitcoin you hold with Circle.

What should I do?
The only way to avoid the potential negative consequences of a Bitcoin fork is to not hold bitcoin. Just go to Settings > Currency and convert your balance to dollars, pounds or euro (availability is based on where you live). You’ll then be able to hold those funds with Circle or cash out instantly.'


So nervousness about BTC affects all of us in Cryptoland...

Basically 'Bitcoin is risky' warnings from actual Bitcoin exchanges is hardly inspiring confidence.

Here is your answer to the 'does the fork affect us' question, peeps.  And it's why we aren't up when BTC just tanked to under a thousand bucks.  We should have soared up.

Excuse me, but this fork shit is hurting the value of crypto overall.  The self-righteous Bitcoin camps are myopic and intransigent and are unwilling to seek a compromise as they are all 'right'.  I seriously doubt any of them have the 'best' answer.   Satoshi might have, but there are only fake messiahs speaking now.

A plague on all their houses. And thus this battle of wills will be decided in battle. I just hope it is quick.

I cashed in as much as I could in BTC before the ETF and took it out of the market.  I see no reason to re-enter BTC right now, other than by cashing in my precious XMR and balancing my portfolio and I feel vindicated in my move.  Now it is affecting everything and the fuckers are too busy being 'right' to notice they may be burning down the house.

The glee on BTCWallObserver is slightly sickening 'Nothing wrong here, ATH soon...'

Sure.

[LennyCarl]

My guess is BTC is way overpriced and there is profit taking and with the large jump in XMR there is also profit taking. I'm gueesing a drop then sideways then another spike rinse repeat. this seems to be the modus operandi since the initial spike.

As mentioned in WallObserver - maybe it's the fact some exchanges are mailing people about BTC 'doom / fork' - here is Circle's advice:


So nervousness about BTC affects all of us in Cryptoland...

Basically 'Bitcoin is risky' warnings from actual Bitcoin exchanges is hardly inspiring confidence.

Here is your answer to the 'does the fork affect us' question, peeps.  And it's why we aren't up when BTC just tanked to under a thousand bucks.  We should have soared up.

Excuse me, but this fork shit is hurting the value of crypto overall.  The self-righteous Bitcoin camps are myopic and intransigent and are unwilling to seek a compromise as they are all 'right'.  I seriously doubt any of them have the 'best' answer.   Satoshi might have, but there are only fake messiahs speaking now.

A plague on all their houses. And thus this battle of wills will be decided in battle. I just hope it is quick.

I cashed in as much as I could in BTC before the ETF and took it out of the market.  I see no reason to re-enter BTC right now, other than by cashing in my precious XMR and balancing my portfolio and I feel vindicated in my move.  Now it is affecting everything and the fuckers are too busy being 'right' to notice they may be burning down the house.

The glee on BTCWallObserver is slightly sickening 'Nothing wrong here, ATH soon...'

Sure.

Coinbase has a similar warning:

"Update for Customers With Bitcoin Stored on Coinbase
We wanted to provide customers notice of how a possible hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol into Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited will affect Coinbase accounts.
The only version of Bitcoin supported on the Coinbase platform today is Bitcoin Core, currently represented by the symbol BTC.
We may provide support for Bitcoin Unlimited in the future depending on market conditions and stability of the protocol, but we cannot guarantee whether or when such support may be available. Customers who wish to access both blockchains at the time of the hard fork should withdraw their BTC from Coinbase since we cannot guarantee what will happen during the hard fork or when this access may be available.
If one chain receives an overwhelming majority of support from miners, users, and exchanges, we reserve the right to alter the names of chains or discontinue support for certain chains in the future.
Ensuring the safety of customer funds is our top priority. In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol, it is likely that Coinbase will temporarily suspend the deposit and withdrawal of bitcoin from the platform pending our assessment of the technical risks posed by any fork, such as the possibility of replay attacks, network instability, or other factors. Customers should take note that they will not be able to withdraw bitcoin from or deposit bitcoin to Coinbase for a period of up to 24 hours or more following the fork. In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol, Coinbase may suspend the ability to buy or sell on our platform during this time.
Coinbase looks forward to working with other exchanges and development teams to ensure the smooth execution of future hard forks with as little disruption as possible. Customers should continue to monitor our support pages and Twitter account for updates regarding our support for digital currencies on the platform."

I'm a little torn on if I should cash out some bitcoins or what? Sucky feeling.

[kurious]

Coinbase has a similar warning:

"............."

I'm a little torn on if I should cash out some bitcoins or what? Sucky feeling.

You aren't the only one - see Bitcoin price.

[Hueristic]

My guess is BTC is way overpriced and there is profit taking and with the large jump in XMR there is also profit taking. I'm gueesing a drop then sideways then another spike rinse repeat. this seems to be the modus operandi since the initial spike.

As mentioned in WallObserver - maybe it's the fact some exchanges are mailing people about BTC 'doom / fork' - here is Circle's advice:


So nervousness about BTC affects all of us in Cryptoland...

Basically 'Bitcoin is risky' warnings from actual Bitcoin exchanges is hardly inspiring confidence.

Here is your answer to the 'does the fork affect us' question, peeps.  And it's why we aren't up when BTC just tanked to under a thousand bucks.  We should have soared up.

Excuse me, but this fork shit is hurting the value of crypto overall.  The self-righteous Bitcoin camps are myopic and intransigent and are unwilling to seek a compromise as they are all 'right'.  I seriously doubt any of them have the 'best' answer.   Satoshi might have, but there are only fake messiahs speaking now.

A plague on all their houses. And thus this battle of wills will be decided in battle. I just hope it is quick.

I cashed in as much as I could in BTC before the ETF and took it out of the market.  I see no reason to re-enter BTC right now, other than by cashing in my precious XMR and balancing my portfolio and I feel vindicated in my move.  Now it is affecting everything and the fuckers are too busy being 'right' to notice they may be burning down the house.

The glee on BTCWallObserver is slightly sickening 'Nothing wrong here, ATH soon...'

Sure.

Coinbase has a similar warning:

"Update for Customers With Bitcoin Stored on Coinbase
We wanted to provide customers notice of how a possible hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol into Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited will affect Coinbase accounts.
The only version of Bitcoin supported on the Coinbase platform today is Bitcoin Core, currently represented by the symbol BTC.
We may provide support for Bitcoin Unlimited in the future depending on market conditions and stability of the protocol, but we cannot guarantee whether or when such support may be available. Customers who wish to access both blockchains at the time of the hard fork should withdraw their BTC from Coinbase since we cannot guarantee what will happen during the hard fork or when this access may be available.
If one chain receives an overwhelming majority of support from miners, users, and exchanges, we reserve the right to alter the names of chains or discontinue support for certain chains in the future.
Ensuring the safety of customer funds is our top priority. In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol, it is likely that Coinbase will temporarily suspend the deposit and withdrawal of bitcoin from the platform pending our assessment of the technical risks posed by any fork, such as the possibility of replay attacks, network instability, or other factors. Customers should take note that they will not be able to withdraw bitcoin from or deposit bitcoin to Coinbase for a period of up to 24 hours or more following the fork. In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol, Coinbase may suspend the ability to buy or sell on our platform during this time.
Coinbase looks forward to working with other exchanges and development teams to ensure the smooth execution of future hard forks with as little disruption as possible. Customers should continue to monitor our support pages and Twitter account for updates regarding our support for digital currencies on the platform."

I'm a little torn on if I should cash out some bitcoins or what? Sucky feeling.

Them Cocksuckers! At least I know what BTC I have on Polo will be handled correctly as in ETH/ETC. Luckily I also cashed out @ $20.5 but I had only built up to 40 coins anyway since sept.

[iCEBREAKER]

And many many people lost a fuckload of money because fluffy was telling everybody how bad dash is, right before it sprung x10. These people shorted dash because they beliefed fluffy, and lost all, these shorters are the ones which made the dash price rise exponential bigger than it would have been without the shorting. And they shorted because dash is so bad and its just a pump and dump scam coin and so on, at least everybody told them so - for them 20 dollar a dash was hardly overpriced, look where dash is now.

If you ask for who was scammed by dash, you won't find one (at least noone who was buying in the last 3 years), because price went from ath to ath, there could no one be scammed per definition, because noone could have lost with ath after ath. (for me a scam is if someone loses money! - ofc thats my definition, but its true!). On the other hand lots and lots of people lost money because they shorted dash after all that "its a total scam coin" definition from fluffy and his friends with all these cool videos...

This man speaks the truth. Just keep on listening to Fulffy and Icebreaker and Smooth and Generalthis and who else if you want to keep on losing money. Their track record so far certainly indicates that.

Oh sure, it's terrible how I told people to buy Monero for under 25 cents and then $1 while they had the chance.

We're crying in our Teslas.... 

oh i remember how you told tante that its unresponsible to not sell dash at 50$ ... you pushed it hard ... and for her luck she didn't response to you false prediction and dash rose another 50 $ to above 100 $ ... you are the real deal if it goes to trading advises !!!

keep trolling

I informed tante the responsible (especially for a lower middle class middle aged mother) thing to do with a huge rise in a high risk speculative asset is to take *SOME* money off the table.

I did not tell her to sell *ALL* her Dash, suggesting 50% as an easy place to draw the line.

Do you understand the difference between selling 50% and selling 100%?

It seems you do not, so I will explain as if you are 5 years old.

When you take profit, you may either cash out all of the position (which reduces to zero your future exposure to price changes) or cash out a part of your position (which locks in profit while still providing exposure to future price changes).

Letting it all ride "Because Muh Hot Streak" is the hallmark of a gambling addict, and Dash is very much more of a set of poker chips for whales and Instaminers than a fairly distributed coin.

It's a texbook example of why poor people stay poor.  They get greedy and the first bit of success goes to their head.

Unfortunately, pigs get slaughtered.

Finally, you have no way to knowing whether or not, nor to what extent, anyone took my advice to diversify.

Whether it's Bitcoin, Monero, or a scam like Dash, common sense tells us to diversify when a portfolio becomes imbalanced.

Defy common sense at your peril.  There is no need to get married to an asset and hold it exclusively, especially when a golden opportunity to diversity substantial sums of newly created wealth knocks on your door.

[KeyJockey]

I'm a little torn on if I should cash out some bitcoins or what? Sucky feeling.

Yah, well, that's the genesis of reason for my post at the top of this page, i.e. why I started this topic conversation here.

Personally, I've yet to sell-out of ANY crypto back into dollars (ugh) due to all this noise: but we've gotta look at the possibility here.  That may be a prudent course of action SHOULD things get much more crazy than they already are (which is *already* vastly worse and has gone on *much* longer than I'd have ever imagined it could've gone on, if you'd asked me two years ago when The Blocksize Issue first started to get serious).

OTOH, the main reason that I may NOT choose to sell-out back into dollars, and just try and HODL and ride-out the coming storm, is because of certain predictions lately from arguably credible prognosticators that bitcoin is going to be trading for north of $10,000 to $13,000 sometime around next February.          

If that's the case, even if it has a small chance of being true, trying to TIME THE MARKET and get OUT for all this chain-split noise NOW, and then get back IN fully for whatever will be triggering this 10X spike before next spring, could be really tough to pull off.

As frantic-feeling as HODL'ing may be during all this... it may (yet again, LOL) end up being the easiest strategy to follow.

Interesting Times We Live In... 

[Shiroslullaby]

Unless you really need the money, its probably better to HODL to any decent coin at this point. 
I would put Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum in this category. 
There is probably much more of a chance at an upside than a large loss on any decent project at this point.

[NattyLiteCoin]

As a recent diviserfier on the fence about protecting the value of his portfolio, is there any flaw in the logic to assume a temporary safe haven with XMR, specifically due to its connection to poloniex?  As these big Bitcoin infrastructures brace for a split, it may become incumbent on such entities to protect their nest egg until this plays out. Thoughts?

[exortis]

xmr
There are many sales pressures