[XMR] Monero Speculation

[elrippos friend]

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
                 Monero    Bitcoin       Ratio
Jun 2020   340,895   9,192,440   3.71%
May 2020   400,871   9,092,682   4.41%
Apr 2020   365,875   8,702,021   4.20%
Mar 2020   303,291   8,904,203   3.41%
Feb 2020   231,953   9,439,548   2.46%
Jan 2020   257,942   9,612,337   2.68%
Dec 2019   216,720   9,430,057   2.30%
Nov 2019   212,716   9,243,776   2.30%
Oct 2019   179,114   9,892,853   1.81%
Sep 2019   159,225   9,798,992   1.62%

Second time in the last 9 months number of Monero transactions declined. In February decline was almost zero if we count 3 days less in a month. This drop happened at start of June. I heard someone saying it could be because of the end of covid-19 lockdown in Europe. We will see if number of transactions will increase again because of possible future lockdowns.  In general the growth in last 9 months is huge. Over 100%, while Bitcoin is about where it was.

To link COVID19 lockdown here in Europe to Monero transaction volume sounds a bit wild, don't you think? COVID19 seems to be the fault for everything now days ....

[Febo]

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
                 Monero    Bitcoin       Ratio
Jun 2020   340,895   9,192,440   3.71%
May 2020   400,871   9,092,682   4.41%
Apr 2020   365,875   8,702,021   4.20%
Mar 2020   303,291   8,904,203   3.41%
Feb 2020   231,953   9,439,548   2.46%
Jan 2020   257,942   9,612,337   2.68%
Dec 2019   216,720   9,430,057   2.30%
Nov 2019   212,716   9,243,776   2.30%
Oct 2019   179,114   9,892,853   1.81%
Sep 2019   159,225   9,798,992   1.62%

Second time in the last 9 months number of Monero transactions declined. In February decline was almost zero if we count 3 days less in a month. This drop happened at start of June. I heard someone saying it could be because of the end of covid-19 lockdown in Europe. We will see if number of transactions will increase again because of possible future lockdowns.  In general the growth in last 9 months is huge. Over 100%, while Bitcoin is about where it was.

To link COVID19 lockdown here in Europe to Monero transaction volume sounds a bit wild, don't you think? COVID19 seems to be the fault for everything now days ....

I dont think is that wild. I had no ideas what was reason. I just thought that simply need to catch a breath after such a growth. But when someone mention it I thought it could be possible since was exactly the right timing. I could not think of better reason so far.

[Digitradez]

I used to think Monero was a good investment but its clear to me that the btc ratio will not recover anywhere close to what it used to be. Obviously privacy is the main selling point of xmr but in reality most people dont care about privacy. I dont think xmr will die anything because it has a niche following but at this point things like ethereum will give a much better return on investment. The sheeps are all over facebook and instagram posting everything about their lives.

[Hueristic]

I used to think Monero was a good investment but its clear to me that the btc ratio will not recover anywhere close to what it used to be. Obviously privacy is the main selling point of xmr but in reality most people dont care about privacy. I dont think xmr will die anything because it has a niche following but at this point things like ethereum will give a much better return on investment. The sheeps are all over facebook and instagram posting everything about their lives.

Sad but true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8MO7fkZc5o

[Febo]

I used to think Monero was a good investment but its clear to me that the btc ratio will not recover anywhere close to what it used to be. Obviously privacy is the main selling point of xmr but in reality most people dont care about privacy. I dont think xmr will die anything because it has a niche following but at this point things like ethereum will give a much better return on investment.

Monero was not meant to be an investment but was made to be used as digital cash. When you will need to buy something or sell something, do think how to do it with help of Monero. Transaction fees are 0.2 cent. You can mine fees you need with your CPU.
If you want to invest go with Tesla shares or some other electric vehicle manufacturer. Their stocks are hot lately.

[Hueristic]

$66.66  

[cAPSLOCK]

I know I am highly biased.  But I still think XMR might actually be the most undervalued ALT in existence.

- defacto standard privacy coin
- one of the few truly decentralized alts
- 3rd largest dev community after BTC and ETH
- ONLY blockchain other than bitcoin with a growing real world use that is not synthetic (like weather data on BSV)
- RandomX effectively purpose built to define the CPU as the Monero ASIC. I will opine on this below
- Growing transaction volume
- Growing hashrate (presumably w/o ASICS)

I think RandomX has surprised me the most.  I felt like chasing ASIC resistance was becoming a very costly goal.  The bi yearly forks were a net negative in my humble opinion.  I was glad the consensus was to stop them after the final try at RandomX.  And that we felt the need to call the hard forks "network upgrades" was sort of proof that we knew we were doing something that is anti-decentralization for the tradeoff of defeating ASICS.  As much as I loved taking out bitmain on that first algorithm tweak, it was a bit of a defeat to keep doing that.

But RandomX is an ENORMOUS security upgrade for the network.  It makes mining centralization much harder to achieve.  And it sets monero apart as the truly CPU mineable coin with the newer AMD chips being the closest thing to an ASIC.

Monero is really the single coin with such a robust set of unique values.  I see some folks (and I know there are some here too) that still expect Monero to displace Bitcoin.  I have enjoyed watching @_the_archer on twitter opine about how Monero will eventually flip Bitcoin.

And I agree that Monero is what everyone thought Bitcoin was at the beginning, but not only do I think Monero cannot flip BTC, I have always said I think XMR is a compliment.  We NEED a transparent ledger, and an obfuscated one.  Also XMR is even less scalable.  It will end up being somewhat costly to use if it continues to grow.  Either that or the full nodes will become centralized.

Anyway...  I sure hope the promise of Monero is realized to some extent before I shuffle off this mortal coil.   Even though I still see BTC as the better "store of value" I think Monero's transnational value makes it far more valuable than it's current price reflects.

[bitebits]

^ Great post cAPSLOCK, thanks.

You can now pay Lightning invoices directly from https://xmr.to/
https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ho5ibv/xmrto_added_lightning_network_payments/

[phishead]

^ Great post cAPSLOCK, thanks.

You can now pay Lightning invoices directly from https://xmr.to/
https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ho5ibv/xmrto_added_lightning_network_payments/

Well damn this is cool

I forgot, is there any work in progress for a “LN” type of network for Monero?

And cAPS, what makes you think running nodes will become more centralized than what Bitcoin already is? Or is that not what you’re saying?

[Hueristic]

Better to speculate on UCIFETH. You'll get your money back after 100 days. Only $40 to start. http://ucifeth.com/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5241904.0

Heres a link to the scammer tags.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=2117132
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;flag=2020;support

Are you glad you posted this SCAM here?

[Globb0]

More green shoots is nice to see

[cAPSLOCK]

In the ever-present 68-72 range this is where to sell again.

But one of these times it's going to NOT be.

Is *this* one that time?

I don't know why, but it LOOKS to me like Monero is trying to pop out of this tight range.

Monero has been crazy low volitility for a while, and has seemed to move in a contrary way to BTC a lot of the time.  This last little bump is exactly that... BTC couldn't hold 9400 and as it fell Monero scooped up some momentum.  Interesting.

[Febo]

It seems totally stable for last 2 months. It could stay same for next 2 months since late summer is always slow.  At least volumes will probably stay low.

For those that dont know, XMR.to added lightning network payments. It seems it is even easier to pay with Monero then if you have Bitcoin.  OK, most merchants that have Lightning network payments also have Bitcoin payments. But not all and this feature will come more and more useful as more merchants will offer lightning network payments.

[Hueristic]

OK, fess up, who's buying?

[elrippos friend]

Looks like we are gaining, volumes keep on growing. The next two months will be interesting 

[Globb0]

Continuing the nice outlook today   

[dEBRUYNE]

he bi yearly forks were a net negative in my humble opinion.  I was glad the consensus was to stop them after the final try at RandomX.  And that we felt the need to call the hard forks "network upgrades" was sort of proof that we knew we were doing something that is anti-decentralization for the tradeoff of defeating ASICS.  As much as I loved taking out bitmain on that first algorithm tweak, it was a bit of a defeat to keep doing that.

We basically switched to the term scheduled network upgrade, because people associated the term hard-fork with a chain split that would create a new coin (and thus holders would be eligible for some kind of dividend). There used to be tons of questions on Reddit whether users would be getting some kind of dividend / new coin.

[phishead]

he bi yearly forks were a net negative in my humble opinion.  I was glad the consensus was to stop them after the final try at RandomX.  And that we felt the need to call the hard forks "network upgrades" was sort of proof that we knew we were doing something that is anti-decentralization for the tradeoff of defeating ASICS.  As much as I loved taking out bitmain on that first algorithm tweak, it was a bit of a defeat to keep doing that.

We basically switched to the term scheduled network upgrade, because people associated the term hard-fork with a chain split that would create a new coin (and thus holders would be eligible for some kind of dividend). There used to be tons of questions on Reddit whether users would be getting some kind of dividend / new coin.

Wait so are we not doing it biannually anymore? I do like the terminology “network upgrade” too.

[Febo]

he bi yearly forks were a net negative in my humble opinion.  I was glad the consensus was to stop them after the final try at RandomX.  And that we felt the need to call the hard forks "network upgrades" was sort of proof that we knew we were doing something that is anti-decentralization for the tradeoff of defeating ASICS.  As much as I loved taking out bitmain on that first algorithm tweak, it was a bit of a defeat to keep doing that.

We basically switched to the term scheduled network upgrade, because people associated the term hard-fork with a chain split that would create a new coin (and thus holders would be eligible for some kind of dividend). There used to be tons of questions on Reddit whether users would be getting some kind of dividend / new coin.

Wait so are we not doing it biannually anymore? I do like the terminology “network upgrade” too.

I believe idea is to do upgrades when they are ready and that is about twice a year. So nothing really changed. In the past almost all upgrades needed to be hardforks. Last one was not. There is misunderstanding in crypto community that Monero was doing hardforks to change mining algo. That is not true. Monero was doing hardforks to upgrade its protocol with new things, while doing it they also could tweak mining algo a bit. It was just an opportunity and if that opportunity would not exist Monero would have ASIC miners before RandomX.  Next upgrade will be hardfork again.   At the end the diferences between hardfork upgrade and not hardfork upgrade are that when hardfork you need to upgrade your wallet. So that makes whole network with the latest software and that is good. Since last upgrade was not hardfork we can still use v0.15 wallets.


And some long term hopium from reddit

[cAPSLOCK]

^ Great post cAPSLOCK, thanks.

You can now pay Lightning invoices directly from https://xmr.to/
https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ho5ibv/xmrto_added_lightning_network_payments/

Well damn this is cool

I forgot, is there any work in progress for a “LN” type of network for Monero?

And cAPS, what makes you think running nodes will become more centralized than what Bitcoin already is? Or is that not what you’re saying?

Well I take a conservative stance in the blocksize debate.  I think full node centralization is a VERY STRONG net negative.  I think the end game in that scenario is you have to have a network pipe, storage space and computation resources that are really only currently owned by Governments and Google/Amazon size corporations.  Once any blockchain gets to this point it will become possible for the nodes to collude to reverse transactions etc.  And we have YEARS of proof it will happen.  Even with BTC, the most decentralized blockchain in existence, we came damn close with Binance just a little while back.  I am not sure if they could have done it...

Code:

[3:43:01 AM] Vitalik Buterin: ok can you guys stop trading
[3:43:05 AM] Tristan D’Agosta: Okay

Currently BSV is the existential leader in this camp design wise.  Not only do they cheer on node centralization, but they actually also imply if not right out say that they think censorship is a feature, not a bug.  I think BSV is a steaming pile of shit for other obvious reasons but the experiment of an unbounded block limit is at least valid.

But if we centralize the nodes, then we open an attack vector for censorship, and frankly the whole damn thing loses all it's value at that point.  No need to burn all this electricity, and continue to use a distributed database.

Well, Monero has an unbounded blocksize, theoretically.  And at the moment it is no big deal because the traffic on our chain is so small it does not really matter.  But if usage keeps going up (and I think it will) then eventually it will get harder to run (and sync!) a full node.  Monero ALREADY has way higher overhead in space as well as computational requirements.  When is the last time you synced a node from the bottom to the top?

But Monero, unlike BSV, is actually a cypherpunk project and the developers and community value decentralization.  Even the people buying drugs off the dark web do, whether they really know it or not.  And I think the hybrid blocksize technique we are using is VERY interesting... but it leaves the door open for a route to possible centralization.

So what happens when the storage space, bandwidth, and computational resources required to validate the XMR blockchain start to become prohibitive?

We need MORE fully validating nodes, not less.  Especially for Monero.

What do you folks think?  I know we have a fair share of big blockers and other apostates insofar as BTC maximalist doctrine goes among our numbers...  I would love to hear arguments that my reasoning is wrong.  And maybe I am just arrogant, but so far I have not been converted. 

I should listen to Articmine some more... I think he has some fairly strong opinions in this regard, and I don't think he is just a big-blocker nutcase.



P.S. - On a side note it sure is nice to see little XMR marching up a little... but is it gonna break out of it's everlasting rut?  It has tended to only do this while BTC is rangebound itself.  Once BTC moves violently in EITHER direction XMR tends to deflate rather quickly.  I would LOVE to see that trend ended.  Something DOES feel a little different this time...  What is up with the alts?