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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3255642 times)
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kurious
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July 11, 2019, 06:15:38 AM
 #41101

Any predictions from here?


I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.

Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.

Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%


Any thoughts?

Right now Bitcoin dominance is seemingly unstoppable.  The investment-grade money (it's not really all retail anymore) favours Bitcoin.  Massive hashing power security supporting their need for sleeping soundly, plus ease of purchase / disposal in massive markets that can offer real liquidity.

ATH against Bitcoin? Very small likelihood in the foreseeable future (2-3 years).... 10%? 
ATH USD?  Not yet, but after the great alt shakeout we are seeing?  Likely for a good coin with a privacy use case which Bitcoin does not (and may never) have - over 50% chance is reasonable in the next 2 years.

But right now?  Steel balls required; Bitcoin calls the shots. 

Dominance heading for 70%, maybe higher.  Shit's gonna hurt for alts until retail FOMO comes in and the alts get some money flowing in that feels it's 'too late' to buy Bitcoin. All SOMA - YMMV, DYOR....

Yup totally agree. 2 year out from ATH in fiat. Maybe no more ATH in BTC terms.

Never say never!  Anything could happen.  Right now it's tough... but this is a far from rational market and I still think Monero is as close to perfect private uncensorable money as you can get.

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July 11, 2019, 08:26:34 AM
 #41102

4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
I know not everybody care about BTC mining power consumption, but maybe if can get estimate and it will be something like 0.x% of BTC power requirement and on top of that better distributed network, that would be nice.

And I suspect RandomX on CPU's will consume less than BTC asic's combined.

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July 11, 2019, 09:03:09 AM
 #41103

When will RandomX become the new hashing algorithm?
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July 11, 2019, 11:01:43 AM
 #41104

When will RandomX become the new hashing algorithm?

October (conditional on the last audit successfully completing).

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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July 11, 2019, 02:28:03 PM
 #41105

Any predictions from here?

I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.
Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.
Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%

Any thoughts?

If you add a year more to those 2 years, I would say that % of chances are way higher then 20% and 60%.  USD one is close to 100%.

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July 11, 2019, 08:43:39 PM
 #41106

Poloniex adds fiat deposits and withdrawals - Monero included (XMR/USDC pair is available on Poloniex)!

https://twitter.com/Poloniex/status/1148664944130449415

coinbase has been blacklisted by the bitcoin community. :\

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July 11, 2019, 08:45:18 PM
 #41107

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

zSNARKS with TOR are already building on $ANC you n00bz ===>



https://freiexchange.com/market/ANC/BTC

#makebitcointalkgreatagain-_-*my posts are strictly for entertainment purposes only. It should not be regarded as investment/trading advice.*advocate to promote sharing and free software for the bitcoin community* #EFF #FSF ===> START WITH NOTHING AND BUILD IT INTO SOMETHING!
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July 12, 2019, 12:13:38 PM
 #41108

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely.  Grin

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July 12, 2019, 12:41:16 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #41109


All this talk of will xmr will ever “shake btc dominance” and trying to justify whether the xmr/btc price will ever moon brings back fond memories of early 2016.

All we need now is Hueristic to start dabbling in margin trading again and we are bound to rocket once again after another alphabay announcement Wink


Yeah, that and for Aminorex to come back and start posting more 'brilliance' regularly, LOL

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July 12, 2019, 01:30:20 PM
 #41110

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely.  Grin

It is 3. People and regulators will realize that safest wealth is the one that cant be seen and they will act accordingly and support it.

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July 12, 2019, 01:47:09 PM
 #41111

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely.  Grin

Not so much. Most of it could easily happen just due to narrative and speculation. People can always convince themselves that "actual usage" will come later.
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July 12, 2019, 02:24:47 PM
 #41112

Indeed, these are dark days for Monero and alts in general. Bitcoin maximalists are taking victory laps and high fiving each other. Our day shall come, soon......
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July 12, 2019, 02:39:15 PM
 #41113

Indeed, these are dark days for Monero and alts in general. Bitcoin maximalists are taking victory laps and high fiving each other. Our day shall come, soon......

Meh, that's only because they're stacks are worth more, they don't realize that is because the establishment is mapping them with their own stacks.

When that sinks in or they catch the repercussions from it they will see the value of Monero.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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July 12, 2019, 02:45:56 PM
 #41114

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely.  Grin

Not so much. Most of it could easily happen just due to narrative and speculation. People can always convince themselves that "actual usage" will come later.
Store of value counts as actual usage, n'est-ce pas?  A very volatile store, true.
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July 12, 2019, 03:31:38 PM
 #41115

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely.  Grin

Not so much. Most of it could easily happen just due to narrative and speculation. People can always convince themselves that "actual usage" will come later.
Store of value counts as actual usage, n'est-ce pas?  A very volatile store, true.

Store of value is a narrative too. Nobody really knows for sure whether or not these assets will retain value, its all based on belief and the story being convincing.
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July 12, 2019, 08:04:19 PM
 #41116

As is a banknote. A belief that the promise to pay bearer will be honoured


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.PLAY NOW.
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July 12, 2019, 08:16:25 PM
 #41117

As is a banknote. A belief that the promise to pay bearer will be honoured



I let a neighbor borrow 200 bucks once and he gave me a check. Later on when i stopped at his bank (Citizens) they tried to charge me 5 bucks to cash it! I was dumbfounded and told them that check was their word! They said if I had an account there would be no charge and I told her thats not the point, the point is I accepted the check as their word it was good and that i am not going to pay for the honor of giving an interest free loan to their customer. Eventually I opened an account deposited the check and left one dollar in the account so they can send me statements every month. Whats worse is the teller wouldn't open an account for me for the sole purpose of avoiding their fees so I had to call her manager over and the manager said open the account immediately and that went right up that tellers ass. Cheesy

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July 12, 2019, 08:53:59 PM
 #41118

Store of value is a narrative too. Nobody really knows for sure whether or not these assets will retain value, its all based on belief and the story being convincing.

You just described every financial asset out there. Tell me one asset which doesn't have its value based on belief and story. All of them has a story.

FIAT has value because USA tells us and they patriot the shit out of the countries which say otherwise. (Iraq, Iran, N. Korea, Libya...)

Gold has a story as well because it was being used as currency before papers started to dominate as we read from history books.

Bitcoin has its story too. (pretty strong one) It appeared right after the financial crisis in 2008 and it is a deflationary asset in the world of negative interest rates and constantly QE'd FIAT.

In all these, Monero also has a story. It is providing hardcore anonymity which is valuable as well.

The main problem here is, monero needs more of those story tellers who should convince people.




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July 12, 2019, 10:19:23 PM
 #41119

...

In all these, Monero also has a story. It is providing hardcore anonymity which is valuable as well.

The main problem here is, monero needs more of those story tellers who should convince people.

The problem is sheeple expect others to fight their battles for them. They provide lip service but when it comes to putting their money where their mouths are or putting their own ass on the line they are a bunch of little fucking girls with no balls. And they are afraid and thats why the Gov can spy on them the banks can steal thier assets and fiat and fagbook/google/etc can steal and sell their data and they take it up the ass like good little princesses.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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July 13, 2019, 04:59:00 PM
 #41120

Tell me one asset which doesn't have its value based on belief and story.

Food. You can eat it. Etc.

Oh wait, you said

Quote
You just described every financial asset out there

That is probably true. If it is an asset based on money or tied to money there is certainly going to be an aspect of resale (which depends on there being a buyer who believes the story) and/or future cash flows (which depend on the story coming to pass).

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