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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3255642 times)
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June 27, 2019, 03:56:47 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #41001

First of all I feel like I was a bit of a dick for picking on gemblitz.  He is undoubtedly a special sort of idiot, but there is no reason for me to treat him badly.  I apologize.


The other thing is... yes today was a bad day for Monero.  But in reality it is still performing better than most other alts right now.  For the day it is down very significantly.  And it's painful to see...  I am surprised it has gone this low.  But in the perspective of this week, month and year it is doing better than average compared to the field.

I see four scenarios:

1.  Bitcoin is all that matters in the crypto universe.  This would be the ultra maximalist view.  This is what Tone* is currently slinging I guess.  Alts will now die.  Now.  As in over the next 6-12 months they will shrivel to 1-10% of their current value vs BTC.  This includes Monero.  Bitcoin's coming privacy improvements (schnorr, taproot etc) will render it meaningless.

2. (Polar opposite to #1) We are in "Alt Capitulation".  Today we will have shaken out all the weak hands for alts in general.  This is 12/15/2018 for alts. And now, alts in masse will follow Bitcoins recent parabolic move, possibly even in contrast to a (much needed) BTC pullback from these local highs.  BTC may settle down, and even correct while alts take some spotlight and play catch up.  The sector will move as a whole.

3.  This is the time we separate the wheat from the chaff.  As BTC corrects and alts capitulate, only the alt projects with value will rise from the ashes as the garbage pile that is most alts fades slowly (or quickly) into obscurity. XMR is among these as the POW based blockchain with the leading privacy on the base layer.  Other notable alts will also survive (ETH, DCR, LTC? a few others?)

4.  Left Field. This would be a scenario that is basically like #2 or #3 but with a new contender (or maybe 2 or 3) coming in to take the spotlight from all the other alts.  GRIN maybe?  ETH 2.0? BSV (ha... hahaha ... hahahahaha)**.  Bitcoin keeps the main stage but a new contender rises up to challenge it.  "Traditional" alts fade as the new kids on the block soak up the spotlight.  


Personally, I think #3 is most likely with 1,2 and 4 following.

Likelihood in my opinion:

#3 50%
#1 25%
#2 20%
#4  5%

What do you guys think?



*Why has that guy become a bitcoin luminary personality?  That silly number system and all his horrendous calls.  I mean he isn't a terrible evangelist for bitcoin, but he isn't really any trading savant either... seriously overrated in my opinion and that has NOTHING to do with his recent attack in XMR which I have not seen.  And the association with the hyperwave idiot... seriously.  I suppose P.T. Barnum was right.


** Seriously if CSW pulls of the greatest scam in the history of the Earth (which means he is most likely the Antichrist) then I give up... I will just walk away.
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June 27, 2019, 04:09:29 AM
 #41002

Holding my XMR tight until the market values it correctly.

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June 27, 2019, 07:49:07 AM
 #41003

*Why has that guy become a bitcoin luminary personality?  That silly number system and all his horrendous calls.  I mean he isn't a terrible evangelist for bitcoin, but he isn't really any trading savant either... seriously overrated in my opinion and that has NOTHING to do with his recent attack in XMR which I have not seen.  And the association with the hyperwave idiot... seriously.  I suppose P.T. Barnum was right.


Failbitz is not worthy of your apology, just spreading hate for fun. Lets hope for karma.

Meanwhile * I don't get it either.

Followed a link to his vid, watched about 3 minutes. Total fail. Unfollowed immediately.

Him versus BCHboy Ver was an embarrassment, even for me only holding Monero.

Oh boy.



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June 27, 2019, 10:21:17 AM
 #41004



This looks very painful to watch. It is very clear where this is heading for.
How is pre-2017 time relevant? If you look at the chart since 2017 it doesn't look so pessimistic. I don't think 2015 and 2016 are relevant - at that time, the only users of Monero were dark web users and some small scale home miners.

By this logic ETH is going towards 0.005 as well ($60). Not a chance!

I might be trying to contort myself because I didn't catch a falling knife. But even looking from a distance I can't imagine XMR below 0.005 BTC.
You think it's realistically possible?

The next support is at somewhere around 0.006. If it gets breached, it is all empty till 0.003.

XMR jumped from 0.003 to 0.025 in 25 days in 2016.

0.006 is a critical number, If what I fear happens, you better prepare yourself. Hopefully none of you here are overinvested in XMR, right?

*I bought some back in the day from 0.017 and it isn't very pleasant for me to say these.

TA works. Whoever pumped this from 0.003 to 0.025 has the power to reverse the action in the same short time frame.




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June 27, 2019, 10:59:09 AM
 #41005

#2 - 75% - the law of big numbers catches up with BTC, with most people looking at the price and thinking that cannot be their ticket to wealth, so other coins become part of the lottery for them. We will see alts move up when regular folks come back. I think the current BTC rise has been result of institutions positioning themselves to take advantage of a new, better regulated market compared to 2017.
#1 - 10% - If my assumption that we are in the verge of FOMO is correct, then BTC shortcomings with regard to blocksize and high fees will rear their ugly head again. People will look for alternative ways to move money. Any privacy additions to Bitcoin at best put it in the optional privacy space, so it really cannot displace XMR in that regard. Only a future better privacy coin can. However, the bigger question is, do people care about privacy? I think the answer is that most people don't, until their lives get affected somehow by the lack of it. This unfortunately makes XMR a pure niche coin.
#3 - 10% - this has been ongoing, and when FOMO is back we will see crap start to float up again. I think this process runs in cycles, with new crap replacing old crap. Some crap like TRON has staying power likely due to shameless marketing.
#4 - 5% - can't see nothing except for possibly GRIN at the moment
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June 27, 2019, 11:49:33 AM
Last edit: June 27, 2019, 12:28:43 PM by Febo
 #41006

If someone can take time and check how much top altcoins lost against Bitcoin in last 3 months when BTC was $4k or last 2 weeks when bitcoin was $8k . I am sure Monero is holding best or is at least at the ones that lost least.  Maybe I will go make this list, but since know what will be results it would be so boring.

why polo delist bytecoin ? i mean it's not like it was the code they used to fork monero or anything Wink lel

I see Bytecoin still on Poloniex.  But eventually will get delisted. Is just a pump and dump coin without any other usecase. If I were you would stay away from it.


Anyway. Bitcoin went up yesterday for over 20% without any news. I dont think there used to be many such cases in past.

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June 27, 2019, 02:30:55 PM
 #41007

FYI so you aren't wasting your effort. You are irrelevant.


This user is currently ignored.


 Kiss

weeeee

Reminds me of me back in the day when I'm losing a lot trading alts.

Incoming FUD alert.  Tone Vays hating on XMR:

https://youtu.be/7YWNwra9T5k?t=1665

Some notable excerpts:

1) "Monero's privacy is useless."

2) "It's just the Venezuelan peso with privacy."

3) "Monero will never retain value."

4) "I am buying a new computer, even though this one is $3000 and just 2 years old. I abused the hell out of it."  Huh

I suggest that Comment 4 be carefully considered when assessing the credibility of Comments 1--3.

And about this, it almost feels like Vays started and did most of the sell down himself then proceeded to make that video.

He's a trader and I wouldn't rule him out holding some of the better alts in the space.

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June 27, 2019, 11:18:41 PM
 #41008

This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.
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June 28, 2019, 03:57:41 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2019, 04:33:51 AM by infofront
 #41009

First of all I feel like I was a bit of a dick for picking on gemblitz.  He is undoubtedly a special sort of idiot, but there is no reason for me to treat him badly.  I apologize.


The other thing is... yes today was a bad day for Monero.  But in reality it is still performing better than most other alts right now.  For the day it is down very significantly.  And it's painful to see...  I am surprised it has gone this low.  But in the perspective of this week, month and year it is doing better than average compared to the field.

I see four scenarios:

1.  Bitcoin is all that matters in the crypto universe.  This would be the ultra maximalist view.  This is what Tone* is currently slinging I guess.  Alts will now die.  Now.  As in over the next 6-12 months they will shrivel to 1-10% of their current value vs BTC.  This includes Monero.  Bitcoin's coming privacy improvements (schnorr, taproot etc) will render it meaningless.

2. (Polar opposite to #1) We are in "Alt Capitulation".  Today we will have shaken out all the weak hands for alts in general.  This is 12/15/2018 for alts. And now, alts in masse will follow Bitcoins recent parabolic move, possibly even in contrast to a (much needed) BTC pullback from these local highs.  BTC may settle down, and even correct while alts take some spotlight and play catch up.  The sector will move as a whole.

3.  This is the time we separate the wheat from the chaff.  As BTC corrects and alts capitulate, only the alt projects with value will rise from the ashes as the garbage pile that is most alts fades slowly (or quickly) into obscurity. XMR is among these as the POW based blockchain with the leading privacy on the base layer.  Other notable alts will also survive (ETH, DCR, LTC? a few others?)

4.  Left Field. This would be a scenario that is basically like #2 or #3 but with a new contender (or maybe 2 or 3) coming in to take the spotlight from all the other alts.  GRIN maybe?  ETH 2.0? BSV (ha... hahaha ... hahahahaha)**.  Bitcoin keeps the main stage but a new contender rises up to challenge it.  "Traditional" alts fade as the new kids on the block soak up the spotlight.  


Personally, I think #3 is most likely with 1,2 and 4 following.

Likelihood in my opinion:

#3 50%
#1 25%
#2 20%
#4  5%

What do you guys think?



*Why has that guy become a bitcoin luminary personality?  That silly number system and all his horrendous calls.  I mean he isn't a terrible evangelist for bitcoin, but he isn't really any trading savant either... seriously overrated in my opinion and that has NOTHING to do with his recent attack in XMR which I have not seen.  And the association with the hyperwave idiot... seriously.  I suppose P.T. Barnum was right.


** Seriously if CSW pulls of the greatest scam in the history of the Earth (which means he is most likely the Antichrist) then I give up... I will just walk away.

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

Also, as Brandt said (below), this might be like the dotcom bubble. We had a Cambrian explosion of tech stocks/shitcoins. The extinction event is taking place now. Everything will appear dead, but the strong will survive and prosper. Maybe they'll re-emerge in 2020-21 as people look to offload some BTC profits, regulatory clarity finally occurs, maybe some good altcoin custodial solutions emerge (bakkt?), and people become more educated about altcoins (thanks in part to libra).

So, I'm thinking a combination of 1 and 3, but if I have to vote discretely:
1. 30%
2. 25%
3. 25% - Smart money coming into the sector may be able to discern the high quality coins. However, it's taken them 10 years just to seriously look at Bitcoin. I suppose bitcoin could just be the gateway drug
4. 20%  LIBRA - has the potential to absolutely annihilate most other altcoins

Some other popular analysts have chimed in on this:






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June 28, 2019, 02:17:43 PM
 #41010

As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows. Considering last 2 cycles it is way to early. But we might just have 2 bull runs same as in 2013. That way one might start soon.  But of course Monero can do something on its own.

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SixFigures
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June 28, 2019, 02:28:18 PM
 #41011

There is one issue though compared to years ago: we have a lot of stable coins, so people might choose to rather park their money in a stable coin when they think bitcoin might stagnate. I do agree though that still some of the money will go into alts.

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THE JOB DONE

 

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in
 

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BuHoBeH
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June 28, 2019, 06:36:50 PM
 #41012

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

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Febo
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June 28, 2019, 08:34:07 PM
 #41013

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

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June 28, 2019, 08:57:56 PM
 #41014

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

Can't we just count Konferenco as $100 party and move on?
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June 28, 2019, 09:25:44 PM
 #41015

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

All jokes aside, it is very concerning how low the bitcoin ratio dropped on Monero.  I thought I was getting a good deal at .011 BTC.  I'm going to hold like always but I'm less confident on the recovery this time around.


Also why do people refer to crypto coins as he/him.  Should be,"why did it drop so much in value" not he....
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June 29, 2019, 07:55:15 AM
 #41016

Decoded message from outer space: 

Quote from: that guy
As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows.

The retail investors never came back into the stock market after they got fleeced in 2008. The supply of greater fools is not unlimited. The boomers are getting old and more financially conservative. The Millennials do not have any money.

This turn up for BTC appears to be institutions taking over, as they replace the shitcoins with Facebook’s Libra and then prepare to back Libra with Bitcoin after the Core riff-raff are fleeced with the SegWit donations (c.f. also the BCTalk thread).
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June 29, 2019, 11:14:48 AM
 #41017

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

All jokes aside, it is very concerning how low the bitcoin ratio dropped on Monero.  I thought I was getting a good deal at .011 BTC.  I'm going to hold like always but I'm less confident on the recovery this time around.


Also why do people refer to crypto coins as he/him.  Should be,"why did it drop so much in value" not he....

Basically all alts got slaughtered though. Monero did not really underperform in Bitcoin terms relative to other altcoins.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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June 29, 2019, 11:41:44 AM
 #41018

Decoded message from outer space:  

Quote from: that guy
As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows.

The retail investors never came back into the stock market after they got fleeced in 2008. The supply of greater fools is not unlimited. The boomers are getting old and more financially conservative. The Millennials do not have any money.

This turn up for BTC appears to be institutions taking over, as they replace the shitcoins with Facebook’s Libra and then prepare to back Libra with Bitcoin after the Core riff-raff are fleeced with the SegWit donations (c.f. also the BCTalk thread).

Libra replacing shitcoins is an amusing narrative. Bitcoin maximalists hate altcoins so much they are trying to meme this into existence. Funny how quick they abandon their cypherpunk ideals when the price is going up. They'll take Evil-corps dystopian coin over any legitimate free market competition to their bags.

When do you think they will figure out that a stable coin will never replace altcoin gambling? Price go up is the game. Price go sideways is never going to replace price go up. Furthermore, do they ever wonder why the "better" stable coins such as GUSD haven't replaced tether? Pull at that thread and you'll realize that no only will facebook coin not replace alt-coins, but it won't even replace tether.  The market will eventually figure this out, but the memes are slow and the herd is dumb. Bitcoin maximalists are incorrigible.
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June 29, 2019, 12:01:43 PM
 #41019

This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.

It won't matter for most of us if it's still down vs BTC, cos most of us bought XMR with BTC.  I'm actually down a lot tbh.  It would've been way better for me if I just held BTC.

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June 29, 2019, 12:05:11 PM
 #41020

Had a lot more BTC equivalent at the top its true, but I wouldn't say better off the few hundred dollar BTC were well invested here.

Please do something though. No hype for XMR just assumption.


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