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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3207554 times)
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July 04, 2019, 12:15:38 PM
 #41061

MoneroKon 2019 - Tari: Advancing Monero Through Ecosystem Development - by Riccardo 'fluffypony' Spagni

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmeSSnppixY

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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July 04, 2019, 01:34:39 PM
 #41062

MoneroKon 2019 - Tari: Advancing Monero Through Ecosystem Development - by Riccardo 'fluffypony' Spagni

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmeSSnppixY

https://dashnews.org/monero-dev-fluffypony-imitates-dash-masternodes-with-tari-project/

Learn from the past, set detailed and vivid goals for the future and live in the only moment of time over which you have any control : now
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July 04, 2019, 01:38:42 PM
 #41063

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

With Info on this one. Pseudonymity is a pill regulated markets will swallow. True anonymity, in contrast, will be spat up.

Capitulation?

More like Tone Vays sold every XMR he had and made a video about how hates it, etc ,etc...  Just a hunch.  He's a trader and he prolly buys and sells alts to make BTC just like most of us.

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July 04, 2019, 03:20:53 PM
 #41064

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey... Undecided

I don't trust a thing I see on that exchange anymore, I think its all smoke and mirrors using stolen coins to destroy Moneros value. It's completely controlled by institutional bankers with Zero accountability.

NO-one Should have coins on that exchange.

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July 04, 2019, 03:41:32 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (10), kurious (2), Hueristic (1), infofront (1), Kryptowerk (1), Bitcoinaire (1)
 #41065

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey... Undecided
It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery Cheesy

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July 04, 2019, 04:25:59 PM
 #41066

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey... Undecided
It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery Cheesy

Thanks for sharing. We are generally on the same page here.
I am curious though, how do are your thoughts on Mimblewimble, the first implementations (most importantly GRIN) and the chance, that MW might get implemented on Bitcoin. <- Definitly high hurdles for that happening, but assuming it will happen, how do you see XMR - does it still have a usecase?
Thinking about filling my bags of XMR, too. Just curious on what a self-proclaimed XMR whale has to say to the "threat" of other real-privacy/fungibility cryptos emerging. Smiley

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July 04, 2019, 04:35:53 PM
 #41067

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

Interesting. I had a sneaky suspicion those 300 BTC between 0.01 and 0.009 were yours?

Well, good luck.
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July 04, 2019, 05:18:35 PM
Merited by Kryptowerk (2), infofront (1), pa (1)
 #41068

Thanks for sharing. We are generally on the same page here.
I am curious though, how do are your thoughts on Mimblewimble, the first implementations (most importantly GRIN) and the chance, that MW might get implemented on Bitcoin. <- Definitly high hurdles for that happening, but assuming it will happen, how do you see XMR - does it still have a usecase?
Thinking about filling my bags of XMR, too. Just curious on what a self-proclaimed XMR whale has to say to the "threat" of other real-privacy/fungibility cryptos emerging. Smiley
This is a long term perspective and irrelevant in short to medium term. My trades are usually medium term (e.g few months to a year). Admittedly I've not studied the Mimblewimble technology in great detail, but from what I have read it doesn't excite me all that much. Interactive payments (needing to be online) is pretty inconvenient, but the emission curve for GRIN is ridiculous and gets insta ignore from me for probably a few years. Similar to zcash, which I also put on automatic ignore for many years. It simply means there is no urgency for me to look into it.

I think the zcash technology (especially considering the new possibilities of removing trusted setup) is far more exciting and a more serious competitor. Not sure about zcash itself (dev rewards, not fair etc), but fluffy mentioned the possibility of monero adapting the technology in the future which goes to show that it's promising.

As for bitcoin implementing it? I have doubt it will happen on the base layer. More likely it can happen on a sidechain. But this is probably still years (?) away. They still haven't made sidechains trust-less. Liquid is federated, people don't want that (or shouldn't want that). So that needs to happen first and that will require a fork. It's just not happening anytime soon.

But let's imagine that it does happen and we get sidechain on bitcoin with whatever the very best privacy tech is? Is this game over for monero? Well, there's still an argument that can be made that having ALL transactions fungible is worth something. Moving funds into a black hole sidechain on bitcoin and back in itself can cause suspicion and/or become illegal, considered a form of money laundering etc. It's preferable to have the fungibility built in on the base layer. What COULD happen is that the sidechain becomes "the bitcoin" (what everyone uses) and practically nobody will use the original bitcoin chain anymore. That's far more interesting and could be some real competition. 

Realistically though, Monero will have many years left before this becomes an actual concern, and the first mover advantage will keep improving in the meantime. To be honest I am rooting for bitcoin to accomplish privacy, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm a speculator. I prefer to not get emotionally attached to my investments. So if I see the writing on the wall, I will act on it. I recognize that I am no future teller and can be wrong. It's likely I'll always keep at minimum a small hedge in monero, as I have had since the start. What I am talking about here though, is a nice entry, when everybody wants monero again, I'm getting the hell out.

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July 04, 2019, 05:35:35 PM
 #41069

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey... Undecided
It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery Cheesy

WTG, wish I had m0ar to send you but I'll remedy that shortly. Nice seeing you post. Smiley

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July 04, 2019, 05:42:54 PM
 #41070

Thanks for sharing. We are generally on the same page here.
I am curious though, how do are your thoughts on Mimblewimble, the first implementations (most importantly GRIN) and the chance, that MW might get implemented on Bitcoin. <- Definitly high hurdles for that happening, but assuming it will happen, how do you see XMR - does it still have a usecase?
Thinking about filling my bags of XMR, too. Just curious on what a self-proclaimed XMR whale has to say to the "threat" of other real-privacy/fungibility cryptos emerging. Smiley
This is a long term perspective and irrelevant in short to medium term. My trades are usually medium term (e.g few months to a year). Admittedly I've not studied the Mimblewimble technology in great detail, but from what I have read it doesn't excite me all that much. Interactive payments (needing to be online) is pretty inconvenient, but the emission curve for GRIN is ridiculous and gets insta ignore from me for probably a few years. Similar to zcash, which I also put on automatic ignore for many years. It simply means there is no urgency for me to look into it.

I hear you, I'm quite surprised it has held as long as it has. there are some serious whales propping that shit up and the dump is going to be epic and then it will be a nice long hold. Well thats as long as they can get the chain to transact again, funny they didn't set the version checking well enough and development outran their protocol so fast they killed their own eco system. A good sign I guess as it really does prove the Dev support is there for the long haul. I was thinking 1 and a half to 2 years before grabbing any but now I'm thinking possibly only 1. It's interesting to watch and do me a favor, PM me when you think entry is imminent. I value your opinion. Wink

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July 05, 2019, 02:18:01 PM
 #41071

I just looked on monero.how and saw that minimum fee is $0.0027.  It is funny how things change if you work hard to change them.  Monero become easy to set up and use. Monero fees become microscopic. Monero blockchain become small ( under 25 gb) and can be synced in few hours. Monero emission inflation is going under Bitcoins and soon after under Golds mining inflation.   I wonder how long it will take for most people in crypto and this forum to realize this.   

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July 05, 2019, 05:13:57 PM
 #41072

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey... Undecided
It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery Cheesy

Well said TK2
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July 06, 2019, 01:17:48 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #41073

At current price daily mined 1873 XMR are worth $182k. Also today over:

$20m BTC was mined

$1.7m LTC was mined

$730k ZCash was mined

Can you imagine that 20% of that is almost more then what all Monero miners get. Electronic Cash Company can dump daily almost as much as all Monero miners.

Dont you guys see some anomaly here?

.BitDice.               ▄▄███▄▄
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Febo
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July 06, 2019, 07:35:18 PM
 #41074

It is amazing how many times I listened to this interview of Milton Friedman and believing he was predicting Bitcoin.  Only today I was pointed to the fact that he was talking of Monero back then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MnQJFEVY7s

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[/]
Chicken_76
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July 06, 2019, 08:59:09 PM
 #41075

I don't trust a thing I see on that exchange anymore, I think its all smoke and mirrors using stolen coins to destroy Moneros value. It's completely controlled by institutional bankers with Zero accountability.

NO-one Should have coins on that exchange.

Which exchanges would you recommend?
nanaimogold
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July 06, 2019, 10:24:07 PM
 #41076

Self-moderated thread for discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

Off topic posts will be removed. Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.

Non-substantive comments such as Monero sucks, Monero is a scam, Monero is great, Monero to the moon, etc. are considered off topic. Every post and reply should add to the discussion. The preceding sentence forbids repetitive exchanges on the same topic without some topical context.

Hostile trolling (which includes but is not limited to use of "meme" pictures to attack or demean) especially by sock puppet accounts is not allowed.

When quoting posts, please remove any large charts or other images unless the quoted post is at least one page old. Please shrink (or remove) large images in replies in all cases.

When I am speaking as the moderator, and only then, I will write in red. Other messages using red text are not permitted.

People speculating on Monero may also be interested in the MoneroMarkets subreddit (unaffiliated)

Monero is one of the old coins that has a strong psychological stronghold on the minds of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. It offers the least technology as at today's rankings but it has more trade volume and acceptance than the rest and even predicted to go as high as $3000 by 2021

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July 07, 2019, 03:37:07 AM
 #41077

I don't trust a thing I see on that exchange anymore, I think its all smoke and mirrors using stolen coins to destroy Moneros value. It's completely controlled by institutional bankers with Zero accountability.

NO-one Should have coins on that exchange.

Which exchanges would you recommend?
A lot of exchanges which we can see from coinmarketcap but I think binance is the best as its fee is low and it provides high security and give attention to its users fund, they take fast step to give solution.


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tokeweed
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July 07, 2019, 01:28:57 PM
 #41078

This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.

It won't matter for most of us if it's still down vs BTC, cos most of us bought XMR with BTC.  I'm actually down a lot tbh.  It would've been way better for me if I just held BTC.

So you're saying if Monero hit $10k USD it wouldn't matter because you would've made more by staying in BTC? By that logic you will never be satisfied with your investments, because there will always be something you could've done to gain more profit.

Look, I'm not hating on XMR or anything, I think it's the most awesome alt out there.  But buying, say 5 BTC worth of XMR, and looking at it now and it's like now worth 2 BTC really hurts.

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July 07, 2019, 02:26:05 PM
 #41079

In the last days I am starting to consider that I should invest in monero.
The main reasons are :
1. Libra centralized shitcoin
2. FATF hard on for regulation in crypto space.

This very likely could force people to use Monero.

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July 07, 2019, 04:50:50 PM
 #41080

Well it does look like TheKoziTwo was well placed for a bargain.  He obviously has two of something steel... Respect is due and totally deserved of course.

I was wondering how far it could drop (and yes it did hurt to just watch it slide) but the bottom looks in, I didn't quite catch it, but I did pick some up  in the high .007x range after it bounced convincingly.

Now it's looking pretty healthy with a decent rise and volume strong.  

Of course the great thing with Monero is it may be late to the party sometimes, but when it does turn up, it's a star.  In the last Bitcoin bull run it was rising against BTC as it rose and it acting as a trebuchet, as some may recall.

I have hodled, Monero has been so good to me but it's been a long wait.

Now I am thinking:  

Hit me baby one more time...

我想要火箭和火车
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