[XMR] Monero Speculation

[tokeweed]

I’m just wondering...  If XMR is really starting another trend up, does that mean that the supposed naked short thingy done by the exchanges to keep the price down isn’t true then?  Lol.

Not that I’m thinking it is true but just curious what you guys think.  And I don’t think XMR would’ve trended up from under 30 bucks to over 200 bucks if that was the case.  I think there’s just not much interest in Montero these days...  Until they find out they really needed it.    Maybe in a couple more years or so.  De Rose predicted it to be around now but no.  We’ll see...

[Hueristic]

I’m just wondering...  If XMR is really starting another trend up, does that mean that the supposed naked short thingy done by the exchanges to keep the price down isn’t true then?  Lol.

Not that I’m thinking it is true but just curious what you guys think.  And I don’t think XMR would’ve trended up from under 30 bucks to over 200 bucks if that was the case.  I think there’s just not much interest in Montero these days...  Until they find out they really needed it.    Maybe in a couple more years or so.  De Rose predicted it to be around now but no.  We’ll see...

https://messari.io/asset/monero/markets

[cAPSLOCK]

Kinda looking like just more of the same...



I feel like we would either need extraordinary positive pressure specifically for Monero, or a bullish tailwind for the whole crypto sector.  And neither of those is here.  So back down to 4 we go?

Or am I just moaning?

[Hueristic]

Kinda looking like just more of the same...



I feel like we would either need extraordinary positive pressure specifically for Monero, or a bullish tailwind for the whole crypto sector.  And neither of those is here.  So back down to 4 we go?

Or am I just moaning?

Yeah, I think some entity was just trying to paint some false hope before doing a rug pull.

I think TPTB have decided to throw fiat away on the market side of their attacks.

Only the Diamond hands are going to survive this ride.

If you can't beat them then buy them.

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 26) IS OUT NOW! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-26-37c1c76bafe8

[DonYo]

Selling at this prices has no point, 1/10 BTC price shoud be a fair price for today imho

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-xmr.html#1y

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 27) IS OUT NOW! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-27-bb8931e88e74

[tokeweed]

Kinda looking like just more of the same...



I feel like we would either need extraordinary positive pressure specifically for Monero, or a bullish tailwind for the whole crypto sector.  And neither of those is here.  So back down to 4 we go?

Or am I just moaning?

Yeah, I think some entity was just trying to paint some false hope before doing a rug pull.

I think TPTB have decided to throw fiat away on the market side of their attacks.

Only the Diamond hands are going to survive this ride.

If you can't beat them then buy them.

I don’t think TPTB or whoever care that much about XMR anymore.  They’re prolly saying:  ‘Us again?  Don’t flatter yourselves kids.’.  Lol.  And they have a lot on their plate.  I’ve been reading up on DeFi and decentralized mixing and all that stuff.  It looks like a hacker or some guy could swap his loot from DeFi market to market then mix it in something like Tornado Cash then boom.  Done.

And here’s the thing, all the liquidity is shoveled in there.  It’s where the money is!  Oh how I wish I didn’t get so complacent and really went balls deep into new stuff like I used to.

[cAPSLOCK]

OK!

So many times, we have been here.  XMR/USD at strong (and critical) support:


Same sort of thing in XMR/BTC:


It would be fairly sad to see the price breaking either of these, and devastating if we lost both...  That seems EXTREMELY unlikely.  So for the first time in ages, I am a buyer.

Alright then.  It is difficult not to take profits on this here, since I (humble-brag) basically bought the bottom.

But I think depending on what the corn does we might still have some legs here.

Transactions are not really up over the last year...  i suppose if you smooth out the graph you'd see an upward bias, but we are pretty close to Jan 21 levels.  Still Monero is being used.  Quite a bit.

EDIT (TO SAVE THE DRACONIAN MODBOT THE NEED TO COMBINE POSTS)

1/13 19:11 UTC


Woof... that's a healthy looking upswing.  Like so many of these Monero jumps, I can't see where it's coming from.  The volume on the major exchanges is pretty thin, but the bids are moving up distinctly.



I seriously do not think a couple measly 2k buys does this.  I can only assume a certain exchange (Bisq?) is seeing heavy traffic, and the bids move up passively on the KYC exchanges in concert, or as sellers buy lots to sell wherever the actual action is happening.

Anyone know?

Now, of course this kind of move is usually a flash in the pan, and then the prices settles back down to where it started.,  But this move so close to the heels of the last one is at least somewhat encouraging.

OK.  Looked at Binance.  We are seeing a LOT of 2-4k hourly candles... Pretty frisky market there...  Hmm...  

News?  Rumors?  Big ass drug deal going down? lol.

[Febo]

News?  Rumors?  Big ass drug deal going down? lol.

I have no ideas. I only know this was published today explaining Seraphis.  https://localmonero.co/knowledge/seraphis-for-monero  Maybe some thought is not possible and needed such confirment. Diego is Sarang Noether's manager.

Maybe reason is that was few days listed and soon after delisted Cake wallet on Chinese apple store. LOL   Oh also one private investigator that is specialised in finding missing persons now accepts Monero.  Maybe there is such need for his services.

Cute picture from user aFungible on r/monero subreddit

[cAPSLOCK]

News?  Rumors?  Big ass drug deal going down? lol.

I have no ideas. I only know this was published today explaining Seraphis.  https://localmonero.co/knowledge/seraphis-for-monero  Maybe some thought is not possible and needed such confirment. Diego is Sarang Noether's manager.

Maybe reason is that was few days listed and soon after delisted Cake wallet on Chinese apple store. LOL   Oh also one private investigator that is specialised in finding missing persons now accepts Monero.  Maybe there is such need for his services.

Cute picture from user aFungible on r/monero subreddit

Good stuff.

There was also a rumor post on reddit about Ray Dalio saying this or that about montango...  But I think it got pulled let me see:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/s34f2g/a_friend_of_a_friend_works_for_an_investment/

Anyway.. i doubt there was actual substance... it was most likely BS, but hopefully not the main reason for our rise...

[Diamond Rolex]

the legacy proof of work coins did nothing this bull cycle. xmr, litecoin, bch, all terrible performance, dont go anywhere near these legacy coins if you actually care about making money.

monero is great for privacy if you wanna do some hidden transactions but never store your economic energy in xmr, its a terrible store of value!

bitcoin and ethereum did over 3x from the previous highs during the 2017-2018 peak. Accounting for usd inflation monero never even broke its previous all time high from the last cycle.

And since we have entered a bear market monero is gonna go below $50.

[cAPSLOCK]

the legacy proof of work coins did nothing this bull cycle. xmr, litecoin, bch, all terrible performance, dont go anywhere near these legacy coins if you actually care about making money.

monero is great for privacy if you wanna do some hidden transactions but never store your economic energy in xmr, its a terrible store of value!

bitcoin and ethereum did over 3x from the previous highs during the 2017-2018 peak. Accounting for usd inflation monero never even broke its previous all time high from the last cycle.

And since we have entered a bear market monero is gonna go below $50.

I disagree with most of this.

Monero made a new USD all time high in 2021.

But the real issue here is the concept of "this cycle" and that we are now entering a bear.  Only time will tell, of course, but this narrative is building a lot of strength in the bitcoin circles and I think it might just be the way most people end up being wrong. Because based on this idea the best move would be to sell ASAP and buy back at ~$50 right?  Is that what you are doing?

I think we are facing a significant chance that Bitcoin (and the legacy POW coins as you put it) could surprise us with another upswing and create three peaks in this "cycle" before thje next halving.  In fact, I think we could see it continue to do this movement INTO the "next cycle".

I think it is possible many people will have to buy back in at a higher price because they are basing their expectations that Bitcoin will act as it has for the last 3 "cycles".  When in fact it is already doing something we have not seen before with this weird continuing higher high and higher low setup.  This is the weirdest dead cat bounce otherwise.  Possible, of course.

It certainly could go on down and lose more value and stay low until when we would expect the next bull run to start into the next halving...

But seriously.  If it were that predictable wouldn't everyone be playing exactly those realities, and wouldn't that change the landscape completely?  Markets do not like to do what people expect because they are driven by people changing their strategies based on exactly that information.  With countries and large cities opening beginning to store reserves in BTC, allowing international trade in BTC etc, I do not see us continuing the follow the same pattern.

What would the charts look like if we were on the leading edge of "hyperbitcoinization"?

Well they could look exactly like this.

And as you point out monero's core value has not changed at all but to have strengthened.

The following chart is one possibility in the hyper bullish realm...  Not saying it happens.  But something to consider.

[cAPSLOCK]

This how I am speculating...

[2022-01-16 21:27:34.222]  net      new job from 127.0.0.1:18081 diff 406G algo rx/0 height 2538945 (20 tx)
[2022-01-16 21:24:01.441]  miner    speed 10s/60s/15m 13714.4 13718.6 13947.2 H/s max 14929.1 H/s

[kurious]

the legacy proof of work coins did nothing this bull cycle. xmr, litecoin, bch, all terrible performance, dont go anywhere near these legacy coins if you actually care about making money.

monero is great for privacy if you wanna do some hidden transactions but never store your economic energy in xmr, its a terrible store of value!

bitcoin and ethereum did over 3x from the previous highs during the 2017-2018 peak. Accounting for usd inflation monero never even broke its previous all time high from the last cycle.

And since we have entered a bear market monero is gonna go below $50.

I will try to be polite, but like cAPSLOCK I totally disagree.  
Personally Monero has been the best investment I ever made after Bitcoin and a fair amount of the Bitcoin I acquired have been from profit taking on Monero's peaks.  This may not be the case for everyone, of course - but 'storing my economic energy' in it has proved to be very rewarding.

As to a $50 Monero?  Er.. not anytime soon IMO.  It was way under that level ($26) as recently as 2020, but that only proves that today's price is hardly disappointing.  On the contrary, Monero is currently acting bullish and a 75%-plus collapse is unlikely in any near timeframe.

Since you seem very confident, may I ask within what amount of time do you expect Monero to be under $50?


Monero looking a little overbought if anything just now.

Don't worry if it takes a breather to cool off the RSI - personally I am buying any dip.  A golden cross is on the cards for February (for those that believe in them, as I do) so I hope to see decent strength in price against both BTC and USD between now and at least the end of February.

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 28) IS OUT NOW! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-28-307de4b1db15

[tokeweed]

the legacy proof of work coins did nothing this bull cycle. xmr, litecoin, bch, all terrible performance, dont go anywhere near these legacy coins if you actually care about making money.

monero is great for privacy if you wanna do some hidden transactions but never store your economic energy in xmr, its a terrible store of value!

bitcoin and ethereum did over 3x from the previous highs during the 2017-2018 peak. Accounting for usd inflation monero never even broke its previous all time high from the last cycle.

And since we have entered a bear market monero is gonna go below $50.

I will try to be polite, but like cAPSLOCK I totally disagree.  
Personally Monero has been the best investment I ever made after Bitcoin and a fair amount of the Bitcoin I acquired have been from profit taking on Monero's peaks.  This may not be the case for everyone, of course - but 'storing my economic energy' in it has proved to be very rewarding.

As to a $50 Monero?  Er.. not anytime soon IMO.  It was way under that level ($26) as recently as 2020, but that only proves that today's price is hardly disappointing.  On the contrary, Monero is currently acting bullish and a 75%-plus collapse is unlikely in any near timeframe.

Since you seem very confident, may I ask within what amount of time do you expect Monero to be under $50?

But relative to the market, Monero actually is very disappointing.  If you’re an XMR maxi and everything you have is in XMR, I don’t think you’ve out performed the market that much and that’s if you’ve even out performed the market.  I mean sure ‘the market’ has new coins being listed during the bullish phases and their all pumped to bloated market shares.  Use XMR/BTC as the core basis then.  It’s really an ugly chart for the XMR holder tbh.

[Diamond Rolex]

Over this year we will see bitcoin do a 80% drop which happens every cycle. People continue to post "this time is different" , heard that meme too many times in the past.

Elon musk already bought, NFTs selling for absurd prices. El Salvador bought.  Is there another worlds richest guy that can buy next?

People are coping, we are in a bear market, btc will go under 15k, ethereum under 500. I've seen this same thing happen before, yah this cycle had a 2nd bull trap but we are in bear season now.

Also amount of transactions doesn't mean the value actually go up. Bitcoin transitioned from peer to peer cash to a store of value.

To the guy that said monero made a new all time high this cycle, ya it did in usd number but the actual value all time high is less when you count all the fiat inflation. The XMR/BTC chart from 2017 till now looks absolutely horrific.

And i hold a fair amount of monero for what it stands for, but reality is that is not a good investment compared to bitcoin and ethereum.

[tokeweed]

^  I’m with you, whoever you are.  I mean let’s be honest.  Just go to the WO thread, go to CT.  People are def coping and I gotta say, it used to annoy the hell out of me.  Lol.   But now not so much.  We have to understand that it takes a while for some people to start being honest with themselves and become more self aware.  But they could also really be selling their bags while trying to make everybody bullish.  Hilarious.  Lmao.  But I guess I could respect that than the people who lie to themselves.

[cAPSLOCK]

I think one of the very worst arguments a person can makes goes like this:

I believe X, but they believe Y therefore they are stupid and I will laugh at them.

The reason it's bad in particular is it not even an argument.  It is just a judgement on people who see things differently.

I am in the camp (to an extent) that you are making fun of and belittling.  I believe this time *IS* different (nuance: I believe every time has been different).  But I also have a LOT of nuance in my beliefs.  If you read what I have posted you would see I have made arguments against S2F for example.

I have publicly said that I think another 80%+ pullback is EXTREMELY unlikely. (Nuance: I accept the reality that I might be wrong and we will see bitcoin go to ~13500). Because this time *IS* different.  The difference is we have a growing number of people who see Bitcoin is a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they will be there to buy it as it goes lower.  They are going to create a floor that is more difficult to breech than past cycles. To go to 13k we will have to cross 30k first.  Nuance: dropping below 30k is a VERY REAL possibility, as it is the next real area of support.

There are billionaires who feel like they missed the best opportunity of a lifetime, and if presented even half of a second chance they will come in.  

I think there just are so few paths that lead to <15k.  Where in the past there was very little to stop an 80-90% pullback.

Another argument that supports that view is we have not increased the amount that we did in past "cycles".  In the past a 90% drop literally followed a 1000x rise.  If you are still counting in "cycles" then you will notice that this was only a 3x rise. so why wouldn't we have a bear that matches? Nuance: or that this bull is actually not over!

I still think the most likely possibility is we see the highs and lows continue to tighten up as we steadily rise.  It takes a LOT more money to move Bitcoin because it represents SO much money now.  Likewise it takes greater effort to drop it as well.

I will also joke about hopium as I express my ideas because I know that I am not a fortune teller and I do not know the future.  There is a non-zero chance that Bitcoin has reached the highest relative value it ever will, and it's all down from here.  Nuance: I think this is particularly unlikely.

Also I have no need to "cope" about anything.  I have been in Bitcoin since 2011.  And I have, for the most part, NEVER SOLD.  The main reason for this is I am just not a trader.  If I were I might be much more wealthy, but it is more likely I would have less than I have now.  Nuance: I have nothing to cope with here because I have accepted 80+% drops as a significant possibility for over a decade and even survived a few of them.

Monero is the only other coin I hold.  And it is a slave to bitcoin.  The chances of it flipping bitcoin as are the generally popular narratives out there are fairly outlandish in my opinion.  Nuance: I am not belittling those with whom I disagree about this.  But I continue to hold some value in Monero because I believe it is extremely undervalued, and in time will be worth much more.

To clarify my position, I do not think we go down tons more.. I think it is MOST likely we drop to ~30k at the furthest, and resume a gentle upward grind after that...  But I also see significant possibilities that we breach 30k, or that we get an explosive upswing that resumes the bull portion of this "cycle".  Nuance: I just give each of those scenarios less weight than the first one.

So, we might be in for a long Bitcoin winter where we go under 15k.  Or not.  My money will stay exactly where it is in either case... AND I congratulate those with the balls and foresight to sell close to the top of this bull.  Sometimes I wish I was wired that way, but I am not.  And from my vantage point it has worked out fairly fucking well for me in spite of that.