[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

I'm so disappointed. This has been one of my favorite coins for years, and everytime I buy it because it seems relatively low compared to the rest of the market.

I mean it makes sense, it's anonymous and known for its use on the darknet, so Legitimate businesses and many exchanges want nothing to do with it. But it's just such a good coin, it's like what Bitcoin tried to be. Perfect for sending money/value without anyone knowing, not the crazy halvenings and fees are doable. Is there some kind of segwit for monero by the way? Or would that ruin privacy?

I figure you MIGHT be asking about a way to implement HTLC type of layer two?  There are no projects that I know of outside of the vapor phase.

That said, Monero DOES take a different approach to the block size problem.  So it may evolve differently when it comes to scaling.

[cAPSLOCK]

When I started following the project 2 years later, I was also interested in it, just like ZEC. Both are mined and both are aimed at anonymity. 

Everyone and his brother can track and trace ZEC transactions now:
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2020/06/30/elliptic-follows-chainalysis-in-adding-zcash-to-monitoring-platform/

“We are helping regulated businesses look at transactions on the blockchain and completely support people’s rights to financial privacy,” said Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s chief scientist. “If funds are seen to come from a shielded address, that might then trigger some additional compliance processes.”

“One of the core differences between us and Chainalysis is that they are really focused on law enforcement and so they will have customers who are asking them to de-anonymize the likes of Monero,” said Robinson. “We provide transaction screening tools for exchanges and don’t plan to offer our functionality on something like Monero where everything is private by default.”

Wow. Wow.  Wow.

ZCash just lost the single whisp of an idea of a shadow of a reasonable chance for a reason to exist at all.

At this point there are EXACTLY ZERO reasons for it to exist (which was already 99.9% true frankly) aside from paying for "Zooko"'s groceries.  I can only hope that he gets changed with securities fraud someday, as he should.

We are helping regulated businesses look at transactions on the blockchain and completely support people’s rights to financial privacy

said Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s chief scientist.

LOL.

[cAPSLOCK]

OK!

So many times, we have been here.  XMR/USD at strong (and critical) support:


Same sort of thing in XMR/BTC:


It would be fairly sad to see the price breaking either of these, and devastating if we lost both...  That seems EXTREMELY unlikely.  So for the first time in ages, I am a buyer.

[Hueristic]

Ahh, to have ammo left.

That is the only issue with just holding is you never really have the spare fiat to buy.

[dragonvslinux]

Same sort of thing in XMR/BTC:


It would be fairly sad to see the price breaking either of these, and devastating if we lost both...  That seems EXTREMELY unlikely.  So for the first time in ages, I am a buyer.

I feel like I'm looking at a different chart than you. This is the 1 month chart. It looks like trying to catch and falling knife, especially given 2021 has been a crypto bull market.



Making a new local low will be devastating for price, and personally I'm surprised as well there hasn't been a bounce from current prices, but it is what it is it seems. Personally I still think FED are scooping up a lot of these coins from dark-web busts, where a lot of liquidity is, then dumping for USD or even BTC. Monero still has enough use case, so it's surprising to see it down for the year.

In fairness we've also seen this in the BTC price of Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and others that were popular 2017 coins. If price bounces back to that long-term resistance trend-line, I'll be reducing exposure that's for sure.

[cAPSLOCK]

Same sort of thing in XMR/BTC:


It would be fairly sad to see the price breaking either of these, and devastating if we lost both...  That seems EXTREMELY unlikely.  So for the first time in ages, I am a buyer.

I feel like I'm looking at a different chart than you. This is the 1 month chart. It looks like trying to catch and falling knife, especially given 2021 has been a crypto bull market.



Making a new local low will be devastating for price, and personally I'm surprised as well there hasn't been a bounce from current prices, but it is what it is it seems. Personally I still think FED are scooping up a lot of these coins from dark-web busts, where a lot of liquidity is, then dumping for USD or even BTC. Monero still has enough use case, so it's surprising to see it down for the year.

In fairness we've also seen this in the BTC price of Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and others that were popular 2017 coins. If price bounces back to that long-term resistance trend-line, I'll be reducing exposure that's for sure.

We are looking at different charts!  Mine covers a year~  and your the lifetime of Monero.

[dragonvslinux]

I feel like I'm looking at a different chart than you. This is the 1 month chart.

We are looking at different charts!  Mine covers a year~  and your the lifetime of Monero.

I genuinely meant a different pairing, as your chart still gives some room for hope (the Daily I assume?), whereas the monthly looks awful.
Even the Weekly looks like it's got a chance of bouncing, at least as a dead cat, as long as the bullish divergence holds:



Arguably that bull div did play out already earlier in the year, so not convinced it still counts, but bouncing from here would confirm hidden bull div at least.
Never been a fan of double bottom reversals though, the "quadruple bottom" back in 2020 didn't hold up either in the end...

[tokeweed]

Is there some kind of segwit for monero by the way? Or would that ruin privacy?

"SegWit fixed an issue called transaction malleability, which enabled BTC transaction data to be changed before the network processed these transactions."

Why would Monero want to fix something that is not and never was broken?

I'm so disappointed. This has been one of my favorite coins for years, and everytime I buy it because it seems relatively low compared to the rest of the market.

It has pretty much agreed that Monero has been suffering an attack from centralized exchanges issuing naked shorts and creating paper Monero in a fractional reserve capacity thereby selling shorters Monero that just doesn't exist in order to suppress the price and drive people away. This has been proven by the fact large exchanges have frozen withdrawals due to "liquidity issues" which would only happen in a fractional reserve system.

If you want to hold Monero you should expect TPTB to continue to attack the system until they can either find a way to manipulate it to their advantage or concede (which those in power NEVER do).

So with all that being said, If you are just a NGU fanboi then this is not the coin for you as it is a down and dirty trench fight.

BTC is held in high regard by the banking community now so if all you want is NGU then that is the place for you. Stay clear of shitcoins.

Monero for money and bitcoin for wealth storage and you will win long term.

Has that really been proven?  Which exchanges are we talking about?  Cos it looks to me like Monero just didn’t gain enough traction as everybody has hoped and has just fallen out of favor with most people wanting to buy those shiny new coins they can do stuff with.

I mean let’s face it, most people see XMR and would think it’s just like BTC with privacy stuff.

Edit:  And my favorite book FJ will stop accepting XMR. 

[Keremgor]

 i think there is no room for both grin,monero and zcash.. one of them can survive with btc.

 The others will eventually lose value to BTC pairing until forgotten and dust.

[tokeweed]

^  I don’t know about you but Monero has some of the best people working on it.  It may stagnate in market cap but Monero isn’t going away.  We all know all that growth in most of crypto is nothing but mostly fake value supported by a community of people who are scamming themselves.

I’m pretty sure some of BTC’s use cases will transfer to XMR.  It’s starting at DNM’s.

[aces777]

AT this point XMR feels like proof that TA rarely works. So many TA'ers have shown big moves on XMR, yet it barely does anything and just goes down with Bitcoin and ethereum, but not upwards.

But I still believe in it, surely the vast majority of weak hands are out by now.

[Millionero]

Maybe XMR is not treated as a store of value? 
Meaning XMR is spent, not HODLed.
Whereas with BTC it's the other way round.   BTC is HODLed, not spent.

[exoticweiner]

AT this point XMR feels like proof that TA rarely works. So many TA'ers have shown big moves on XMR, yet it barely does anything and just goes down with Bitcoin and ethereum, but not upwards.

But I still believe in it, surely the vast majority of weak hands are out by now.

XMR being stable is good for markets, especially for those that are buying and selling illegal goods. It's also relatively removed from the hype surrounding coins like BTC and DOGE for example, so it is similarly removed from big moves. I'd take this time to accumulate as much as possible, it's a buyer's market right now

[tokeweed]

AT this point XMR feels like proof that TA rarely works. So many TA'ers have shown big moves on XMR, yet it barely does anything and just goes down with Bitcoin and ethereum, but not upwards.

But I still believe in it, surely the vast majority of weak hands are out by now.

Rofl wtf?  What does TA have to do with XMR’s poor, lagging performance in the market.  It’s not the TA but the people behind the TA.  You really can’t trust anybody online for their own analysis cos you never know, they’re prolly just shilling their wares cos you know...  A lot of people at this stage of the market are out of cash so a lot of them prolly want you to come in with your cash.  And it’s not something specific itt and I’m not accusing anybody itt, it’s everywhere.

[Keremgor]

Maybe XMR is not treated as a store of value?  
Meaning XMR is spent, not HODLed.
Whereas with BTC it's the other way round.   BTC is HODLed, not spent.

Btc is not spent? go and check transaction volume. yes there is majority hodl but billions daily volume. xmr volume rises too,but price is lagging like ltc. Zcash is worse than monero. There is a ignorance from average users,who chase shittokens,metaverse defi ,nft hype. How can shib erctoken can be 5x multiply of Monero? Absurd irregular market. And it is same since 2019. That didnt change.

[tokeweed]

^  Transaction volume is not indicative if BTC is actually being spent or not.  It could mostly be going in and out of exchanges.  And if you check the mempool out, it’s pretty much almost empty most of the time lately.  You could send a transaction with just around 1 - 3 sats.

And replying to Millionero’s post, maybe there’s just not enough interest in XMR...  -_-

[cAPSLOCK]

Complete and total utter lack of awareness.

I would LOVE to be wrong.



The thing is this type of thing begins to appear adversarial.  And Monero is lost in the choir of "But XRP", "But Polkadot!'

[Hueristic]

Well well, spikey spikey.

Been awhile.

Maybe supply pressure is finally kicking in?

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON IS BACK FOR YOUR READING PLEASURE! Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-25-fb5f4fd78cb

[Hueristic]

Well, not for nothing but we caught a Golden Cross today guys.

ADDED:

You TA guys wanna explain to me what this mean on low volume?

All I can find is something that says there is a buying attempt without available assets to fill.