[XMR] Monero Speculation

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 37) IS OUT NOW!

Grab a coffee or a beer and kick back for a read.

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-37

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[cAPSLOCK]

Well... seems a lot of alts are popping a little bit.  But would you look at Monero?  It looks like one of the strongest of the bunch.

Seems to me the resistance will be at 0.0054?


Looking good in BTC and USD right now...

[Hueristic]

I've always been a bitcoin and Monero bull but have always thought of BTC as being the store of value for the ngu tech but it seems like we may be hitting a point where the tweeters are realizing Moneros value and we may see the value proposition sooner rather than later.

IOW I think the next few months are critical.

@Caps..Hope your weathering the coof reasonably, being vaxed helped me alot imo. <<<--- not gonna post this in wo as don't need to hear the insane asylum lose their shit.

[cAPSLOCK]

I've always been a bitcoin and Monero bull but have always thought of BTC as being the store of value for the ngu tech but it seems like we may be hitting a point where the tweeters are realizing Moneros value and we may see the value proposition sooner rather than later.

IOW I think the next few months are critical.

Could not agree more with this.

Hard to say if it happens or not.  But as a Bitcoin maxi who saw Monero as singularly unique this is the exact moment I have been waiting to see for 6 years.  Or at least it looks like the beginning of that.  Where Monero might decouple and run because of it's unique value prop.

There was a reason that between 2014-2016 THIS topic was one of the most active threads on this whole place.  And that reason was driven by the fact that a great deal of Bitcoinners saw what we saw.  That this alt coin was kind of special.

I concede that it was a alt romance like most any of them... A narrative that challenges BTC, or offers something seemingly of value.  But I hold TO THIS DAY that this narrative has only gotten stronger over the time while the others have paled.  ETH?  Is already collapsing under it's own weight.  It will be around forever probably, a playground at the edges where good ideas are worked out, and then pinned to BTC. 

But there is no way for Bitcoin to do what Monero does yet.  And it will take YEARS for Bitcoin to catch up in this regard. If it even can!

The same thing that lit this alt up back in those early days for US is going to happen with the masses too.  The herd is HERE for Bitcoin... but most of it is yet to come for Montango.

@Caps..Hope your weathering the coof reasonably, being vaxed helped me alot imo. <<<--- not gonna post this in wo as don't need to hear the insane asylum lose their shit.

Ha!  Thanks man, yes.  Just a bad sore throat, and feeling pitiful having to isolate from my wife.  

I was "double vaxxed" But it's been a good amount of time now...  First was in Feb 20 and the second ~ May or so?

Can't say whether my experience would have been better or worse another way.  Too subjective I guess.  But i *HAVE* avoided the damn thing since at least 3/2020.  From what I have read, and come to understand this may be the best of all worlds...  Hopefully my immunity will be as strong as it can be after this. I tend to see this whole circus with a great deal of nuance.  Which I feel is horribly missing from most folks who pick a side and reinforce their biases to f1it their story. 

And it is sad that the WO has gotten so out of hand.  It's like all of us having to have a decent conversation of the insane babbling of a few people lol.

[smooth]

And it is sad that the WO has gotten so out of hand.

I'm trying to remember when it wasn't.

I've got nothing.

[cAPSLOCK]

And it is sad that the WO has gotten so out of hand.

I'm trying to remember when it wasn't.

I've got nothing.

Lol.  You might have a point.

[tokeweed]

Ffs guys just start being real to yourselves.  XMR is what most people think BTC really is supposed to be.  And it's not just that, there are flaws in BTC that maxis won't ever question...  Like the dwindling mining incentives after every halving.  We really can't expect BTC to run on just the fees for how many transactions per block.

Back to XMR, it's extremely undervalued IMHO as it does something very useful unlike 90% of crypto.  That's why it's so frustrating that it ain't even in the top 20 or the top 10 where it should belong.  But then I guess in way it's better to be away from the spotlight as much as possible.  Again my hot take:  XMR will rise in CMC during the bear market.  

[BlackHatCoiner]

I still don't understand your way of thinking, though. You say that Bitcoin covers the SoV part, but Monero is much better as a MoE. What's the purpose of storing value in Bitcoin if it's not used as MoE? That's its only purpose.

[cAPSLOCK]

Ffs guys just start being real to yourselves.  XMR is what most people think BTC really is supposed to be.  And it's not just that, there are flaws in BTC that maxis won't ever question...  Like dwindling mining incentives after every halving.  We really can't expect BTC to run on just the fees for how transactions per block.

I see more nuance here than you, I think.

Bitcoin's transparency is a feature and a bug.  And I think that we will see improvements to privacy on the base layer as well as transactional layers.

As to the fees complaint.  If the bitcoin base layer begins to act like the settlement layer then I see no problem with it continuing to attract miners for decades.

Currently the Block subsidy is ~265k USD worth.  @265000/2500.  Fees per transaction would only have to reach around a hundred bucks to replace that.  That is totally doable in my opinion.

Because Bitcoin is optimizing for SECURITY and not cheapness of fees, then we WILL see fees rise.  Naturally.  And since it is aiming to do other functions (like simple transactions) on layers then we will still be able to buy coffee with it, etc.

At a glance, I agree it seems counterintuitive for Bitcoin not to continue to work the way it has since the beginning...  even Satoshi said he thought we could keep fees at zero for a long time but something HAS to give.  And the way we are headed fees will go up.  This is to keep the base layer distributed as well as possible.

Monero on the other hand... the contributors have positioned it to be a low fee transactional chain so fees may not go up.  It's a bit of a catch 22 actually.  Monero, if transactions continue to grow along side bitcoin, will end up much more centralized than Bitcoin. as running nodes will become more and more difficult as we go forward.  Monero has chosen to risk some centralization  to keep fees low.

I do not see this as an X or Y scenario.  Rather I believe Monero will work along side Bitcoin.  And POSSIBLY even be Bitcoins defacto privacy layer.  Hard to say.

[sech1]

Because Bitcoin is optimizing for SECURITY and not cheapness of fees, then we WILL see fees rise.  Naturally.

And we WILL see everyone in BTC migrating to Lightning or even to other coins like Monero Who would pay $100 fees?

[Hueristic]

Who would pay $100 fees?

Only banks.

[cAPSLOCK]

Because Bitcoin is optimizing for SECURITY and not cheapness of fees, then we WILL see fees rise.  Naturally.

And we WILL see everyone in BTC migrating to Lightning or even to other coins like Monero Who would pay $100 fees?

No one goes there anymore, its always busy - Yogi Berra

[cAPSLOCK]

Cup and handle formations have been some of my favorite indicators in the past few years, particularly with Monero.  This is largely in part because they are typically accurate, and play out.

Well Since I have covid I have been spending some time during my misery playing with charts.

Gentlemen.

If this one play out... Boy oh boy.  And I think that since this is based on the XMRUSD chart then that implies a little influence via BTC.  This is one of those perfect storm type things that if it plays out... well look at this:



What I do not have is the right kind of chart here to measure how far up it might go.  But my back of the napkin sort of math says this...  If it can do the 2x needed to complete the handle (from here, roughly) then we havea cup stretching from ~$40 to $520.  That is a 13x.  So a 13x from $520?  $6760.

That means in this overly bullish scenario that we could see a rocket of nearly 30x from where we are right now.

Wow.  And sorry for jinxing it!


Edit!  I went searching for some extra premium conformation bias fuel on trading view and found this "Don Yakka" fellow.  He seems to have seen the same thing I am seeing, but with better squigglies, AND he's projecting further up into the 8k range!  So there's that!



Also you can load some more candles and see the price breaking out of that downward wedge he has on the handle:

[cAPSLOCK]

I don't want this post to be combined with the last one.  So I am starting a new one.  But I assume it will still get combined.

I have been looking at the areas of interest between here and 500 USD.


Looks like they are coming in at ~:

250
275
300
350

Plus/Minus a little.  

But after 350 there's very little gonna hold us back.

What's it gonna feel like if we make it back into that open sky.

Next I am gonna do some analysis of the BTCXMR pair.  So someone post something to make fun of THIS post so I can make that it's own post too!

[tokeweed]

Ffs guys just start being real to yourselves.  XMR is what most people think BTC really is supposed to be.  And it's not just that, there are flaws in BTC that maxis won't ever question...  Like dwindling mining incentives after every halving.  We really can't expect BTC to run on just the fees for how transactions per block.

I see more nuance here than you, I think.

Bitcoin's transparency is a feature and a bug.  And I think that we will see improvements to privacy on the base layer as well as transactional layers.

As to the fees complaint.  If the bitcoin base layer begins to act like the settlement layer then I see no problem with it continuing to attract miners for decades.

Currently the Block subsidy is ~265k USD worth.  @265000/2500.  Fees per transaction would only have to reach around a hundred bucks to replace that.  That is totally doable in my opinion.

Because Bitcoin is optimizing for SECURITY and not cheapness of fees, then we WILL see fees rise.  Naturally.  And since it is aiming to do other functions (like simple transactions) on layers then we will still be able to buy coffee with it, etc.

At a glance, I agree it seems counterintuitive for Bitcoin not to continue to work the way it has since the beginning...  even Satoshi said he thought we could keep fees at zero for a long time but something HAS to give.  And the way we are headed fees will go up.  This is to keep the base layer distributed as well as possible.

Monero on the other hand... the contributors have positioned it to be a low fee transactional chain so fees may not go up.  It's a bit of a catch 22 actually.  Monero, if transactions continue to grow along side bitcoin, will end up much more centralized than Bitcoin. as running nodes will become more and more difficult as we go forward.  Monero has chosen to risk some centralization  to keep fees low.

I do not see this as an X or Y scenario.  Rather I believe Monero will work along side Bitcoin.  And POSSIBLY even be Bitcoins defacto privacy layer.  Hard to say.

It's more looking like a bug for the most serious use cases.  IMHO.  And I don't get what you mean when you say 'base layer' and 'settlement layer'..  Are you talking about L1?

And it's not 'we'll see fees rise naturally'.  It's more like the fees will need to rise, naturally or artificially to keep the whole thing going.  If not, number go up stops.  But yeah, it will be an interesting couple of years going to the next halving.

[Dinda mayasi]

In my opinion, the next Monero Coin is still good with a price that is not much different from last year. Today, Monero is still priced at over $300. Today's price is down 4% due to some popular coins also dropping. I saw last night the market turned red from BTC and others. That's reasonable, and hopefully until the end of the year Monero prices will continue to be stable in the market.

[Hueristic]

In my opinion, the next Monero Coin is still good with a price that is not much different from last year. Today, Monero is still priced at over $300. Today's price is down 4% due to some popular coins also dropping. I saw last night the market turned red from BTC and others. That's reasonable, and hopefully until the end of the year Monero prices will continue to be stable in the market.

What are you spamming garbage for a sig campaign?

[cAPSLOCK]

In my opinion, the next Monero Coin is still good with a price that is not much different from last year. Today, Monero is still priced at over $300. Today's price is down 4% due to some popular coins also dropping. I saw last night the market turned red from BTC and others. That's reasonable, and hopefully until the end of the year Monero prices will continue to be stable in the market.

What are you spamming garbage for a sig campaign?

Good grief if it made any LESS sense it would be entirely random.  And yet there are enough relevant nouns in it to know that whatever algorithm produced it was tuned in SLIGHTLY to this thread.

Odd.

[tokeweed]

Looking at the price action, I feel like there's huge money behind Monero right now.  And I don't mean spot but derivatives.  I think open interest for XMR hasn't reached these levels before.  I mean it's not really that high but it's +33% at Binance today, +98% at Okex, up 76% at Kraken..  Hmmm...  I feel like we could we see 1k soon?

https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest

[Hueristic]

Volume picking up recently.