[XMR] Monero Speculation

[johnfoss]

I wrote about this on Twitter and in the latest issue of the Monero Moon, but thought it is such a prominent chart I'd share it here.

After 4 years of Monero down-trending against Bitcoin, XMR has finally broken out upwards, and is looking like it will close the month out above resistance.

This is a rare and unprecedented event for any cryptocurrency to break out from such a long downtrend on the BTC pair, and as far as I’m aware has never happened before.

The last time XMR broke out of a long-term (22 month) downtrend against BTC was Feb 2016, before rallying 2600% against Bitcoin.

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[1715696424]

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[Hueristic]

I wrote about this on Twitter and in the latest issue of the Monero Moon, but thought it is such a prominent chart I'd share it here.

After 4 years of Monero down-trending against Bitcoin, XMR has finally broken out upwards, and is looking like it will close the month out above resistance.

This is a rare and unprecedented event for any cryptocurrency to break out from such a long downtrend on the BTC pair, and as far as I’m aware has never happened before.

The last time XMR broke out of a long-term (22 month) downtrend against BTC was Feb 2016, before rallying 2600% against Bitcoin.

XMR has broken out of the 4+ year downtrend...

Appreciate it but infofront beat you to it earlier this page.


BTW, really enjoyed the Moon this week.

[cAPSLOCK]

I wrote about this on Twitter and in the latest issue of the Monero Moon, but thought it is such a prominent chart I'd share it here.

After 4 years of Monero down-trending against Bitcoin, XMR has finally broken out upwards, and is looking like it will close the month out above resistance.

This is a rare and unprecedented event for any cryptocurrency to break out from such a long downtrend on the BTC pair, and as far as I’m aware has never happened before.

The last time XMR broke out of a long-term (22 month) downtrend against BTC was Feb 2016, before rallying 2600% against Bitcoin.

I remember how downcast so many were even 4 years ago... 

After the 2017 bull, and brief altseason we have all been crushed so badly.  It is understandable that many lost hope.  After all, most alts are absolute garbage.  Most have deserved the 90+% losses, and the ones that have remained closer to the top have NOT deserved to be there.  The only caveat is their demise might bring some pain to all the alts... even the ... well fuck it. I honestly think there is only one that deserves attention.

That said 290-330 is the last stand of the shitcoin levels.  If it can take all that?  Well.  It's just open skies above that, I think.  And I do not think it has to stay under it's XMR/BTC ath either.  I see it having a good chance of attacking as far as .09 BTC if not the whole .1

[Hueristic]

I remember how downcast so many were even 4 years ago... 

After the 2017 bull, and brief altseason we have all been crushed so badly.  It is understandable that many lost hope.  After all, most alts are absolute garbage.  Most have deserved the 90+% losses, and the ones that have remained closer to the top have NOT deserved to be there.  The only caveat is their demise might bring some pain to all the alts... even the ... well fuck it. I honestly think there is only one that deserves attention.

That said 290-330 is the last stand of the shitcoin levels.  If it can take all that?  Well.  It's just open skies above that, I think.  And I do not think it has to stay under it's XMR/BTC ath either.  I see it having a good chance of attacking as far as .09 BTC if not the whole .1

Historically .0082 should be the next major hurdle.

[phishead]

I remember how downcast so many were even 4 years ago...  

After the 2017 bull, and brief altseason we have all been crushed so badly.  It is understandable that many lost hope.  After all, most alts are absolute garbage.  Most have deserved the 90+% losses, and the ones that have remained closer to the top have NOT deserved to be there.  The only caveat is their demise might bring some pain to all the alts... even the ... well fuck it. I honestly think there is only one that deserves attention.

That said 290-330 is the last stand of the shitcoin levels.  If it can take all that?  Well.  It's just open skies above that, I think.  And I do not think it has to stay under it's XMR/BTC ath either.  I see it having a good chance of attacking as far as .09 BTC if not the whole .1

Historically .0082 should be the next major hurdle.

I’ve always thought about it this way. With what Monero does there is no reason for Monero to be worth less than 1% of Bitcoins worth. These prices haven’t made sense for a long time, so all the hurdles we see below 0.01 is arbitrary.

But also there have been a few accounts, and one in particular that just went off the deep end acting like absolute assholes. Personally I was a bit offended when after letting the board know I had just tested positive for covid this asshole started going on about how stupid we are to believe it was real more or less.  I don;t have very much bandwidth for people who cannot have a little nuance.  I am actually in the camp that thinks we severely over-reacted to covid, and that the vaccines were at best duds.  But I have compassion for folks going through it.  I know people who have died from it, and anyway... yeah mainly one asshole.

To have your belief, whether right or wrong, make you act like a dick to another human for believing something else is just dumb. People are entitled to their own beliefs. Sorry, those people sound like the worst lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

I remember how downcast so many were even 4 years ago... 

After the 2017 bull, and brief altseason we have all been crushed so badly.  It is understandable that many lost hope.  After all, most alts are absolute garbage.  Most have deserved the 90+% losses, and the ones that have remained closer to the top have NOT deserved to be there.  The only caveat is their demise might bring some pain to all the alts... even the ... well fuck it. I honestly think there is only one that deserves attention.

That said 290-330 is the last stand of the shitcoin levels.  If it can take all that?  Well.  It's just open skies above that, I think.  And I do not think it has to stay under it's XMR/BTC ath either.  I see it having a good chance of attacking as far as .09 BTC if not the whole .1

Historically .0082 should be the next major hurdle.

Agree... that one has some history, and ~.0092 might be a minor speed bump on the way back to .01.  I thin Monero deserves to be back up at least part of the way to it's BTC ATH.  And based on it's fundamental values as much as 2-3x that amount eventually.  That is my hyper bull scenario, I guess.

But right now we need to hold this general USD value.  Seems like a breather in BTC and XMR here.  As we go into the weekend I could see it do this kind of repetition:

[cAPSLOCK]

Resolution imminent.  



Edit next morning-

Resolution complete.


To the old timers:  Is it just me or has Monero often seemed to want to do this against a weak BTC backdrop over the years.

[cAPSLOCK]

A little Elliot wave possibility?

[Hueristic]

To the old timers:  Is it just me or has Monero often seemed to want to do this against a weak BTC backdrop over the years.

It used to until the naked shorting.

[cAPSLOCK]

To the old timers:  Is it just me or has Monero often seemed to want to do this against a weak BTC backdrop over the years.

It used to until the naked shorting.

Yeah.  I think you're right.

You know... It kinda stinks.  Retail is just not going to organize enough to do the very simple thing that is needed to punish the exchanges.  And I suppose if they did it would just shut one or two of them down for Monero.

I *think* if we really could get all the retail traders and "investors" to take custody of their coins it could have an amazing effect on the value of the coin.  Really this is just as true for Bitcoin.  But the effect would be much more extreme with Monero.  The exchanges would be forced to buy shit-tons to cover what they would need to honor the withdrawals, AND the short squeeze could be magnificent.

I have often thought if it was done well it would dwarf the Gamestonk move.  Basically the same thing, but imagine how hard Monero would move.  If the exchanges were not able to operate dishonestly it could absolutely CRUSH one or two of them.

But there are just too many folks who don't give a shit, and are just leaving their coins in the custody of the exchanges... and blah blah blah.

Frustrates me.  Not because I want the price to go up (which obviously I have nothing against).  But because the people buying monero do not even understand what they have.

My Monero has NEVER been on an exchange more that 45 seconds past when I bought it.  Sometimes for fun I look at my old wallet from a million years ago and look at all the dpepasits and w/ds just for memory lane.

And I have mineed over the years..  That Monero has never even touched a fucking exchange.

Not that it matters at all... it's exactly the same as what is sitting in Exchange wallets.  Lol.

Anyway.  I do still think we can keep this going in the right direction.  In a way if the world keedps burning down, and exchanges get less and less honest...  It will do it all on it's own.

One last thing.  Is it not amazing screwed up that Tradeogre is probably the most honest exchange of the whole bunch at this moment...  kudos, in case you read this thread.

[sech1]

because the people buying monero do not even understand what they have.

Any solution for this? How to reach these people and educate them? Where do they come from? Twitter, Tiktok, random crypto discords?

[cAPSLOCK]

because the people buying monero do not even understand what they have.

Any solution for this? How to reach these people and educate them? Where do they come from? Twitter, Tiktok, random crypto discords?

Well.  I made a very black and white statement, and I think it's a matter of degrees like everything in life.  There are all kinds of people buying Monero.  LOTS of them just want to make a quick buck.  They saw some youtube video that hypes Monero for one reason or another and so they went to Kraken or Binance and bought a little bag and left it there on the exchange with the rest of their shitcoins.  And they wait hoping that one of them will turn out to be "the next Bitcoin".

Maybe they know Monero's reputation as the "Pravacy coin".  But just like all the people with "their" Bitcoin in "their" Coinbase wallet. They think of "crypto" as a riskier new techno version of stocks.

And so you have this little core of toxic bitcoinners running around saying NYKNYC etc, but the vast majority of people have not figured out what self custody is important, and why it's even moreso with Monero since BEACUSE so few are taking custody of it the exchanges can sell their reserves (that the hold on behalf of their customers) short, or loan those monero to others to sell.  And on top of that they can sell a predictable safe percentage of their customers Monero on paper only since they know they will never have to ship anything.

I do not see any easy way to get enough people to understand this for it to matter a lot.  I think it's astonishing the little grounswell that the monerun caused.  Imagine if it really started taking hold.  With the majority of the customers.  THEN we would see something.

[BlackHatCoiner]

I do not see any easy way to get enough people to understand this for it to matter a lot.

Perhaps by understanding the purpose of bitcoin first, which is far more discussed, worked and therefore has more educating content. People can't just jump from not acknowledging the significance of self-custody to buying XMR.

They have to firstly understand what's bitcoin, why is it important, why shouldn't the people use centralized exchanges, how transactions look like, what does it mean to run your own full node, what's chain analysis etc.

[cAPSLOCK]

I do not see any easy way to get enough people to understand this for it to matter a lot.

Perhaps by understanding the purpose of bitcoin first, which is far more discussed, worked and therefore has more educating content. People can't just jump from not acknowledging the significance of self-custody to buying XMR.

They have to firstly understand what's bitcoin, why is it important, why shouldn't the people use centralized exchanges, how transactions look like, what does it mean to run your own full node, what's chain analysis etc.

I think so.  And I thin little by little this will happen naturally.  I just don't see any way to really accelerate the process all that much.

As to speculation.  I see us likely bouncing off 6.



Ugly.  But a cooling off is in the cards.  Bitcoin looks awful right now too.  We will see!

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 40) IS OUT NOW!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-40

[tokeweed]

I do not see any easy way to get enough people to understand this for it to matter a lot.

Perhaps by understanding the purpose of bitcoin first, which is far more discussed, worked and therefore has more educating content. People can't just jump from not acknowledging the significance of self-custody to buying XMR.

They have to firstly understand what's bitcoin, why is it important, why shouldn't the people use centralized exchanges, how transactions look like, what does it mean to run your own full node, what's chain analysis etc.

I think so.  And I thin little by little this will happen naturally.  I just don't see any way to really accelerate the process all that much.

As to speculation.  I see us likely bouncing off 6.



Ugly.  But a cooling off is in the cards.  Bitcoin looks awful right now too.  We will see!

As expected...  But here's the thing, open interest in XMR perps is a tad more than double compared to its May 2021 highs.

You guys can check it out here:  https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest

Binance leads the way followed by newcomer FTX then OKex then a few other exchanges.  And I think the accusation that Binance is doing some sort of naked shorting on XMR is wrong.  They could do it 'legally' through perps and won't have any repercussions.  No need to sell coins they don't have. 

[Hueristic]

As expected...  But here's the thing, open interest in XMR perps is a tad more than double compared to its May 2021 highs.

You guys can check it out here:  https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest

Binance leads the way followed by newcomer FTX then OKex then a few other exchanges.  And I think the accusation that Binance is doing some sort of naked shorting on XMR is wrong.  They could do it 'legally' through perps and won't have any repercussions.  No need to sell coins they don't have. 

I think your high.

[Hueristic]

I texted this too my buddy that I've been trying to get into bitcoin for a decade, he own land in panama.



This was the conversation.




I haven't even mentioned Monero to him as I still can't get him into bitcoin.

[bct_ail]

I haven't even mentioned Monero to him as I still can't get him into bitcoin.

Ha Ha. But he got the message pretty quickly. First he mentioned shitcoin and then Monero. That is quite a fast learning curve.
And the other thing with Bitcoin.... he will also understand soon.

[tokeweed]

As expected...  But here's the thing, open interest in XMR perps is a tad more than double compared to its May 2021 highs.

You guys can check it out here:  https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest

Binance leads the way followed by newcomer FTX then OKex then a few other exchanges.  And I think the accusation that Binance is doing some sort of naked shorting on XMR is wrong.  They could do it 'legally' through perps and won't have any repercussions.  No need to sell coins they don't have.  

I think your high.

Lol.  Not as high as those people who actually think that Binance is naked shorting XMR, that's for sure.  That's the thing with perps, Binance or some other exchange don't really need to 'naked short' anything anymore.  All they can do is short the perps with leverage and push the price down in spot.  And it's easily done with how much liquidity Binance controls and how mostly low XMR's overall liquidity is